Electoral Competition Research Articles

Explaining leadership quality among the directors of Mexico’s subnational women’s policy agencies

ABSTRACT This article examines the effectiveness of women’s policy agencies (WPAs), with a focus on the leadership of subnational women’s institutes in the Mexican states. We contribute to the existing research with a new original dataset on WPAs in an important third-wave democracy in Latin America. Our focus on leadership quality provides a useful method for measuring one central component of institutional effectiveness across a large number of cases. We consider high-quality leaders to be those with longer tenure in office and higher levels of education, more professional experience, and closer connections to the feminist movement. Using a dataset of 226 directors, we find evidence that party ideology, electoral competition, and the institutional design of the agency influence the quality of leadership. Moreover, states with stronger women’s movements have higher-quality leadership in their WPAs. These findings support a central premise of the state feminism literature – that WPAs are most effective when allied with strong women’s movements and left-wing governments – and also point to the importance of electoral democracy in promoting institutional effectiveness.

A citizen-candidate model of party formation

There are multiple models of party formation in the political economy literature. However, most of these works consider individuals as parties and do not model parties as a group of candidates. In this paper, we follow the latter approach and assume that parties form as a result of mutually agreeable links between candidates. We consider a citizen-candidate model of electoral competition where candidates decide whether they want to participate in election alone or offer links to adjacently placed candidates on a one-dimensional policy space. We characterize one-party and two-party equilibrium and show that no multi-party equilibrium exists with three or more parties. We provide conditions on the rents of winning with respect to the cost of participating in election which also depend on the number of candidates. We provide new insights which explain party formation from the perspective of group formation. Our results confirm the Duverger’s law and are consistent with empirical evidence on plurality voting systems.

A Farewell to Arms: Paramilitaries Demobilization, Political Competition and Public Goods in Colombia

Scholars have highlighted how local elites can use their de facto power to capture democracy. This makes electoral competition particularly vulnerable in armed conflicts driven by politics. Would a reduction in politically motivated violence perpetrated by local elites promote electoral competition? To investigate this, I employ a synthetic difference-in-differences strategy within the setting of Colombia’s demobilization of paramilitaries, who were heavily connected with local elites across the country. Following demobilization, I observe an increase in competition. I show that this improvement in competition is consistent with a decrease in repressive violence, leading to an increased likelihood of electoral candidacy for parties that would have potentially been victims of violence in the absence of demobilization. However, I also find that parties associated with elites increased their electoral presence, showing an effort to compensate for the loss produced by demobilization. Finally, I present evidence that public goods investment in territories previously controlled by paramilitaries undergoes a transformation, now benefiting a broader sector of the population, which I argue is partly explained by the increased competition.

Another sleeping giant? Environmental issue preferences in the 2019 European Parliament elections

Seminal works have highlighted a growing polarisation regarding the environment, with supporters advocating for immediate emissions reduction and others downplaying or even denying human-caused climate change. Despite this debate, little attention has been focused on how voters’ environmental preferences influence their electoral behaviour. Using the metaphor of the ‘sleeping giant’ from European Union politics literature, the article empirically explores how environmental issue preferences impact voting choices. Analysing stacked data from the 2019 European Election Study, the article examines the phenomenon of environmental issue voting by shifting the unit of analysis from individuals to party-voter dyads. Results reveal that environmental preferences moderately, yet significantly, affect vote choice. This effect is more pronounced among left-leaning voters and in countries where the environmental issue is more salient among the public. Our findings shed light on patterns of environmental preference and their role in European electoral competition.

ELECTORAL PROCESS AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE: CAUSES AND CHARACTERISTICS

The article is devoted to the study of the main causes, mechanisms and patterns of political violence in the context of electoral struggle. It has been found that under conditions of significant competition and uncertainty of election results, political elites may choose illegal tools and strategies to maintain power: violence, bribery, fraud, intimidation, and persecution of opponents. It has been proven that the use of violence during the electoral process can significantly distort the voting results, undermine the legitimacy of the elections, and limit the participation of opposition candidates and voters.It has been determined that electoral violence involves the use of organized physical coercion, repression, intimidation, persecution, and destruction of property before, during, and after elections in order to influence the electoral process, voter behavior, and voting results. Such violence becomes an obstacle to holding democratic, fair, free, and competitive elections, hinders the establishment of consensus between government and opposition forces, and can provoke a large-scale armed conflict. It has been proven that the causes of electoral violence include the participants’ desire to influence voting results, increase their advantage over competitors, intimidate disloyal voters, deprive opposition supporters of the opportunity to vote, delegitimize the electoral process, and discredit the government’s ability to maintain security and the functioning of political institutions. As a result, it was found that political competition, unpredictable election results and ethnic polarization of society increase the likelihood of electoral violence, deep political crisis and armed confrontation, which can have critical consequences for political security and the sustainability of democracy.

