Crime Drop Research Articles

Theory Development and Crime Prevention Insights From the NCVS

The National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) has furnished U.S. crime statistics and high quality data for theory development and policy insights for over 50 years. This article highlights few of these achievements drawing on the development of criminological thinking with regard to measurement, and explanation of victimization and its concentration on a small minority of the population. It overviews lifestyle and the more encompassing environmental criminology theory for victimization, and explanations of multiple victimization, and the international crime drop that relied on NCVS data. Selected crime prevention insight and few recommendations for future research conclude the article.

Examining the Decline in Gender-Specific Youth Offending Since the 1990s: A Decomposition Analysis of Two Cohorts

This study compares gender-specific offending in two cohorts from different historical eras (early 1990s vs. late 2010s). Using KBO decomposition analysis with MTF 12th-grade data ( N = 17,102), the study analyzes changes in social bonds, routine activities, and motivation for crime across genders, assessing their associations with reductions in gender-specific offending. Results suggest consistent behavioral changes across genders. The declines in unstructured socializing and alcohol use are the two most important characteristic changes contributing to the reductions in both male and female offending, but their effect sizes vary across genders. Moreover, the decomposition results underscore that effect changes across cohorts also matter in understanding the gender-specific crime decline, an aspect often overlooked in prior crime trend literature.

Family Formation and Crime

We perform a large-scale analysis of the impact of family formation on crime. For mothers, criminal arrests drop precipitously in the first few months of pregnancy, decreasing 50 percent overall. Men show a sustained 20 percent decline in crime that begins around pregnancy, although arrests for domestic violence spike at birth. A separate design using parents of stillborn children to estimate counterfactual arrest rates reinforces the main findings. Marriage, in contrast, is not associated with any sudden changes and marks the completion of a gradual 50 percent decline in arrests for both men and women. (JEL J12, J16, J22, K42)

The Great American Car Crime Decline

The Great American Car Crime Decline

Addressing Urban Management Challenges for Sustainable Development: Analyzing the Impact of Neighborhood Deprivation on Crime Distribution in Chicago

Urban crime prevention remains a critical challenge intertwined with socioeconomic disparities. This study investigates the spatial nexus between urban deprivation and crime decline in Chicago from 2015 to 2022, addressing the question: How do changes in neighborhood deprivation relate to crime reduction patterns? Using comprehensive crime incident and census tract Area Deprivation Index (ADI) data, this study conducted exploratory spatial analysis, regression modeling, and local bivariate relationship analysis. The findings reveal persistent hotspots of concentrated deprivation on Chicago’s south and west sides, alongside a general citywide crime decline. However, the current research uncovered significant spatial heterogeneity in both deprivation patterns and crime reduction, challenging the achievement of equitable public safety outcomes. Surprisingly, while crime incidents in 2015 and 2022 significantly predicted crime change, ADI scores were not statistically significant predictors in our regression model. Local bivariate analysis exposed diverse relationships between ADI changes and crime rate changes across neighborhoods, with 72.2% of census tracts showing no statistically significant relationship. This underscores the complexity of urban crime dynamics and the importance of local context in understanding these patterns. Our research contributes a nuanced understanding of the intricate relationship between urban deprivation and crime patterns, providing valuable insights for policymakers, law enforcement agencies, and urban planners. These findings highlight the need for integrated, long-term strategies that address both crime prevention and socioeconomic disparities, ultimately fostering safer, more equitable urban environments and informing evidence-based interventions tailored to specific neighborhood contexts.

The Lull Before the Storm? Criminal Justice, Crime and Incarceration in Russia (2000–2020)

The article reviews the design of the criminal justice system and trends in crime in Russia over the last two decades (2000–2020). First, we argue that the criminal justice system is built upon the idea of meeting quotas, which ensures its accountability to the Russian state and downplays its transparency and crime-control efficiency. Second, we analyse recent crime trends and argue that Russia has experienced a long-term drop in crime. Finally, we overview the available evidence on the enforcement of drug laws and the operation of the prison system in Russia.

Exposure to Crime and Racial Birth Outcome Disparities.

Urban communities in the United States were transformed at the end of the twentieth century by a rapid decline in neighborhood crime and violence. We leverage that sharp decline in violence to estimate the relationship between violent crime rates and racial disparities in birth outcomes. Combining birth certificate data from US counties with the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting statistics from 1992 to 2002, we show that lower crime rates are associated with substantially smaller Black-White disparities in birth weight, low birth weight, and small for gestational age. These associations are stronger in more segregated counties, suggesting that the impacts of the crime decline may have been concentrated in places with larger disparities in exposure to crime. We also estimate birth outcome disparities under the counterfactual that the crime decline did not occur and show that reductions in crime statistically explain between one-fifth and one-half of the overall reduction in Black-White birth weight, LBW, and SGA disparities that occurred during the 1990s. Drawing on recent literature showing that exposure to violent crime has negative causal effects on birth outcomes, which in turn influence life-course outcomes, we argue that these results suggest that changes in national crime rates have implications for urban health inequality.

Homicide or Happiness: Did Folate Fortification and Public Health Campaigns Influence Homicide Rates and the Great American Crime Decline?

The last several years have witnessed a remarkable growth in research directed at nutrition and behavior, with increased interest in the field of nutritional criminology. It is becoming clear that dietary patterns and specific nutrients play an important role in cognition and behavior, including those related to aggression, violence, and antisocial activity. Included in this expanding knowledge base is the recognition that folate, through multiple pathways, including enzymatic reactions and gut microbiome ecology, plays a critical role in central nervous system functioning. These mechanistic advances allow for a retrospective analysis of a topic that remains unexplained-the sudden and unpredicted drop in homicide and other violent crime rates in the United States and other nations in the 1990s. Here, we revisit this marked reduction in homicide rates through the lens of the coincident public health campaign (and subsequent mandatory fortification) to increase folic acid intake. Based on objectively measured blood folate levels through the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, there is little doubt that tissue folate witnessed a dramatic rise at the national level from 1988 through 2000. Drawing from accumulated and emerging research on the neurobehavioral aspects of folate, it is our contention that this relatively sudden and massive increase in tissue folate levels may have contributed to reductions in violent crime in the United States.

Disentangling Police-recorded Crime Change in Hong Kong amid the COVID-19 pandemic

Without a doubt, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted the landscape of human life across the globe. It may further lead to a substantial behavioral change in individuals, including the pattern of criminal victimization victimization. Although some previous studies suggested that there was a crime drop in Western societies after the pandemic outbreak, the effect of the pandemic on crime rates in the non-Western context was still vague. Therefore, the present study analyzed the police-recorded data in Hong Kong, a city in the south side of China that continued to enact a "dynamic zero covid" control of positive cases. In line with the previous studies, traditional crime, such as assaults in Hong Kong, dropped steadily after the pandemic outbreak. Yet, surprisingly, the overall crime rate alternatively increased amid the pandemic which is mainly attributed to the surge in cybercrime, especially deceptions and blackmail. This paper thus warrants more thorough investigations of the change in routine activities to the virtual world and the risks of cyber victimizations. Limitations and policy implications were discussed.

Asymmetric crime dynamics in and out of lockdowns

Abstract This article studies the dynamic impact of a temporary policy restricting social encounters due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on criminal activity in Bihar, India. Using a regression discontinuity design in time and criminal case—level and arrest data, I document an immediate drop in crime of over 35% due to the lockdown. Analysis over a longer timespan shows asymmetric dynamics by crime type. The lockdown was more effective in preventing personal crimes such as murders but was less effective in preventing property crimes, which increased beyond pre-lockdown levels once the lockdown was lifted. The increase in property crimes seems to be driven by temporal crime displacement from “former offenders” and not by “new offenders.” These asymmetric dynamics across crime types provide new insights into criminals’ intertemporal decisions (JEL K14, K42).

Repeat victimisation and the crime drop: evidence from Japan

Repeat victimisation and the crime drop: evidence from Japan

Social Solidarity and Crime: The COVID-19 Effect in Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago*

Previous studies used the strain, rational choice, or routine activities approach to explain changes in crime levels after the COVID-19 pandemic. Observed changes have not always been consistent with predictions made by these theoretical approaches. This study uses a social solidarity approach which can be used to better explain observed changes. It is argued that national disasters, such as pandemics, can result in an increase in social solidarity which can have a suppressive effect on crime. Official crime data from Trinidad and Tobago and Jamaica are used to explore this hypothesis. The results from auto-regressive integrated moving average modeling show that there was a decline in crime in Trinidad and Tobago but not in Jamaica after COVID-19 restrictions. The study argues that social solidarity may have increased in Trinidad and Tobago, but not in Jamaica, accounting for the observed differences.

