Dynamic Input-output Model Research Articles

A Dynamic Input-Output Model for Small Regions

This paper develops a conceptual foundation for temporal input-output, reviews the experiences in the area and looks at its potential, particularly for small region modeling. Finally, a particular dynamic input-output model is described and examined in light of this conceptual foundation.

Saaty's consistency analysis: An application to problems in static and dynamic input-output models

Saaty's priority analysis has given us a set of rules to assign weights (priorities) to a multiple of objects in a consistent way. The method has been shown to have great potential for economic application, especially in applied input-output work. In this paper we show that much stronger links exist between priority theory and input-output analysis than observed in the literature thus far. As we shall show, application of Saaty's instrumentarium to the Leontief framework opens the way for a new type of consistency analysis. In static models the dual output and price systems are shown to be consistent, in the sense that both can be described in terms of the same pairwise comparison matrix. In dynamic analysis, these dual systems are shown to be generally inconsistent, the only exception being the case of von Neumann growth.

Environmental-economic models for total emission control of regional environmental pollution — input-output approach

This paper deals with a Leontief-type dynamic input-output analysis for total emission control of pollution. A dynamic input-output model can be described as a linear programming problem. In this paper an objective function to be minimized is chosen as the sum of pollutants emitted in a regional area throughout the planning period. It is assumed that consumption grows with a constant growth rate throughout the planning period. With this model, we can tell how to assign the elimination rate of pollutants to each production sector, under the constraint that the total emission standard is satisfied in each term of the planning period.

A continuous Leontief dynamic input-output model

This paper extends the Leontief dynamic input-output model by incorporating continuous lags, capacity constraints, excess capacity and limits on disinvestment in each sector. These extensions result in “phase changes”, where sectors discretely change from one set of conditions to another. The resulting system of equations is “solved” by numerical methods and applied to the U.S. economy. Projections for the 1952 to 1962 period are compared with actual levels.

Analysis of Multivariable Dynamic Economic Control Systems

A linear multi-input and multi-output economic control system is introduced based on the dynamic input-output model with multiple year lags. Using the phase variable canonical forms suggested by R.Yokoyama (1973) the dynamic economic input-output discrete transfer function is represented. It is shown that the compact structure of this form is used conveniently to calculate the time sequential values of a multivariable dynamic economic system using the backward recursive method. Some numerical examples are given

Conditioning the ecosystem

A dynamic input-output model of the ecosystem is shown to have stable responses to changes in the net inputs or outputs if a set of preparatory or conditioning flows changes are carried out. These flows are a function of the structure of the ecosystem, the nature of the desired net input or output changes, and the length of the conditioning period. If the structure is assumed constant and if a behavioral system goal can be consistently posed, the optimal conditioning period can be determined. This period length is also a function of the cost placed on waiting by components of the ecosystem. An experiment is proposed to reveal the waiting cost or time value in ecosystems.

Application of Hierarchical Optimal Control Method to Dynamical Input-Output Analysis

A quantitative framework to the problem of regional economic planning is developed using a dynamical input-output model with multiple-year time-delays. The decomposition and coordination Clethod in control theory is used to find the optimal solution. A numerical example is given.

Dynamic Input–Output Model With Variable (Klem)Technical Coefficients

We consider the problem of coupling a dynamic input–output model with a set of econometrically estimated demand models. Input–output models with fixed technical coefficients have been criticized fo...

The use of simulation techniques in dynamic input-output modeling

This paper describes a combined continuous-discrete simula tion model of an economy. The simulation model "solves" a dynamic input-output model (a system of differential equations) by numerically tracing the level of state variables through time. An analytic solution to this system, while possible, is imprac tical because of discontinuities in the state equations due to in dustry capacity constraints and irreversibilities in investment levels. The model is fitted with data for the Grant County Oregon economy and used to measure the dynamic impacts of an in crease in allowable timber harvest in the county. This study dem onstrates the advantages of the dynamic model over its static counterpart and explores its potential application to various economic impact problems.

Industry analysis and investment decision‐making under conditions of uncertainty

AbstractEvaluating risk is a key element in successful investment decision‐making. A major risk in forecasting company performance is associated with projecting its cash flow streams by product‐line which in turn is strongly related to the expected industry outlook and likely variability about this outlook. This paper sets out a methodology for evaluating this aspect of the investment decision by developing measures of expected real cash flow growth (reward) and expected annual variability of this growth (risk). These measures are constructed for 77 industry classifications at the two and three digit SIC (Standard Industrial Classification) level of detail by solving a dynamic input–output model under various economic secenarios. Aside from producing results which are relevant for producing company valuation bands, the analysis strongly suggests that perceptions of which industries are ‘winners’ and which are ‘losers’ are significantly altered when both ‘reward’ and ‘risk’ are used as criteria as opposed to either one alone. Finally, the methodology also produces results which measures the sources of cash flow growth in terms of relative price performance, productivity, and demand for output. Since there measures can be used as indicators of the quality of industry real cash flow growth, industry performance can be further arrayed within the broad categories of winning and losing industries. Several examples of how this is done are offered.

Outline of an econometric model for Chinese economic planning

This paper outlines an econometric model for Chinese economic planning, consisting of four parts: (1) a dynamic input-output model, (2) final demand for products, (3) equations determining income and prices; and (4) government revenues and expenditures. It points out how optimal control techniques can be applied to economic planning using this model, in particular, to address the basic problems facing the PRC planners as cited in the introduction.

Issues in The Identification of Models of Human Behavior

The distinction between human performance and human behavior is considered and modeling approaches suitable for describing both performance and behavior discussed. Static and dynamic input-output models and rule-based models are contrasted. Issues considered include the models' relative abilities to describe time-varying behavior, possible levels of description, uses of contextual cues, and identifiability.

Applications of a dynamic multiregional input-output model of the Swedish economy

Applications of a dynamic multiregional input-output model of the Swedish economy

Basic linear systems and their categorical realization theory

In this paper the following problem is considered: Given an unstructured dynamical input-output model, i.e., a time system. If the systems properties like causality, stationarity, linearity, and the finiteness condition are imposed on the system, what will its resulting characteristics? This problem is investigated in order to define a meaningful subclass of time systems and to check whether or not the set of systems properties available from the present systems theory is complete enough to describe systems behavior fruitfully. The class of basic linear systems is introduced as the meaningful subclass of time systems, and their properties and representation theory are discussed in terms of category theory. This research implies that affirmative answers can be obtained for the completeness question.

A note on a closed input-output model with finite life-times and gestation lags

The presentation of the dynamic linear input-output model by Lange [4] in 1957 has recently been followed by some studies investigating the properties of such models. See, e.g., Brady [ 1) and Johansen [2]. In Lange’s model production requirements stem from current use of commodities as well as from growth of stocks. Brady [ 1 ] in his closed input-output model used disaggregated capital-output coefficients (as did Lange); mathematically, the model is posed as an eigenequation. Recently Johansen [3] has generalized Brady’s model by assuming gestation lags and finite life-time of capital equipment. (The concept of gestation lags in an input-output framework may also be found in an article by Lange [S] written in 1959.) The purpose of this note is to present an alternative proof and a solution algorithm in a slightly generalized Johansen model. In our model the productive capacity of investment changes by age, but in both models investment may require more than one time period for its construction, and capital goods have different finite life-times. By a mathematically appropriate formulation of the model, the existence of a unique solution, characterized by balanced growth and full capacity utilization, is easily proved. Furthermore, the mathematical formulation of the non-linear system of equations suggests a simple solution algorithm.

The verification of efficient growth: An approach via stojanović's matrix of growth

It is well known that empirically implemented, full capacity, dynamic input-output models may indicate that economies are both highly efficient and causally indeterminate. If such is the case, only extrapolations of observed efficient cases can be interpreted economically in projective studies. We point out that multisector' modelling based on Stojanovic's matrix of growth poses similar problems. In fact, only matrices for observed efficient growth cases are consistent with fixed-coefficient projection models. Because of the flexibility of the approach, however, consequences for applied work seem less serious than in the input-output cases.

Policy evaluation in the dynamic input-output model

Abstract The problem of policy evaluation in the dynamic Leontief input-output model is considered. Tax multiplier matrices aro presented that allow a comparative analysis of changes in production levels duo to a tax policy.

A dynamic input-output model for investigating alternative futures: Applications to the South African economy

In this article the structure of a dynamic input-output model is developed. Using available time-series data for the South African economy, the model is adapted to describe trends and structural changes that have occured over the past few decades. The model is used to describe the economic consequences of continuing existing trends as well as of possible changes in trends. Conditions for increasing or decreasing economic growth and the supply of consumer goods are investigated. The effects of changing technology as reflected by changing capital/output ratios and input-output coefficients are explored. Model simulation runs indicate that under certain conditions it may be possible to decrease overall economic growth and reduce consumption of resources by considerable margins without reducing the supply of consumer goods.

Regionalizing national projections with a multiregional input-output model linked to a demographic model.

Multiregional input-output has long been recognized as a tool that provides an appropriate framework for considering regional growth and development questions, but implementation problems have impeded utilization of this methodology. This paper discusses how several of these problems have been partially overcome with a multiregional economic-demographic model of the Southwest. The model is used to regionalize projections from a national dynamic input-output model.

The Principle of a Guaranteed Result in Problems of Economic Control

The paper is concerned with applying the principle of the best guaranteed result to control with uncertainties. In these problems, the disturbances affect the set of feasible controls, which is characteristic of economic problems, as well as the performance criterion. The effectiveness of three control techniques is compared: (i) programmed control, (ii) programmed control with additional information, (iii) control with complete information. The comparison is made in terms of a maximal guaranteed estimate of the performance criterion, of actual values of the criterion for all possible disturbances, and of the possibility of satisfying conditions of control feasibility. An antagonistic generalized game is formulated which is related to the control problem; a saddle point is defined. It is found that a saddle point exists in dynamic input-output models with independent disturbances.