Secure majorities, unequal districts: One person, one vote & state bipartisanship

In 1964, the Supreme Court ended legal state legislature malapportionment. This paper considers the effects of this federal action on the partisan and ideological behavior of state legislatures in the immediate period following the Reapportionment Revolution (1959–1974), particularly in states with vast rural and urban representational differences. Using a novel dataset of state-level malapportionment rates, legislative partisanship, and state-level ideology, we find that nation-wide requirements led many state legislatures to become more competitive. Yet, while this electoral competition encouraged immediate bipartisanship, at least measured by partisan makeup and ideology, this partisan harmony was short-lived in states that malapportioned along geographic lines before the Redistricting Revolution. Thus, while we find evidence that institutional change can decrease partisanship, in cases where partisan control is reflective of perhaps a demographic or geographic imbalance, these changes can lead to a backlash effect.

(Un)leashed potentials: an activist-centered perspective on the political mobilization of motorcycle taxi drivers in eastern DRC

ABSTRACT The re-emergence of competitive elections in Africa has sparked new interest in political mobilization on the continent. Much of this literature focusses on political actors and the strategies they use to mobilize. If the campaign activists are reviewed at all, they are often categorized by their ethnic or religious affiliation. Thereby, abilities and potentials for political participation, which are important within conceptual literature on political mobilization, are side-lined. This article uses an activist-centered perspective to review the political mobilization of motorcycle taxi drivers, eastern Congo. Based on empirical research in 2020 and 2021, it evaluates the mobilization potentials of the so-called motards and their deployment during political action. The article finds that motards possess unique potentials for participating in political campaigns due to their mobility and large social networks but only partially deploy them. While their mobility potential is widely utilized, the mobilization of their social networks is hampered by a lack of allegiances and infrequent contacts with politicians. Based on the research findings, the article advocates expanding the perception of political mobilization in Africa by reflecting on the preconditions of mobilizability such as enabling potentials, interactions with activists and aligned political strategies.

Voices from within: Tracing Chinese Public Perceptions of Democracy in the New Era

AbstractDespite the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) emphasis on whole process people’s democracy and democracy with Chinese characteristics, the type of democracy desired by the Chinese people remains debatable. Using two nationwide surveys conducted in 2015 and 2019, this study examines how ordinary Chinese people view democracy during Xi Jinping’s new era. Acknowledging the constraints of conventional methodologies, this study adopts a novel approach that uses automated text analysis to dissect open-ended survey responses about democracy. The results reveal that Chinese citizens primarily associate democracy with freedom of speech, consultation, and minben rather than competitive elections. Furthermore, this study reveals that a higher level of education, more frequent internet usage, and higher household income are positively correlated with a liberal perspective on democracy. This suggests that although the Chinese communist regime may not face immediate pressure to implement open elections, growing support for consultation and freedom may necessitate a greater focus on procedural democracy building by the CCP. By supplementing traditional research methods, this study contributes to a better understanding of China’s regime resilience and its potential future trajectories.

Understanding the effect of term limits on voter turnout: Evidence from a quasi-experiment in Costa Rica based on a registered report

Imposing term limits on elected officials is expected to increase turnout due to enhanced competition by one theoretical perspective, while another predicts depressed turnout as a result of clientelist turnout buying. These puzzling contradictory predictions are examined by a quasi-experiment (using a difference-in-differences approach) based on a 2022 reform which introduced term limits for Costa Rican mayors that were applied for the first time in the 2024 municipal election. Over one half of mayors suddenly faced retroactive term limits, while the remaining ones were eligible for reelection. This analysis was pre-registered following the 2022 reform but before the 2024 election, that is, at a time when treatment assignment already occurred but the post-treatment outcomes were not known and the analysis could still not be performed. The analysis could only be completed after the February 2024 election. The results suggest that the adoption of term limits reinvigorated electoral competition but that its participatory gains were only modest, fostering turnout only in the largest cities. The analysis contributes by advancing the—still uncommon—practice of pre-registering observational research after the treatment assignment but prior to the release of the data (and even prior to the processes that produce that data).

