Ecological Protection Scenario Research Articles

Spatio-temporal variation and prediction of land use and carbon storage based on PLUS-InVEST model in Shanxi Province, China

AbstractCoal mining in Shanxi Province for many years has caused regional land-use changes, seriously affecting the local ecological environment. To promote the green and sustainable development of this area and achieve the goal of “double carbon”, the PLUS-InVEST model was used to analyze the nearly 20 year land-use types transfer and carbon storage changes in the region based on the five periods of land-use data of Shanxi Province from 2002 to 2022 in this study. Three scenarios were set up to predict the data in 2032, and the driving forces of spatial differentiation of the carbon storage were analyzed by geographical detector. The results showed that: (1) Land-use change had an important impact on carbon storage. Construction land in Shanxi Province expanded by 3068.47 km2 from 2002 to 2022, an increase of 59.33%, and the rest of the land types, except for forest, continued to decrease, resulting in a decline in total carbon storage of 228.88 × 104 t. (2) The natural development scenario shows the same transfer of land as before in 2032. Under the urban development scenario, the expansion of construction land in Shanxi Province is the largest, and carbon storage decreases instead of increasing; under the ecological protection scenario forest and grassland increase, and carbon storage increase the most, with a value of 738.67 × 104 t. (3) The dominant driving factors for the spatial differentiation of carbon storage in Shanxi Province were the land-use degree comprehensive index and night light index, with the explanatory power of 0.866 and 0.755, respectively, and the interaction of the land-use degree comprehensive index with other factors had the most significant effect on the change of carbon storage. The study suggested that the expansion of construction land into high carbon storage categories was the main reason for the loss of carbon storage, and Shanxi Province should optimize the land-use structure and adopt ecological protection works to increase carbon storage effectively.

Ecological protection makes the ecological Kuznets curve turning point come earlier

Exploring the relationship between land use cover/change (LUCC) and ecosystem service value (ESV) under different future scenarios can provide guidance for selecting future development patterns and for the scientific utilization of land resources in the region. In this study, LUCC under different scenarios in the North Slope of Tianshan Mountain (NSTM) was simulated using the PLUS model. The ESV coefficients were adjusted for regional differences and social development factors to better reflect the actual situation in the study area. The interactions between LUCC, landscape pattern (LSP), and ESV were systematically analyzed, while at the same time, ESV and the level of economic development were fitted to the Ecological Kuznets Curve, which was then used to determine its trend and inflection point. The following conclusions were drawn: (1) Cropland and unused land are the main types of land use change in the NSTM, both historically and in the future. Cropland shows an increase in the natural development scenario and a decrease in the ecological protection scenario. Unused land shows an increase in the different development scenarios, indicating that unused land has higher development potential in the NSTM. NSTM shows a continuous decrease in ESV in the natural development scenario and a continuous increase in ESV in the ecological protection scenario. (2) LSP in both historical and future NSTM have evolved to show fragmentation, heterogeneity, and complexity in patch forms. However, this trend is slower in the ecological protection scenario than in the natural development scenario. LUCC, LSP, and ESV form an integrated framework of interactions, where LUCC influences ESV through LSP, and changes in ESV feedback to LUCC through LSP, which acts as a bridging mediator. (3) The Ecological Kuznets Curve of NSTM exhibits an N-shape, showing a clear overall rightward trend across different development scenarios at the annual level. At the interannual level, the curves for the natural development scenario are situated in the middle of the declining phase of the N-shape, with no ecological inflection point occurring during the study period. In contrast, the curves for the ecological protection scenario display a declining-ascending trend, with the ecological inflection point occurring when per capita GDP reaches 2.5 × 10^6 CNY.

How to Achieve the Ecological Sustainability Goal of Ecologically Fragile Areas on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: A Multi-Scenario Simulation of Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomerations

The future of the ecologically fragile areas on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is a matter of concern. With the implementation of the Western Development Strategy, the Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomeration (LXUA) has encountered conflicts and compromises between urban expansion, ecological protection, and farmland protection policies in the rapid development of the past 2 decades. These deeply affect the land use layout, making the ecological sustainable development of the ecologically fragile areas of the QTP a complex and urgent issue. Exploring the impact of different policy-led land use patterns on regional ecosystem services is of great significance for the sustainable development of ecologically fragile areas and the formulation of relevant policies. Following the logical main line of “history-present-future”, the Patch-level Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, which explores potential factors of historical land use, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model were used to construct three future scenarios for the modernization stage in 2031 dominated by different land use policies in this study. These scenarios include the Business-as-Usual Scenario (BS), the Cropland Protection Scenario (CP), and the Ecological Protection Scenario (EP). The study analyzed and predicted land use changes in the LXUA from 2001 to 2031 and assessed carbon storage, habitat quality at different time points, and water yield in 2021. The results indicated that land use changes from 2001 to 2021 reflect the impacts and conflicts among the Western Development Strategy, ecological protection policies, and cropland preservation policies. In 2031, construction land continues to increase under all three scenarios, expanding northwards around Lanzhou, consistent with the actual “northward expansion” trend of Lanzhou City. Changes in other land uses are in line with the directions guided by land use policy. By 2031, carbon storage and habitat quality decline under all scenarios, with the highest values observed in the EP scenario, the lowest carbon storage in the BS scenario, and the lowest habitat quality in the CP scenario. Regarding water yield, the LXUA primarily relies on alpine snowmelt, with construction land overlapping high evapotranspiration areas. Based on the assessment of ecosystem services, urban expansion, delineation of ecological red lines, and improvement of cropland quality in the LXUA were proposed. These findings and recommendations can provide a scientific basis for policy makers and planning managers in the future.

Spatiotemporal Pattern Analysis and Prediction of Carbon Storage Based on Land Use and Cover Change: A Case Study of Jiangsu Coastal Cities in China

Accurate estimation of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and the scientific formulation of ecological conservation and land use policies are essential for promoting regional low-carbon sustainable development and achieving the goal of “carbon neutrality.” In this study, the FLUS–InVEST model was used to evaluate the carbon stocks of the Jiangsu coastal zone in China from 1995 to 2020 and scientifically forecast the changes in carbon stocks in 2030 under three scenarios: natural exploitation, ecological protection, and economic development. The results are as follows: (1) From 1995 to 2020, carbon storage in the coastal zone initially remained stable before declining, a trend closely linked to the accelerated urbanization and economic growth of Jiangsu Province. (2) By 2030, carbon storage under the three scenarios exhibits a pattern of “S1 decrease–S2 increase–S3 decrease,” with a more significant increase in construction land under the natural development and economic development scenarios compared to the ecological protection scenario. (3) The sensitivity of carbon storage to land use changes varies across scenarios. In the natural development scenario, carbon storage is most affected by forest reduction and construction land expansion. In the ecological protection scenario, it is more responsive to increases in non-construction land. In the economic development scenario, the expansion of construction land leads to the most significant decrease in carbon storage. Therefore, when formulating future territorial spatial planning policies and urban development strategies, it is essential to consider ecological protection and economic development scenarios comprehensively, taking into account carbon sequestration capabilities. This approach will ensure effective conservation and restoration of damaged ecosystems while safeguarding the robust development of urban economies and societies.

A Simulation-Based Prediction of Land Use Change Impacts on Carbon Storage from a Regional Imbalance Perspective: A Case Study of Hunan Province, China

Land use imbalances are a critical driving factor contributing to regional disparities in carbon storage (CS). As a significant component of China’s Yangtze River Economic Belt, Hunan Province has undergone substantial shifts in land use types, resulting in an uneven distribution of ecosystem CS and sequestration capacity. Therefore, within the framework of the “dual carbon” strategy, examining the effects of land use changes driven by regional resource imbalances on CS holds practical importance for advancing regional sustainable development. This study focuses on Hunan Province, utilizing the PLUS-InVEST model to assess the spatiotemporal evolution of CS under land use changes from 1990 to 2020. Additionally, multiple scenario-based development modes were employed to predict county-level CS. The results indicate the following: (1) From 1990 to 2020, Hunan Province experienced continuous urban expansion, with forest land and cultivated land, which are core ecological land types, being converted into construction land. (2) Over these 30 years, the province’s total CS increased by 2.47 × 108 t, with significant spatial differentiation. High-value zones were concentrated in bands along the province’s borders, while lower values were observed in the central and northern regions. The highest CS values were recorded in forested areas at the province’s periphery, whereas the lowest values were observed in the northern water bodies. (3) The scenario-based predictions revealed notable differences, with the ecological protection scenario demonstrating a substantial carbon sink effect. By prioritizing forest and cultivated land, CS could be maximized. This research provides valuable insights for enhancing CS and optimizing land use structures in regions facing resource imbalances.

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use and Assessment of Carbon Stocks in Terrestrial Ecosystems Based on SD-PLUS-InVEST Coupled Modeling in Nanjing City

In the context of achieving the goal of carbon neutrality, exploring the changes in land demand and ecological carbon stocks under future scenarios at the urban level is important for optimizing regional ecosystem services and developing a land-use structure consistent with sustainable development strategies. We propose a framework of a coupled system dynamics (SD) model, patch generation land-use simulation (PLUS) model, and integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model to dynamically simulate the spatial and temporal changes of land use and land-cover change (LUCC) and ecosystem carbon stocks under the NDS (natural development scenario), EPS (ecological protection scenario), RES (rapid expansion scenario), and HDS (high-quality development scenario) in Nanjing from 2020 to 2040. From 2005 to 2020, the expansion rate of construction land in Nanjing reached 50.76%, a large amount of ecological land shifted to construction land, and the ecological carbon stock declined dramatically. Compared with 2020, the ecosystem carbon stocks of the EPS and HDS increased by 2.4 × 106 t and 1.5 × 106 t, respectively, with a sizable ecological effect. It has been calculated that forest and cultivated land are the two largest carbon pools in Nanjing, and the conservation of both is decisive for the future carbon stock. It is necessary to focus on enhancing the carbon stock of forest ecosystems while designating differentiated carbon sink enhancement plans based on the characteristics of other land types. Fully realizing the carbon sink potential of each ecological functional area will help Nanjing achieve its carbon neutrality goal. The results of the study not only reveal the challenges of ecological conservation in Nanjing but also provide useful guidance for enhancing the carbon stock of urban terrestrial ecosystems and formulating land-use planning in line with sustainable development strategies.

Impacts of land use and land cover change on the landscape pattern and ecosystem services in the Poyang Lake Basin, China

ContextDecades of intensifying human activities have led to drastic changes in land use and land cover (LULC) in the Poyang Lake Basin (PLB), resulting in significant changes in landscape pattern and ecosystem service value (ESV), thereby affecting regional sustainability.ObjectivesWe focused on understanding the impact of LULC changes on the landscape pattern and ESV of the PLB and used the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation model (PLUS) to predict LULC changes in 2050.MethodsWe evaluated landscape patterns using landscape metrics and calculated ESV using the ecosystem service equivalent factor method. The Pearson correlation coefficient was used to analyze the correlation between landscape patterns and ESV from 1990 to 2020. Then, we combined the PLUS model and the ecosystem service equivalent factor method to calculate the ESV under multiple scenarios from 2020 to 2050.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2020, the LULC of the PLB changed to varying degrees. The PLB has undergone a rapid process of landscape fragmentation, and the total ESV of the PLB has decreased. The total ESV was positively correlated with the CONTAG index and negatively correlated with the SHDI index. Between 2020 and 2050, the ESV of the PLB is projected to decrease under the NDS (nature development scenario) and EDS (economic development scenario) and increase under the EPS (ecological protection scenario).ConclusionsESV responded to changes in landscape pattern. We recommend that the PLB should increase patch connectivity. Additionally, future development in the PLB should prioritize ecological protection to prevent further declines in ESV.

The Gains and Losses of Cultivated Land Requisition–Compensation Balance: Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Trade-Offs and Synergies in Ecosystem Services Using Hubei Province as a Case Study

