Ice Duration Research Articles

Warming winters in lakes: Later ice onset promotes consumer overwintering and shapes springtime planktonic food webs

Global climate warming is causing the loss of freshwater ice around the Northern Hemisphere. Although the timing and duration of ice covers are known to regulate ecological processes in seasonally ice-covered ecosystems, the consequences of shortening winters for freshwater biota are poorly understood owing to the scarcity of under-ice research. Here, we present one of the first in-lake experiments to postpone ice-cover onset (by ≤21 d), thereby extending light availability (by ≤40 d) in early winter, and explicitly demonstrate cascading effects on pelagic food web processes and phenologies. Delaying ice-on elicited a sequence of events from winter to spring: 1) relatively greater densities of algal resources and primary consumers in early winter; 2) an enhanced prevalence of winter-active (overwintering) consumers throughout the ice-covered period, associated with augmented storage of high-quality fats likely due to a longer access to algal resources in early winter; and 3) an altered trophic structure after ice-off, with greater initial springtime densities of overwintering consumers driving stronger, earlier top-down regulation, effectively reducing the spring algal bloom. Increasingly later ice onset may thus promote consumer overwintering, which can confer a competitive advantage on taxa capable of surviving winters upon ice-off; a process that may diminish spring food availability for other consumers, potentially disrupting trophic linkages and energy flow pathways over the subsequent open-water season. In considering a future with warmer winters, these results provide empirical evidence that may help anticipate phenological responses to freshwater ice loss and, more broadly, constitute a case of climate-induced cross-seasonal cascade on realized food web processes.

Deep convolutional neural network with random field model for lake ice mapping from Sentinel-1 imagery

ABSTRACT Timely information on lake ice cover conditions is critical in support of commercial shipping, winter-road transportation, and winter leisure activities such as snowmobiling and ice fishing. Monitoring of lake ice extent and ice phenology (i.e. dates associated with freeze-up/break-up and ice duration) is also valuable for improving numerical weather prediction (NWP) and for climate monitoring. The availability of free synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-1 A/B constellation provides an unprecedented opportunity to develop operational algorithms for lake ice cover mapping at a temporal frequency not available until now from SAR missions (ca. every 1–5 days depending on latitude). For NWP, rapid and accurate mapping of ice cover and open water areas in lake-rich regions is required. However, the classification of SAR imagery using traditional machine learning (ML) approaches is challenging due to the large data volume generated by imaging systems such as Sentinel-1 SAR as well as the complexity of radar signatures as a function of sensor and target characteristics. For lakes specifically, radar backscatter can vary greatly with incidence angle, polarization and surface properties (e.g. calm and wind-roughed open water, new thin ice, surface roughness due to the presence of pressure ridges, ice type, melting of ice and on-ice snow). To address the challenge of large-scale lake ice mapping, we investigate the GPU-boosted deep neural network approach that is efficient at handling big complex data. In this paper, we design a novel maximum a posterior (MAP) approach combining a convolutional neural network (CNN) and conditional random field (CRF) for better addressing the challenges of operational lake ice mapping. The proposed approach is tested on 17 Sentinel-1 dual-polarization (VV and VH) SAR images, where eight are used for training and validation and nine used for out-of-sample testing. To identify the optimal network architecture, an independent validation set is used to evaluate the performance of a series of six CNNs with increasing model complexity. The best model overcomes the noise effect in Sentinel-1 SAR imagery and the lake ice signature ambiguity issue; it achieves average classification accuracies of 97.10% and 97.14% for open water and ice, respectively, on the validation set. Moreover, the best model outperforms the last-ranked model by about 2% in terms of mean overall accuracy (OA), demonstrating the improvement and importance of model selection. The use of CRF can consistently improve the CNN by reducing the artefacts and noise effect in ice maps, outperforming the CNN model when used alone by about 3% in terms of mean OA on the validation set. The proposed CNN-CRF approach also achieves high accuracy on the nine test scenes, achieving a mean OA of 93.10%, demonstrating strong generalization capability that is important for SAR lake ice mapping.