Convicting Corrupt Officials: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Cases

Abstract Can the judiciary help root out government corruption? This article exploits the random assignment of court cases to justices who exhibit varying degrees of strictness to examine how convicting corrupt officials affects local government outcomes in the Philippines. I document that convictions improve the management of local public finances and reduce associated corruption. An exploration of mechanisms suggests that legal deterrence effects contribute to these findings. The results further indicate that convictions are effective at stifling corruption among bureaucrats, but not politicians. Consistent with this heterogeneity, convictions reduce electoral competition and consequently weaken accountability for incumbent politicians.

Seachange Migration, Outer Metropolitan Suburbanisation, and Marginality: The Electoral Politics of the Central Coast of New South Wales, 1949–2001

Seachanging and the expansion of suburbia led to important changes in Australia's human geography during the second half of the twentieth century. However, the implications of domestic migration on electoral politics have received only limited study. The Central Coast of New South Wales was one place where these two patterns of movement converged and which came to be routinely identified in public debate as electorally marginal. In reviewing this discursive positioning across both federal and state politics over several decades, the article examines how the region's marginality was often linked to the social mix created by migration primarily from Sydney, among which retirees and long distance commuters received particular attention as cohorts of voters. The analysis then turns to electoral competition in what was thus seen as a contestable space. This spanned national, state, and local issues and the major parties sometimes pre‐selected candidates offering very distinct value propositions. Overall, the Central Coast's regional political discourse reflected wider understandings of voting realignment seen around Australia, including changing perspectives on class, but also highlights how migration created new, formative communities where marginality was viewed as an important part of local political identity and practice.

National legislatures and corporate transparency

The purpose of this study is to posit and test whether the presence and structure of national legislatures can account for the varying degree of corporate transparency displayed by firms operating in emerging economies. We conducted tests using a sample of 226,088 firm-level observations spanning 67 countries over the period 1990–2014. Firms located in political regimes that lack national legislatures display a lower level of transparency than those in regimes with semi-competitive legislative elections, and these in turn display lower transparency than firms located in countries with competitive elections.

Political Drivers of State Fiscal Cyclicality

This study examines political factors influencing US state fiscal policy cyclicality. US states largely pursue procyclical fiscal policy, despite the federal government operating countercyclically. Institutional factors, such as balanced-budget rules, have been examined as influences on state cyclicality, with little prior focus on political factors. This article examines the impacts of electoral competitiveness, political polarization, and legislative turnover on state cyclicality. The combination of polarization and turnover is associated with procyclical policy, while the effect of competition on cyclicality is conditional on year from election. Both effects vary during economic upturns compared to downturns. State institutional design implications are considered.

Dynamics of a Single Candidate for Regional Head Election in the Democratic System in Indonesia

As the 2024 regional head elections approach, strategies are needed to maintain the democratic system in Indonesia to anticipate the occurrence of single candidates. The trend of single candidates in regional head elections is a concern for the nation, as the world's third-largest democracy should be able to conduct competitive elections with at least two pairs of regional head candidates. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the causes of single candidates in regional head elections in Indonesia and to develop strategies to anticipate single candidates in the 2024 regional head elections. This research uses doctrinal/normative legal research methods. The results of this study indicate the factors causing single candidates in regional head elections are: the high cost of political campaigns, high thresholds for candidacy, and the significant power of incumbents. Strategies to anticipate single candidates in regional head elections include fostering political party cadres and encouraging public participation through independent candidates.

More Electoral Competition Without More Voter Participation: Quasi-Experimental Test of a Term Limit Reform in Ecuador

Term limits are theoretically expected to boost voter participation which has been confirmed by multiple empirical examinations. This study uses a robust causal assessment within the difference-in-differences framework to evaluate this hypothesis. It leverages an exogenous 2018 term limit reform in Ecuador which prohibited some, but not all, incumbent mayors from running in elections. Contrary to expectations, the results indicate null findings: the adoption of term limits has neither increased turnout, nor depressed the casting of blank and spoiled ballots (alternative indicators of voter engagement under compulsory voting). This is puzzling given that the reform impacted the electoral competition by significantly increasing the number of mayoral candidates in the newly open-seat contests. Two possible solutions to the puzzle of the null findings are presented with implications for understanding the scope conditions for the effect of term limits on voter participation.

