Elections In Russia Research Articles

Chained by One Chain: Mechanisms of Electoral Mobilization at the Local Level in the Ethnic Republics of Russia

ABSTRACT Researchers of Russian elections have long noticed that in a number of ethnic republics, the level of electoral mobilization and voters’ political conformism is higher than the average in Russia. Which factors influence a high level of electoral mobilization? How does it work? The article attempts to answer these questions by analyzing qualitative data collected through focus groups in five regions: Bashkortostan, Tatarstan, Komi, Chuvashia, and Yakutia. The results of the study allow us to conclude that a high level of electoral mobilization is the result of a combination of three factors, each of which affects different categories of voters.l

Signaling Games of Election Fraud: A Case of Russia

Abstract Over the 2000s Russian elections have become increasingly unfree and unfair, characterized by suppression of electoral competition, rising levels of administrative interference and drastic growth of electoral frauds. In this paper I propose that the pattern of fraudulent elections in Russia can be explained by combining an idea about federalism with a game-theoretic model of the relationship between the Kremlin and a single regional governor. Specifically, election fraud becomes a basic signaling mechanism of regional bosses’ loyalty and of their ability to control the administrative resources to the Kremlin’s benefit. If electoral signaling occurs, data manipulation is most likely to take place with 0s and 5s in the last digit of rounded percentages of turnout and electoral support, which is the easiest and most readily detected way to report basic information to superiors. Based on the Russian electoral and financial data for 2000-2018, my analysis shows strong evidence of election fraud associated with the post-electoral interbudgetary transfers.

Representation of Women and Ethnic Minorities in the Russian State Duma 1993-2021

Abstract Elections to the Russian State Duma provide a unique context to study the representation of women and ethnic minorities in a national legislature. Russian elections have witnessed dramatic institutional variation, including a shift from semi-democratic contestation to competitive authoritarianism and the use of different electoral systems. Moreover, ethnic federalism has produced political and demographic conditions that promote the representation of titular ethnic groups in ethnic republics. Finally, the transition from a fragmented party system to one controlled by a single dominant party potentially has important potential ramifications for women and minority representation. We use a unique dataset that codes the ethnicity and sex of individual legislators for each election from 1993 to 2021 to examine how regime type, electoral rules, demographic conditions, and party affiliation have affected descriptive representation in Russia. Using similar data on selected states from Eastern Europe, we compare Russia’s experience with that of other postcommunist states as well as the United States.

A Russian-American News Cross-Coverage. A Hidden Threat to the Democratic Way of Life

ABSTRACT This research is a comparative content analysis of the media coverage of presidential elections in Russia and America in 2012. The theoretical framework for this research came from the three classical works by Walter Lippmann published a century ago. This study is a centennial anniversary empirically grounded reexamination of his ideas. The research found a stark contrast between the ways the American and Russian media covered the elections in the counterpart country. Consequently, it is found that at that time it is not Russian but the American media outlet acted in a way that could present a danger for democracy.

A story of (non)compliance, bias, and conspiracies: How Google and Yandex represented Smart Voting during the 2021 parliamentary elections in Russia

On 3 September 2021, the Russian court forbade Google and Yandex to display search results for “Smart Voting,” the query referring to a tactical voting project by the jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. To examine whether the two search engines complied with the court order, we collected top search outputs for the query from Google and Yandex. Our analysis demonstrates the lack of compliance from both engines; however, while Google continued prioritizing outputs related to the opposition’s web resources, Yandex removed links to them and, in some cases, promoted conspiratorial claims aligning with the Russian authorities’ anti-Western narrative.

ЭЛЕКТРОННОЕ ГОЛОСОВАНИЕ В РОССИИ И ЗА РУБЕЖОМ

Introduction: the article analyzes the systems of electronic voting in Russia and foreign countries. Purpose: to investigate the advantages and disadvantages of electronic voting systems used in Russia and across the world and to develop recommendations for improving Russian electoral law. Methods: general scientific methods; special scientific methods, including comparative legal and systemic ones. Results: the development of information and communication technologies in recent years facilitates their use in all spheres of public life, including in the implementation of democracy. The introduction of electronic voting into the Russian legal system pursues the following goals: to increase the voting turnout, including on the part of persons with reduced mobility or when voting outside the place of residence; to increase the transparency of election; to reduce the time it takes to count the votes and publish the election results; to reduce the costs of organizing and conducting elections; to make the forms of citizen participation in democratic processes corresponding to the level of the development of society. Conclusions: the state automated system ‘Vybory’(Eng. – ‘Election’) used in Russia operates in an autonomous mode, i.e. without the possibility of information transmission via the Internet, which increases its reliability and prevents unauthorized interference or change in the voting results initiated from the outside; nevertheless, there remains a loophole for falsification of voting results when the data is transmitted from polling stations to territorial election commissions (TECs), which is a problem that requires solution. Signatures in support of a candidate/lists of candidates in electronic form must be collected exclusively through the web portal of public services ‘Gosuslugi’. Remote electronic voting in elections in Russia should provide voters with the opportunity to repeatedly change their will until the end of the voting periodas this would prevent the possible use of ‘administrative resources’ and bribery of the voters.

RESOLVABILITY OF ELECTORAL SYSTEMS AS A CRITERION OF THEIR FAIRNESS

Abstract: the legal content of the mathematical criterion of resolvability of electoral systems is considered. The connection of this rule with the principle of fair elections has been established. As it turned out, almost all electoral systems used in elections in Russia do not fully or partially comply with this provision. It is proposed to abandon the use of unscientific rules (the method of seniority, drawing lots) to determine the winner in elections in case of equality of votes among several candidates. It is proposed to use a number of preferential methods that meet this criterion and allow for fair elections in one round. Ultimately, taking into account the criterion of resolvability in the development of electoral systems will increase the legitimacy of elections as a scientific method of decision-making in social choice in a democratic society.

ЭЛЕКТОРАЛЬНЫЕ ПРЕДПОЧТЕНИЯ ИЗБИРАТЕЛЕЙ: ЭФФЕКТ «ДРУЗЕЙ И СОСЕДЕЙ» ИМЕЕТ ЗНАЧЕНИЕ В РОССИИ?

The article examines the level of influence of the spatial characteristics of the candidate on the voting results. The author seeks to answer three questions: do «local» candidates have advantages? What determines the propensity of voters to vote for «local» politicians? What is the magnitude of the «friends and neighbors» effect on the election results? It is shown that candidates, as a rule, receive more votes in their «home» towns (districts). The author notes that most of the studies are based on electoral data for the United States and European countries. The number of papers devoted to understanding the spatial attributes of candidates in elections in Russia is limited. A geographical factor such as the «friends and neighbors» voting was chosen as the conceptual basis of the study. To answer the research questions, the author analyzed the data collected during the online survey. The article compared the results of «local» candidates in direct gubernatorial elections, which they received at the regional level, with the votes of voters in the «home» district. Based on the results of the study, the author came to the conclusion that voters tend to electorally support «local» candidates. The results show that voters with a more pronounced local identity are more concerned about the spatial attributes of candidates. The article notes that the tendency to vote for «local» candidates for deputies depends on the level of organization of elections: support for «local» candidates is more pronounced in municipal elections/ The author emphasizes that the «friends and neighbors» voting gives «local» candidates 4,92% of the vote.

Means of Representation of the Concept of “VLAST'” in Political Discourse Texts (Based on the Election Programs of 2021 Parliamentary Elections in Russia)

Means of Representation of the Concept of “VLAST'” in Political Discourse Texts (Based on the Election Programs of 2021 Parliamentary Elections in Russia)

ДУХОВНЫЕ ЦЕННОСТИ КАК ПОЛИТТЕХНОЛОГИЯ «МЯГКОЙ СИЛЫ»

The study aims to find of an optimal model of value-worldview programming of the process of Russian national revival in the conditions of the outbreak (according to the head of the Vatican, Pope Francis) of the World War III. The tasks are set as: a) theoretical classification of aspects of the hierarchical system of management priorities; b) establishment of historically dominant conceptual and value determinants of the national nation-building process; c) identification of the value-worldview mechanism for the production of psychotypes of citizenship; d) definition of the value matrix of national identity. To solve the problem (a), the method of analog political modeling (logical-intuitive analysis, formalization) was used. Question (b) is investigated using the methods of synectics and extrapolation. Problem (c) is solved by the method of cognitive mapping. To perform task (d), a universal method of expert assessments (morphological matrix approach, Geller matrix and "next System") was applied. A classification table of management levels is presented. The binary historical code of religious-value programming of two antagonistic electoral psychotypes of Russians is determined. The paradox of the nonlinearity of the political behavior of the Russian electorate is explained and a general political concept of value-worldview reversion is proposed, which regresses the politically more progressive original domestic civil psychocode.

