Elections In Russia Research Articles

Putin's Peaks: Russian Election Data Revisited

Abstract Two years ago, Dmitry Kobak, Sergey Shpilkin and Maxim S. Pshenichnikov uncovered anomalies in Russia's election data. Following President Vladimir Putin's re-election in March this year, they take a fresh look at two new sets of data – but find much the same story within

Putin’s Russian Elections: Geopolitical Impacts, Economic And Foreign Policy, And International Business

The Russian system is not yet capable of running on its own, without Putin amid internal and external challenges and threats. Russian youth sees him as a hero; photos, participating in skiing, fishing, hunting, judo, hockey, ice dip in sub zero freezing water to mark Epiphany, and horse riding are a trademark of his physical strengths and connection to them. Putin established economic reforms; concentrated on foreign policy and security. Keen eyes on young democratic countries in emerging markets and Arab Spring geopolitical uncertainty, to capture opportunities in energy. Putin’s feuds with Western powers, has characterized him a villain, but a hero at home. He is criticised for centralized political and economic power in his own hands; he did what was required in the best interest of Russia. The future of the companies established businesses and secured, tenders, projects and public procurement in Putin’s regime.

Illegal Interference in Internal Affairs Sovereign States of the UN and in the Presidential Elections in Russia as Instrument of US Foreign Policy

Since signing of the UN Charter on June 26, 1945, that enshrined the principle of non-intervention in internal and external affairs of sovereign states, the United States, within the period from 1945 to 2000, committed over 100 acts of conscious unlawful intervention in the affairs of more than 60 states worldwide with the view of realizing the «colour revolution» scenarios, coups d’état and arranging social destabilization. The attempts of outside intervention in Russia’s internal affairs, in violation of the universally recognized norms of international law and the UN Charter, take place constantly, in fact from the moment of Russia’s proclaiming state sovereignty. The alleged grounds for intervention in the affairs of sovereign states are a special view about the US mission, predominant with the American elite, which is used for the politicians’ public argumentation on their «inalienable right». The main goal of Western intervention in Russia’s internal affairs and the elections is changing the foundations of the constitutional order and political course, violation of the territorial integrity, modifying the composition and structure of the Russian authorities, as well as inf luencing the Russian young people in order to make them a tool for erosion of the national political systems. To prevent the external threats to the sovereignty of the Russian Federation and the attempts to interfere in its purely internal affairs, Russia uses the whole potential of political and diplomatic measures and parliamentary diplomacy, adhering to the generally recognized norms of international law enshrined in the UN Charter, in particular, in Article 2 of the UN Charter, in the Declaration on the Inadmissibility of Intervention in Internal Affairs of States, as concerns protection of their independence and sovereignty, the provisions of international treaties and foreign experience of defending sovereignty and opposing intervention from outside.

Tax reforms and elections in modern Russia

The article is devoted to the study of the tax reforms in modern Russia. Tax reforms carried out since the beginning of the 1990s are analyzed in connection with the cyclical repetition of the stages of the electoral process, or the so-called electoral cycle. The research methodology includes the calculation of indicators characterizing the change in the tax system and the analysis of their dynamics at various stages of the electoral cycle. The main quantitative and qualitative indicators are: the tax burden on the economy as a whole (nominal and real); the tax burden on individual elements of GDP (on wages, on gross profit, on actual final consumption); the number of changes made to tax legislation; terms and procedure of tax amnesty. Three stages of tax reforms have been identified (1993–1996, 1997–2000, 2001–present) for research in modern history of Russia. The first two stages of tax reforms directly coincided with the electoral cycles. The third modern stage of tax reforms is implemented during several electoral cycles. The revealed influence of elections on the tax system of Russia results in a cyclical increase of the tax burden on the main elements of GDP in the first years of cycles and lowering of the tax burden in the final years of electoral cycles. In the elective period for elections to the State Duma, the nominal tax burden on the economy is always reduced. In the election year and next year of the electoral cycle, there is an increase in effective rates for profit, consumption and labor. In the final years of the electoral cycle, there is a decrease in effective rates for profit, consumption and labor. Thus, the results of the study confirmed the assumption on the existence of a relationship between tax reforms and elections in Russia and the possibility of increasing the tax burden in the short term Highlights 1. The relationship between tax reforms and electoral cycles in Russia is unambiguously present. The intensity of the relationship is determined by the degree of competition in the elections 2. The electoral cycles for the elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation have a stronger impact on tax reforms in Russia 3. Legislative activity on reforming the tax system of the Russian Federation is associated with the stages of the electoral cycle (declining in the election year in the State Duma and increasing in the pre-election period) 4. Tax amnesties are unambiguously connected with the electoral process and their conduct is confined to the elective period For citation Mayburov I. A., Kireenko A. P. Tax reforms and elections in modern Russia. Journal of Tax Reform, 2018, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 73–94. DOI: 10.15826/jtr.2018.4.1.046 Article info Received March 12, 2018; accepted April 15, 2018