Wheeling into school and out of crime: Evidence from linking driving licenses to minimum academic requirements

“No Pass No Drive” (NPND) laws deny or revoke driver's licenses to minors if they drop out of school, are frequent truants, show behavioral problems, or have a low academic performance. Using Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) arrest data, we exploit state, time, and cohort variation to show that NPND laws are associated with a significant decline in total crime, DUI and property crimes among 16 to 18 year old males, and in DUIs among 16 to 18 year old females. We argue that NPND laws are a relatively low cost policy alternative to compulsory attendance laws that increase education and generate positive externalities. To explore unreported in-school crimes, we use micro data from the Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) and find that NPND laws decrease in-school risky activities. However, we also find that they have unintended consequences for in-school risky behavior when accompanied with strict academic or behavioral requirements.

Countering Islamophobia through Sports: Qatar's Initiatives during the 2022 FIFA World Cup

This paper examines how Qatar used the 2022 FIFA World Cup as a platform to address global Islamophobia. Taking place in the context of a conference on Islamophobia at Georgetown University in Qatar, the study analyzes the role Western media played in reinforcing negative stereotypes and biases against Muslims before and during the event. It highlights Qatar's wide-ranging efforts to educate the public, influence policy, and promote open discussions on how to counteract these prejudices. Special attention is given to the significant role of sports celebrities, particularly football star Mo Salah, in reducing anti-Muslim sentiment. Empirical data support the idea that Salah's public Muslim identity contributed to a decline in hate crimes and negative social media chatter. Additionally, the study explores the possible positive impact, known as the "Qatar effect," that hosting the World Cup could have on reducing negative attitudes towards Muslims. This is similar to how Mo Salah's presence and influence have positively affected public opinion, known as the "Salah effect." The paper also discusses how Qatar infused cultural elements, like Quranic verses and Bedouin traditions, into the event to foster a broader understanding and appreciation of its heritage. It further addresses ethical and human rights concerns such as the conditions of migrant workers and civil liberties, emphasizing the inconsistency in how the world reacts to these issues in different contexts. Overall, this research offers a comprehensive look at how the 2022 FIFA World Cup served as a stage for Qatar to influence global perspectives on Islamophobia while shedding light on the social and political complexities tied to hosting a world-renowned event.

A sharp decline in youth crime: reviewing trends in New Zealand’s youth offending rates between 1998 and 2019

ABSTRACT There is a paucity of research investigating New Zealand’s rates of youth offending. This study examines trends in youth offending data between 1998 and 2019, then compares these with the rate at which emerging adults (aged 17 to 24) entered the justice system during this period. Our approach aimed to explore whether changes in youth offending may have had a downstream impact on rates of justice-system contact among emerging adults. Results indicate that the overall rate at which youth were alleged to have offended (per police data) reduced by 58% between 2010 and 2018, which coincided with a significant reduction in the rates at which emerging adults were imprisoned, sentenced or remanded into custody. Additionally, the rate at which young people were formally charged in Youth Court fell by 73% between 2008 and 2018. However, the rate of decline was less for the overrepresented Indigenous Māori and minority ethnic group of Pasifika young people. Serious offending (including by minority groups) reduced at lesser rates than did less serious offending, while reoffending rates remained fairly static. International trends in reductions of youth offending are examined, and recommendations made to better manage the needs of young people at risk of serious offending.

여성 노인의 범죄두려움에 관한 내러티브 연구

Despite a decline in overall crime in the last decade, the fear of being a victim of crime has increased. The fear of crime is a psychological fear that anyone can have, regardless of gender or age. Research to identify the cause of fear of crime is constantly being conducted both at home and abroad. In particular, research on fear of crime has been carried out quantitatively, focusing on factors such as crime victim experience, crime vulnerability, regional disorder, social integration, and community police activities. However, in quantitative research on fear of crime, it is not easy to clearly identify the cause due to differences in fear of crime among research subjects. Therefore, in this study, we tried to identify the cause of the fear of crime, focusing on the research subjects who were highly aware of the fear of crime. In particular, based on previous studies, this study targeted female elderly people with high fear of crime despite low crime damage. In addition, the causes of fear of crime were divided into personal factors and environmental factors, focusing on female elderly people, and the causes of fear of crime felt by them were identified. As a result of the study, it was investigated that the cause of the fear of crime of the elderly female is the fear of crime due to the vulnerability of crime, and that the media's crime reports and disorder in the region maximize the fear of crime. Based on the results of this study, A public safety policy proposal was made to relieve the fear of crime for the elderly women.

Increased Prescribing of Psychotropic Drugs or School-Based Services for Children with Disabilities? Associations of These Self-control-Boosting Strategies with Juvenile Violence at the State Level.

The increasing rates at which psychotropic drugs have been prescribed to children and adolescents in the USA in the last three decades (since the early 1990s) have prompted questions about whether this trend is associated with the "great American crime decline." Medicalization can be considered one of the strategies to remedy children's neuropsychological deficits and improve their self-control. Another possible remedy is school-based services for children with learning disabilities, mandated by the Individuals with Disabilities Education Improvement Act (IDEA) of 2004. Using state-level panel data analyses for years 1990-2014 (with the main focus on 2000-2014 outcomes), the current study estimates associations between these two developmental self-control remedies-medicalization and school-based services-and minor, moderate, and severe types of juvenile violence, while controlling for relevant covariates (both time-varying and time-invariant). The results of mixed-effects linear regression analyses accounting for powerful time trends show a strong association between increases in school-based services for children with learning disabilities and declines in all types of juvenile violence. Another strong and consistent finding that emerges in the analyses is the link between reductions in child poverty at the state level and decreases in juvenile violence, both contemporaneously and over time. Psychotropic drug prescribing to children (measured using Supplemental Security Income rolls of children with mental health conditions) exhibits inconsistent or insignificant effects. The findings of this study have substantial theoretical and policy implications and indicate the importance of strengthening school-based services for children with disabilities and reducing child poverty as essential violence prevention tools.

The Changing Determinants of Juvenile Crime

Abstract Following decades of increasing crime rates in the U.S., crime participation declined substantially throughout the 1990s, and have remained low in the 2000s. Using the 1979 and 1997 waves of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we identify the determinants of criminal involvement and antisocial behavior. In the 1980s compared to the 2000s, youth from disadvantaged family backgrounds, those with lower skills, and those in urban areas were more disproportionately represented in crime participation. Our results suggest that most of the decline in crime is related to changes in the socio-economic environment and public policy shifts.

Analysing the role of police officer strength in the crime drop in England

Abstract According to evidence from the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW), there have been significant falls in crime levels in England and Wales since the 1990s. Many hypotheses have been proposed to explain these falls. However, there is scarce research on the role of the number of police officers in bringing about the crime drop in the UK. We fitted multilevel models to analyse the role of the number of police officers in the crime drop in England between 1991 and 2001 using a variety of data sources, including police recorded crime data, UK Census data, and police workforce data. We found that the role of police officer strength in the crime drop in England was limited to vehicle thefts, thefts from vehicle, and thefts from person. Given the relatively mixed picture, we recommend that police forces should focus on what newly recruited police officers do and where they are deployed, as opposed to becoming too focussed on the number of officers. More implications of the findings in relation to the recent Police Uplift Programme are discussed.

COVID-19: EMERGENCE OF NEW CRIMES

This article explores the condition of crime in society during COVID-19. The emergence of new crime and the decline in traditional crime gave an immense impact on society. The article discusses the reason behind the increasing rate of new crime. The new crimes like a violation of COVID-19’s norms, smugglers exploiting the high demand for sanitizers to transport illegal alcohol, and the emergence of new criminal groups. The pandemic also leads to an increase in domestic violence, cybercrime, and banking fraud. The traditional offenses are declined by 2, 00,000 cases due to lockdown in India. In which people are restricted to move freely. While some corporate, Government scheme, celebrities, and common people try to help each other to overcome the situation, some find a new opportunity to fulfill their greediness and satisfy their pecuniary interest. The article highlights the need to guide creative minds and respect women’s emotions to avoid catastrophic consequences for society.