Land Cover Simulation and Carbon Storage Assessment in Daqing City based on FLUS-InVEST Model

Land use change is one of the main factors driving changes in terrestrial carbon storage, which comprises the storage of vegetation carbon and soil carbon. Selecting the Chengdu–Chongqing urban agglomeration (CCUA) as the study area, land use and carbon storage from 2010 to 2030 were analyzed by combining the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. The main types of land use in CCUA are farmland and forest. The conversion of farmland to built-up land was the most important form of land use transfer between 2010 and 2020. Each type of land use shows the smallest change under the ecological protection scenario, and the degree of the comprehensive land use dynamic is only 0.19%. Under the natural development scenario, the areas of built-up land, wetland, and forest land will increase in 2030. Under the urban development scenario, the built-up land area will increase by 751.24 km2, an increase in more than 10.08%, but farmland, forest, and grassland will decrease. The spatial pattern of carbon storage is “high in the east and west, low in the middle”; farmland accounts for the largest proportion of carbon storage at over 60% of the total. Carbon storage decreased by 29.45 × 106 Mg from 2010 to 2020. Grassland showed the most significant decrease in carbon storage, with the proportion decreasing from 7.49% in 2010 to 6.09% in 2020. In 2030, the total carbon storage will reach 1844.68 × 106 Mg under the ecological protection scenario, slightly higher than that in 2020, while it will show a downward trend under the natural development and urban development scenarios.

The most extensive carbon reservoir system on Earth is found in the vegetation and soil in terrestrial ecosystems, which are essential to preserving the stability of ecosystems. Land use/cover change (LUCC) patterns in terrestrial ecosystems significantly impact carbon storage (CS). Therefore, it is imperative to investigate the relationship between LUCC and CS to coordinate regional ecological conservation and industrial development. In this study, the characteristics of spatial and temporal changes in land use and CS in the Yanqi Basin from 2000 to 2020 were revealed using the PLUS (patch-generating land use simulation) model and the CS module of the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) model. This study also predicted the spatial and temporal evolution of CS and the response mechanism of the Yanqi Basin from four scenarios—natural development scenario (NDS), ecological protection scenario (EPS), cropland protection scenario (CPS), and urban development scenario (UDS) for the years 2030, 2040, and 2050. This study shows the following: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, the Yanqi Basin witnessed an expansion in cropland and construction land, the order of the land use dynamic degree which is as follows: construction land > cropland > woodland > unused land > water > grassland. At the same time, the CS exhibited a trend of growth that was followed by a decline, a cumulative decrease of 3.61 Tg. (2) Between 2020 and 2050, woodland, grassland, and unused land decreased under the NDS and UDS. Meanwhile, grassland and woodland showed an expanding trend, and there was a decrease in cropland and construction land under the EPS; the CPS projected an increase in cropland to 3258.06 km2 by 2050. (3) CS under the UDS is always the lowest, and CS under the EPS is the highest; moreover, by 2050, CS under the EPS is projected to increase by 1.18 Tg compared with that under the UDS. The spatial distribution of CS shows a high value in the western part of the region and a low value in the eastern part of the region, which is more in line with the historical spatial distribution. (4) The development of land by human activities is one of the major factors leading to the change of CS. The direct cause of the decrease in CS is the transformation of large areas of cropland and woodland into construction land. Therefore, woodlands must be protected to improve CS and prevent ecological degradation. At the same time, future land use planning in the Yanqi Basin needs to limit the conversion rate of various types of land, control the construction land, optimize the urban pattern, improve the regional CS level, adhere to the concept of striving to achieve carbon neutrality, and realize the sustainable development of the region to provide scientific suggestions for carrying out macro-decision making regarding land use planning in arid areas.

In the pursuit of sustainable urban planning, integrating land use simulation with carbon storage assessment is crucial for achieving the “dual carbon” goals. This study focuses on the Fuzhou Metropolitan Area, utilizing land use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020. By establishing three future development scenarios—natural, urban, and dual-carbon target scenarios—based on the “Fuzhou Metropolitan Area Development Plan,” this research employ the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) models. The analysis reveals that from 2000 to 2020, the areas of cultivated land, forest land, grassland, and water bodies decreased, while construction land and bare land increased. Notably, the nighttime lighting factor significantly impacts land use changes, with elevation playing a crucial role in changes to water bodies and bare land. Under natural and urban development scenarios, carbon storage exhibits a downward trend, whereas the dual-carbon target scenario limits construction land expansion and reverses this trend, resulting in increased carbon storage. Based on these insights, this study proposes a three-stage urban planning strategy: strengthening carbon assessment in the early stages, fostering cross-departmental collaboration during implementation, and ensuring dynamic monitoring and adaptive adjustments in the later stages. This approach aims to harmonize urban development with ecological conservation, thereby maximizing economic and ecological benefits and supporting the achievement of the “dual carbon” policy goals.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1038/s41598-025-13961-w.

Liaoning Province, as an old industrial urban agglomeration since the founding of China, is an important link between the Bohai Economic Zone and the Northeast Economic Zone, and it has made great contributions to the economic development of China. The transformation of China’s economy and heavy industrial development have posed great challenges to the long-lasting growth of Liaoning Province. In this study, the driving force of land expansion was detected using the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model in Liaoning Province, and the land situation in 2030 was predicted under natural development, ecological protection, and economic development scenarios. We then further coupled the PLUS model with the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model to explore the spatial autocorrelation and synergistic relationship between carbon storage and habitat quality. The results indicated the following: (1) The total accuracy of the simulation in 2020 using the PLUS model reached 94.16%, and the Kappa coefficient reached 0.9089; therefore, the simulation result was highly reliable. (2) The overall spatial pattern of both carbon storage and habitat quality decreased from the northwest and southeast to the middle, and habitat quality had an impact on carbon storage to a certain extent, with a positive spatial correlation. (3) The ecological protection (EP) scenario was the only development prospect with increasing total carbon storage, which could increase carbon sequestration by approximately 7.83 × 106 Mg/C, and development prospects with optimal habitat quality. (4) Weak trade-off and weak synergy dominated in the 2030 natural development (ND) scenario; most regions showed weak synergy in the ecological protection scenario, spatial heterogeneity became more pronounced in the economic development (ED) scenario, and a strong trade-off and strong synergy emerged in individual regions. The results of the study have a positive feedback effect on establishing an ecological security barrier in Liaoning Province and furthering long-lasting low-carbon urban development.

Scenario simulation of land use change and carbon storage response in Henan Province, China: 1990–2050

Based on the background of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goal strategies, it is important to explore the impact of land use change on carbon storage and the drivers of spatial variation in carbon storage in the Northwest Arid Zone, which is vital to improve the carbon sink increment of the regional ecosystem and promote the regional carbon breakeven. The arid region of northwest China is an extremely fragile natural ecology, and with the rapid advancement of new urbanization, the rate of land use change has accelerated significantly, which has a certain impact on the carbon storage and fixation capacity of ecosystems. The PLUS-InVEST model was used to simulate the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of carbon storage under natural development, intensive development, water resource constraint, and ecological protection scenarios in Jiuquan City in 2035, and the parameter optimal geographic detector model was used to analyze the spatial divergence drivers of carbon storage. The results showed that:① the area of cultivated land, watershed, and construction land in Jiuquan City showed a significant increasing trend from 1990 to 2020, whereas the area of the remaining land use types showed a decreasing trend. ② The carbon storage in Jiuquan City increased from 7 722 808.1 t to 7 784 371 t from 1990 to 2020, and the conversion of grassland into unused land was the main cause of the loss of regional carbon storage, accounting for 85% of the total loss. ③ All four development scenarios in 2035 showed an increasing trend of carbon storage, among which the ecological protection scenario had the most significant increase, with an increment of 76 989.29 t. ④ The degree of land use, population density, GDP density, and NDVI were the main driving factors of the spatial variation in carbon storage in Jiuquan City, among which the degree of land use had the strongest explanatory power (q value of 0.849), and the interaction of natural and anthropogenic factors enhanced the explanatory power of each factor on the spatial variation in carbon storage. The results of the study can provide a scientific basis and decision basis for the integrated ecosystem management and territorial space optimization in Jiuquan City.

Land use and land cover (LULC) change is a pattern of alteration of the Earth’s land surface cover by human society and have a significant impact on the terrestrial carbon cycle. Optimizing the distribution of LULC is critical for the redistribution of land resources, the management of carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems, and global climate change. We integrated the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model to simulate and assess future LULC and ecosystem carbon storage in the Nanjing metropolitan circle in 2030 under four scenarios: natural development (ND), economic development (ED), ecological protection (EP), and collaborative development (CD). The results showed that (1) LULC and carbon storage distribution were spatially heterogenous in the Nanjing metropolitan circle for the different scenarios, with elevation, nighttime lights, and population being the main driving factors of LULC changes; (2) the Nanjing metropolitan circle will experience a carbon increase of 0.50 Tg by 2030 under the EP scenario and losses of 1.74, 3.56, and 0.48 Tg under the ND, ED, and CD scenarios, respectively; and (3) the CD scenario is the most suitable for the development of the Nanjing metropolitan circle because it balances ED and EP. Overall, this study reveals the effects of different development scenarios on LULC and ecosystem carbon storage, and can provide a reference for policymakers and stakeholders to determine the development patterns of metropolitan areas under a dual carbon target orientation.

The change of land use type seriously affects the spatial distribution pattern of regional carbon stocks. Exploring the land use status under future scenarios can provide an important reference for the spatial optimization of land use structure, carbon budget balance, and sustainable development in inland arid areas. Based on the land use types of the Haixi Prefecture in 2000, 2010, and 2020, the characteristics of land use change in the study area over 20 years were analyzed. The PLUS-InVEST model combined with 13 driving factors was used to simulate and predict the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of land use and carbon storage under natural development, ecological protection, and urban development scenarios in 2030. The results showed that： ① From 2000 to 2020, the main land types in the Haixi Prefecture were grassland and unused land； the area of grassland continued to decrease, mainly transferred to unused and construction land, whereas the area of other land types showed an increasing trend. ② Compared with that in 2020, under the natural development scenario in 2030, the area of forest land will decrease by 204.86 km2, indicating a decrease of 24.18%, and the area of grassland will decrease by 4 167.02 km2. Under the ecological protection scenario, the area of forest land and grassland will increase by 55.47 km2 and 929.41 km2, respectively. Under the urban development scenario, the construction land area will be 672.84 km2, indicating an increase of 17.34%. ③ From 2000 to 2020, the total carbon storage decreased by 162.04×106 t, showing a continuous downward trend. High carbon storage values were distributed in the eastern and southern parts of the study area, while low carbon storage values were mainly distributed in the Qaidam Basin and its periphery. ④ In 2030, carbon storage under the ecological protection scenario will increase by 84.78×106 t and 86.16×106 t compared with that under the natural and urban development scenarios, respectively, indicating that ecological protection can effectively increase carbon storage in the study area. These findings provide data support for rational land use planning and coordinated regional development in the Haixi Prefecture.

Land use change is an important factor affecting the carbon cycle and carbon reserves， and multiple scenario simulation of the impact of regional land use change on carbon reserves can provide decision support for formulating scientific land use policies. Taking the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone as an example， based on the evolution characteristics of land use from 1990 to 2020， the impact of land use change on carbon reserves during the 30 years was estimated using the InVEST model， and the coupling PLUS model was used to predict land use change and its impact on carbon reserves in 2030 under the natural development， urban development， and ecological protection scenarios. The study produced several interesting results： ① During 1990-2020， the land use structure in the research area was mainly cultivated land and forest land， which accounted for more than 86% of the area； cultivated land and grassland decreased； construction land， water area， forest land， and unused land increased； and land use transfer was mainly manifested in the mutual transformation between cultivated land and forest land and the transfer of cultivated land for construction land. ② From 1990 to 2020， the carbon reserves showed a distribution pattern of "middle low， surroundings high" and a change trend of "decrease-increase-decrease." The total accumulation decreased by 9.29×106 t， which was mainly attributable to the transfer of forest land to other land. The carbon reserves of cultivated land and forest land， which are the main sources of carbon reserves in the research area， accounted for about 90% of the total. ③ From 2020 to 2030， the areas of cultivated land， water area， and unused land all declined， the area of grassland increased， forest land increased under only the ecological protection scenario， and construction land expanded significantly under the urban development scenario. ④ Under the scenarios of natural development and urban development， carbon reserves decreased significantly， while under the scenario of ecological protection， carbon reserves increased significantly due to lower transfer probability of cultivated land， grassland， and forest land to construction land.

The increase in atmospheric CO2 caused by land use and land cover change (LUCC) is one of the drivers of the global climate. As one of the most typical high-urbanization areas, the ecological conflicts occurring in Guangdong Province warrant urgent attention. A growing body of evidence suggests LUCC could guide the future ecosystem carbon storage, but most LUCC simulations are simply based on model results without full consistency with the actual situation. Fully combined with the territorial spatial planning project and based on the land use pattern in 2010 and 2020, we have used the Markov and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to simulate the future four land use scenarios: the Business as Usual (BU), Ecological Protection (EP), Farmland Protection (FP), and Economic Development (ED) scenario, and the ecosystem carbon storage was assessed by the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. The results show that the built-up area experience further expansion in all scenarios, the largest scale happened in ED and the smallest in FP. Besides, the forest area in the EP scenario is the largest, while the land use pattern developed based on the previous circumstances in the BU scenario. Furthermore, the carbon storage plunged from 1619.21 Tg C in 2010 to 1606.60 Tg C in 2020, with a total decrease of 12.61 Tg C. Urban expansion caused 79.83% of total carbon losses, of which 31.56% came from farmland. In 2030, the carbon storage dropped in all scenarios, and their storage amount has a relationship of FP > BU > EP > ED. To better resolve the ecological problems and conserve ecosystem carbon storage, not only ecological protection but also the protection of the land near the city such as farmland protection strategies must be considered.

To optimize land use and achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets, in this study, we investigated the spatial and temporal patterns of land use and land cover change (LUCC) and carbon storage (CS) in the Jinan Metropolitan Area from 2010 to 2030. Using land use data from 2010 to 2020, the PLUS model was employed to simulate land use patterns for 2030 under four development scenarios: Natural Development Scenario (NDS), Ecological Protection Scenario (EPS), Cropland Protection Scenario (CPS) and Urban Development Scenario (UDS). The InVEST model was then used to calculate CS under these scenarios. Between 2010 and 2020, the most significant reduction was in cropland, with a decrease of 3.34 %, while the most significant increase was in construction land, with an increase of 3.13 %. Total CS showed a decreasing trend. By 2030, CS is projected to increase exclusively under the EPS, with an increase of 873015.30 Mg, while other scenarios demonstrate varying degrees of decrease. Crucially, the expansion of construction land is identified as the dominant factor driving CS depletion in the Jinan Metropolitan Area. Mount Tai and the Yimeng Mountains are significant carbon sinks in this region. In contrast, the urban area of Jinan, as well as the Zhangqiu district and Zichuan district of Zibo, are the primary areas of CS loss. Strengthening the protection of ecological land in the Jinan Metropolitan Area, along with implementing carbon reduction and sequestration measures in construction land and cropland is crucial for enhancing regional CS capacity, optimizing future land management decisions, and ultimately achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets.

Simulation of changes in ecosystem service value (ESV) caused by land use change in Wuhan under multiple scenarios is of great significance for ensuring urban ecological security and enhancing regional ecosystem service values. The city of Wuhan was selected as the study area, and the changes in land use and ESV in Wuhan over the past 31 years were analyzed and calculated based on five-phase remote sensing images and statistical yearbooks for 1990, 1998, 2006, 2014 and 2021. On this basis, the CA-Markov model and the multi objective planning (MOP) model were used to simulate the land use change in the study area in 2040 under four scenarios (natural development scenario, cultivated land protection scenario, ecological protection scenario and urban development scenario), and the total ESV was estimated under each scenario. The total value of ecosystem services was estimated under each scenario, and grid tools were applied to visualize the spatial distribution and degree of aggregation of ecosystem services. The results show that: (1) The most obvious feature of land use change in Wuhan from 1990 to 2021 is the sharp reduction in arable land area and the rapid expansion of build-up land area. Over the past 31 years, the arable land area decreased by 78322.4 hm2, and the build-up land area increased by 52559.28 hm2. (2) From 1990 to 2021, Wuhan’s total ESV at the five timepoints (1990, 1998, 2006, 2014, 2021) was 74.554 billion yuan, 71.512 billion yuan, 69.632 billion yuan, 73.433 billion yuan and 68.548 billion yuan, respectively. Overall, there has been a downward trend in volatility. (3) Under the four scenarios, the ESV in 2040 is projected to be 72.777 billion yuan, 70.969 billion yuan, 74.097 billion yuan or 70.620 billion yuan, respectively. Among them, the ecological protection scenario is the optimal simulation choice. (4) The cold and hot spots of ESV show an aggregated distribution over a large area, with the hot spots mainly concentrated in the central and southeastern parts of Wuhan and the cold spots mainly located in the northeastern and northwestern portions of Wuhan. Simulating the future land use change trends in Wuhan and exploring the responses of ecosystem service values under various scenarios are conducive to the construction of a new pattern of urban land space development and protection and can provide a scientific basis and a reference for decision-making for comprehensively promoting the sustainable development of Wuhan and other metropolitan areas in China in the future.

Land use pattern is a dominant factor causing carbon storage changes in terrestrial ecosystems and is crucial for maintaining the stability of carbon storage. Understanding the impact of land use on carbon storage variations in drylands is of great significance for local ecological protection and the sustainable management of land resources. Based on the land use data of the Gonghe Basin from 1990 to 2020, the InVEST model was applied to analyze the spatiotemporal changes in carbon storage, and the PLUS model was used to predict the changes in carbon storage under three different development scenarios in 2030. The results are as follows: (1) From 1990 to 2020, the main land use types in the Gonghe Basin were grassland and unused land, with an overall increase in grassland and a marked decrease in unused land. (2) The spatial distribution of carbon storage was generally characterized by being low in the center and high at the edge, and grassland was the most important land use type with the highest carbon storage. Over the past 30 years, it has shown an increase followed by a decline, with an overall increase of 1.84%. (3) The carbon storage under the natural trend, urban development, and ecological protection scenarios will be 158.80 × 106 Mg, 158.66 × 106 Mg, and 159.83 × 106 Mg in 2030, respectively. The grassland and cropland areas were larger under the ecological protection scenario, which was more conducive to improving the carbon storage in this region. This study provides an effective reference for optimizing land use and achieving carbon neutrality (“dual carbon” goals) in drylands.

Projecting the response of ecological risk to land use/land cover change in ecologically fragile regions

Land use change drives carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding the spatio-temporal varia-tion of land use and carbon storage is important for improving carbon sink capacity and achieving the carbon neutrality goal. With InVEST-PLUS model, we evaluated spatio-temporal variation of land use change and ecosystem carbon storage in Hebei Province, explored their variations from 2000 to 2020, and predicted land use changes and carbon storage in 2040. The results showed that cultivated land, forest, and grassland were dominant vegetation types from 2000 to 2020. The area of cultivated land decreased by 7011.1 km2, and the construction land increased by 7479.6 km2. The conversion of cultivated land to construction land was the predominant form of land transfer. Carbon storage in Hebei decreased by 3.6×107 t from 2000 to 2020, with the conversion of cultivated land and grassland to construction land being the main reason for such rapid decline of carbon storage. Carbon storage was higher in the northwest and lower in the southeast. From 2020 to 2040, under natural development scenario, ecological protection scenario, and economic development scenario, the carbon storage of Hebei Province would increase by 4.0×107, 5.1×107, and 5.9×107 t, respectively. The main carbon pools will still be cultivated land, forest, and grassland. In the future, it would be necessary to protect carbon sequestration resources such as forest and grassland, optimize land use pattern with the goal of reducing carbon emissions, and protect areas with high carbon density to further enhance their carbon sequestration capacity.