Downstream Countries Research Articles

Trends of forest cover and prospects of Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) to Ethiopia and the downstream countries

The need for forest products, agricultural expansion, and dependency on biomass for the household energy source has largely influenced Ethiopia’s forest resources. Consequently, the country lost its forest resources to less than 6% until the millennium. In this study, quantitative and qualitative historical data analysis was employed to understand the socioeconomic benefits of large dam construction to Ethiopia and downstream countries. Moreover, remotely sensed data was also used to analyze the trends of vegetation cover change in the Nile catchment since the commencement of the dam; focusing on areas where there are high settlement and urban areas. It was identified that Ethiopia has one of the lowest electricity consumption per capita in Africa; about 91% of the source of household energy supply depends on fuelwood today and more than 55.7% of the population does not have access to electricity. The normalized difference vegetation index result shows an increment of vegetation area in the Nile catchment and a reduction of no vegetation area from 2011–2021 by 37.1%; which is directly related to the protection of the dam catchment for its sustainability in the last decade. The hydroelectric dam construction has prospects of multi-benefit to Ethiopia and downstream countries either through the direct benefit of hydropower energy production, related socioeconomic values, and reducing risks of destructive flood from Ethiopian highlands. Generally, it explains the reason why to not say ‘No’ to the reservoir as it is an ever more vital tool for fulfilling growing energy demand and supporting ecological stability.

Geopolitics of the Horn of Africa: Arab Countries’ Stance on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, with Special Focus on the GCC Position

The Horn of Africa holds a strategic position, bordering on the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the Indian Ocean, and the Nile region. The Bab al-Mandab Strait, which connects three continents – Asia, Africa, and Europe-lie within its ambit. Over the past decade, external powers have begun to take a heightened interest in this region. Consequently, security issues in this strategically vital area have become increasingly salient, and local conflicts, famines, the proliferation of terrorist groups and maritime piracy have all found their way onto wider regional and international agendas. The current conflict between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is of particular significance in this new scenario. This paper explores the position of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and the general Arab stance on the dispute. It is worth noting that despite the considerable efforts made by Egyptian diplomacy to establish a unified Arab position on the Renaissance Dam issue, there are significant differences among Arab countries in regard to the issue. At the level of the GCC countries, the United Arab Emirates adopts a relatively flexible and neutral position, sometimes positioning itself as a mediator between the conflicting parties. Conversely, Kuwait maintains a firm stance in support of the Egyptian-Sudanese position, considering water security for Egypt and Sudan as a justifiable national security concern for the two countries. Saudi Arabia appears to be neutral in the conflict and emphasises that the African Union should play the primary role in resolving the issue. Even the two downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan, have failed to adopt cohesive stances on the issue. At the Arab Summit held in Algeria on 2 November 2022, significant differences between Sudan and Egypt emerged in the working of the final document, even though they had been intent on welding wider Arab support behind their conflict with Ethiopia. This paper explores the nature of, and the reasons behind, the differences between GCC countries and the broader Arab community regarding the Renaissance Dam issue. Furthermore, it examines the potential for developing a unified yet flexible Arab Gulf position which could help to lay the basis for a balanced and fair agreement between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt on the Renaissance Dam issue.

Waters of Contention: The GERD and Its Impact on Nile Basin Cooperation and Conflict

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River has become a focal point in the fields of water diplomacy, economics, and environmental considerations in the Nile Basin. Announced during the Arab Spring in 2011, the GERD aims to address Ethiopia’s significant energy shortfall and foster regional economic growth by potentially doubling the country’s electricity output. However, this ambition has heightened tensions with downstream countries, especially Egypt and Sudan, which rely heavily on the Nile for their water needs. This paper examines the ongoing conflict surrounding the GERD, focusing on the deadlock situation despite considerable scholarly attention to its economic, political, and environmental dimensions. The analysis presented in this paper reveals the roots of contention by analyzing past treaties and the present negotiation status, illustrating the complex interplay between development goals, environmental sustainability, and regional water security. The paper advocates for a revised legal framework that moves beyond past agreements towards a more inclusive, cooperative management strategy for the Nile’s waters. It proposes the development of a new treaty between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, grounded in their 2015 Declaration of Principles agreement and inspired by successful international dispute resolutions. It also discusses the potential of neutral third-party interventions to facilitate unbiased negotiations grounded in the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution, emphasizing the importance of equitable and sustainable water governance. In essence, this research calls for a collaborative approach to resolve the GERD conflict, emphasizing the need for agreements that harmonize developmental ambitions with the water security of the Nile Basin nations. .

Evolutionary analysis of nuclear wastewater collaborative governance based on prospect theory

Dealing nuclear wastewater into the sea significantly threatens the global ecological environment and public health. Existing research primarily focuses on the roles of emission and regulatory bodies, often overlooking the collaborative interactions between these entities. This study extends traditional marine governance strategies by considering upstream and downstream countries as research subjects. We first establish an evolutionary game model for the collaborative governance of nuclear wastewater between upstream and downstream countries, utilizing the Prospect theory and Evolutionary Game Theory. Subsequently, numerical simulations are employed to explore different entities' decision-making behaviors and influencing factors. Our findings indicate that: (1) initial willingness affects the time it takes for the system to reach a stable state; (2) the benefits and costs of proactive governance strategies influence decision-maker's behaviors; (3) subjective factors (risk preference, loss aversion) affect the strategic choices. This research provides a scientific basis for understanding different countries' selection of nuclear wastewater governance strategies.

Trade-driven model of “Hydropower for Rice” cooperation in the Lancang-Mekong River basin

There have been intense conflicts over water resources between upstream and downstream countries in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin (LMRB) over the past years, primarily due to the trade-off relationship between hydropower and rice production. Great potential for transboundary cooperation has been shown, such as China’s emergency water release in 2016 to alleviate downstream severe drought. However, there is still a lack of systematic cooperation pattern. To address this issue, the study proposes a trade-driven model of “Hydropower for Rice” cooperation, and then derives three key political factors including price weight, export rate, and terminal water level of reservoirs. Our results show that (1) The hydropower and rice production under the trade-driven model can approximate the centralized model, and the “Hydropower for Rice” cooperation is feasible. (2) For downstream countries, rice is the main product, and the rice production and economic benefit can be increased with a higher price weight or export rate. Compared to Thailand and Cambodia, Vietnam needs to engage in deeper trade with China. (3) For upstream China, hydropower is the main product, and the economic benefit of riparian countries can be increased with higher export rates. The discharge in the dry season is increased, which is driven by the trade of rice. Additionally, China’s initiative to reduce the terminal water level of reservoir Nuozhadu has the potential to further increase rice production in downstream countries. This study indicates that the transboundary cooperation in LMRB requires joint efforts of upstream and downstream countries.

Impact of renewable energy consumption on sustainable development in Central Asia

AbstractThe energy transition in Central Asia faces multiple risks while lacking empirical assessment of renewable energy use from a sustainability perspective. This paper examined the relationship of renewable energy consumption with energy intensity and carbon intensity in Central Asia during 1993—2019, using the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR). Weighing the heterogeneity of countries in the region, the results showed that downstream countries build an inverted U‐shaped relationship between renewable energy consumption and carbon intensity, while the whole region indicates an inverted U‐shaped relationship between renewable energy consumption and energy intensity. Compared with hydrocarbon, nonfossil energy is expected to serve as a greater driving force for economic growth in the future, alleviating socio‐economic dependence on fossil fuels in downstream countries and generating additional revenues to ensure energy security in upstream countries. The findings suggest policymakers to considerably mitigate the risks of decarbonization across the region.

Surface water and geomorphological changes of the Blue Nile dynamics associated with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD): a multi-temporal analysis

ABSTRACT The Blue Nile River is an indispensable source of livelihood for over 90 million people in Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt. Recently, Ethiopia has constructed the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), the largest in Africa, which could potentially alter the geomorphology of the river regime, and impact downstream countries. This study offers the first comprehensive analysis of the geomorphological alterations and water surface coverage changes of the Blue Nile River due to the construction and operation of the GERD. For this, we use multi-temporal Landsat 5 and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery spanning the period from 2009 to 2022, supplemented with Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) precipitation products to discern the potential influence of climate variability on the observed changes. The findings are examined using the Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) model, revealing significant fluctuations in the water surface coverage area across different sections of the river, particularly following the filling stages of the GERD. An analysis at every 10 km is performed to assess the extent of GERD’s influence on the Blue Nile, which indicates no notable alterations in surface area or geomorphology within the first 30 km of downstream river flow. The study also determines that changes from 2011 to 2018 are primarily associated with the upgrade activities of the Roseires Dam, while alterations along the Blue Nile from 2018 to 2019 are linked to climate variability. The observed changes between 2020 and 2022 can largely be attributed to the filling stages of the GERD. Notably, these changes are most pronounced in the water retaining areas upstream of the GERD dam. The results also show that Roseires Dam could play a crucial role as a buffer, mitigating potential impacts imposed by the GERD, and serving as a conduit between the GERD and downstream communities.

Is the Tibetan Plateau really a water tower?

AbstractThe Tibetan Plateau (TP) is widely known as the ‘Asian Water Tower’, due to its role in providing fresh water to downstream Asian countries. Based on the runoff data of large river basins on the TP, the weighted average proportion of the TP runoff is approximately 18% (ranging from 6% to 49%) for all the rivers. We argue that the name ‘Water Tower’ is an inappropriate and misleading perception of the TP, and such misperception would influence policy‐making processes and diplomatic activities. We therefore call for correcting the misunderstanding and an ensuring accurate understanding of the TP and its role in water supply for downstream countries. We propose using the term “Towering Asian Spring” instead of “Asian Water Tower” to better illustrate the role of the TP in water supply: while it serves as the source of several major rivers in Asia, its contribution to the overall water supply is relatively limited.

Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile River’s downstream reservoirs

The Nile River Basin’s (NRB’s) water resources are vulnerable to hydrologic alteration projects. Construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a hydroelectric power project on the Blue Nile, is expected to improve living standards in Ethiopia and contribute to the country's sustainable development. However, the effects of the GERD on water resources of downstream countries (Sudan and Egypt) have been a source of concern. In this study, eight types of remote sensing data and products were used to assess the impacts of the GERD reservoir’s filling process on Ethiopia’s, Sudan’s, and Egypt’s surface water resources. Specifically, spatiotemporal variability in surface area, volume, rainfall, and water storage for five reservoirs located in Ethiopia (GERD), Sudan (Roseires and Merowe), and Egypt (Lake Nasser and Toshka) for the period 2013–2022 were examined. Results indicate that (1) the GERD reservoir’s three filling phases started in July 2020, July 2021, and August 2022, respectively, (2) at the onset of these three phases, the GERD reservoir covered an area (volume) of 110 ± 7 km2 (1.87 ± 0.07 km3), 233 ± 31 km2 (4.30 ± 0.48 km3), and 544 ± 126 km2 (11.79 ± 2.18 km3), respectively, (3) a reduction in the GERD reservoir’s area (24–49 %) observed at the end of the first two fillings is attributed to enhanced infiltration and evaporation rates at the GERD site, (4) no significant changes were observed in the Roseires and Merowe reservoir’s surface areas, although both Nasser and Toshka reservoirs saw a slight increase in surface area during the investigated period, (5) the observed increase in water storage over the five reservoirs is attributed mainly to increased rainfall rates (6–10 %) and heavy flooding during the GERD filling period, and (6) if the GERD filling continues at the similar rates for an additional four years during drought periods, Egypt's Nile water allocation might be reduced by 35.47 ± 2.29 % (16.57 ± 1.07 km3), which could translate into an agricultural land loss of 33.14 ± 1.81 % each year. This study emphasizes the critical need for Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt to work together to effectively and equitably manage the water resources of the NRB.

Numerical assessment of the risk of GERD break on the downstream countries

The potential effects of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) failure on the downstream countries were numerically assessed. Flow discharge reaching Lake Nasser and the corresponding water levels were determined, and the inundated areas were defined as a result of GERD failure. High-resolution digital elevation model was developed with 2670-km length starting from GERD till Aswan High Dam. GERD’s reservoir, urban, and rural lands downstream of the GERD were presented using a numerical model. The modeled areas included parts of Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt, not to mention Toshka Spillway. The model areas were not divided into parts because of calculating the water levels at the existence of intermediate dams as model outputs. In case possible failure of GERD, Roseires and Sennar dams could collapse. Meanwhile, Merowe dam can sustain with the operation of its emergency spillway. Wave height reaches 100-m downstream of the GERD and 64-m and 31-m downstream of the Roseires and Merowe dams, respectively.

Conflicts and Treaty over the Nile Basin. A Critical Review

The Nile, which flows through ten river basin nations, is the most crucial water channel in Africa's north-western region. The river receives its water from two key rivers: the White Nile in Burundi and the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. The Atbara River, which commences in Sudan and runs north of Khartoum, connects the two rivers. The Nile River is the foundation of life and conflict. Conflicts between riparian countries that rely upon this common freshwater source have grown as a result of the river's deterioration and problems with water scarcity in the basin. The bilateral agreement that governs the allocation of water among the nations allocates the majority of the Nile river's flow to Egypt, which is the downstream country, and the remaining portion to Sudan, leaving the other nations that make up the Nile catchment deprived of determined shares. Although there is a chance for conflict amongst Nile riparians, current attempts to forge an all-encompassing regional agreement to control the river's use encourage riparians to work together rather than compete for water in the future. The Nile River would not have caused conflict amongst its riparian countries if it had been apportioned evenly. For millennia, the Nile's countries that border it have worked cooperatively to overcome problems throughout the basin in order to utilize the resource for the benefit of future generations. Various forms of international technological cooperation have been signed to halt conflicts and bring sustainable management to the Nile basin. This review addresses the conflicts and treaties in the Nile Basin between the Nile riparian countries. It also describes international collaboration, emphasizing the latest Nile Basin Initiative as an example of successful multilateral cooperation that could avert future conflicts over the Nile

An approach to complex transboundary water management in Central Asia: Evolutionary cooperation in transboundary basins under the water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus

Water-related issues in transboundary basins are generally complicated by the challenges of climate change, the historical evolution of the basin characteristics, and the different interests of the riparian countries. Therefore, dealing with water-sharing and water cooperation problems among basin countries needs to be based on multi-factor system analysis in the context of regional water, energy, food (land) resources, and ecosystems. In the present study, the Aral Sea basin in Central Asia, where transboundary water problems are extremely prominent and complex, was selected as the research area. Firstly, the characteristics of the water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus of the Aral Sea basin are analyzed. Then, based on the game theory, a multi-objective game model is constructed, and the multi-objective evolutionary game process and evolutionary stable strategies (ESSs) of both the upstream and downstream countries are explored. Finally, the evolutionary stable strategy under the intervention of the basin commission is simulated. The results show that there are obvious reciprocal feedbacks among water, land, energy, and ecosystem in the Aral Sea basin, and the uneven distribution of natural resources, fragile ecosystems, and conflicting demands of multiple actors lead to the unstable evolution of the nexus. Driven by the maximization of upstream and downstream countries’ respective interests, the optimal stabilization strategy of the system cannot be realized. Whereas, the introduction of the basin commission intervention and its restraint mechanism is conducive to promoting cooperation and maximizing the overall benefits of the basin. The incentives and penalties of the basin commission have significant effects on whether the system can reach Pareto optimality, and higher incentive coefficient and penalty coefficient help the system converge to the ideal state more quickly. The evolution of the water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus based on the perspective of the whole basin can provide theoretical support for dealing with the transboundary water conflicts, and the cooperation strategy aiming at maximizing the overall benefits of the basin can provide decision-making basis for promoting transboundary water cooperation and synergistic development of the water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus.

AGREEMENTS ON TRANSBOUNDARY WATER BODIES: STATE AND PROSPECTS OF DEVELOPMENT

The article deals with the regulation of transboundary water bodies on the basis of multilateral and bilateral agreements of the Republic of Kazakhstan with the countries of Central Asia, the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China. The main purpose of the study is to analyze the existing international agreements regulating the issues of joint use of transboundary water bodies and to develop proposals to address issues related to insufficient volume of incoming water. With the collapse of the Soviet Union and the destruction of the unified system of regulation of the water industry, surface waters ceased to be considered internal water bodies, and acquired a transboundary character requiring comprehensive international legal regulation. Particular attention to transboundary water bodies is due to the high dependence of Kazakhstan on neighboring countries forming more than 40 km3 out of 100 km3 of the total long-term flow of rivers and temporary watercourses. Of the existing 8 water management basins of the country, only the Nura-Sarysu basin does not have transboundary water bodies. A decrease in the volume of water can have a negative impact on industrial production, utilities and agriculture of the country. The adoption of preventive measures and the conclusion of transparent agreements with neighboring countries will avoid catastrophic consequences for the country's economy and human life. In this regard, the authorized state bodies represented by the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources, as well as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, need to actively use dialogue platforms within the framework of regional organizations and signed agreements to build the potential of relations between neighboring countries to address issues of equal water allocation. The comparative legal method was used as the main research method, which allowed analyzing the existing interstate agreements. The results of the study indicate a large amount of work done between neighboring countries, however, modern global challenges encourage countries to defend a tougher position that meets national interests, which in turn is not always beneficial for downstream countries.

Changes in the supply and demand potentials of China's glacier water resources in the 21st century: Spatiotemporal mismatches and combined effects

China's glacier water resources (GWRs) are not only indispensable suppliers of fresh water for humans living in large domestic areas but also affect the water supply to downstream neighbouring countries. Therefore, it is crucial to systematically evaluate the spatiotemporal (mis-) matches between the supply and demand potentials of China's GWRs and the combined supply and demand effects in the 21st century to enable regional sustainable development. To facilitate such research, in this study, we first regionalized the importance of China's GWRs in terms of the supply potential and downstream human dependence to reveal the spatial (mis-) matches between supply and demand potentials. Then, changes in the service potential of glacier meltwater and in population dynamics, as well as their temporal (mis-) matches and associated opportunities and risks, were further assessed at the river basin scale. The results showed that GWR plays an important role in 4 of 16 macroscale glacier-fed basins (i.e., Tarim, Junggar, Ili, and Zangxi) and 11 of 37 subbasins within the China region due to higher supply potential and demand potential in those basins. The importance of China's GWRs increases dramatically when taking the demand potential of downstream countries into account, especially in the Ganges and Indus river basins. The peaks in meltwater runoff from the most glacierized basins of the eastern Tianshan Mountains, eastern Qilian Mountains, and southeastern Tibetan Plateau of China occur slightly earlier than the projected peak population (around 2030) under the mid-range Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP245), leading to a compound risk in terms of decreasing meltwater supply and increasing human dependence at the end of the 2020s. However, the peak meltwater is expected to occur later than the peak population in the Tarim, Qiangtang Plateau, and Qaidam basins. The opportunities offered by the increase in meltwater can relieve the water resource pressure for those populations under water-stressed conditions. Greater attention should also be paid to water shortage risks in the transboundary river basins, especially in the Indus and Ganges basins, because the peak meltwater within China is generally expected to occur sooner than the projected peak population of downstream countries. This study provides an effective planning and decision-making basis for the full utilization of China's GWRs and adaptation when glacier runoff declines.

