Using models to inform water policy in a changing climate: comparing the Australian and Uruguayan experiences

Abstract

Mitigating the expansion of harmful cyanobacterial blooms in Uruguayan catchments is a major challenge facing researchers and decision makers. To make matters worse, these events are expected to occur more often as the climate changes. Taking Australia’s experience as an example, minimising the effect of algal blooms involves a range of catchment land use policy and regulatory measures that are underpinned by comprehensive monitoring systems, hydrological modelling platforms and land suitability analysis considering the effects of climate change. The lack of these technological tools means that policies and regulations cannot be implemented effectively. In this paper, we analyse the effects of climate change on Laguna Del Sauce Catchment (Uruguay) and discuss the effects of a possible new land use configuration defined using approaches typically used in Australia. We identify that the likely future of the catchment, according to biophysical modelling, is in conflict with its likely future as defined by its existing land use trajectory and associated agricultural policy. Our analysis provides new insights into the possible effects of climate change on Laguna Del Sauce, and thus fills an important knowledge gap to inform and amend the current policies and institutional frameworks.