Variation in Ice Phenology of Large Lakes over the Northern Hemisphere Based on Passive Microwave Remote Sensing Data

Lei Su,Liyun Dai,Tao Che

doi:10.3390/rs13071389

Abstract

Ice phenology data of 22 large lakes of the Northern Hemisphere for 40 years (1979–2018) have been retrieved from passive microwave remote sensing brightness temperature (Tb). The results were compared with site-observation data and visual interpretation from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectivity products images (MOD09GA). The mean absolute errors of four lake ice phenology parameters, including freeze-up start date (FUS), freeze-up end date (FUE), break-up start date (BUS), and break-up end date (BUE) against MODIS-derived ice phenology were 2.50, 2.33, 1.98, and 3.27 days, respectively. The long-term variation in lake ice phenology indicates that FUS and FUE are delayed; BUS and BUE are earlier; ice duration (ID) and complete ice duration (CID) have a general decreasing trend. The average change rates of FUS, FUE, BUS, BUE, ID, and CID of lakes in this study from 1979 to 2018 were 0.23, 0.23, −0.17, −0.33, −0.67, and −0.48 days/year, respectively. Air temperature and latitude are two dominant driving factors of lake ice phenology. Lake ice phenology for the period 2021–2100 was predicted by the relationship between ice phenology and air temperature for each lake. Compared with lake ice phenology changes from 1990 to 2010, FUS is projected to be delayed by 3.1 days and 11.8 days under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively; BUS is projected to be earlier by 3.3 days and 10.7 days, respectively; and ice duration from 2080 to 2100 will decrease by 6.5 days and 21.9 days, respectively.

Highlights

IntroductionThe average global surface temperature has increased by0.85 ◦ C from 1880 to 2012 [1]
Under a changing climate, the average global surface temperature has increased by0.85 ◦ C from 1880 to 2012 [1]
Six lake ice phenology parameters from 22 large lakes with areas greater than 625 km2 in the Northern Hemisphere have been derived from 18/19 GHz passive microwave Tb of SMMR, Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I), and Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS) from forty ice seasons (1979–2018) by manual identification

Summary

Introduction

The average global surface temperature has increased by0.85 ◦ C from 1880 to 2012 [1]. Comprehensive knowledge of the spatiotemporal variation of lake ice phenology at the hemispheric scale helps understand climate change and its impacts on regional climates. Previous studies have documented significantly earlier ice break-up dates and decreasing ice duration since the 1950s at the hemispheric scale [11,12], and in many typical regions such as in the pan-Arctic [4,13,14,15,16] and the Tibetan Plateau [17,18,19,20,21,22]. The earlier ice break-up dates and decreasing ice durations lead to the increase in spring meltwater and runoff and, subsequently, to changes to the global hydrological cycle.

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion