Loss of Ice Cover, Shifting Phenology, and More Extreme Events in Northern Hemisphere Lakes

Sapna Sharma,Lars G Rudstam,M Arshad Imrit,Julia Daly,David C Richardson,Johanna Korhonen,Dale M Robertson,Kevin Blagrave,Alessandro Filazzola,Nikolay Granin,Damien Bouffard,Gesa A Weyhenmeyer,William Perry,Huaxia Yao,Włodzimierz Marszelewski,R Iestyn Woolway,John Magnuson,Shin‐Ichiro S Matsuzaki

doi:10.1029/2021jg006348

Abstract

AbstractLong‐term lake ice phenological records from around the Northern Hemisphere provide unique sensitive indicators of climatic variations, even prior to the existence of physical meteorological measurement stations. Here, we updated ice phenology records for 60 lakes with time‐series ranging from 107–204 years to provide the first re‐assessment of Northern Hemispheric ice trends since 2004 by adding 15 additional years of ice phenology records and 40 lakes to our study. We found that, on average, ice‐on was 11.0 days later, ice‐off was 6.8 days earlier, and ice duration was 17.0 days shorter per century over the entire record for each lake. Trends in ice‐on and ice duration were six times faster in the last 25‐year period (1992–2016) than previous quarter centuries. More extreme events in recent decades, including late ice‐on, early ice‐off, shorter periods of ice cover, or no ice cover at all, contribute to the increasing rate of lake ice loss. Reductions in greenhouse gas emissions could limit increases in air temperature and abate losses in lake ice cover that would subsequently limit ecological, cultural, and socioeconomic consequences, such as increased evaporation rates, warmer water temperatures, degraded water quality, and the formation of toxic algal blooms.

Highlights

Lake ice cover records have been collected for decades to centuries because of the importance of lake ice for, among other things, winter transportation, fishing, and spiritual ceremonies around the world (Knoll et al, 2019; Magnuson & Lathrop, 2014; Sharma et al, 2016)
We assembled lake ice phenology records with time-series extending over 100 years for 60 Northern Hemisphere lakes (Figure 1); 20 of these same lakes were analyzed by Magnuson et al (2000) and 43 of the lakes analyzed by Benson et al (2012)
Our analysis suggests that in the most recent 25 years where ice observations are available (1995–2019), lake ice phenology has changed at a rate of 72 days/century and −32 days/century in terms of ice-on and iceoff, respectively, and ice duration has changed at a rate of −106 days/century

Summary

Introduction

Lake ice cover records have been collected for decades to centuries because of the importance of lake ice for, among other things, winter transportation (e.g., ice roads), fishing, and spiritual ceremonies around the world (Knoll et al, 2019; Magnuson & Lathrop, 2014; Sharma et al, 2016). Weyhenmeyer, Huaxia Yao Writing – review & editing: Sapna Sharma, David C. Lake ice phenology is considered an important sentinel of climate change (Adrian et al, 2009), as well as essential climate variables (Woolway et al, 2020). A detailed understanding of the timing of lake ice responses to climatic variations is, essential for climate change impact studies

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion