Downwelling Kelvin Research Articles

Role of mesoscale eddies on atmospheric convection during summer monsoon season over the Bay of Bengal: A case study

Our study aims to understand the variability of oceanic mesoscale eddies during contrasting (2009 and 2013) monsoon seasons and the role of such eddies on atmospheric deep convection over the Bay of Bengal (BoB). Oceanic eddies are detected and tracked using sea surface height anomalies (SSHA), by employing the Okubo-Weiss parameter eddy detection method. Significant differences in the SSHA and eddy activity are evident during the contrasting monsoon years. During the year 2013 (2009), anticyclonic eddies are predominant (absent) in the eastern BoB and longer (shorter) lifespans of cyclonic eddies are observed in the northern and western BoB. Analysis of time-longitude SSHA and zonal wind stress reveals the presence of strong (weak) equatorial downwelling Kelvin waves, coastal Kelvin waves and Rossby waves in the BoB during 2013 (2009) Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The variability of eddies in the BoB during contrasting monsoons is attributed by the remote forcing effect of planetary scale waves. Our study is extended to investigate the associated atmospheric deep convection over the regions of cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies. Lag-correlations demonstrates that SSHA leads the outgoing longwave radiation by four days over anticyclonic eddy regions. Findings from the present study provide new insight into the internal dynamics of the ocean.

Combined Role of High- and Low-Frequency Processes of Equatorial Zonal Transport in Terminating an ENSO Event

This study investigates the sudden reversal of anomalous zonal equatorial transport above thermocline at the peak phase of ENSO. The oceanic processes associated with zonal transport are separated into low-frequency ENSO cycle and high-frequency oceanic wave processes. Both processes can generate a reversal of equatorial zonal current at the ENSO peak phase, which is a trigger for the rapid termination of ENSO events. For the low-frequency process, zonal transport exhibits slower and basinwide evolution. During the developing phase of El Niño (La Niña), eastward (westward) transport prevails in the central-eastern Pacific, which enhances ENSO. At the peak of ENSO, a basinwide reversal of the zonal transport resulting from the recharge–discharge process occurs and weakens the existing SST anomalies. High-frequency zonal transport presents clear eastward propagation related to Kelvin wave propagation at the equator, reflection at the eastern boundary, and the westward propagating Rossby waves. The major westerly wind bursts (easterly wind surges) occur in late boreal summer and fall with coincident downwelling (upwelling) Kelvin waves for El Niño (La Niña) events. After the peak of El Niño (La Niña), Kelvin waves reach the eastern boundary in boreal winter and reflect as off-equatorial Rossby waves; then, the zonal transport switches from eastward (westward) to westward (eastward). The high-frequency zonal transport can be represented by equatorial wave dynamics captured by the first three EOFs based on the high-pass-filtered equatorial thermocline. The transport anomaly during the decaying phase is dominated by the low-frequency process in El Niño. However, the transport anomaly is caused by both low- and high-frequency processes during La Niña.

Why 1986 El Ni\xf1o and 2005 La Ni\xf1a evolved different from a typical El Ni\xf1o and La Ni\xf1a

1986 El Niño (EN) and 2005 La Niña (LN) experienced distinctive evolution features compared to the typical EN and LN events. The 1986 EN persisted for more than 2 years, whereas the 2005 LN transitioned into a warm episode in the following winter. The physical mechanisms that caused the distinctive evolution features are investigated through an oceanic mixed-layer heat budget (MLHB) analysis. For both cases, major differences with typical EN and LN lie in wind induced anomalous zonal advection and thermocline feedback terms. An anomalous cyclone appeared over the western North Pacific (WNPC) in late 1986, in contract to an anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) during the mature winter of the typical EN. The eastward propagation of anomalous convective heating from tropical Indian Ocean in late 1986 holds a key for generating the anomalous WNPC in the mature winter of 1986/87 EN. The equatorial westerly anomaly south of the WNPC triggered downwelling Kelvin waves, prolonging the positive SSTA throughout 1987. The negative SSTA center of the 2005 LN shifted eastward by at least 20° in longitude compared to the typical LN. As a result, an anomalous WNPC, with pronounced westerly anomalies at the equator, developed in the 2005 LN mature phase. This led to a rapid decay of the 2005 LN, and by the following boreal summer a positive SSTA formed. The season-dependent air-sea feedback further strengthens the warming in northern fall, leading to a transition from LN to EN in the succeed winter.

