Addressing Urban Management Challenges for Sustainable Development: Analyzing the Impact of Neighborhood Deprivation on Crime Distribution in Chicago

Abstract

Urban crime prevention remains a critical challenge intertwined with socioeconomic disparities. This study investigates the spatial nexus between urban deprivation and crime decline in Chicago from 2015 to 2022, addressing the question: How do changes in neighborhood deprivation relate to crime reduction patterns? Using comprehensive crime incident and census tract Area Deprivation Index (ADI) data, this study conducted exploratory spatial analysis, regression modeling, and local bivariate relationship analysis. The findings reveal persistent hotspots of concentrated deprivation on Chicago’s south and west sides, alongside a general citywide crime decline. However, the current research uncovered significant spatial heterogeneity in both deprivation patterns and crime reduction, challenging the achievement of equitable public safety outcomes. Surprisingly, while crime incidents in 2015 and 2022 significantly predicted crime change, ADI scores were not statistically significant predictors in our regression model. Local bivariate analysis exposed diverse relationships between ADI changes and crime rate changes across neighborhoods, with 72.2% of census tracts showing no statistically significant relationship. This underscores the complexity of urban crime dynamics and the importance of local context in understanding these patterns. Our research contributes a nuanced understanding of the intricate relationship between urban deprivation and crime patterns, providing valuable insights for policymakers, law enforcement agencies, and urban planners. These findings highlight the need for integrated, long-term strategies that address both crime prevention and socioeconomic disparities, ultimately fostering safer, more equitable urban environments and informing evidence-based interventions tailored to specific neighborhood contexts.