Electoral Competition Research Articles

Political party offers of representation for minority voters: advertising in Chinese-language newspapers in New Zealand

For reasons of both electoral competitiveness and democratic legitimacy, political parties in diverse democracies increasingly compete for the votes of immigrant and ethnic minority voters. A considerable literature has examined the effects of electoral advertising on the partisanship and turnout of targeted groups. Little attention has been given, however, to the nature of the representational offers contained in advertising that targets ethnic minorities. Do party advertisements offer descriptive representation, by featuring ethnic candidates? Do they offer geographic representation, by focusing on districts where ethnic minorities live? Do they offer to represent ethnic minorities’ specific interests or experiences? Where ethnic minorities are internally diverse, what efforts do parties make to address such diversity in their advertising? How parties answer these questions affects the scope and inclusivity of the representational offers extended to ethnic minority voters, with consequences for their political inclusion and representation. We examine how these questions have been answered in New Zealand, a country characterised by high rates of inward migration and the enfranchisement of resident non-citizens. Using data from a novel study of New Zealand political parties’ election advertisements targeting Chinese voters, we assess the quantity and character of representational offers made to this internally diverse minority group. Our findings suggest that, even as the main political parties are increasingly making specific representational offers to Chinese New Zealanders, these offers vary across the political spectrum in their quantity, scope and inclusiveness.

Policy polarization, primaries, and strategic voters

We consider two-stage electoral competitions with strategic voters, investigating the effects of valence (i.e., a candidate’s personal quality) on policy polarization. In our model, two parties compete in a general election, and each party has two office-seeking candidates. Parties first hold a primary election to decide their representative, and then put forward their winning candidate to compete in the general election. Candidates are thus characterized by their promised policy and their valence. Although voters value policies differently, they value valence uniformly. We focus on a competitive regime pure strategy Nash equilibrium where the candidate with the highest valence does not necessarily win the general election. We provide the sufficient conditions under which such an equilibrium exists, as well as a novel comparative static analysis of the valence differences between candidates (or the valence advantage). Our findings demonstrate that changing the valence advantage in general and primary elections can pose differing implications for policy outcomes and policy polarization.

Electoral Competition in the Age of Social Media: The Role of Social Media Influencers

Social media—and, in particular, social media influencers—are playing an increasingly central role in shaping public opinion on a variety of issues. The political sphere is no exception. In response to the impact that social media influencers have on citizens’ political views and voting behaviors, political parties adapt their messages and policies during election campaigns. Media outlets, too, faced with competition for readership from social media, are adjusting their news coverage. To analyze the nature and extent of the impact of social media on parties’ policies, media outlets’ news reports, and citizens’ opinions, we used a game theoretical model of electoral competition involving four key stakeholders—citizens, political parties, media outlets, and social media influencers. Our results show that with social media, parties’ policy positions become more moderate while media outlets’ editorial positions become more extreme. We also show that citizens’ opinions may become more polarized when the influencers’ true editorial positions are more homogeneous as a result of increased information distortion.

獨裁國家之下的權力個人化統治與社會福利支出：跨國資料分析

傳統觀點認為，因為選舉競爭促使民主國家領導人採取社會政策以爭取公民政治支持，所以民主國家比獨裁國家具有更多福利支出。然而，由於獨裁國家沒有選舉、或其選舉並不自由和／或不公平，因此本文的研究問題是：獨裁者與其盟友之間的權力分布如何影響福利支出？本文基於晚近發展的權力分享理論，討論權力分享結構對於威權國家福利支出的影響。當權力個人化統治程度較低，獨裁者面臨被其他精英取代的風險。我們認為，獨裁者藉由福利政策向公民分配資源，換取公民政治支持。當權力更集中於獨裁者，增加權力個人化統治將減少福利支出。我們使用1961年至2006年90個獨裁國家時間序列橫斷面資料檢驗我們論點。我們發現，總福利支出隨著獨裁者權力個人化統治的增加而減少。這種影響在不同模型設定中皆相當穩健。此一發現有助於理解獨裁國家權力個人化統治與福利支出間的聯繫。本文貢獻在於指出福利支出不僅由文獻認為的政權領導人需要公眾支持所決定，在獨裁國家中也是由其統治聯盟內部權力分布所決定。Conventional wisdom posits that democracies have more social welfare expenditure than dictatorships because electoral competition induces democratic leaders to adopt social policies in exchange for ordinary citizens’ political support. However, as elections are absent, unfree, and/or unfair in autocracies, the research question in this paper is: How does the distribution of power between dictators and their allies influence welfare spending? This paper discusses the power-sharing structure’s impact on welfare spending based on the theory of power-sharing in authoritarian regimes. When power is less personalized, dictators face the risk of being replaced by other elites. We argue that dictators allocate resources to citizens through welfare policies in exchange for their political support. Increasing personalism rules will reduce welfare spending when power is concentrated on dictators. We test our arguments using time-series cross-sectional data for 90 dictatorships from 1961 to 2006. We find that total welfare spending decreases as the personalization of power of the dictator increases. This effect is robust to different model specifications. This finding helps us to understand the connection between the personalization of power and welfare spending in dictatorships. This paper contributes to the literature by showing that welfare spending is determined by regime leaders’ need for public support as the conventional wisdom suggests, and by the power dynamics within their ruling coalitions in dictatorships.

Promoting data harmonization to evaluate vaccine hesitancy in LMICs: approach and applications

BackgroundFactors influencing the health of populations are subjects of interdisciplinary study. However, datasets relevant to public health often lack interdisciplinary breath. It is difficult to combine data on health outcomes with datasets on potentially important contextual factors, like political violence or development, due to incompatible levels of geographic support; differing data formats and structures; differences in sampling procedures and wording; and the stability of temporal trends. We present a computational package to combine spatially misaligned datasets, and provide an illustrative analysis of multi-dimensional factors in health outcomes.MethodsWe rely on a new software toolkit, Sub-National Geospatial Data Archive (SUNGEO), to combine data across disciplinary domains and demonstrate a use case on vaccine hesitancy in Low and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs). We use data from the World Bank’s High Frequency Phone Surveys (HFPS) from Kenya, Indonesia, and Malawi. We curate and combine these surveys with data on political violence, elections, economic development, and other contextual factors, using SUNGEO. We then develop a stochastic model to analyze the integrated data and evaluate 1) the stability of vaccination preferences in all three countries over time, and 2) the association between local contextual factors and vaccination preferences.ResultsIn all three countries, vaccine-acceptance is more persistent than vaccine-hesitancy from round to round: the long-run probability of staying vaccine-acceptant (hesitant) was 0.96 (0.65) in Indonesia, 0.89 (0.21) in Kenya, and 0.76 (0.40) in Malawi. However, vaccine acceptance was significantly less durable in areas exposed to political violence, with percentage point differences (ppd) in vaccine acceptance of -10 (Indonesia), -5 (Kenya), and -64 (Malawi). In Indonesia and Kenya, although not Malawi, vaccine acceptance was also significantly less durable in locations without competitive elections (-19 and -6 ppd, respectively) and in locations with more limited transportation infrastructure (-11 and -8 ppd).ConclusionWith SUNGEO, researchers can combine spatially misaligned and incompatible datasets. As an illustrative example, we find that vaccination hesitancy is correlated with political violence, electoral uncompetitiveness and limited access to public goods, consistent with past results that vaccination hesitancy is associated with government distrust.

The Indigenous Rights Challenge to Common and Equal Citizenship in the ‘New’ Fiji

ABSTRACT For most of its postcolonial history, Fiji’s government was under iTaukei (Indigenous Fijian) control, viewed by iTaukei as the guardian of their status and rights. However, iTaukei-headed governments from the military coup in 2006 until the parliament elections in 2022 undertook modernizing reforms that emphasized equality and enjoyed predominantly Indo-Fijian support. Central in the governing political party’s manifesto from the resumption of elections in 2014 was the new constitutional principle of ‘common and equal citizenry’. Electoral competition and parliamentary debate under the 2013 Constitution have been marked by protests against the removal of much of the institutional support for Indigenous group rights that existed in Fiji’s political system until the 2006 coup. The December 2022 elections brought a new government by a coalition of parties led and supported mainly by Indigenous Fijians. Its agenda includes a promise to redress the weakening of Indigenous status and rights under Bainimarama’s rule.

Well-Behaved Women: Engendering Political Interest in Public Opinion Research

Women form a large part of the voting public in India. In the 2009 Indian National Election post-election survey, 82% of all adult women surveyed reported voting, but only 32% said that they were interested in politics. The paradox between high female turnout but low levels of interest has been noted in multiple developing country contexts, but the phenomenon is under-theorized. We suggest the reason is that women’s ideas (interest in politics) are discouraged and suppressed by societal patriarchal norms enforced in the household, but women’s bodies (their votes) are valued in competitive elections. We illustrate our argument using matched samples from two rounds (2009 and 2014) of the Indian National Election Survey and an original post-election survey in 2019. We find that women are consistently less likely to report either an interest in politics, or an opinion on political issues, if their spouse or an adult family member observes the interview. Our findings suggest that women’s political agency is systematically under-estimated by researchers, and that women are more likely to assert themselves politically in survey contexts, if given the privacy to do so.

Women legislators and economic performance

AbstractThere has been a phenomenal global increase in the proportion of women in politics in the last two decades, but there is no evidence of how this has influenced economic performance. We investigate this using data on competitive elections to India’s state assemblies, leveraging close elections to isolate causal effects. We find significantly higher growth in economic activity in constituencies that elect women and no evidence of negative spillovers to neighbouring male-led constituencies, consistent with net growth. Probing mechanisms, we find evidence consistent with women legislators being more efficacious, less corrupt and less vulnerable to political opportunism.

Do voters' biases impede future‐oriented policy‐making?

AbstractIn research on public economics, climate politics and the welfare state, voters' informational and cognitive biases are commonly understood as impeding future‐oriented policy‐making, by incentivizing policymakers to trade off long‐term investments against short‐term consumption when facing competitive elections or liquidity constraints. Yet, the assumptions about how policymakers perceive these alleged trade‐offs have not yet been verified. This study reports results from a survey of Swedish local government politicians, centring around experiments about environmental‐friendly public investments. We find that most politicians perceive that electoral competition stimulates rather than impedes investments. Politicians are, however, less supportive of investments if these need to be financed through absolute losses rather than gains foregone, which illustrates the relevance of endowment effects in long‐term governance. We furthermore show that our micro‐level observations are consistent with macro‐level investment expenditure patterns. These findings demonstrate that accounting for policymakers' own perceptions is important for advancing our understanding of future‐oriented policy‐making.

Elections and Corruption: Incentives to Steal or Incentives to Invest?

AbstractBy now, most political systems around the world hold regular multiparty elections of different quality and type. However, we know relatively little about the effect of elections on corruption, especially in high-discretion, public procurement contracts implementing development aid. To address this gap in the literature, we employ unmatched comparisons and matching estimators to analyze a global government contracting dataset that provides an objective proxy for corruption: the incidence of single bidding in competitive markets. We find that, all things being equal, corruption risks increase in the immediate pre-election period: single bidding is higher by 1.3–6.1% points. We demonstrate that the corruption-enhancing effect of elections is stronger under conditions of (i) high electoral competitiveness, (ii) medium-level party institutionalization, and (iii) “localized collective goods” clientelism.

The Origin of Electoral Absenteeism in Early Italy: New Evidence to Explain North–South Diverging Trends

Abstract Low turnout rates with high geographical disparities characterized Italian national elections in the first six decades after the country’s founding in 1861. Historians have largely overlooked these regional voting differences and their potential economic implications. A multiple-group interrupted time series analysis regression model demonstrates distinct electoral trends between the Center-North and the South, coinciding with electoral reforms in 1894 that affected electoral competition, particularly in the South. Furthermore, a random effect panel regression model reveals determinants of regional abstention rates, which indicate that different factors influenced abstention rates in the Center-North than in the South, emphasizing the relevance of political factors in the creation and widening of regional divergences in Italy.

The politics of ‘institutionalising’ social protection in Africa: The retrenchment of social cash transfers in Zambia, 2015–2021

AbstractSocial protection has expanded unevenly across Africa because of variations in both the initial adoption of programmes and their subsequent ‘institutionalisation’ through government-funded expansions in coverage. The case of Zambia illustrates how policy coalitions promoting the institutionalisation of social protection compete with other claimants over prioritisation in public spending. Even when faced with competitive elections, incumbent governments may prioritise other programmes over social protection. In Zambia, the incumbent government announced and budgeted for a massive government-funded expansion of social protection but failed to allocate the necessary funding – with the result that benefits were not paid to registered beneficiaries. If ‘institutionalisation’ is understood as entailing the political irreversibility of expansion, then the rhetoric of institutionalisation belied the reality (for several years) of retrenchment. The weakened policy coalition supporting social protection was unable to prevent government defunding as scarce government resources were allocated to competing programmes.

Jordanian Women’s Political Participation in The Nineteenth Parliament Elections (2020): The Beginning of the Political Rise of Jordanian Women?

Objectives: This study seeks to elucidate the significance of Jordanian women's political engagement in parliamentary elections by assessing their participation rights, examining the process of women's candidacy within the quota system, and evaluating their representation in open electoral competition. Methods: The research used the descriptive analytical method to identify the nature of Jordanian women's participation in the elections of the nineteenth parliament for (2020). This was conducted by analyzing the texts of the Jordanian Constitution and those of the Election Law for the parliament as well as identifying their contents, implications and objectives to find appropriate solutions to ensure the participation of Jordanian women in the parliamentary elections in addition to the study and analysis of statistical tables. Results: The results indicated that the Parliament’s Election Law granted Jordanian women the right to vote for membership in the Parliament while the Jordanian women participated as voters and candidates in the 19th Parliament elections for the year (2020). Yet, the results showed that the Election Law specified a mechanism for Jordanian women's candidacy for the women's quota and determined the extent of Jordanian women's representation through free competition for the electoral district. Conclusions: The study recommended the necessity that the competent authorities in Jordan shall review the Election Law for the Parliament periodically together with the need to amend the Election Law to specify a quota for women in the seats allocated to the Circassians, Chechens and Christians to ensure real equality in rights and duties between men and women

International Rewards for Gender Equality Reforms in Autocracies

How do international audiences perceive, and respond to, gender equality reforms in autocracies? For autocrats, the post-Cold War rewards associated with democracy create incentives to make reforms that will be viewed as democratic but not threaten their political survival. We theorize women’s rights as one such policy area, contrasting it with more politically costly reforms to increase electoral competition. A conjoint survey experiment with development and democracy promotion professionals demonstrates how autocracies enhance their reputations and prospects for foreign aid using this strategy. While increasing electoral competition significantly improves perceived democracy and support for aid, increasing women’s economic rights is also highly effective. Gender quotas exhibit a significant (though smaller) effect on perceived democracy. A follow-up survey of the public and elite interviews replicate and contextualize the findings. Relevant international elites espouse a broad, egalitarian conception of democracy, and autocrats accordingly enjoy considerable leeway in how to burnish their reputations.

Objective conditions, political knowledge, and perceptions of electoral competition in U.S. mayoral elections

AbstractObjectiveThis article investigates the extent to which perceptions of the competitive context of mayoral elections reflect actual levels of competition and how that relationship is shaped by political expertise.MethodsWe use a unique survey data set of more than 6000 respondents interviewed in 40 separate mayoral elections.ResultsIn broad strokes, people living in competitive cities are more likely than others to predict competitive outcomes. However, in keeping with the knowledge gap hypothesis, the relationship between objective levels of competition and perceived levels of competition is much stronger among those with relatively high levels of political knowledge than those with low levels of political knowledge.ConclusionsThe connection between actual and perceived conditions does not hold evenly for all segments of society—the information‐rich respond to their political environment, while the information‐poor are relatively unmoved by that environment. This pattern of asymmetric information acquisition is a familiar one in American politics and provides further evidence of an important source of political inequality.

Social movements in Southeast Europe: from urban mobilisation to electoral competition

ABSTRACT This special issue explores the role of grassroots activism and social movements in creating counter-spaces of democratic learning and resistance to authoritarianism in Southeast Europe in the 2020s. It investigates the role of social movements and new political actors on the Left in containing democratic decline as well as their attempts to strengthen democracy from below. The contributions to this special issue demonstrate how social movements, which emerged across Southeast Europe in the last decade, can be conceived as spaces of innovation resistance, and also act as important bulwarks against democratic backsliding. Furthermore, the articles delve into the factors that foster the engagement of social movement actors in electoral politics, exploring the trajectories that political parties take when they enter into the electoral arena.

From Donald Dewar to Humza Yousaf: The Role of Scotland's First Ministers and the Importance of Political Leadership

AbstractThe establishment of the Scottish Parliament created new institutions and a political environment which has had lasting implications for Scottish and UK politics, including furthering the rise of the Scottish National Party and the independence question. One central element of this new terrain has been the emergence of the Scottish government and the post of First Minister of Scotland. The latter, the most prominent devolved political position in Scotland, has so far been subjected to little detailed analysis.Drawing on a wide array of material, research and interviews with key individuals, this article explores four aspects: first, the nature of the office of first minister; second, how it has evolved over the past quarter century; third, what various post‐holders have brought to the role; and finally, how they have been influenced by wider contextual factors such as the changing dynamics of party support, electoral competition and intra‐party considerations. The article offers some provisional conclusions about the changing nature of political leadership and the interplay between institutional factors, public opinion and the role of the individual political actors in the twenty‐first century, which has relevance not just for Scotland but further afield.

With a little help from my friends. Political competition in the shadow of organized crime

Higher electoral competition may reinforce the position of politically active criminal organizations, which can endorse politicians in exchange for favors. This paper formalizes this intuition and test it on Italian electoral data, using the 1991 electoral reform as an exogenous source of variation in electoral competition in one of the two branches of the Parliament. Our triple-difference estimates suggest that after the reform mafia-prone areas reported higher vote shares awarded to the party traditionally supported by criminal organizations only for the branch affected by the reform, and a larger dispersion of votes across candidates of the same party.

How ballot access laws increase primary competition and decrease party unity

How do electoral institutions affect primary competition and legislative behavior? This paper examines the understudied electoral rule known as ballot access laws, advancing the novel theory that denying ballot access to minor candidates forces these outsiders into major parties. I find that in American states that adopt high ballot access thresholds experience higher rates of ideological heterogeneity and primary competition, and those that reduce their thresholds experience a reduction in heterogeneity and competition. Using an original dataset on state-level changes to ballot access thresholds from 1990 to 2018, I find that an increase in the number and type of primary competition leads to an increase in heterogeneity within both party caucuses. This paper adds to the literature on legislative behavior and electoral institutions, demonstrating institutions role in shaping electoral competition and the ideology of those represented in office.

Demographic structure and voting behaviour during democratization: evidence from Malaysia’s 2022 election

ABSTRACT Malaysia’s fifteenth general election (GE15) was a milestone in the country’s democratization process, with three major coalitions contesting for national power after years of political instability. In this article, we investigate how Malaysia’s cleavage structure – a central feature of Malaysia’s prior authoritarian regime – shapes electoral competition in a newly competitive political environment. We find that the ethnic structure remains central to explaining party strategy and coalition behaviour in GE15, but that more democratic competition has increased the salience of regional differences – both between peninsular Malaysia and East Malaysia, and within peninsular Malaysia itself. Our analysis reveals the structural foundations of political competition in democratizing countries and contribute to the emerging literature on authoritarian legacies in such contexts.