Main processes of the Atlantic cold tongue interannual variability

The interannual variability of the Atlantic cold tongue (ACT) is studied by means of a mixed-layer heat budget analysis. A method to classify extreme cold and warm ACT events is proposed and applied to ten various analysis and reanalysis products. This classification allows 5 cold and 5 warm ACT events to be selected over the period 1982–2007. Cold (warm) ACT events are defined by the presence of negative (positive) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies at the center of the equatorial Atlantic in late boreal spring, preceded by negative (positive) zonal wind stress anomalies in the western equatorial Atlantic. An ocean general circulation model capable of reconstructing the interannual variability of the ACT correctly is used to demonstrate that cold ACT events develop rapidly from May to June mainly due to intense cooling by vertical mixing and horizontal advection. The simulated cooling at the center of the basin is the result of the combined effects of non-local and local processes. The non-local process is an upwelling associated with an eastward-propagating Kelvin wave, which makes the mixed-layer more shallow and preconditions the upper layers to be cooled by an intense heat loss at the base of the mixed-layer, which is amplified by a stronger local injection of energy from the atmosphere. The early cooling by vertical mixing in March is also shown to be a good predictor of June cooling. In July, horizontal advection starts to warm the mixed-layer abnormally and damps SST anomalies. The advection anomalies, which result from changes in the horizontal temperature gradient, are associated in some cases with the propagation of Rossby waves along the equator. During warm ACT events, processes are reversed, generating positive SST anomalies: a downwelling Kelvin wave triggers stratification anomalies and mixed-layer depth anomalies, amplified by a weaker injection of energy from the atmosphere in May–June. In July, warm ACT events are abnormally cooled due to negative horizontal advection anomalies resulting from processes similar to those that occur during cold ACT events. This additional cooling process extends the period of cooling of the ACT, reducing SST anomalies.

The extreme El Niño of 2015–2016: the role of westerly and easterly wind bursts, and preconditioning by the failed 2014 event

At the beginning of 2015, as one year earlier in 2014, the scientific community anticipated that El Nino conditions could develop in the tropical Pacific by year-end. Such projections were related to the occurrence of westerly wind bursts during winter–spring of each year that generated strong downwelling Kelvin waves indicative of an emerging El Nino. However, the event’s progression quickly stalled in 2014, but actively continued in 2015, leading to an extreme warm event (comparable to 1997 or 1982). Here, we compare climate evolution during these two years using satellite observations and numerical simulations. We show that during 2014, El Nino development was interrupted mid-year by an exceptionally strong easterly wind burst, whereas during the second year it continued through the summer. Further, we show that the failed 2014 event created favorable conditions for El Nino development during the next year, as it kept ocean heat content recharged and the western Pacific warm pool extended eastward. Subsequently, the winter–spring westerly wind bursts in 2015 were followed by a series of state-dependent westerly bursts as part of a strong positive Bjerknes feedback. Analogue simulations with a coupled GCM wherein we superimpose the observed sequences of westerly and easterly wind bursts support these conclusions, stressing the role of the failed 2014 event in preconditioning the ocean–atmosphere system for the development of an extreme El Nino. In our simulations the probability of an extreme event following early-year westerly wind bursts increases from 14% to nearly 60% due to this preconditioning. Thus, the interplay between westerly and easterly wind bursts shapes El Nino development and diversity.

Modulation of Tropical Instability Wave Intensity by Equatorial Kelvin Waves

AbstractTropical instability waves (TIWs) and equatorial Kelvin waves are dominant sources of intraseasonal variability in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and both play important roles in the heat and momentum budgets of the large-scale flow. While individually they have been well studied, little is known about how these two features interact, although satellite observations suggest that TIW propagation speed and amplitude are modulated by Kelvin waves. Here, the influence of Kelvin waves on TIW kinetic energy (TIWKE) is examined using an ensemble set of 1/4° ocean model simulations of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The results suggest that TIWKE can be significantly modified by 60-day Kelvin waves. To leading order, TIWs derive kinetic energy from the meridional shear and available potential energy of the background zonal currents, while losing TIWKE to friction and the radiation of waves. The passage of Kelvin waves disrupts this balance. Downwelling (upwelling) Kelvin waves induce decay (growth) in TIWKE through modifications to the background currents and the TIWs’ Reynolds stresses. These modulations in TIWKE affect eddy heat fluxes and the downward radiation of waves, with implications for the variability of SST and the energetics of abyssal flows in the eastern equatorial Pacific.

Ocean–atmosphere processes driving Indian summer monsoon biases in CFSv2 hindcasts

This paper analyzes the role of the Indian Ocean (IO) and the atmosphere biases in generating and sustaining large-scale precipitation biases over Central India (CI) during the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) in the climate forecast system version 2 (CFSv2) hindcasts that are produced by initializing the system each month from January 1982 to March 2011. The CFSv2 hindcasts are characterized by a systematic dry monsoon bias over CI that deteriorate with forecast lead-times and coexist with a wet bias in the tropical IO suggesting a large-scale interplay between coupled ocean–atmosphere and land biases. The biases evolving from spring-initialized forecasts are analyzed in detail to understand the evolution of summer biases. The northward migration of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) that typically crosses the equator in the IO sector during April in nature is delayed in the hindcasts when the forecast system is initialized in early spring. Our analyses show that the delay in the ITCZ coexists with wind and SST biases and the associated processes project onto the seasonal evolution of the coupled ocean–atmosphere features. This delay in conjunction with the SST and the wind biases during late spring and early summer contributes to excessive precipitation over the ocean and leading to a deficit in rainfall over CI throughout the summer. Attribution of bias to a specific component in a coupled forecast system is particularly challenging as seemingly independent biases from one component affect the other components or are affected by their feedbacks. In the spring-initialized forecasts, the buildup of deeper thermocline in association with warmer SSTs due to the enhanced Ekman pumping in the southwest IO inhibits the otherwise typical northward propagation of ITCZ in the month of April. Beyond this deficiency in the forecasts, two key ocean–atmosphere coupled mechanisms are identified; one in the Arabian Sea, where a positive windstress curl bias in conjunction with warmer SSTs lead to a weakening of Findlater jet and the other in the east equatorial IO where a remote forcing by the predominantly westerly bias in the western-central equatorial IO in the summer strengthen the seasonal downwelling Kelvin wave that in turn deepens the thermocline in the eastern IO. The equatorial Kelvin wave continues as a coastal Kelvin wave and disperses as Rossby waves off Sumatra and induces positive SST and precipitation biases in the eastern and southern Bay of Bengal. This study shows that the biases that first appear in winds lead to a cascade of coupled processes that exacerbate the subsequent biases by modulating the evolution of seasonal processes such as the annual Kelvin and Rossby waves and the cross-equatorial vertically integrated moisture transport. While this analysis does not offer any particular insights into improving the ISM forecasts, it is a foundational first step towards this goal.

A comparative study on the dominant factors responsible for the weaker-than-expected El Niño event in 2014

Anomalous warming occurred in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific in early May 2014, attracting much attention to the possible occurrence of an extreme El Nino event that year because of its similarity to the situation in early 1997. However, the subsequent variation in sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) during summer 2014 in the tropical Pacific was evidently different to that in 1997, but somewhat similar to the situation of the 1990 aborted El Nino event. Based on NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) oceanic and atmospheric reanalysis data, the physical processes responsible for the strength of El Nino events are examined by comparing the dominant factors in 2014 in terms of the preceding instability of the coupled ocean–atmosphere system and westerly wind bursts (WWBs) with those in 1997 and 1990, separately. Although the unstable ocean–atmosphere system formed over the tropical Pacific in the preceding winter of 2014, the strength of the preceding instability was relatively weak. Weak oceanic eastward-propagating downwelling Kelvin waves were forced by the weak WWBs over the equatorial western Pacific in March 2014, as in February 1990. The consequent positive upper-oceanic heat content anomalies in the spring of 2014 induced only weak positive SSTAs in the central-eastern Pacific–unfavorable for the subsequent generation of summertime WWB sequences. Moreover, the equatorial western Pacific was not cooled, indicating the absence of positive Bjerknes feedback in early summer 2014. Therefore, the development of El Nino was suspended in summer 2014.