The cultivated land requisition–compensation balance (CLRCB) policy is an important policy implemented by China to address the reduction in cultivated land and ensure food security. Although this policy has alleviated the loss of cultivated land quantity, it has had complex and diverse impacts on ecosystem services. Taking Hubei Province as the study area, this research explores the impact of the implementation of the CLRCB on ecosystem services and simulates the changes in ecosystem services in the study area in 2030 and the impact of CLRCB on the interactions among various services. The results show the following: (1) from 2000 to 2020, Hubei Province achieved a balance in the quantity of cultivated land through excessive compensation but failed to reach the goals of balancing cultivated land yield and productivity. (2) During the requisition–compensation process, habitat quality decreased by 501,862, and carbon storage lost 1.3 × 107 t, indicating negative ecological impacts; soil conservation services increased by 184.2 × 106 t, and water production increased by 21.29.3 × 108 m3. Within the cultivated land requisition–compensation area, habitat quality and carbon storage, as well as soil conservation and water production, exhibited synergistic relationships, while the remaining pairs of ecosystem services showed trade-off relationships. (3) The simulation of ecosystem services in 2030 indicates that soil conservation and water production are highest under the natural development scenario, while habitat quality and carbon storage are highest under the ecological protection scenario, both of which are superior to the urban development scenario. Under the natural development scenario, the trade-off and synergistic relationships among various ecosystem services in the cultivated land requisition–compensation area remain unchanged, while these relationships change significantly under the other two scenarios. This study emphasizes that future CLRCB should not only focus on maintaining the quantity of cultivated land but also consider the comprehensive benefits of ecosystem services, in order to achieve sustainable land-use management and ecological conservation.

Land Cover Simulation and Carbon Storage Assessment in Daqing City based on FLUS-InVEST Model

Considering Daqing City as the research area, the impact of land cover change on carbon storage in the future was discussed, and the hot spots of carbon sequestration capacity were identified. The future land use simulation （FLUS） model was used to simulate the land cover pattern of a natural succession scenario, ecological protection scenario, urban development scenario, and comprehensive development scenario in 2030, and the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs （InVEST） model was combined to estimate carbon storage in 2010, 2020, and 2030. Finally, the hot spot analysis tool was used to identify the cold hot spots of carbon sequestration capacity. The results showed the following： ① From 2010 to 2020, the area of cultivated land, water, and artificial surface increased, whereas the area of other land cover types decreased, and the total carbon storage decreased by 8.6×105 t. ② The land cover change of the natural succession scenario and urban development scenario in 2030 was similar to that of 2010-2020, with carbon storage decreasing by 1.16×106 t and 1.20×106 t, respectively. The carbon storage of the comprehensive development scenario decreased by 1.00×106 t compared with that in 2020, and carbon storage of the ecological protection scenario was 5.677 7×108 t, which increased by 2.53×106 t compared with that in 2020. ③ The conversion of grassland and wetland to cultivated land was the main cause of carbon storage loss, and the main contributor of carbon storage in the ecological protection scenarios was wetland. ④ The hot spots of carbon sequestration capacity were mainly located in the wetland area, and the cold spots were mainly distributed in the central part of Daqing City. The carbon sequestration capacity of cultivated land was not significant. According to the research results, to realize the urban transformation of Daqing City, we should insist on returning farmland to forest and grass, increase the intensity of returning moisture, improve the utilization rate of urban land, and increase green infrastructure in the main urban area.

Spatial-temporal Change and Driving Force of Carbon Storage in Three-River-Source National Park Based on PLUS-InVEST-Geodector Model

Exploring the spatial-temporal changes, driving forces, and future development tendency of the carbon sequestration service function of the Three-River-Source National Park ecosystem has great significance for regional ecological protection and sustainable development. Historical land-use data of Three-River-Source National Park from 1990 to 2020 were selected at five-year intervals, and based on the PLUS-InVEST-Geodector model, the spatial-temporal changes of historical carbon storage were analyzed, and the driving forces of spatial-temporal variation were explored combined with multiple factors. The carbon storage of Three-River-Source National Park in 2030 was predicted under the scenarios of natural development and ecological protection. The results showed that： ① The carbon storage of Three-River-Source National Park showed a fluctuating characteristic of increase-decrease-increase-decrease from 1990 to 2020, the carbon storage was increased by 41.85×106 t overall, and the grassland took the largest contribution. ② The spatial distribution characteristics of carbon storage in Three-River-Source National Park had little change between 1990 to 2020, and the evolution of the spatial distribution was relatively stable. The contribution ratio of the Yangtze River source park, Lancang River source park, and Yellow River source park was 7∶1∶2, which was roughly equivalent to the park area. ③ The major driving factors of the spatial-temporal variation of carbon storage in Three-River-Source National Park from 1990 to 2020 were： FVC, soil type, and annual precipitation. The interactive detection of each driving factor showed dual-factor enhancement and nonlinear enhancement. ④ The carbon storage of Three-River-Source National Park was predicted to decrease by 4.87% and 3.98% from 2020 to 2030 under the scenarios of natural development and ecological protection, respectively, and the carbon storage reduction under the ecological protection scenario had a significant inhibitory effect. The findings can provide data support for national spatial planning of Three-River-Source National Park and the enhancement of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage.

Urban growth simulation guided by ecosystem service trade-offs in Wuhan metropolitan area: Methods and implications for spatial planning

The effective integration of ecosystem services (ESs) and urban growth simulation is crucial for spatial planning decisions that support sustainable and high-quality development. Interactions (i.e., trade-offs, synergies, and irrelevance) generally exist among ESs, however, few studies have been done on the methodology for simulating urban growth that optimizes the synergistic effect of ESs. In this study, the Wuhan metropolitan area was taken as the research area. Four key ESs in 2000, 2010, and 2020: water yield (WY), carbon storage (CS), habitat quality (HQ), and soil retention (SR) were evaluated by using the InVEST model. Then the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) method was applied to optimally allocate ESs trade-offs and identify ecological priority protection areas (EPPAs). Finally, the PLUS model was used to simulate urban growth scenarios under different levels of ESs protection constraints and propose spatial planning strategies. The results revealed the following. (1) From 2000 to 2020, the three ESs (i.e., WY, CS, and HQ) exhibited the spatial distribution pattern with high in the east and low in the west, and higher in the woodland than in built-up areas, except SR, which remained at a weak level throughout the region. (2) During the 20 years, SR and the other three ESs, HQ and CS showed a synergistic relationship; WY exhibited a very weak trade-off with HQ; and WY and CS changed from a very weak trade-off to a weak synergy. (3) Seven ecosystem service patterns (ESPs) were generated, and ESP 5 was compared as the ideal option. The weights of SR, WY, CS, and HQ in this pattern were 0.063, 0.187, 0.313, and 0.437, respectively. (4) By 2030, the built-up areas will exhibit edge expansion and interconnection development trends, with the high-constraint ecological protection scenario as the most compact mode, and the spatial structure of “two districts, one axis, four cities as one” is consistent with the development tendency. Our findings can help to enrich the method of urban growth management oriented by ecological protection, and provide a scientific basis for ecological environment restoration and land use spatial planning practices.

Impact of Land Use/Cover Change on Soil Erosion and Future Simulations in Hainan Island, China

Soil erosion (SE) is a critical threat to the sustainable development of ecosystem stability, agricultural productivity, and human society in the context of global environmental and climate change. Particularly in tropical island regions, due to the expansion of human activities and land use/cover changes (LUCCs), the risk of SE has been exacerbated. Combining the RUSLE with machine learning methods, SE spatial patterns, their driving forces and the mechanisms of how LUCCs affect SE, were illustrated. Additionally, the potential impacts of future LUCCs on SE were simulated by using the PLUS model. The main results are as follows: (1) Due to LUCCs, the average soil erosion modulus (SEM) decreased significantly from 108.09 t/(km2·a) in 2000 to 106.75 t/(km2·a) in 2020, a reduction of 1.34 t/(km2·a), mainly due to the transformation of cropland to forest and urban land. (2) The dominant factor affecting the spatial pattern of SE is the LS factor (with relative contributions of 43.9% and 45.17%), followed by land use/cover (LUC) (the relative contribution is 28.46% and 34.89%) in 2000 and 2020, respectively. (3) Three kinds of future scenarios simulation results indicate that the average SEM will decrease by 2.40 t/(km2·a) under the natural development scenario and by 1.86 t/(km2·a) under the ecological protection scenario by 2060. However, under the cropland protection scenario, there is a slight increase in SEM, with an increase of 0.08 t/(km2·a). Sloping cropland erosion control remains a primary issue for Hainan Island in the future.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Ecosystem Water Yield Services and Responses to Future Land Use Scenarios in Henan Province, China