Loss of Ice Cover, Shifting Phenology, and More Extreme Events in Northern Hemisphere Lakes

AbstractLong‐term lake ice phenological records from around the Northern Hemisphere provide unique sensitive indicators of climatic variations, even prior to the existence of physical meteorological measurement stations. Here, we updated ice phenology records for 60 lakes with time‐series ranging from 107–204 years to provide the first re‐assessment of Northern Hemispheric ice trends since 2004 by adding 15 additional years of ice phenology records and 40 lakes to our study. We found that, on average, ice‐on was 11.0 days later, ice‐off was 6.8 days earlier, and ice duration was 17.0 days shorter per century over the entire record for each lake. Trends in ice‐on and ice duration were six times faster in the last 25‐year period (1992–2016) than previous quarter centuries. More extreme events in recent decades, including late ice‐on, early ice‐off, shorter periods of ice cover, or no ice cover at all, contribute to the increasing rate of lake ice loss. Reductions in greenhouse gas emissions could limit increases in air temperature and abate losses in lake ice cover that would subsequently limit ecological, cultural, and socioeconomic consequences, such as increased evaporation rates, warmer water temperatures, degraded water quality, and the formation of toxic algal blooms.

Sea ice phenology in the Caspian Sea

To understand the spatial and temporal variations in the extent and timing of sea ice in the Caspian Sea (CS), 15 years of sea ice presence and its phenology (freeze-up, break-up, and duration) were studied in the Northern CS (NCS) for a period from 2004 to 2018. This study indicated that the percentage of sea ice covered area in the CS showed fluctuations ranging from 54.2% in 2004 to more than 89% in 2006 and 2008. This study, furthermore, found regional differences within the NCS in sea ice phonological features during 2004 to 2018. Specifically, earlier sea ice formation, later ice melt, and longer ice periods were observed in the eastern than the western NCS. Noticeable interannual changes were also observed in the timing and duration of the NCS ice (2004-2018). However, most parts of the NCS did not show significant trends (P>0.05) in the formation, decay, and duration of sea ice and their interannual variability. The observed spatial and temporal patterns in the CS ice can have implications for phytoplankton blooms and higher trophic levels, such as fish and endangered Caspian seal populations and merits further investigation.

A day in the life of winter plankton: under-ice community dynamics during 24 h in a eutrophic lake

Abstract Although diel vertical migration (DVM) in aquatic systems may account for the largest daily migration of biomass globally, our understanding of this process under ice cover is limited, particularly in fresh water. The date of lake ice onset and duration of ice cover is declining globally, therefore determining the extent of plankton migrations under ice is imperative to inform our baseline understanding of seasonal differences in community structure and function, and how conditions may change over time. We investigated whether plankton exhibit DVM under ice and explored interactions between phytoplankton and zooplankton at highly resolved space–time scales across 24 h in a eutrophic system. Despite the dominance of motile taxa, phytoplankton remained vertically segregated based on morpho-functional groups throughout the sampling period. Daphnia mendotae exhibited size-structured DVM with an upward migration at sunset and sunrise, and midnight sinking, presumably to avoid the rise of predatory Chaoborus. We hypothesize that because overwintering daphnids require rich lipid stores, D. mendotae migrated to access small, lipid-rich phytoplankton that were limited to surface waters. Given our study took place during an unusually warm winter in a eutrophic system, our results may represent future under-ice dynamics under increasing eutrophication pressure and climate warming in shallow lakes.

Hidden Stores of Organic Matter in Northern Lake Ice: Selective Retention of Terrestrial Particles, Phytoplankton and Labile Carbon

AbstractAround 50% of the world's lakes freeze seasonally, but the duration of ice‐cover is shortening each year and this is likely to have broad limnological consequences. We sampled freshwater ice and the underlying water in 19 boreal and polar lakes to evaluate whether lake ice contains an inoculum of algae, nutrients, and carbon that may contribute to lake ecosystem productivity. Boreal and Arctic lakes differed in ice duration (6 vs. >10 months), thickness (70 vs. 190 cm), and quality (predominantly snow ice vs. black ice), but in all lakes, there were consistent differences in biological and biogeochemical composition between ice and water. Particulate fractions were often more retained while most dissolved compounds were excluded from the ice; for example, the ice had more terrestrial particulate carbon, measured as fatty acid biomarkers (averages of 1.1 vs. 0.3 µg L−1) but lower dissolved organic carbon (2.2 vs. 5.7 mg C L−1) and inorganic phosphorus concentrations (4.0 vs. 7.5 µg C L−1) than the underlying water. The boreal ice further had three times higher chlorophyll‐a, than the water (0.9 vs. 0.3 µg L−1). Of the dissolved fractions, the contribution of protein‐like compounds was higher in the ice, and this in all lakes. These labile compounds would become available to planktonic microbes when the ice melts. Our results show that freshwater ice has an underestimated role in storage and transformation in the biogeochemical carbon cycle of ice‐covered lake ecosystems.

Effect of cable surface geometry and ice accretion shapes on the aerodynamic behaviour of inclined stay cables

A wind-tunnel study has been conducted to evaluate changes in the aerodynamic behaviour of stay cables of a bridge due to ice accretion from freezing rain and, due to different cable surface geometries. Numerical simulations were performed to predict the three-dimensional ice shapes resulting from freezing rain for a variation of environmental conditions: wind speed, wind direction, air temperature, velocity of precipitation and duration of precipitation. Stay-cable models were fabricated using laser selective sintering for three different surface geometries (double helical fillet, concentric rings, and double helical strakes) with ice formed under the same environmental conditions. Additional models with the helical fillet geometry were fabricated to evaluate the effect of the air temperature at which ice was formed, the effect of wind direction during the precipitation event and the effect of the duration of the precipitation. The aerodynamic drag and lift forces acting on the models were measured for different wind speeds and cable-wind angles. The overall study evaluated the mean aerodynamic force coefficients of ten models in smooth flow, and two of the models were also tested in turbulent flow. The critical Reynolds number regime for the models of stay cable with ice accretion shapes occurred at a lower Reynolds number (below 100,000) than for the un-iced cables and the drag coefficient was less sensitive to increases in Reynolds numbers than the equivalent un-iced cables. These effects were attributed to the combined role of the ice-shape in determining the separation point combined with the higher surface roughness of the ice. An important observation was that for the three surface geometries and the range of test conditions that were considered, the maximum drag coefficients for ice-accreted models ranged from approximately 1.1 to 1.3, and were up to 50% greater than those observed without ice. The model with helical strakes and ice accretion exhibited the highest drag coefficient and exhibited more variation in lift coefficient with changes in Reynolds number than the other two cable surface geometries. The aerodynamic forces of an ice-accreted model followed similar trends in smooth and turbulent flow, but the drag coefficients were greater in turbulent flow. The presence and shape of the ice appeared to have a more dominant effect on the separation behaviour of the models than the presence of turbulence (for an ice-accreted model). The aerodynamic coefficients did not change greatly between the cases where ice was accreted at −0.5°C and −1.5°C due to the similar ice shape and thickness near the separation locations. The ice shape formed at −5°C was thicker but more localized and resulted in drag and lift coefficients that had greater variation with changes in the cable-wind plane. The effect of ice duration from 10 h to 20 h resulted in a increased variation in mean lift coefficient behaviour due to the asymmetric shape that resulted from the ice accretion parameters.