Why were some La Niñas followed by another La Niña?

This paper investigates why some La Nina events are followed by another La Nina and some others are not. We propose two preconditions that result in continuation of a La Nina. The first one is that La Nina must be a strong event (a major La Nina). This ensures that the reflected Rossby wave signal at the eastern boundary of the Pacific has a strong westward propagating cold ocean temperature anomaly over the off-equatorial region. The off-equator cold anomaly may not be conducive to the equatorial recharge process, and as a result, may favor the persistence of cold ocean subsurface temperature anomaly and prevent the transition from La Nina to El Nino. The second precondition is whether there are eastward propagating downwelling Kelvin waves during the decay phase of a major La Nina. Eastward propagating downwelling Kelvin waves could lead to demise for a tendency for a follow-up La Nina. The equatorial Kelvin wave activities are associated with fluctuations of surface wind in the equatorial far-western Pacific. The analysis suggests that both the surface wind in the equatorial far-western Pacific and the recharge/discharge of the equatorial Pacific are indicators for occurrence or no occurrence of a follow-up La Nina event.

Why was the 2008 Indian Ocean Dipole a short-lived event?

In this paper, the role of equatorial oceanic waves in affecting the evolution of the 2008 positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event was evaluated using available observations and output from a quasi-analytical linear wave model. It was found that the 2008 positive IOD was an early matured and abruptly terminated event: developed in April, matured in July, and diminished in September. During the development and the maturation of the 2008 positive IOD event, the wind-forced Rossby waves played a dominant role in generating zonal current anomalies in the western equatorial Indian Ocean, while a complex interplay between the wind-forced upwelling Kelvin waves and the eastern-boundary-generated Rossby waves accounted for most of the variability in the eastern basin. The latter induced eastward zonal current anomalies near the eastern boundary during the peak phase of the event. The 2008 positive IOD event was abruptly terminated in mid-July. We found that there were strong eastward zonal currents in mid-July, though the surface wind anomalies in the eastern basin continued to be westward (upwelling favorable). Our analysis shows that these eastward zonal currents mainly resulted from the easternboundary-generated upwelling Rossby waves, although the contribution from the wind-forced downwelling Kelvin waves was not negligible. These eastward zonal currents terminated the zonal heat advection and provided a favorable condition for surface heat flux to warm the eastern basin.

Episodic phytoplankton bloom events in the Bay of Bengal triggered by multiple forcings

Two episodic phytoplankton bloom events were identified in the southeastern and southwestern Bay of Bengal in January 1998 and December 2005, respectively, from SeaWiFS-derived chlorophyll-a concentration data collected between September 1997 and December 2010. Possible causes were examined using time series datasets of satellite-derived sea surface height anomalies, sea surface temperature, wind stress and Ekman pumping velocity data. It was found that strong cyclonic eddies with long residence time transported cold, nutrient-rich water from the subsurface layer to the euphotic zone, and were responsible for sustaining the continuous growth of phytoplankton that led to the two aforementioned phytoplankton blooms. Moreover, regarding the event in December 2005, three tropical cyclones passed through the region of the phytoplankton bloom and could have been additional factors that enhanced the bloom. Regarding the event in January 1998, transportation from the adjacent Andaman Sea by the geostrophic current and an anomalous zonal easterly wind contributed to the phytoplankton bloom in the southeastern Bay of Bengal. In addition, both blooms occurred during Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) years. The absence of the second downwelling Kelvin waves in positive IOD year of 1997–1998 favouring the long residence of the strong cyclonic eddy in the eastern bay, and the strong wind-induced mixing in negative IOD year of 2005 might contribute to enhancing productivity.