(Large) finite to continuum: An approximation result for electoral competition models

We consider a model of electoral competition with two contestants where voters have single-plateaued preferences. We characterize the Nash equilibria of the electoral game for two settings: (i) finite, and (ii) continuum of voters over finitely many voter preferences. We say that the continuum model approximates the finite voters model if the Nash equilibria set in the two models is the same when the population tends to infinity. We show that approximation holds if and only if the corresponding continuum model satisfies proportion conservation at the centre (PCC) and positive mass at limit-centre (PML). PCC states that the aggregate mass of voters at the centre in the continuum model be equal to its finite (proportional) counterpart as the population tends to infinity. PML requires that the limit-centre be in the support of the limit distribution in the continuum model. Our paper provides a framework for studying approximation of equilibria in electoral competition models.

Political determinants of government transparency: Evidence from open government data initiatives

AbstractThe increasing availability of extensive governmental data, technological advancements, and a rising standard for government openness are encouraging global governments to implement open data initiatives. While some governments are actively adapting to these trends, others remain behind, despite the pressure. This research explores the political and administrative reasons behind these differences. By analyzing how local governments in South Korea handled requests for open data from citizens between 2007 and 2016, the study highlights the importance of political competition and administrative strength in fostering government transparency and effectively addressing citizen data requests. The study assesses open government data based on its scope, time, and quality, finding that higher levels of electoral competition and better administrative capabilities contribute to increased transparency and responsiveness. However, the study's use of a regression discontinuity design reveals that the political party controlling local governments had minimal influence on these factors.Related ArticlesHeo, Inhye. 2013. “The Political Economy of Policy Gridlock in South Korea: The Case of the Lee Myung‐bak Government's Green Growth Policy.” Politics & Policy 41(4): 509–35. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12029.Heo, Inhye. 2022. “Energy Democratization Policy without Democratization of Policy Governance in South Korea: A Participatory Democracy Perspective.” Politics & Policy 50(4): 834–50. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12480.Nam, Aerang, and Christopher M. Weible. 2023. “Examining Experts' Discourse in South Korea's Nuclear Power Policy Making: An Advocacy Coalition Framework Approach to Policy Knowledge.” Politics & Policy 51(2): 201–21. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12522.

Election proximity and the effectiveness of economic sanctions

Do elections matter for sanction effectiveness? Scholars have long highlighted the importance of domestic political factors in target (i.e. sanctioned) states in explaining when economic sanctions work. This line of research, however, has primarily focused on political regime characteristics and interest groups that are relatively low time-variant during sanction episodes. Building on this literature, we explore the effect of temporal proximity to elections. While the impact of elections have been examined in the context of military conflicts, their possible effects on sanction effectiveness have not been subject to systematic scrutiny. We argue that target governments are more likely to comply with sender demands as elections loom near in order to avoid the likely political costs of sanctions. The effect of elections, however, is likely to vary across different election characteristics and political regime types. We assess the empirical merits of our claims using data on over 1,000 sanction cases between 1950 and 2020. The results from a battery of empirical tests, including those that account for potential selection bias, support our hypotheses. We find that elections have a positive effect on sanction success, and this effect is more prominent in less democratic states that hold competitive elections. This suggests that even if sanctions have a relatively low success rate against non-democratic polities, elections may provide a window of opportunity for senders to extract concessions from target states.

Navigating new realities: Explaining programmatic transitions of mainstream and niche parties

Electoral competition is determined by the issues that parties choose to compete on and the stances they adopt on these issues. However, little research has examined the trade-off between expanding a party’s programmatic stances to secondary issues while maintaining ideological continuity on primary issues. This article seeks to address this gap by examining programmatic transitions among mainstream and niche parties and in which contexts these transitions are more frequent. The study analyses 47 parties in 10 established democracies between 1986 and 2020 using multiple regression techniques. The results show that niche parties are more likely to focus on secondary issues, and when they make such transitions, they tend to be larger. The analysis also reveals that the length of niche competition influences mainstream parties’ programmatic transitions, while niche parties’ transitions are driven by their continuity in programmatic transitions and governmental experience.

Comparative Model of Political Marketing of the Winning Team of Ganjar Pranowo- Taj Yasin with Sudirman Said-Ida Fauziah in the 2018 Central Java Election in Pati Regency

This study is a comparative study of the political marketing model that occurred in the 2018 Central Java regional election competition in Pati Regency. The focus is on how the political marketing models run by candidates and winning teams in winning the competition, then what causes the strong competition in the election in Pati Regency. The findings of this study include four important things that are the main causes of the strong competition in running political marketing between the winning teams of candidates in Pati Regency, causing different political marketing models to be run to gain support from voters. First, the Work Program offered; Second, Campaign Presentation; Third, Political Marketing Media Channels; Fourth, Personal Branding of Candidate Leadership. The method used is a qualitative method.