A Comparison of Ecological Memory of Lake Ice‐Off in Eight North‐Temperate Lakes

AbstractIce‐off dates on lakes are some of the longest phenological records in the field of ecology, and some of the best evidence of long‐term climatic change. However, there has been little investigation as to whether the date of ice‐off on a lake impacts spring and summer ecosystem dynamics. Here, I analyzed 274 years of long‐term data from eight north temperate lakes in two climate zones to address whether lakes have ecological memory of ice‐off in the subsequent summer. Five metrics were investigated: epilimnion temperatures, hypolimnion temperatures, hypolimnetic oxygen drawdown, water clarity, and spring primary productivity. The response of the metrics to ice‐off date were variable across latitude and lake type. The northern set of lakes stratified quickly following ice‐off, and early ice‐off years resulted in significantly warmer hypolimnetic temperatures. Oxygen depletion in the hypolimnion was not impacted by ice‐off date, likely because in late ice‐off years the lakes did not fully mix. In the southern lakes, ice‐off date was not correlated to the onset of stratification, with the latter being a more dominant control on hypolimnetic temperature and oxygen. The implications of these findings is that as ice‐off date trends earlier in many parts of the world, the lakes that will likely experience the largest changes in spring and summer ecosystem properties are the lakes that currently have the longest duration of lake ice. In considering a future with warmer winters, these results provide a starting point for predicting how lake ecosystem properties will change with earlier ice‐off.

Ice behaviors and heat transfer characteristics during the isothermal production process of methane hydrate reservoirs by depressurization

Methane hydrate is a new environmentally friendly alternative energy source in the future. During its conventional production process by depressurization, ice behaviors and heat transfer characteristics are two key factors affecting the hydrate dissociation rate. In this study, different reservoir temperatures (276.2, 277.2 and 278.2 K) and production pressures (2.3, 2.6 and 3.1 MPa) were employed to investigate the methane hydrate production process. Icing, which increases the reservoir temperature and significantly promotes the dissociation of hydrates instantaneously, is generally observed under 2.3 MPa production pressure due to the large temperature decrease by depressurization. Higher initial temperatures decrease both the formation amount and melting duration of ice, and higher production pressures can avoid the formation of ice by decreasing the temperature drop. In addition, both ice melting and hydrate dissociation are isothermal when limited by the external heat supply. During the hundreds of minutes of ice melting process, the area with ice is estimated to shrink gradually. Similarly, the dissociation rate of hydrates is controlled by the heat supply and even becomes constant when the driving force is small enough (high production pressure). The results of this study are significant for the rate control of methane hydrate exploitation.

Remote sensing of lake ice phenology in Alaska

The timing of lake ice breakup and freezeup are important indicators of climate change in Arctic and boreal regions because they respond rapidly and directly to variations in climate conditions. Despite its importance, lake ice phenology remains poorly documented in most lakes of Alaska. To fill this data gap, we constructed a remote sensing-derived lake ice phenology database covering all lakes in Alaska larger than 1 km2 (n = 4241) over the period 2000–2019. This dataset, which includes lake ice on/off dates and lake ice duration, was based on an automatic method using daily moderate resolution imaging spectroradiomenter (MODIS) imagery to measure lake ice fraction. This method extracts lake ice pixels from MODIS images using a dynamic threshold that was calibrated against Landsat Fmask. Different filters that account for clouds, polar night, and other sources of error were applied to increase the accuracy of lake ice phenology estimation. Trend analysis shows earlier breakup (−5.5 d decade−1) for 440 lakes and later breakup (7.5 d decade−1) for four lakes (p < 0.05). A total of 289 lakes had significant trends toward later freezeup (2.9 d decade−1) and 11 lakes towards earlier freezeup (−3.3 d decade−1). Most lakes with significant trends are north of the Brooks Range. This dataset can contribute to increased understanding of interactions between lake processes and climate change, and it supports the study of biogeochemical, limnological and ecological regimes in Alaska and pan-Arctic regions.

Variation in Ice Phenology of Large Lakes over the Northern Hemisphere Based on Passive Microwave Remote Sensing Data

Ice phenology data of 22 large lakes of the Northern Hemisphere for 40 years (1979–2018) have been retrieved from passive microwave remote sensing brightness temperature (Tb). The results were compared with site-observation data and visual interpretation from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectivity products images (MOD09GA). The mean absolute errors of four lake ice phenology parameters, including freeze-up start date (FUS), freeze-up end date (FUE), break-up start date (BUS), and break-up end date (BUE) against MODIS-derived ice phenology were 2.50, 2.33, 1.98, and 3.27 days, respectively. The long-term variation in lake ice phenology indicates that FUS and FUE are delayed; BUS and BUE are earlier; ice duration (ID) and complete ice duration (CID) have a general decreasing trend. The average change rates of FUS, FUE, BUS, BUE, ID, and CID of lakes in this study from 1979 to 2018 were 0.23, 0.23, −0.17, −0.33, −0.67, and −0.48 days/year, respectively. Air temperature and latitude are two dominant driving factors of lake ice phenology. Lake ice phenology for the period 2021–2100 was predicted by the relationship between ice phenology and air temperature for each lake. Compared with lake ice phenology changes from 1990 to 2010, FUS is projected to be delayed by 3.1 days and 11.8 days under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively; BUS is projected to be earlier by 3.3 days and 10.7 days, respectively; and ice duration from 2080 to 2100 will decrease by 6.5 days and 21.9 days, respectively.

Striae in the Antarctic scallop Adamussium colbecki provide environmental insights but not reliable age increments

Subannual growth increments in bivalves provide insight into past seasonal seawater conditions at high temporal resolution. The Antarctic scallop Adamussium colbecki (Smith 1902) accretes putatively fortnightly surficial growth lines (striae) and interstrial growth increments have the potential to archive sea ice variations. Cycles of paired groups of wide and narrow striae are sometimes used to determine ontogenetic age in these scallops, but previous quantitative work describing strial grouping and formation is limited to a few months of juvenile growth. Here, we analyze striae patterns in A. colbecki collected from two sites on western McMurdo Sound, Antarctica that differ by sea ice duration: Explorers Cove with multi-annual sea ice and Bay of Sails with annual sea ice. At both sites, visual analysis of striae groups and cycles (using the methods of previous authors) and wavelet analysis of interstrial increments suggest that striae groups are too variable to age A. colbecki. Only ~ 40% of striae groups and cycles conformed to expectations from annual cycles of fortnightly growth increments (~ 26 striae per cycle). Moreover, only one scallop from each study site displayed consistent periodicity at ~ 26 striae throughout juvenile growth in wavelet analysis. Though striae grouping was inconsistent, analysis of concurrent growth of juvenile scallops from Explorers Cove suggested strong environmental control on interstrial increment size and thus that strial increments are suitable for further analysis as sea ice proxies. Finally, the multi-annual sea ice site had smaller interstrial growth increments and less valve wear than the annual sea ice site, indicating overall slower growth and possibly lower metabolic activity.

Lake thermal structure drives interannual variability in summer anoxia dynamics in a eutrophic lake over 37 years

Abstract. The concentration of oxygen is fundamental to lake water quality and ecosystem functioning through its control over habitat availability for organisms, redox reactions, and recycling of organic material. In many eutrophic lakes, oxygen depletion in the bottom layer (hypolimnion) occurs annually during summer stratification. The temporal and spatial extent of summer hypolimnetic anoxia is determined by interactions between the lake and its external drivers (e.g., catchment characteristics, nutrient loads, meteorology) as well as internal feedback mechanisms (e.g., organic matter recycling, phytoplankton blooms). How these drivers interact to control the evolution of lake anoxia over decadal timescales will determine, in part, the future lake water quality. In this study, we used a vertical one-dimensional hydrodynamic–ecological model (GLM-AED2) coupled with a calibrated hydrological catchment model (PIHM-Lake) to simulate the thermal and water quality dynamics of the eutrophic Lake Mendota (USA) over a 37 year period. The calibration and validation of the lake model consisted of a global sensitivity evaluation as well as the application of an optimization algorithm to improve the fit between observed and simulated data. We calculated stability indices (Schmidt stability, Birgean work, stored internal heat), identified spring mixing and summer stratification periods, and quantified the energy required for stratification and mixing. To qualify which external and internal factors were most important in driving the interannual variation in summer anoxia, we applied a random-forest classifier and multiple linear regressions to modeled ecosystem variables (e.g., stratification onset and offset, ice duration, gross primary production). Lake Mendota exhibited prolonged hypolimnetic anoxia each summer, lasting between 50–60 d. The summer heat budget, the timing of thermal stratification, and the gross primary production in the epilimnion prior to summer stratification were the most important predictors of the spatial and temporal extent of summer anoxia periods in Lake Mendota. Interannual variability in anoxia was largely driven by physical factors: earlier onset of thermal stratification in combination with a higher vertical stability strongly affected the duration and spatial extent of summer anoxia. A measured step change upward in summer anoxia in 2010 was unexplained by the GLM-AED2 model. Although the cause remains unknown, possible factors include invasion by the predacious zooplankton Bythotrephes longimanus. As the heat budget depended primarily on external meteorological conditions, the spatial and temporal extent of summer anoxia in Lake Mendota is likely to increase in the near future as a result of projected climate change in the region.

Ice injected into the tropopause by deep convection – Part 2: Over the Maritime Continent

Abstract. The amount of ice injected into the tropical tropopause layer has a strong radiative impact on climate. A companion paper (Part 1) used the amplitude of the diurnal cycle of ice water content (IWC) as an estimate of ice injection by deep convection, showed that the Maritime Continent (MariCont) region provides the largest injection to the upper troposphere (UT; 146 hPa) and to the tropopause level (TL; 100 hPa). This study focuses on the MariCont region and extends that approach to assess the processes, the areas and the diurnal amount and duration of ice injected over islands and over seas during the austral convective season. The model presented in the companion paper is again used to estimate the amount of ice injected (ΔIWC) by combining ice water content (IWC) measured twice a day by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS; Version 4.2) from 2004 to 2017 and precipitation (Prec) measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM; Version 007) binned at high temporal resolution (1 h). The horizontal distribution of ΔIWC estimated from Prec (ΔIWCPrec) is presented at 2∘×2∘ horizontal resolution over the MariCont. ΔIWC is also evaluated by using the number of lightning events (Flash) from the TRMM-LIS instrument (Lightning Imaging Sensor, from 2004 to 2015 at 1 h and 0.25∘ × 0.25∘ resolution). ΔIWCPrec and ΔIWC estimated from Flash (ΔIWCFlash) are compared to ΔIWC estimated from the ERA5 reanalyses (ΔIWCERA5) with the vertical resolution degraded to that of MLS observations (ΔIWCERA5). Our study shows that the diurnal cycles of Prec and Flash are consistent with each other in phase over land but different over offshore and coastal areas of the MariCont. The observational ΔIWC range between ΔIWCPrec and ΔIWCFlash, interpreted as the uncertainty of our model in estimating the amount of ice injected, is smaller over land (where ΔIWCPrec and ΔIWCFlash agree to within 22 %) than over ocean (where differences are up to 71 %) in the UT and TL. The impact of the MLS vertical resolution on the estimation of ΔIWC is greater in the TL (difference between ΔIWCERA5 and 〈ΔIWCERA5〉 of 32 % to 139 %, depending on the study zone) than in the UT (difference of 9 % to 33 %). Considering all the methods, in the UT, estimates of ΔIWC span 4.2 to 10.0 mg m−3 over land and 0.4 to 4.4 mg m−3 over sea, and in the TL estimates of ΔIWC span 0.5 to 3.9 mg m−3 over land and 0.1 to 0.7 mg m−3 over sea. Finally, based on IWC from MLS and ERA5, Prec and Flash, this study highlights that (1) at both levels, ΔIWC estimated over land can be more than twice that estimated over sea and (2) small islands with high topography present the largest ΔIWC (e.g., island of Java).

Sympatry and resource partitioning between the largest krill consumers around the Antarctic Peninsula

Understanding how closely related, sympatric species distribute themselves relative to their environment is critical to understanding ecosystem structure and function and predicting effects of environmental variation. The Antarctic Peninsula supports high densities of krill and krill consumers; however, the region is warming rapidly, with unknown consequences. Humpback whales Megaptera novaeangliae and Antarctic minke whales Balaenoptera bonaerensis are the largest krill consumers here, yet key data gaps remain about their distribution, behavior, and interactions and how these will be impacted by changing conditions. Using satellite telemetry and novel spatial point-process modeling techniques, we quantified habitat use of each species relative to dynamic environmental variables and determined overlap in core habitat areas during summer months when sea ice is at a minimum. We found that humpback whales ranged broadly over continental shelf waters, utilizing nearshore bays, while minke whales restricted their movements to sheltered bays and areas where ice is present. This presents a scenario where minke whale core habitat overlaps substantially with the broader home ranges of humpback whales. While there is no indication that prey is limiting in this ecosystem, increased overlap between these species may arise as climate-driven changes that affect the extent, timing, and duration of seasonal sea ice decrease the amount of preferred foraging habitat for minke whales while concurrently increasing it for humpback whales. Our results provide the first quantitative assessment of behaviorally based habitat use and sympatry between these 2 krill consumers and offers insight into the potential effects of a rapidly changing environment on the structure and function of a polar ecosystem.

Динамика припая Азовского моря в XXI веке

The article is dedicated to the investigation of the fast ice dynamics for the period 2000–2020 according to satellite data and field observations using GIS technologies. We used data from International Data Center – Sea Ice and coastal observation points to analyze long-term changes. Data processing and analysis was carried out using the ArcGIS 10.4 software package. As a result, data were obtained on the spatial and temporal variability of fast ice in the Sea of Azov for the 2000–2020. The area and width of fast ice, the periods of formation, destruction and duration were analyzed. The maps of the fast ice formation frequency were constructed for each month of the winter period: December–March. It is shown that the duration of fast ice on all coastal observation points decreased: for points on the northern coast Taganrog and Mariupol—by 3–5 days, for points on the southern coast of Taganrog Bay—Yeisk and Dolzhanskaya—by 10–12 days, for point Genichesk—7 days. Average long-term fast ice area for 2000–2020 is 1800 km2. But against the background of an increase in winter air temperatures, the fast ice area is decreasing, and in the last winter periods it is not observed. The width of the fast ice at the northern coast of the Sea of Azov and the Taganrog Bay is 5–10 km. In the western and southeastern parts of the sea (sections Temryuk, Arabatskaya and Obitochny), the fast ice width is 2–5 km on average over the winter and was observed in 25 % of cases.

Assessment of machine learning classifiers for global lake ice cover mapping from MODIS TOA reflectance data

The topic of satellite remote sensing of lake ice has gained considerable attention in recent years. Optical satellite data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) allow for the monitoring of lake ice cover (an Essential Climate Variable or ECV), and dates associated with ice phenology (freeze-up, break-up, and ice cover duration) over large areas in an era where ground-based observational networks have nearly vanished in many northern countries. Ice phenology dates as well as dates of maximum and minimum ice cover extent (for lakes that do not form a complete ice cover in winter or do not totally lose their ice cover in summer) are useful for assessing long-term trends and variability in climate, particularly due to their sensitivity to changes in near-surface air temperature. Existing knowledge-driven (threshold-based) retrieval algorithms for lake ice cover mapping that use top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflectance products do not perform well under lower solar illumination conditions (i.e. large solar zenith angles), resulting in low TOA reflectance. This research assessed the capability of four machine learning classifiers (i.e. multinomial logistic regression, MLR; support vector machine, SVM; random forest, RF; gradient boosting trees, GBT) for mapping lake ice cover, water and cloud cover during both break-up and freeze-up periods using the MODIS/Terra L1B TOA (MOD02) product. The classifiers were trained and validated using samples collected from 17 large lakes across the Northern Hemisphere (Europe and North America); lakes that represent different characteristics with regards to area, latitude, freezing frequency, and ice duration. Following an accuracy assessment using random k-fold cross-validation (k = 100), all machine learning classifiers using a 7-band combination (visible, near-infrared and shortwave-infrared) were found to be able to produce overall classification accuracies above 94%. Both RF and GBT provided overall and class-specific accuracies above 98% and a more visually accurate depiction of lake ice, water and cloud cover. The two tree-based classifiers offered the most robust spatial transferability over the 17 lakes and performed consistently well across ice seasons. However, only RF was relatively insensitive to the choice of the hyperparameters compared to the other three classifiers. The results demonstrate the potential of RF for mapping lake ice cover globally from MODIS TOA reflectance data.

Prediction and Analysis of Lake Ice Phenology Dynamics Under Future Climate Scenarios Across the Inner Tibetan Plateau

AbstractHow climate change influences lake ice phenology is important in understanding the climate‐lake interactions. This study investigates the response of lake ice phenology to future climate scenarios. Thirty‐five lakes in the Tibetan Plateau were studied. Firstly, we applied a random forest (RF) model to simulate lake ice condition under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results of the virtual experiments show that lake ice freeze‐up start date (FUSD) and break‐up end date (BUED) are well simulated by the RF model, with R2FUSD &gt; 0.91 under different RCPs, and R2BUED &gt; 0.84, except in RCP2.6 (R2 = 0.74). Secondly, two non‐parametric methods (Mann‐Kendall and Sen's slope estimator) were used for analyzing the trends in lake ice phenology and its response to various emission scenarios. Lake ice phenology was largely affected by temperature changes under different RCPs, and it had a larger inter‐annual variability in the early period (2002–2050) than in the later period (2050–2099). FUSD of 35 lakes delayed by an average of 0.01, 0.04, and 0.04 days/yr from 2002 to 2098 under RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, whereas BUED advanced by an average of 0.04, 0.11, and 0.21 days/yr from 2003 to 2099. Both delays in FUSD and advances in BUED contributed to shortened average ice duration of 35 lakes, which shortened by 0.05, 0.14, and 0.25 days/yr from 2002 to 2098 under RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, respectively. These findings could help to tackle the impacts of climate change on the lake systems.

Evaluation of the responsiveness of the crustacean zooplankton community size spectrum to environmental change and an exotic invader in a sample of Canadian Shield lakes

We evaluated the crustacean zooplankton size spectrum as an indicator of lake characteristics and ecosystem change. First, we used time series from seven Canadian Shield lakes to identify the factors associated with among-lake and among-year variability in the spectrum slope (relative abundance of small and large zooplankton) and centered height (total abundance). Second, we used time series from an invaded and three control lakes to assess change in mean and variability in slope and height due to a Bythotrephes invasion. We found that the slope and height reflected among-lake predictors related to morphometry. The slope was responsive to long-term declining lake phosphorus levels, whereas the height reflected both increases in dissolved organic carbon and decreases in ice duration. We detected a significant increase (i.e., flattening) in mean slope and substantial (up to 120%) increases in the CV of height after Bythotrephes invaded Harp Lake. Thus, the zooplankton size spectrum was responsive to long-term environmental change, and a strong top-down perturbation can be detected through regular and frequent monitoring programs.

Experimental Investigation on Glaze Ice Accretion and Its Influence on Aerodynamic Characteristics of Pipeline Suspension Bridges

Pipeline suspension bridges may experience ice accretion under special atmospheric conditions, and the aerodynamic characteristics of the bridges may be modified by the ice accretion. Under some specific climatic conditions of freezing rain, the dependencies of the ice size and shape on the icing duration and some structural properties (including pipeline diameter, inclination angle of wind hanger, inclination angle and size of section steel, and girder geometry) were experimentally investigated in a refrigerated precipitation icing laboratory. Typical ice accretions on pipelines, wind hangers, section steels, and girders of pipeline suspension bridges are summarized. Then the effects of some selected ice accretions on aerodynamic force coefficients of a bridge girder were further investigated through wind tunnel tests. The ice size and shape on the pipeline were closely related to the pipeline diameter and icing duration. The engineering geometric models of ice accretion on pipelines were extracted. The ice shape and size on wind hangers and section steels changed with their inclination angles. The aerodynamic force coefficients of a girder with ice accretion were much higher than those of an ice-free one. The results can provide references for simulating the ice accretion and further evaluating the effect of ice accretion on the aerodynamics of pipeline suspension bridges.