Influence of El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole on sea level variability in the Bay of Bengal

Zonally oscillating seasonal equatorial winds generate pairs of upwelling and downwelling Kelvin waves in the Equatorial Indian Ocean, which then advance in to the coastal Bay of Bengal. The first (second) equatorial upwelling Kelvin wave has its origin in the western (eastern) basin, whereas the downwelling Kelvin waves originate in the central basin. The observed interannual variability of these Kelvin waves is highly governed by the associated zonal wind changes in the central and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean during the anomalous years. The second downwelling (upwelling) Kelvin wave is absent (weak) during El Niño (La Niña) years, whereas the second upwelling Kelvin wave strengthened during El Niño years both in the equatorial Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal. The large scale off equatorial Rossby waves occasionally feedback the equatorial Kelvin waves, which then strengthen the Bay of Bengal coastal Kelvin waves. The coastal Kelvin waves and the associated radiated Rossby waves from east play a dominant role in the mesoscale eddy generation in Bay of Bengal. The analysis of cyclogenesis characteristics in the bay over the past 65 years revealed that the active (suppressed) phases of cyclogenesis are coinciding with the downwelling (upwelling) planetary waves which influence the cyclone heat potential by altering the thermocline depth.

Interannual variability of Kelvin wave propagation in the wave guides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, the coastal Bay of Bengal and the southeastern Arabian Sea during 1993–2006

The observed variability of the Kelvin waves and their propagation in the equatorial wave guide of the Indian Ocean and in the coastal wave guides of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the southeastern Arabian Sea (AS) on seasonal to interannual time scales during years 1993–2006 is examined utilizing all the available satellite and in-situ measurements. The Kelvin wave regime inferred from the satellite-derived sea surface height anomalies (SSHA) shows a distinct annual cycle composed of two pairs of alternate upwelling (first one occurring during January–March and the second one occurring during August–September) and downwelling (first one occurring during April–June and the second one occurring during October–December) Kelvin waves that propagate eastward along the equator and hit the Sumatra coast and bifurcate. The northern branches propagate counterclockwise over varied distances along the coastal wave guide of the BoB. The potential mechanisms that contribute to the mid-way termination of the first upwelling and the first downwelling Kelvin waves in the wave guide of the BoB are hypothesized. The second downwelling Kelvin wave alone reaches the southeastern AS, and it shows large interannual variability caused primarily by similar variability in the equatorial westerly winds during boreal fall. The westward propagating downwelling Rossby waves triggered by the second downwelling Kelvin wave off the eastern rim of the BoB also shows large interannual variability in the near surface thermal structure derived from SODA analysis. The strength of the equatorial westerlies driven by the east–west gradient of the heat sources in the troposphere appears to be a critical factor in determining the observed interannual variability of the second downwelling Kelvin wave in the wave guides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, the coastal BoB, and the southeastern AS.

Subsurface equatorial zonal current in the eastern Indian Ocean

Variations of subsurface zonal current in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean are investigated by examining 6‐year data (December 2000–November 2006) from acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) mooring at 0°S, 90°E. The analysis indicates the presence of an eastward equatorial subsurface current between 90 and 170 m depths during both boreal winter and summer. During boreal winter, the generation of eastward pressure gradient, which drives an eastward flow in the thermocline, is caused primarily by upwelling equatorial Kelvin waves excited by prevailing easterly winds. On the other hand, the downwelling Rossby waves generated by the reflection of the spring downwelling Kelvin waves in the eastern boundary, as well as the upwelling equatorial Kelvin waves triggered by easterlies, create an oceanic state that favors the generation of the eastward pressure gradient during boreal summer. The subsurface current reveals a distinct seasonal asymmetry. The maximum eastward speed of 63 cm s−1 is observed in April, and secondary maximum of 49 cm s−1 is seen in October. The zonal transport per unit width within depth of the subsurface current exhibits similar variations: reaching maximum eastward transport of 35 m2 s−1 in April and secondary maximum of 29 m2 s−1 in October. Moreover, the subsurface current during boreal summer undergoes significant interannual variations; it was absent in 2003, but it was anomalously strong during 2006.

Barrier layer variability in the western Pacific warm pool from 2000 to 2007

Major features of the equatorial portion of the western Pacific warm pool (WP) were brought to light through the analysis of an unprecedented collection of temperature and salinity profiles derived from Argo floats from 2000 to 2007. A region of thick (>15–25 m) and quasi‐permanent barrier layers (BLs) was found to occur in a band from 10° to 20° longitude to the west of the maximum zonal sea surface salinity gradient (∂S/∂x), which occurs at the eastern edge of the WP. In this region, thick BLs and associated maxima (∂S/∂x) were displaced eastward (westward) during El Niño (La Niña) over a distance of more than 6000 km. The thickness of the BL in this region is, to the first order, proportional to ∂S/∂x and quasi‐permanently associated with the occurrence of sea surface temperatures warmer than 28–29°C, which are a good proxy for maximum atmospheric convection for the current Pacific climate. Statistics indicated that a thick BL forms preferentially under low wind conditions, heavy precipitation, eastward advection of low sea surface salinity, zonal current vertical shear, and/or in conjunction with equatorial downwelling Kelvin and Rossby waves (favoring the vertical stretching of the upper water column). None of these processes seemed to dominate the others, indicating that the formation of a thick BL results from a combination of different and complex mechanisms. The fact that a thick BL represents a quasi‐permanent feature in the WP signifies that its specific stratification and likely impact on the sea surface temperature balance should be accounted for in coupled models.

A possible role for unstable coupled waves affected by resonance between Kelvin waves and seasonal warming in the development of the strong 1997–1998 El Niño

Time-varying air–sea coupled processes in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific associated with strong El Niño development during the 1997–1998 period are examined using a newly developed reanalysis dataset obtained from four-dimensional variational ocean–atmosphere coupled data assimilation experiments. The time series of this data field exhibits realistic features of El Niño evolution. Our analysis indicates that resonance between eastward-propagating oceanic downwelling Kelvin waves and the seasonal rise of sea-surface temperature (SST) in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific generates relatively persistent high SST conditions accompanied by a deeper thermocline and more relaxed easterly winds than usual. The surface condition resulting from the wave-seasonal SST resonance represents a preconditioned state that leads to an enhancement in incident downwelling Kelvin waves to levels sufficient to induce large-amplitude unstable coupled waves in the central to eastern equatorial region. Heat balance estimates using our reanalysis dataset suggest that the unstable coupled waves are categorized within the intermediate regime of coupled Kelvin and Rossby waves and have the potential to grow rapidly. We argue that the seasonal resonance and the unstable coupled waves should play crucial roles in the development of the largest historical El Niño event, which was recorded between late 1997 and early 1998.

Role of the initial ocean state for the 2006 El Niño

In this study, we present results which are designed to isolate the role of the ocean initial condition prior to the 2006 El Niño. Analysis of the differences between model experiments with the same forcing but different initial conditions shows several key dynamical elements of the 2006 El Niño that were evident in the initial state of the ocean. Between November 2005 and March 2006, the eastern Pacific was cold due to an upwelling Kelvin wave. By May 2006, the combined impact of downwelling Kelvin and upwelling Rossby waves had carried warm SST eastward over the entire equatorial Pacific. From May until September, westward advection of cold waters by a downwelling Rossby wave temporarily reduced temperatures in the tropical Pacific. The El Niño was fully manifest when the second downwelling Kelvin wave traversed the Pacific in October to December 2006. A statistical atmospheric model forced by the sea surface temperature anomalies from these experiments isolates the atmospheric response to oceanic initial condition and can help guide coupled model forecasts. East of the dateline, easterlies limit the early growth of this event prior to May 2006 through destructive interference of any downwelling signal. During May 2006, warm SST is associated with westerly wind anomalies which stretch across the entire basin. However, cold advection from an upwelling Rossby wave limits the duration of these westerlies. After July, westerlies prevail over the central Pacific as the 2006 El Niño develops into a fully coupled event. Although high quality global ocean observations allow ever improving estimates of the initial ocean state for coupled ocean‐atmosphere prediction models, the amplitude of 2006 El Niño was under‐predicted prior to September 2006 as measured by composite forecast indices. Our methodology of isolating the role of the initial state of the ocean reproduces all the major features of the 2006 event and has merit for use in conjunction with coupled‐model forecasts to improve long‐range predictions of El Niño.