The Anatomy of Loyalty: Mechanisms for the Formation of an Electoral Super-Majority in the Ethnic Republics of Contemporary Russia

An invariable characteristic of Russian elections in the post-Soviet period is the relatively-high turnout and electoral support of incumbents demonstrated by many of the ethnic republics. The article is devoted to the study of the reasons for the relationship between the ethnic factor and the reproduction of political loyalty. Unlike most previous studies, the authors test existing theories on the basis of opinion polls data rather than official electoral statistics. This makes it possible to include the ethnic characteristics of voters at the individual level in the analysis, rather than regional or local levels. The statistical analysis is complemented by the study of qualitative data in the form of expert interviews and materials from three focus groups conducted in the villages of Bashkortostan and Tatarstan. The results obtained make it possible to assert that the political loyalty of the Russian republics is determined not by cultural specifics, but by the nature of the settlement structure. Ethnic republics include a relatively-high proportion of the agrarian population, a significant part of which is represented by ethnic minorities. This overlap of ethnic and rural segments determines the reproduction of the electoral super-majority. However, the nature of this phenomenon is explained not by the “patriarchal culture” of non-Russian ethnic groups, but by the institutional capabilities of the local administration to monitor and control the political behavior of rural voters. The study also made it possible to clarify the role of the ethnic factor in contemporary electoral processes, which also affects the reproduction of political loyalty not only to the heads of the republics, but also to non-ethnic federal political actors. However, its influence is also conditioned by the political and institutional characteristics of the ethnic republics, and not by the cultural characteristics of the titular ethnic groups.

Innovative Technologies of the Electoral Process in the Light of the Rule of Law

Introduction. In the electoral process, innovative technologies are legitimately and/or are de facto introduced. These are complex tools, the result of the integration of artificial intelligence, technology and human behaviour in elections. The article analyses the influence of these technologies on the electoral process from the standpoint of ensuring the rule of law. Theoretical Basis. Methods. In a State governed by the rule of law, the rule of law should fully apply to all stages of the electoral process. The paradigm (sample) of traditional approaches assumes direct physical commission of electoral actions by citizens, political parties, and other election participants, based on the presumption: “here and now”. The introduction of innovative technologies in the electoral process entails not only a change in forms, but also, as the quantitative growth increases, a change in the paradigm of the electoral process from traditional to digital, but at the same time the rule of law must be maintained. Results. The analysis of the functioning of innovative technologies shows their multi- vector and contradictory impact on the electoral process: from creating convenience for participants to complicating the structure, replacing electoral actions with transactions. Currently, there is no understanding of the legal significance of transactions in the electoral process, their relationship to electoral actions. The practice of Russian elections follows the path of changing the electoral process not by law, but by technical solutions that are a priori considered legitimate or do not allow their assessment from the position of the rule of law. As a result, the rule of electoral law is either ignored or is simply purely formal. The well-known principles of electoral law exist as if in parallel, without having a real impact on the introduction and regulation of innovative technologies of the electoral process. It is necessary to include innovative technologies in the subject of electoral law. A serious contribution to the solution of this problem would be the legislative consolidation of the principle of security of the electoral process. In this case, we are not talking about security in relation to public order. The content of the new principle should be a broad set of obligations of the state as an organiser of elections, including the obligation to fully verify these technologies, their transparency, new rights and guarantees of election participants, and public control. Discussion and Conclusion. The predominant use of innovative technologies aimed at providing voting services does not always have a positive impact on the integrity of the electoral process and the operation of the principles of electoral law. It is advisable to take care of the introduction and use of innovative technologies to serve them at all stages of the electoral process with unconditional guarantees of the rule of law.

Consolidating the Putin Regime: The 2020 Referendum on Russia’s Constitutional Amendments

Abstract In July 2020, Russian voters gave strong support to a package of constitutional reforms that reconfigured the Russian political system and enshrined social guarantees and conservative identity values, consolidating the regime that has been built over a 20-year period. This was achieved through an alteration that ‘zeroed’ presidential terms that commenced before the constitutional change, potentially allowing President Vladimir Putin to overcome term limits and continue in office beyond 2024. The article explains how such a far-reaching and important change was successfully endorsed by the Russian electorate. The analysis shows that the main explanation rests with variations in voting patterns across the regions, a pattern that has been evident in previous Russian elections and resulted in strong pro-Putin support. The article also evaluates questions raised about the legitimacy of the result, and its long-term significance for the Russian political system.

