A sharp decline in youth crime: reviewing trends in New Zealand’s youth offending rates between 1998 and 2019

Abstract

ABSTRACT There is a paucity of research investigating New Zealand’s rates of youth offending. This study examines trends in youth offending data between 1998 and 2019, then compares these with the rate at which emerging adults (aged 17 to 24) entered the justice system during this period. Our approach aimed to explore whether changes in youth offending may have had a downstream impact on rates of justice-system contact among emerging adults. Results indicate that the overall rate at which youth were alleged to have offended (per police data) reduced by 58% between 2010 and 2018, which coincided with a significant reduction in the rates at which emerging adults were imprisoned, sentenced or remanded into custody. Additionally, the rate at which young people were formally charged in Youth Court fell by 73% between 2008 and 2018. However, the rate of decline was less for the overrepresented Indigenous Māori and minority ethnic group of Pasifika young people. Serious offending (including by minority groups) reduced at lesser rates than did less serious offending, while reoffending rates remained fairly static. International trends in reductions of youth offending are examined, and recommendations made to better manage the needs of young people at risk of serious offending.