Triggering of El Ni�o by westerly wind events in a coupled general circulation model

Two ten-members ensemble experiments using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model are performed to study the dynamical response to a strong westerly wind event (WWE) when the tropical Pacific has initial conditions favourable to the development of a warm event. In the reference ensemble (CREF), no wind perturbation is introduced, whereas a strong westerly wind event anomaly is introduced in boreal winter over the western Pacific in the perturbed ensemble (CWWE). Our results demonstrate that an intense WWE is capable of establishing the conditions under which a strong El Niño event can occur. First, it generates a strong downwelling Kelvin wave that generates a positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the central-eastern Pacific amplified through a coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction. This anomaly can be as large as 2.5°C 60 days after the WWE. Secondly, this WWE also initiates an eastward displacement of the warm-pool that promotes the occurrence of subsequent WWEs in the following months. These events reinforce the initial warming through the generation of additional Kelvin waves and generate intense surface jets at the eastern edge of the warm-pool that act to further shift warm waters eastward. The use of a ten-members ensemble however reveals substantial differences in the coupled response to a WWE. Whereas four members of CWWE ensemble develop into intense El Niño warming as described above, four others display a moderate warming and two remains in neutral conditions. This diversity between the members appears to be due to the internal atmospheric variability during and following the inserted WWE. In the four moderate warm cases, the warm-pool is initially shifted eastward following the inserted WWE, but the subsequent weak WWE activity (when compared to the strong warming cases) prevents to further shift the warm-pool eastwards. The seasonal strengthening of trade winds in June–July can therefore act to shift warm waters back into the western Pacific, reducing the central-eastern Pacific warming. This strong sensitivity of the coupled response to WWEs may therefore limit the predictability of El Niño events, as the high frequency wind variability over the warm pool region remains largely unpredictable even at short time lead.

The interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean as simulated by a CGCM

The interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean, and in particular the Indian Ocean dipole mode (IODM), is investigated using both observations and a multi-decadal simulations performed by the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model SINTEX. Overall, the characteristics of the simulated IODM are close to the features of the observed mode. Evidence of significant correlations between sea level pressure anomalies in the southeastern Indian Ocean and sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans have been found both in observations and a multi-decadal simulation. In particular, a positive SLP anomaly in the southeastern part of the basin seems to produce favorable conditions for the development of an IODM event. The role played by the ocean dynamics both in the developing and closing phases of the IODM events is also investigated. Our results suggest that, during the developing phase, the heat content and SST variability associated with the IODM are influenced by a local response of the ocean to the winds, and a remote response with the excitation of Kelvin and Rossby waves. Ocean wave dynamics appear to be important also during the dying phase of the IODM, when equatorial downwelling Kelvin waves transport positive heat content anomalies from the western to the eastern part of the basin, suppressing the zonal heat content anomaly gradient. The results obtained from the model suggest a mechanism for the IODM. This mechanism is generally consistent with the characteristics of the observed IODM. Furthermore, it might give some clue in understanding the correlation between IODM and ENSO activity found both in the model and in the observations.

Ocean response to the March 1997 Westerly Wind Event

An Ocean General Circulation Model is used to investigate the oceanic response to the March 1997 Westerly Wind Event that is suggested to have played an important role in the onset of the 1997–1998 El Niño. Our results point out three distinct impacts. First a strong wind‐forced downwelling Kelvin wave propagates eastward generating sea surface temperature anomalies up to 1°C and large subsurface temperature and zonal current anomalies, mainly located in the core of the thermocline. Second the northward and westward extension of this wind event is responsible for a surface advection of cold waters from 130°E–5°N to the equator. Third it generates large zonal surface currents at the eastern edge of the warm and fresh pool by a nonlinear interaction between the wind‐forced surface jet and the local thermohaline front. Salinity through both its contribution to the local zonal pressure gradient at the front and the barrier layer effect is crucial in the occurrence of this nonlinear mechanism. The fast displacement of the front (2000 km in a month) together with the cooling in the western Pacific is likely to be responsible for the eastward displacement of atmospheric deep convection and eastward winds observed in April–June 1997 and thus to have played a major role in initiating the El Niño of the century.