Extra Votes to Signal Loyalty: Regional Political Cycles and National Elections in Russia

Under the system of appointing regional governors by the president, which existed in Russia between 2005–2012, governors’ loyalty to the central government and particularly their ability to deliver satisfactory results to the ruling party in national-level elections were crucial to their likelihood of being re-appointed for the next term. In this paper, we show that governors, anticipating the relationship between loyalty and re-appointments, attempted to increase their likelihood of being re-appointed by delivering additional votes to the ruling party, and that these attempts were subject to regional political cycles. We argue that delivering satisfactory results may have different importance to a governor depending on the stage of his term at which elections are held. If elections are held close to the expiration of a governor’s current term, the results are likely to be pivotal to his further political career. Exploiting variation in the starting and expiry dates of Russian regional governors’ terms of office, we find that the winning margins for a pro-government party across Russian regions in national-level elections held between 2007–2012 were substantially higher when elections were closer to the expiration of a regional governor’s term. However, for elections held between 1999–2004, when governors were subject to a direct vote by the regional population, no similar effect is found. We then implement several exercises to identify the source of the additional votes for the ruling party and demonstrate that governors, while unlikely using the means of electoral fraud, exerted efforts to stimulate turnout among ruling party supporters.

Речевые тактики убеждения в современном российском предвыборном дискурсе (на примере президентской кампании 2017–2018 годов)

Речевые тактики убеждения в современном российском предвыборном дискурсе (на примере президентской кампании 2017–2018 годов)

The Foreign Agents Registration Act Comes to Light amidst Probe into Russian Election Meddling: An Effort to Crack Down on Foreign Lobbyists or a Sign of Corruption

This article demonstrates that the Foreign Agents Registration Act (“FARA”), which is the United States law that requires “agents” of “foreign principals” to register with the Department of Justice, is deficient. Thus, I propose an amendment that imposes more severe penalties for violations and eliminates exemptions that have allowed politicians, lobbyists and attorneys to avoid the Act’s registration requirements. Additionally, this article examines the flaws in FARA by highlighting how such flaws opened the door for the events surrounding the investigations into Russian meddling in the 2016 United States election.

The Role of Precinct Commissions in Electoral Manipulation in Russia: Does Party Affiliation Matter?

The occurrence of manipulation in Russian elections is highly uneven not just across regions, but also across precincts. Why do some precinct election commissions take part in manipulation while other commissions stay “clean”? Drawing on a new dataset, this study assesses the impact of the party affiliation of precinct election commission members on electoral manipulation in relation to the 2016 State Duma election. The data reveal that, while the composition of most precinct election commission is diverse, United Russia nominees are vastly overrepresented among commission chairs. The study then finds that commissions with a chairperson nominated by United Russia significantly more often reported anomalously high turnout and United Russia vote share than commissions without a United Russia chair. Surprisingly, this is also true for nominees of the other State Duma parties, especially if nominees from these parties jointly with nominees from United Russia occupy the leading positions in the commission. This suggests that nominees from United Russia and other State Duma parties collude to deliver election results that are favorable to the regime.