Water yield (WY) service is the cornerstone of ecosystem functionality. Predicting and assessing the impact of land use/land cover (LULC) changes on WY is imperative for a nation’s food security, regional economic development, and ecological environmental protection. This study aimed to evaluate the water yield (WY) service in Henan Province, China, using high-resolution (30 m) remote sensing land use monitoring data from four study years: 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. It also utilized the PLUS model to predict the characteristics of LULC evolution and the future trends of WY service under four different development scenarios (for 2030 and 2050). The study’s results indicated the following: (1) From 1990 to 2020, the Henan Province’s WY first increased and then decreased, ranging from 398.56 × 108 m3 to 482.95 × 108 m3. The southern and southeastern parts of Henan Province were high-value WY areas, while most of its other regions were deemed low-value WY areas. (2) The different land use types were ranked in terms of their WY capacity, from strongest to weakest, as follows: unused land, cultivated land, grassland, construction land, woodland, and water. (3) The four abovementioned scenarios were ranked, from highest to lowest, based on the Henan’s total WY (in 2050) in each of them: high-quality development scenario (HDS), business-as-usual scenario (BAU), cultivated land protection scenario (CPS), and ecological protection scenario (ES). This study contributes to the advancement of ecosystem services research. Its results can provide scientific support for water resource management, sustainable regional development, and comprehensive land-use planning in Henan Province.

Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Carbon Stock Changes and Driving Mechanism in Xinjiang Region by Coupled PLUS-InVEST-Geodector Model

Based on the goal of "dual-carbon" strategy, it is important to explore the impacts of land use change on carbon stock and the drivers of spatial differentiation of carbon stock in Xinjiang. Here, we predicted the land use types in Xinjiang in 2035 under different scenarios and analyzed the impacts of land use on carbon stock, which is of great theoretical and practical importance for policy formulation, land use structure adjustment, and carbon neutrality target achievement in Xinjiang. The coupled PLUS-InVEST-Geodector model was used to explore the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon stock change under the scenarios of rapid development, natural change, arable land protection, and ecological protection in Xinjiang in 2035 and to quantitatively reveal the attribution of influences on the changes in carbon stock from the perspectives of land use change and the combination of nature-socioeconomic-accessibility. The results showed that： ① From 1990 to 2020, the area of arable land and construction land in Xinjiang increased, and in terms of the transfer direction, it was mainly shifted from unutilized land to grassland. ② On the time scale, the carbon stock in Xinjiang showed the fluctuation of "decrease-increase-decrease," with an overall increasing trend. The transfer of unutilized land to grassland was the main reason for the increase in carbon stock； on the spatial scale, the carbon stock in the Altai Mountains in the north, the Tianshan Mountains in the middle, and the Kunlun Mountains in the south was higher, whereas the carbon stock in the Tarim Basin and the Junggar Basin was lower. ③ In 2035, the carbon stock of the natural development and rapid development scenarios decreased by 27.24 Tg and 71.17 Tg compared with 2020, respectively, and the ecological protection and arable land protection scenarios increased by 492.55 Tg and 46.67 Tg. The ecological protection scenario could significantly increase the carbon stock of the Xinjiang Region compared with that in the other scenarios, and the distribution pattern of the carbon stock in the four scenarios was more or less the same as that in 2020. In addition to land transformation, soil erosion intensity was the main driver of spatial differentiation of carbon stocks in Xinjiang （q value of 0.3501）, followed by net primary productivity of vegetation. The results of multifactor interactions showed that the spatial differentiation of carbon stocks in Xinjiang was the result of the joint action of multiple factors. All the factors had a synergistic enhancement under the interactions. The interaction between soil erosion intensity and the net primary productivity of vegetation was the main driver of the spatial differentiation of carbon stocks in Xinjiang.

Quantitative prediction of water quality in Dongjiang Lake watershed based on LUCC

Land Use/ Cover Change (LUCC) plays a crucial role in influencing hydrological processes, nutrient cycling, and sediment transport in watersheds, ultimately impacting water quality on both spatial and temporal scales. Accurately predicting changes in watershed water quality is beneficial for the sustainable management of water resources. Current models often lack the ability to effectively predict water quality changes in a dynamic spatio-temporal context, particularly in complex watershed environments. The overall purpose of the study is to establish a comprehensive and dynamic modeling framework that links LUCC with water quality, allowing for accurate predictions of future water quality under varying land use scenarios. The model, which uses water quality as the dependent variable and LUCC as the independent variable, was developed to quantitatively predict changes in watershed water quality. To achieve this, annual multi-period remote sensing images from Landsat-5, Landsat-8 or Sentinel-2 satellites spanning from 1992 to 2022 were analyzed. Random Forest (achieving a Kappa coefficient of 0.9468) were employed to classify land use within the watershed. Based on classification results, a Cellular Automata-Markov chain model (CA-Markov) was constructed to simulate and predict the spatio-temporal patterns of land use, incorporating driving factors such as proximity to water systems, roads, elevation, and slope. Validation of the model using LUCC data from 2020 yielded a high prediction accuracy with a Kappa coefficient of 0.9505. The CA-Markov model was further utilized to project LUCC under three different scenarios—natural development, ecological protection, and arable land protection—between 2023 and 2033. Based on these projections, the coupled water quality and LUCC model was employed to predict water quality changes in the watershed over the same period. Key findings indicate that water quality is likely to improve under ecological protection scenario, while deterioration is expected under natural development scenario and cropland protection scenario due to urban expansion, agricultural practices, and water diversion for irrigation. This study provides a robust framework for watershed management, offering scientific guidance for source management and water purification efforts, thereby contributing significantly to the sustainable development of water resources.

Study on the characteristics and scenario simulation of land use change in the Chaohu Lake Basin, China

Effectively evaluating the historical and future land use/cover change (LUCC) is significant for effective land use planning and management, ecological conservation, and restoration. Taking the Chaohu Lake Basin (CLB) as the study area, GIS technology and geographic detector were used to quantitatively analyze the change characteristics and driving factors of LUCC under the three periods in 2000, 2010, and 2020 of the CLB. This study aimed to comprehend the alterations that have transpired over the last two decades. In addition, the PLUS model was utilized to forecast LUCC trends under three scenarios: natural development, urban development, and ecological protection by 2030 in the CLB. The results suggest a significant decrease of the cultivated land area, while a considerable increase for the construction land area from 2000 to 2020 in the CLB. The expansion of the construction land area was mainly driven by the conversion of cultivated land area. Additionally, the slope was identified as the primary factor influencing LUCC, with q-values of 0.275, 0.266, and 0.258 in 2000, 2010, and 2020, respectively. The interaction between slope and soil type, distance to the trunk road and the secondary trunk road, and GDP was strong. The explanatory capacity of socioeconomic factors demonstrated a steady increase. The simulation results indicate that a decrease in cultivated land area and an increase in construction land area still occurred by 2030 in the CLB, particularly in the urban development scenario. Nonetheless, a notable deceleration of change was appeared in the ecological protection scenario. The alterations in forest and grassland areas were not significant. However, the water bodies area continued to enlarge, although the expansion was not substantial. The study results can provide policy references for the scientific management and long-term strategic planning of land resources in the CLB.

Patterns of change, driving forces and future simulation of LULC in the Fuxian Lake Basin based on the IM-RF-Markov-PLUS framework

Studying land use and land cover (LULC) patterns, identifying driving forces, and simulating future scenarios are vital for grasping the complex connection between human actions and the environment. This helps in shaping sustainable land management strategies and preparing for the impacts of climate change. However, there is a necessity for a comprehensive system modeling framework that can accurately capture spatial and temporal changes in LULC, analyze driving mechanisms, and provide an integrated analysis of future simulations. In this paper, a comprehensive IM-RF-Markov-PLUS analysis framework is developed, focusing on the Fuxian Lake Basin (FLB) as a study area. The study aims to achieve accurate prediction of LULC by combining the microscopic LULC change trend and the contribution of macroscopic driving forces. The results show that: (1) The IM-RF-Markov-PLUS framework can explore the change patterns and driving mechanisms of LULC in the FLB, and accurately predict the LULC in the FLB. Compared with the PLUS model, its accuracy is improved by 2 %. (2) IM analysis reveals that LULC transformation in the FLB is both general and specific. Although the area of grassland, buildings, roads and structures converted to desert and bare land is minimal, it shows relatively tendentious and specific change characteristics. (3) Different land types are significantly affected by driving factors, with the expansion of LULCs is constrained by major factors. The distance to the lake has the most significant impact on the distribution of garden land, while the primary road has the greatest impact on the distribution of forestland. (4) Under different scenarios, the spatial heterogeneity of LULC patterns is obvious. In 2035, under baseline and economic development scenarios, cultivated land will decrease, while other LULC types will increase. Under the cultivated land protection scenario, cultivated land is protected, with an increase of 5.85 %. Under the ecological protection scenario, there is an increase in ecological land. The largest increase is in forestland, which increases by a total of 3.46 %. The ecological protection scenario presents a viable approach for ensuring the sustainable development of the FLB. The results of this paper may serve as a reliable foundation for implementing LULC strategies in the FLB and offer guidance for crafting sustainable development regulations at the regional level.

