Possible Effects Of Climate Change Research Articles

Estimating the potential impact of climate change on sunflower yield in the Konya province of Turkey

AbstractThe impact of climate change on agricultural productivity is difficult to assess. However, determining the possible effects of climate change is an absolute necessity for planning by decision-makers. The aim of the study was the evaluation of the CSM-CROPGRO-Sunflower model of DSSAT4.7 and the assessment of impact of climate change on sunflower yield under future climate projections. For this purpose, a 2-year sunflower field experiment was conducted under semi-arid conditions in the Konya province of Turkey. Rainfed and irrigated treatments were used for model analysis. For the assessment of impact of climate change, three global climate models and two representative concentration pathways, i.e. 4.5 and 8.5 were selected. The evaluation of the model showed that the model was able to simulate yield reasonably well, with normalized root mean square error of 1.3% for the irrigated treatment and 17.7% for the rainfed treatment, a d-index of 0.98 and a modelling efficiency of 0.93 for the overall model performance. For the climate change scenarios, the model predicted that yield will decrease in a range of 2.9–39.6% under rainfed conditions and will increase in a range of 7.4–38.5% under irrigated conditions. Results suggest that temperature increases due to climate change will cause a shortening of plant growth cycles. Projection results also confirmed that increasing temperatures due to climate change will cause an increase in sunflower water requirements in the future. Thus, the results reveal the necessity to apply adequate water management strategies for adaptation to climate change for sunflower production.

Pollen viability of Euro-Mediterranean orchids under different storage conditions: The possible effects of climate change.

The future impact of climate change and a warmer world is a matter of great concern. We therefore aimed to evaluate the effects of temperature on pollen viability and fruit set of Mediterranean orchids. The in vitro and controlled pollination experiments were performed to evaluate the ability of pollinia stored at lower and higher temperatures to germinate and produce fruits and seeds containing viable embryos. In all of the examined orchids, pollen stored at -20°C remained fully viable for up to 3years, reducing its percentage germination from year 4 onwards. Pollinia stored at higher temperatures had a drastic reduction in vitality after 2days at 41-44°C, while pollinia stored at 47-50°C did not show any pollen tube growth. The different levels of pollen viability duration among the examined orchids can be related to their peculiar reproductive biology and pollination ecology. The germinability of pollinia stored at lower temperatures for long periods suggests that orchid pollinia can be conserved ex situ. In contrast, higher temperatures can have harmful effects on the vitality of pollen and consequently on reproductive success of the plants. To our knowledge, this is the first report demonstrating the effects of global change on orchid pollen, and on pollen ability to tolerate, or not, higher air temperatures. Although vegetative reproduction allows orchids to survive a few consecutive warm years, higher temperatures for several consecutive years can have dramatic effects on reproductive success of orchids.

Governing the Nile Under Climatic Uncertainty: The Need for a Climate-Proof Basin- Wide Treaty

Climate change is projected to have catastrophic impacts on the hydrological cycle. Water availability, quantity, and demand will be affected. Existing studies and climate change models are commonly predicting increases in average annual temperature in the Nile Basin, leading to greater water loss due to evaporation. There is much less certainty in projections concerning future rainfall, river flows, and water availability in the Nile Basin. Studies concerning the later find contradictory results; one predicts floods and increased runoff, and the other predicts water scarcity and possible droughts. Proper governance of the Nile in the face of these uncertainties demands a response to two contradictory scenarios: either an increase in water availability and flooding or water scarcity and drought; each of which requires opposite adaptation strategies. Building flexible and resilient legal and institutional arrangements will no doubt be at the heart of such adaptation strategies. If climate change reduces the available water in the Nile Basin, competition for water between the Nile Basin States will intensify, possibly leading to conflict. If the available water resources increase due to climate change, this will create a need for a new legal response to flooding. In either case, flexibility is crucial in adapting to climate change. Drawing upon key findings from recent climate change modeling studies, this article analyses the intrinsic capacity of the fragmented legal regime governing the Nile watercourse to adapt to climate change. The article submits that the legal instruments governing the Nile watercourse do not possess the flexibility required for addressing the possible consequences of climate change. Indicating how flexibility can be built in the Nile watercourse treaties, the article proposes a climate-proofed basin-wide treaty.

Possible Effects of Climate Change on Ixodid Ticks and the Pathogens They Transmit: Predictions and Observations.

The global climate has been changing over the last century due to greenhouse gas emissions and will continue to change over this century, accelerating without effective global efforts to reduce emissions. Ticks and tick-borne diseases (TTBDs) are inherently climate-sensitive due to the sensitivity of tick lifecycles to climate. Key direct climate and weather sensitivities include survival of individual ticks, and the duration of development and host-seeking activity of ticks. These sensitivities mean that in some regions a warming climate may increase tick survival, shorten life-cycles and lengthen the duration of tick activity seasons. Indirect effects of climate change on host communities may, with changes in tick abundance, facilitate enhanced transmission of tick-borne pathogens. High temperatures, and extreme weather events (heat, cold, and flooding) are anticipated with climate change, and these may reduce tick survival and pathogen transmission in some locations. Studies of the possible effects of climate change on TTBDs to date generally project poleward range expansion of geographical ranges (with possible contraction of ranges away from the increasingly hot tropics), upslope elevational range spread in mountainous regions, and increased abundance of ticks in many current endemic regions. However, relatively few studies, using long-term (multi-decade) observations, provide evidence of recent range changes of tick populations that could be attributed to recent climate change. Further integrated 'One Health' observational and modeling studies are needed to detect changes in TTBD occurrence, attribute them to climate change, and to develop predictive models of public- and animal-health needs to plan for TTBD emergence.

Trend analysis of evapotranspiration over Iran based on NEX‐GDDP high‐resolution dataset

AbstractEstimation of evapotranspiration, representing a highly sensitive variable to global warming, is often required in water resources and agricultural studies. This study explores the possible effects of climate change on evapotranspiration (ETo) across Iran. The ETo was computed using the Penman‐Monteith Temperature (PMT) method that requires only minimum and maximum temperature (Tmin and Tmax), provided by the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections dataset (NEX‐GDDP) with a 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution. Accuracy of the NEX‐GDDP Tmin and Tmax were evaluated against ground truth observations at 41 synoptic weather stations distributed across the country using a set of statistical measures, including the coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). Similarly, the PMT estimated evapotranspiration based on the NEX‐GDDP Tmin and Tmax (ETo‐GDDP) were statistically evaluated against the ETo computed with observed variables at selected stations (ETo‐obs). Then, at each grid cell, the 45‐years ETo‐GDDP time series was partitioned into three 15‐years subperiods such that the differences between three subperiods were computed and inter‐compared. Furthermore, annual, seasonal, and monthly ETo time series trends of each cell were evaluated using the Mann–Kendall trend test (MK) while the corresponding change rates were estimated using Theil–Sen's slope estimator (TSSE). The results demonstrated a good agreement between ETo‐GDDP and ETo‐obs with R2 greater than 0.8 and NSE greater than 0.7 in 90.2% and 65.8% of the stations, respectively. The maps of differences between the three subperiods showed negligible changes in ETo between 1975–1990 and 1950–1975 subperiods. The spatial patterns of annual and seasonal MK statistics showed a significant increasing trend in most parts of Iran. On seasonal scale, the highest and lowest ETo changes were observed in spring (0.00035–0.0045) and in autumn (0.0005–0.0015), respectively.

Seed mass and plant home site environment interact to determine alpine species germination patterns along an elevation gradient

Ongoing changes in temperature and precipitation regime may have a strong impact on vulnerable life-history stages such as germination, especially in alpine regions. Differences in germination patterns among species and populations may reflect their adaptation to conditions of their origin or may be determined by the phylogenetic constraints. These two effects are, however, rarely separated. All the germination patterns may also be modified by seed mass. We studied 40 populations of 14 species of Impatiens coming from different elevations in the Himalayas. Three home site temperatures were simulated and one warmer temperature according to a climate change scenario were used. We also studied the combined effect of shorter stratification and warmer temperature as another possible effect of climate change. Interactions of home site and germination conditions affected total germination and germination speed, but not seed dormancy. Seed mass and home site conditions’ interaction indicated different germination strategies in light and heavy seeds. Only seed mass was affected by phylogenetic relationships among the species, while germination response (except T30) was driven primarily by home site conditions. This study is the first to show that the effect of seed mass interacts with home site conditions in determining species’ germination patterns under changing climate. The differences in seed mass are thus likely crucial for species’ ability to adapt to novel conditions since seed mass, unlike seed germination patterns, is strongly phylogenetically constrained. Further studies exploring how seed mass modifies species’ germination under changing climate are needed to confirm generalisability of these findings.

Using models to inform water policy in a changing climate: comparing the Australian and Uruguayan experiences

Mitigating the expansion of harmful cyanobacterial blooms in Uruguayan catchments is a major challenge facing researchers and decision makers. To make matters worse, these events are expected to occur more often as the climate changes. Taking Australia’s experience as an example, minimising the effect of algal blooms involves a range of catchment land use policy and regulatory measures that are underpinned by comprehensive monitoring systems, hydrological modelling platforms and land suitability analysis considering the effects of climate change. The lack of these technological tools means that policies and regulations cannot be implemented effectively. In this paper, we analyse the effects of climate change on Laguna Del Sauce Catchment (Uruguay) and discuss the effects of a possible new land use configuration defined using approaches typically used in Australia. We identify that the likely future of the catchment, according to biophysical modelling, is in conflict with its likely future as defined by its existing land use trajectory and associated agricultural policy. Our analysis provides new insights into the possible effects of climate change on Laguna Del Sauce, and thus fills an important knowledge gap to inform and amend the current policies and institutional frameworks.

On the vertical distribution of Ips duplicatus, I. cembrae and some bark- and longhorn beetles (col.: curculionidae, Scolytinae; col.: cerambycidae) in the Tatra national Park in Poland

Abstract In 2013–2014, a set of 30 pheromone traps baited with synthetic lures attracting I. duplicatus (Duplodor – 15 traps) and I. cembrae (Cembrodor – 15 traps) was installed in 6 altitudinal transects (1000–1400 m a.s.l., every 100 m of elevation) in the eastern, central and western part of the Tatra National Park (TPN) in Poland and operated during the entire growing season. The main aim of the survey was to check if and to what vertical extent these two species of bark beetles, not yet recorded, are presently distributed in TPN. Collected insects, including non-target Scolytinae and Cerambycidae, were determined. Overall 1896 Scolytid bark beetles belonging to 13 species, all occurring in the whole elevation range, were collected. I. duplicatus (28 specimens in total) was collected in the whole elevation profile, similarly as I. cembrae (718 specimens in total). Among Cerambycidae (282 individuals) belonging to 19 species, Rhagium inquisitor and Pidonia lurida, found on all elevations, were the most abundant; 8 species were collected on the highest locality. Pogonocherus decoratus was found for the first time in the Tatra. Results indicate the upward spreading of the studied insects as a possible effect of climate change and the resulting environmental conditions favourable for those organisms.

Climate anxiety: Psychological responses to climate change

Climate change will affect psychological wellbeing. Substantial research has documented harmful impacts on physical health, mental health, and social relations from exposure to extreme weather events that are associated with climate change. Recently, attention has turned to the possible effects of climate change on mental health through emotional responses such as increased anxiety. This paper discusses the nature of climate anxiety and some evidence for its existence, and speculates about ways to address it. Although climate anxiety appears to be a real phenomenon that deserves clinical attention, it is important to distinguish between adaptive and maladaptive levels of anxiety. A focus on individual mental health should not distract attention from the societal response that is necessary to address climate change.

Papaya mealybug (Paracoccus marginatus) (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae): A new threat to agri-horticulture ecosystem

The papaya mealybug, Paracoccus marginatus Williams and Granara de Willink (Hemiptera: Coccomorpha: Pseudococcidae) is an invasive insect pest of Central American origin that has become a serious threat to about 60 plant species belonging to more than 22 families across the globe. The average life cycle of P. marginatus lasts between 15–32 days depending on host plant species and it can complete about 11–13 generations per year, depending on the temperature and relative humidity. It is of considerable economic importance and causes major losses to both agricultural and horticultural crops. In India, papaya mealybug became a major pest in 2009 with a devastating outbreak in south India. Even though several control methods, such as cultural, chemical, legal and biological control, have been adopted to tackle the problem, only chemical and biological control methods have been widely practised for its management. About 17 predators and 8 host specific parasitoids have been reported to give effective control of P. marginatus. However, the parasitoid Acerophagus papayae Noyes and Schauff (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) has played a predominant role in suppressing P. marginatus, with percentage parasitism in several countries between 75–81%. Owing to papaya mealybugs' polyphagy, wide climatic adaptability and ecological plasticity, it clearly has the potential to invade new areas and host plants and is likely to cause much damage in the future. In this paper, the origin, distribution, taxonomy, bio-ecology, host range, natural enemies, management practices and the possible effects of climate change on P. marginatus are critically reviewed. The information gathered will guide the management of this difficult to control insect pest.

Long-term monitoring of the seasonal density of questing ixodid ticks in Vienna (Austria): setup and first results

The first long-term monitoring to document both activity and density of questing ixodid ticks in Vienna, Austria, is introduced. It was started in 2017 and is planned to run over decades. Such long-term monitorings are needed to quantify possible effects of climate change or to develop tick density forecast models. The monthly questing tick density at three sites has been observed by using a standardized sampling method by dragging an area of 100,hbox {m}^2 at each occasion. Popular recreational areas were chosen as study sites. These are the Prater public park, the wooded Kahlenberg, and a wildlife garden in Klosterneuburg. First results show a 3-year time series of nymphs and adults of the Ixodes ricinus species complex and Haemaphysalis concinna for the period 2017–2019. Whereas questing nymphs of the I. ricinus species complex were collected from February to November, H. concinna nymphs were only dragged from May to October. The peak of nymphal activity of the I. ricinus species complex was in May, that of H. concinna in August. In addition, a brief overview is given about ticks and tick-borne pathogens occurring in urban and suburban areas of Vienna.

Possible Effect of Climate Change on Surface-Water Photochemistry: A Model Assessment of the Impact of Browning on the Photodegradation of Pollutants in Lakes during Summer Stratification. Epilimnion vs. Whole-Lake Phototransformation.

Water browning in lakes (progressive increase of the content of chromophoric dissolved organic matter, CDOM) has the potential to deeply alter the photodegradation kinetics of pollutants during summer stratification. Browning, which takes place as a consequence of climate change in several Nordic environments, causes the thermocline to be shallower, because higher CDOM decreases the penetration of sunlight inside the water column. Using a model approach, it is shown in this paper that pollutants occurring in the epilimnion would be affected differently depending on their main photodegradation pathway(s): almost no change for the direct photolysis, slight decrease in the degradation kinetics by the hydroxyl radicals (•OH, but the resulting degradation would be too slow for the process to be effective during summer stratification), considerable decrease for the carbonate radicals (CO3•−), increase for the excited triplet states of CDOM (3CDOM*) and singlet oxygen (1O2). Because it is difficult to find compounds that are highly reactive with CO3•− and poorly reactive with 3CDOM*, the degradation rate constant of many phenols and anilines would show a minimum with increasing dissolved organic carbon (DOC), because of the combination of decreasing CO3•− and increasing 3CDOM* photodegradation. In contrast, overall photodegradation would always be inhibited by browning when the whole water column (epilimnion + hypolimnion) is considered, either because of slower degradation kinetics in the whole water volume, or even at unchanged overall kinetics, because of unbalanced distribution of photoreactivity within the water column.

Effects of climate change and human influence in the distribution and range overlap between two widely distributed avian scavengers

SummaryClimate change can cause geographic displacement of the ecological niche of a species, so that similar species that previously did not coexist could begin to face new interactions. Such geographic displacement and increased competition can also be exacerbated by anthropic intervention. Until less than 100 years ago,Vultur gryphusandCoragyps atratusdid not coexist. Nowadays, possibly as a result of climate change, changes in the distributions of both species created areas where they are now sympatric. Through ecological niche modeling, we evaluated the possible effects that future scenarios of climate change and human influence would have on the distribution and sympatry between the two species. Our models predict that the current distribution ofV. gryphuswill be reduced between 18% and 24% by 2050 and between 21% and 32% by 2070. Additionally, they predict that the distribution ofC. atratuswill be reduced by 31–52% by the year 2050 and 15–60% by 2070. The two algorithms predict a reduction in the areas of sympatry. However, for the northern Andes the overlap between the two species will increase, reaching up to 70% in the year 2070. The distribution ofC. atratuswill move towards higher areas in the altitudinal gradient, and this will generate an increase in the current sympatry between both species. No clear trend was observed on the effect of human influences on the areas of overlap between the scenarios evaluated. The possible effects of climate change and anthropic intervention in future scenarios found in this study highlight the need to include these effects in future analyses and conservation programs ofV. gryphusand other threatened vultures.

Barley or black oat silages in feeding strategies for small-scale dairy systems in the highlands of Mexico

High costs from external inputs in small-scale dairy systems (SSDS) and possible effects of climate change, require forage alternatives as silage for the dry season, from small-grain cereals that have short cropping cycles, winter hardiness, and good nutritional quality. The objective was to assess the provision of 10 kg dry matter (DM) cow−1d−1of barley (BLY) or black oat (BKO) silages in three treatments: T1 = 100% BLY; T2 = 50% BLY + 50% BKO; T3 = 100% BKO for milking cows. All treatments also received 4.6 kg DM cow−1d−1of concentrates and access to pasture. Nine Holstein cows in groups of three were randomly assigned to a 3 × 3 Latin square design repeated three times, with 14 d experimental periods. Measurements of animal variables and sampling for chemical analyses of feeds were done during the last 4 d of each period. Feeding costs were by partial budgets. There were no differences (P > 0.05) for milk yield, milk fat and protein content, milk urea nitrogen, body condition score, or live weight. The cost of BLY silage was 8% less than BKO silage. T1 had the higher margin over cost of feeds followed by T2. Both silages alone or in combination are viable options for SSDS, as there were no differences in performance, or in feeding costs or margins.

Elevated air temperature shifts the interactions between plants and endophytic fungal entomopathogens in an agroecosystem

Abstract The possible effects of climate change on species interactions remain a very complex and challenging subject in community ecology. Here, we comparatively examine the interactions between maize (Zea mays) and an endophytic fungal entomopathogen (Beauveria bassiana) in a typical agroecosystem under both ambient and elevated air temperatures. We found that under ambient temperature certain key biological characteristics in maize (i.e., height, relative growth rate, biomass, and defense enzymes) and B. bassiana (i.e., conidia yield, germination rate of conidia, and virulence) were positively related to each other. Under elevated air temperature, however, we only detected positive effects of maize on B. bassiana (i.e., conidia yield, germination rate of conidia, and virulence), but little effect of B. bassiana on maize. These observations suggest that elevated air temperature could shift the interactions between plants and the endophytic fungal entomopathogens, possibly even from mutualism to commensalism. Both the nature and strength of species interactions are important for better understanding and predicting structure and stability of ecological communities in agroecosystems under climate change.

Possible Effects of Climate Change on Weeds in Agriculture

In recent years, activities such as rapid population growth, industrialization, urbanization and unconscious consumption of natural sources, have many negative effects on natural balance. As a result of these negativities, environmental problems arise. Global warming is one of the environmental problems faced today. Global warming can be defined as, the process of overheating of the Earth more than it should be due to greenhouse gases, such as H 2 O (water vapor), CO 2 (carbon dioxide) and CH 4 (methane), slight prevention of sunlight reflecting from the Earth to the space. It is inevitable that, the rise of CO 2 concentration due to the global warming and the changes in the precipitation regime and amount because of the heat will affect plants as a whole. As a matter of fact, different researchers presented that the climate change and increase in CO 2 concentration cause alteration in plant growth, the rise in carbon dioxide affect the progress of cultivated plants in a positive way whereas, the rise in the heat and ozone affect the progress in a negative way. As a result of global warming, it can be thought that increasing CO 2 amount will increase crop production in general. However, the existence of weeds, which cause serious losses in productivity and quality, refute this opinion. The genetic variability of the weeds, which are constantly competing against cultivated plants in terms of light and place, is quite rich when compared with cultivated plants. Therefore, they can adapt to any changes that occur in the environment. Ultimately, cultivated plants would be affected more by the differences caused by global warming. Moreover, as a result of climate change, the decrease in the event of herbicide activity, an effective weapon against the weeds, will make weeds much bigger matter.

The climate change beliefs fallacy: the influence of climate change beliefs on the perceived consequences of climate change

Despite scientific agreement about the anthropogenic cause of climate change, the general public holds different beliefs regarding the causes of climate change. Some believe climate change to be caused by natural processes, while others believe it to be caused by human activities. People’s beliefs regarding the causes of climate change drive both their risk perception and their mitigation behavior, and such beliefs are not easy to alter. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how these beliefs shape people’s perception of the consequences of climate change. We find that beliefs regarding the causes of climate change can lead to different perceptions of the possible consequences of climate change. People who believed climate change to be caused by human activities rather than by natural processes perceived the consequences of the 2017 hurricanes to be worse, as well as to cause more suffering, than people who believed climate change to be caused by natural processes. These results suggest a fallacy, since the suffering of people and animals affected by hurricanes does not depend on the causes of those hurricanes, but rather on the damage that is caused. With regard to communication, it is important to link the currently observable events possible caused by climate change to human behavior, since doing so may increase people’s awareness of the severity of the consequences of anthropogenic climate change and, thus, possibly also their willingness to engage in mitigation behavior and prevention measures.

Transforming Urban Systems

Transforming Urban Systems

Sensitivity of the summer upper ocean heat content in a Western Antarctic Peninsula fjord

On the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), fjords make up most of the interface between the ocean and the cryosphere, and they are hotspots of biological productivity and biodiversity. Changes in the summer upper ocean (50 m) heat content, H, of a fjord could directly affect primary productivity and melting of icebergs and glacial fronts. Using the adjoint of a high-resolution Regional Ocean Model System model, we quantify the key drivers controlling changes in H to understand the summertime characteristics and potential climatic impacts. Results show that the summertime warming is mainly driven by the surface heat flux, and can be enhanced by inward along-fjord winds or northeastward winds along Gerlache strait. Opposite wind perturbations lead to a reduction of H. We learned that the sensitivity to the along-strait winds relates to the exchange of heat between the fjord and the strait, with the strait being a major heat source for the fjord in the unperturbed conditions. The sensitivity analysis of the most influential regional water masses identifies upper ocean waters from the north (<200 m) as the dominant driver. We also find that two possible consequences of climate change, warming air temperature and increasing meltwater input could have opposing effects on H. The additional meltwater leads to a cooling of the fjord that is mainly caused by a reduced import of heat from the strait. It follows that future increases of meltwater input (e.g. increased runoff) could play a crucial role for the fjord’s upper ocean physics and potentially its ecosystem.

Candida auris, an Agent of Hospital-Associated Outbreaks: Which Challenging Issues Do We Need to Have in Mind?

The emergence of Candida auris is considered as one of the most serious problems associated with nosocomial transmission and with infection control practices in hospital environment. This multidrug resistant species is rapidly spreading worldwide, with several described outbreaks. Until now, this species has been isolated from different hospital surfaces, where it can survive for long periods. There are multiple unanswered questions regarding C. auris, such as prevalence in population, environmental contamination, effectiveness of infection prevention and control, and impact on patient mortality. In order to understand how it spreads and discover possible reservoirs, it is essential to know the ecology, natural environment, and distribution of this species. It is also important to explore possible reasons to this recent emergence, namely the environmental presence of azoles or the possible effect of climate change on this sudden emergence. This review aims to discuss some of the most challenging issues that we need to have in mind in the management of C. auris and to raise the awareness to its presence in specific indoor environments as hospital settings.