Demobilizing Voters: Election Turnout in the 2016 Russian Election

Under communism, official election returns suggested that around 99 percent of the electorate voted. Since then, election turnout in Russia has declined dramatically, with the 2016 Duma election recording the lowest level of turnout since democratization. This paper uses national survey data collected just after the 2016 election to test four hypotheses to explain this low turnout, and to evaluate its consequences for party support. The results show that a voter’s resources, the degree of mobilization and his or her sense of efficacy all influence the probability of voting. A belief in electoral integrity also matters, but only insofar as it is related to support for the Putin regime. The level of differential turnout across the regions in the 2016 election was exceptional. Both aggregate and individual level analyses confirm that United Russia gained considerably from the higher turnout that occurred in the remoter regions, and from lower turnout in the urban regions. United Russia has pursued a strategy of voter demobilization in areas of low support, and this explains its continuing electoral success.

Explaining Party Support in the 2016 Russian State Duma Election

Because of the predicable outcomes of recent Russian elections, voters are often characterized as passive actors in the electoral process. However, as we show in this article, political and social factors still underpin the motivations for people’s voting behavior. The article analyzes voting behavior in the 2016 State Duma election, using a post-election, nationally representative survey to assess the differences between the four parliamentary parties’ support bases. It finds that voting decisions in the 2016 election were strongly related to voters’ attitudes to the national president, Vladimir Putin, as well as to their attitudes to corruption and the economic situation. Voters who were more positive to the president and viewed the economic crisis more benignly were more likely to vote for the ‘party of power’, United Russia. Moreover, the four parties’ electorates had distinctive social profiles that were consistent with long-term patterns established in previous State Duma elections.

Voting and conformity: Russia, 1993–2016

Past research has showed the strong influence of social norms and conformity on voting choices in the national elections of many countries, with some more affected than others. This research demonstrates that social conformity has strongly and increasingly affected parliamentary elections in Russia. The analysis tests and estimates a mathematical model of the collective effect of conformity on people’s voting choices in each parliamentary election from 1993 to 2016 at the regional level using cross-sectional regression analysis. The analysis shows that voting and the party system are approaching the typical voting patterns seen in many democracies. Remarkably, voters typically are not aware of the influence of conformity on their own voting decisions.

Worst Election Ever in Russia?

Election forensics analysis shows extensive signs of extensive frauds in the Russian 2016 Duma election. The frequency and magnitude frauds are worse than in any Russian national election since 2000.

I will survive: regional chief executives (governors) and the principal-agent paradigm after the abolition of gubernatorial elections in Russia

This article applies the principal-agent paradigm to explain the survival factors for Russian regional governors between the abolition of gubernatorial elections in Russia, in 2005, and the reinstatement of elections in 2012. By introducing a model derived from the principal-agent paradigm, the article argues that the governors’ support for the dominant party was a key survival factor. The analyses reveal the gradual replacement of experienced political leaders with loyal bureaucrats. The Kremlin has thus, prepared a team of loyal players who can run their regions in full accordance with Kremlin policy even after the reinstatement of elections.

Political elite of modern Russia: crisis of formation

Author analyzes the practice of functioning of political elite of modern Russia, the phenomenon of high rating of one of its actors and the crisis of alternative political leaders. The article pays special attention to the existing, in accordance with the Constitution of the Russian Federation, the breadth of presidential powers. Separately discusses the features of current and in General closed for the controlled companies to the private process of formation of the Russian political elite. According to the author, this process takes the form of selection of candidates by a narrow circle of senior officials for subjective reasons, in connection with which the political elite even more segregated from the controlled companies and rising to a new, unattainable level of elitism. Referring to the existing practice of the presidential elections in Russia in the early 90-ies of XX century to the present focuses on the stagnation of the political opposition, lack of political competition among major political parties and their low electoral support in view of the existing political absenteeism. In the article the author considers the historical context of the formation of elite groups and privileged minorities, and draws attention to features of technocratic parliamentarism, which is inherent in States with a parliamentary form of government and does not implement at present in Russia, with its prevailing system of governance by public authorities. In conclusion, the special attention of author is turned on the existing in society political absenteeism, latent protest potential and, as a consequence, the request for the renewal of political elites, particularly in the framework of the upcoming presidential elections of the Russian Federation in 2018, the participation of new candidates. According to the author of the inventory of such social demand companies will allow to stop the risks enhance the destructive part of economic and regional political elite, will enhance the possibility of rotation of political elites, strengthen the role of civil society institutions and lead to the reproduction of an authoritative political leaders.