Spatiotemporal characteristics and multi-scenario simulation of land use change and ecological security in the mountainous areas: Implications for supporting sustainable land management and ecological planning

The acceleration of global urbanization has intensified land use activities, which threaten the ecological environment and hinder the achievement of sustainable socioeconomic development goals. With the background of continuous land use expansion, the reasonable management of land use and ecological protection has increasingly become an important issue. This study constructs an ecological security (ES) index to evaluate the ES pattern, and employs the Future Land-Use Simulation (FLUS) model for multi-scenario simulation of land use patterns in mountainous areas. The results showed that from 2000 to 2020, cultivated land and grassland showed a sharp decrease, with areas of −128.64 and −228.18 km² respectively, while forest land, urban land, and other construction land increased, with areas of 116.12, 31.21, and 120.69 km² respectively. Over time, the mountainous areas mainly exhibited low and moderate ES patterns. Furthermore, for 2020–2030, under the natural development scenario, cultivated land, forest land, and grassland will show a decrease, while urban and other construction land will show a sharp increase. In contrast, under the ecological protection scenario, ecological land will show significant increase, and the patch expansion of urban construction land will be smaller. These results confirm the positive contribution of ES protection effects to improving the land use development, and support insightful guidance for formulating policies on ecological management in mountainous areas.

Multi-scenario prediction and attribution analysis of carbon storage of ecological system in the Huaihe River Basin, China.

Evaluating the impact of large-scale human activities on carbon storage through land use changes is of growing interest in terrestrial ecosystem assessments. The Huaihe River Basin, a vital Chinese grain production area, has undergone marked land use changes amid socio-economic acceleration. Evaluating the impacts of land use change on carbon storage and future carbon sequestration is imperative for regional ecosystem sustainability and Chinese food security, simultaneously, furnishing data support to regional land use planning and decision-making processes. Nonetheless, the mechanisms linking land use changes to carbon storage and the future carbon reservoir responses remain unclear. We utilized a multi-source dataset and representative scenarios, integrating PLUS, InVEST models, and Geodetector to assess land use change impacts on carbon storage in the Huaihe River Basin (2000-2030). The data indicates the following: (1) from 2000 to 2020, cultivated land decreased by 28,344.69 km2, construction land increased by 26,914.56 km2, and other land types changed little. (2) Land use change resulted a carbon loss of 1.17 × 108 t, primarily due to the expansion of construction land. (3) All four simulation scenarios exhibited diminished carbon storage relative to 2020, with the economic development scenario recording the lowest at 4.98 × 109 t and the ecological protection scenario the highest at 5.06 × 109 t. (4) Elevation predominantly drives carbon storage changes, with its interaction with NPP having the greatest impact. The factors synergistically enhance their explanatory power. The research provides a scientific basis for strategies aimed at augmenting regional carbon sequestration and refining low-carbon land management, safeguarding ecosystem stability.

Ecological Security Pattern Construction and Multi-Scenario Risk Early Warning (2020–2035) in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area, China

The effectiveness of ecological security patterns (ESPs) in maintaining regional ecological stability and promoting sustainable development is widely recognized. However, limited research has focused on the early warning of risks inherent in ESPs. In this study, the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GHKMGBA) is taken as the study area, and ecological security risk zones are delineated by combining the landscape ecological risk index and habitat quality, and a multi-level ESP is constructed based on the circuit theory. The PLUS model was employed to simulate future built-up land expansion under different scenarios, which were then extracted and overlaid with the multi-level ESP to enable the multi-scenario early warning of ESP risks. The results showed the following: The ESP in the central plains and coastal areas of the GHKMGBA exhibits a high level of ecological security risk, whereas the peripheral forested areas face less threat, which is crucial for regional ecological stability. The ESP, comprising ecological sources, corridors, and pinch points, is crucial for maintaining regional ecological flow stability, with tertiary corridors under significant stress and risk in all scenarios, requiring focused restoration and enhancement efforts. There are significant differences in risk early warning severity within the ESP across various development scenarios. Under the ecological protection scenario, the ESP will have the best early warning situation, effectively protecting ecological land and reducing ecological damage, providing a valuable reference for regional development policies. However, it must not overlook economic development and still needs to further seek a balance between economic growth and ecological protection.