Russo-African Relations and electoral democracy: Assessing the implications of Russia's renewed interest for Africa

ABSTRACT After decades of diplomatic disengagement from Africa, Russia is making a strong bid to facilitate bilateral relations with more African states. Many analysts regard this as an attempt to project power and influence outside of Russia's immediate borders in Eastern Europe and to whittle down the West's influence in Africa. The deepening ties between Russia and African states have led to the incursion of Russian political operatives and disinformation experts who have meddled in the political and electoral processes of countries such as Zimbabwe, Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. However, while Russian election interference in advanced western democracies has attracted extensive scholarly interest, similar meddling by Russian agents on the African continent has been subject to little scrutiny. This article sheds light on the methods used by Russian political operatives to meddle in elections in Africa. It concludes that Russia's renewed interest in Africa could have grave consequences for democracy on the continent if left unchecked.

Electoral Success of Independents under Authoritarianism: Evidence from Russia’s Local Elections, 2014–2018

ABSTRACT How are candidates without official party affiliation able to succeed in authoritarian elections? We analyzed 1,101 independents who took part in city council elections in Russia’s regional capitals between 2014 and 2018. We found that independent candidates’ electoral fortunes depended both on their personal resources enabling them to attract voters’ support and pre-electoral deals with the regime. We also discovered that the chances of being elected were higher for those formally independent candidates who were the regime’s hidden representatives. For the latter group, the chances to win the race were boosted mostly by pre-electoral deals, rather than their personal resources.

Цифровые сообщества новых политических партий в России (2020 г.)

The article presents the results of an applied political study of the electoral potential of new political parties that have demonstrated the capabilities of their digital infrastructures during the Russian Election Day 2020. The research methodology is based on the principles of social media predictive analytics and relies on automated tools for collecting and processing open digital traces. The paper presents a methodology for assessing the electoral potential of political parties, based on the measurement of indicators such as the level of user involvement in online party communities, the correspondence of the geography of the audience of regional communities to the localization indicated in them, and the bots of digital communities.

Electoral Manipulation and Regime Support

ABSTRACTDoes electoral fraud stabilize authoritarian rule or undermine it? The answer to this question rests in part on how voters evaluate regime candidates who engage in fraud. Using a survey experiment conducted after the 2016 elections in Russia, the authors find that voters withdraw their support from ruling party candidates who commit electoral fraud. This effect is especially large among strong supporters of the regime. Core regime supporters are more likely to have ex ante beliefs that elections are free and fair. Revealing that fraud has occurred significantly reduces their propensity to support the regime. The authors’ findings illustrate that fraud is costly for autocrats not just because it may ignite protest, but also because it can undermine the regime’s core base of electoral support. Because many of its strongest supporters expect free and fair elections, the regime has strong incentives to conceal or otherwise limit its use of electoral fraud.

Ideology and influence in the debate over Russian election interference

The salience of the debate over Russian political interference in the USA has increased significantly during the Trump administration. However, there is no consensus over how to respond to the interference of this openly illiberal power. This paper argues that we need to reconceptualize our understanding of Russian influence to understand this high level of contestation. While the current understanding of Russian influence is characterized as a problem of unwanted information flows, we argue that we also need to take seriously the ideological influence that the Russia regime has in the USA—that the appeal of the Russian regime’s conservative and populist ideology can help to explain this division. By taking ideological attraction seriously, we can explain why it is currently difficult for the USA to respond to this threat and why solutions to Russian interference based on the information flow models need to be reconsidered.

Russian Elections in Post-Soviet Eurasia: The Factor of Diaspora

The article is devoted to the peculiarities of holding Russian elections in neighboring countries. Using the example of the Russian presidential elections in 2018 in Belarus, Moldova and the Baltic states, the results of voting, the peculiarities of the organization of the expression of will and the final turnout are analyzed. Based on quantitative and qualitative data, as well as comparative analysis, measures are proposed to improve the process of foreign voting in Russian elections.

Did Industrialization Increase Support for the Radical Left? Evidence from the 1917 Russian Revolution

This paper explores the only universal election in Russia in the era of industrialization. Using a novel dataset on the 1917 Constituency Assembly elections, we find that a larger share of industrial workers dramatically increased voting for the radical left party, the Bolsheviks. We explore within-region variation in voting and use instrumental variables estimation, based on the presence of Carboniferous-era rock strata, to establish a causal relationship. We show that industrialization did not lead to a simple shift to the left but also polarized the electorate, pointing to a mechanism of political instability in revolutionary Russia.