The use of media opportunities during the presidential elections in Russia in 1996 and 2000

The use of media opportunities during the presidential elections in Russia in 1996 and 2000

Bolotnajarörelsen: politisk kultur, identitet och mobilisering

[The Bolotnaya movement: political culture, identity and mobilization] In December 2011, international attention was drawn to the parliamentary elections in Russia that caused numerous accusations of electoral fraud and generated a wave of protests not seen in the country since the 1990s. The consequences of the “Movement for fair elections” (also called the Bolotnaya movement and the Snow revolution) were profound for the society at large even though the protests of 2011–2012 did not lead to democratization of the political system as its goals intended. Aleksej Sachnin’s article traces the forms and mechanisms of mass mobilization around the movement, its social base and collective identity. Sachnin demonstrates that the oppositional and state-affiliated elites attempted to integrate the movement into the populist political agenda they represented. At the same time, the movement demonstrated an enormous potential for grassroots activism, based on horizontal organizational structures and a preference for specific (and often pragmatic) forms of activities. The movement’s diversity generated different forms of collective identities, which in the end became the decisive weakness of the movement. Publication history: Published original. (Published 8 February 2017) Citation: Sachnin, Aleksej (2017) “Bolotnajarörelsen: politisk kultur, identitet och mobilisering”, in Från perestrojka till Bolotnaja. Utvecklingen av ett ryskt civilsamhälle , special issue of Arkiv. Tidskrift för samhällsanalys , issue 7, pp. 93–127. DOI: https://doi.org/10.13068/2000-6217.7.3

The Problems of the Electoral Law of Russia

The article contains an analysis of some problems of the electoral law of the Russian Federation, undertaken on the basis of scientific works of N.A. Mikhaleva. There is a conclusion about the necessity of including in the text of the Constitution of the Russian Federation of separate chapter regulating the Organization and conduct of the elections in Russia. The author considers it appropriate at the constitutional level to consolidate the principles of suffrage for all levels of elections (voluntariness, freedom of citizen participation at elections, their frequency and alternativeness, etc.); outline the types of electoral systems used in all elections, securing, for example, that the legislative (representative) organs of State power and bodies of local self-government shall be carried out using a mixed electoral system (majority-proportional); listed in the Constitution of the Russian Federation all those elections, which were conducted at the Federal and regional levels; fasten the exhaustive list of restrictions associated with the realization of the electoral rights of citizens. The article concludes that there is a need for further improvements to the legislation on political parties as one of the most important subjects of the electoral process.

Similar or Different? Exploring the Gap between Federal and Regional Elections in Russia

This research is focused on the issue of differences in results received in elections for regional and federal legislatures that are held according to the proportional system. In particular, the question of whether the authorities’ decision to favour the combination of synchronous regional and federal elections has proved effective. This research showed that, in simultaneous elections held at different territorial levels, United Russia always delivers better results at a federal level than at a regional level, while oppositional parties, conversely, perform better at a regional level than they do at a federal level. This can be explained by the phenomenon of strategic voting, according to which voters prefer to cast their votes for more stable and major players in federal elections, and that they are more likely to vote sincerely in regional elections. However, in separate elections these trends are not retained, and United Russia in particular has been noted to perform better in regional campaigns held during the inter-election period, than it did in the preceding and subsequent federal elections. Analysis of the degree of competitiveness showed that differences in the level of competitiveness in federal and regional elections are almost always lower in combined elections than in separate elections.

Использование возможностей средств массовой информации при проведении выборов Президента РФ в 1996 и 2000 годах

Использование возможностей средств массовой информации при проведении выборов Президента РФ в 1996 и 2000 годах

Testing for sources of electoral competition under authoritarianism: an analysis of Russia’s gubernatorial elections

What drives electoral competition in competitive authoritarian regimes? Most scholarship has assumed that the outcome of these elections is decided by regime manipulation alone. Using three rounds of newly reinstated gubernatorial elections in Russia’s regions, I test this assumption. I identify three distinct measures of competition calibrated to authoritarian elections and assess whether voter preferences or regime manipulation best explain the degree of electoral competition. Relying on new data on protests across Russia’s regions, I find that regions with high protest activity have more contested elections with narrower margins of victory. The results also confirm recent scholarship highlighting the importance of voter turnout for delivering pro-regime victories.