Urgent call for protection and use of transboundary watercourses. Some legal reflections

AbstractThe use of transboundary water resources has received special international attention in recent years. Although riparian countries recognize the benefits of cross‐border rivers and enter into agreements with countries sharing the transboundary rivers by means of legal rules, treaties, and principles, they have done excessive riverine exploitation activities to maximize their socio‐economic benefits, causing the imbalance in the ecosystems and peace. This study aims to conduct a secondary analysis of primary qualitative data to research the common legal frameworks on international water law such as Helsinki Rules, UN Watercourses Conventions, and UNECE Water Convention, together with a case study on the Mekong River Agreement. Bilateral, multilateral, international treaties and principles are currently not enforceable enough to compel riparian countries strictly to comply with these legal rules and principles on equitable and sustainable water coordination and development. Besides, there are still internal conflicts among the upper and lower riparian countries over the equitable and reasonable use of transboundary river watercourses due to lack of punitive sanctions. There is an urgent need to establish a specialized international water management commission designated by all nations with the utmost power to regulate human‐related activities concerning transboundary watercourses to govern equitable and sustainable management and development of the transboundary water use. Besides, current international law principles have to be revised to fill the gap of disagreement and potential conflicts between upstream, middle stream and downstream countries.

Water for Life Versus Water for Development

At ancient times, when the population on planet Earth was scarce, there was little friction over water resources. This has changed over the past few decades with the exponential growth of population with no corresponding increase of water revenue from nature. Compounding the problem is the construction of dams on almost every river in the world. Dams are used to regulate water flow, store water for use in dry seasons, eliminate or moderate flood hazards, generate hydropower, or control navigation. Dams may also have negative side effects. Dams constructed on international trans-boundary rivers can be extremely controversial. International conventions regulate the exploitation of the water of trans-boundary rivers. There have been violations to these conventions. These violations were done in the name of development. The results were disastrous for downstream riparian countries. In addition to the socio-economic effects, environmental, political, and massive migratory pressures have also been observed. At issue is the question of survival versus development, and which one should have higher priority. Examples will be given of development projects constructed by Ethiopia on the Nile River, which impacted Sudan and Egypt, and of development projects constructed by Turkey on the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, which impacted Iraq and Syria.

Assessment of Dams’ Failure and Flood Wave Hazards on the Downstream Countries: A Case Study of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)

Dams are built for different purposes, but failure of a dam could result in extreme disasters such as floods. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) was mainly built for power generation, but concerns about its safety, location and site conditions have led the downstream countries to investigate the GERD’s stability. This paper aims to investigate the impact of the failure of the dam on the downstream countries using the Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). Outflow hydrographs and flood inundation maps were provided through a hypothetical dam break scenario. An unsteady flow hydrodynamic routing with a 2D model was used to simulate the failure of the dam. A sensitivity analysis study of the output’s findings against breach parameters was also performed. The breach outflow discharge increases as the breach dimension increases. However, the peak discharge decreases with increasing breach formation time. Moreover, to prepare emergency action plans, it is important to predict the inundation depth, levels, arrival of flood waves, flood coverage area and water velocity. Furthermore, the results showed that Khartoum would turn into lakes within about 10 days and flood water depth would exceed 11 m at some locations in residential areas. Moreover, the flood waves overtopped the Roseires, Sennar and Merowe dams by 11, 7 and 20 m, respectively. In addition, the level of Lake Nasser would reach 188 m above sea level and the Aswan High Dam might be in great danger.

Vietnam’s Water Resources: Current Status, Challenges, and Security Perspective

The current status of the exploitation, use, and management of water resources in the context of socioeconomic development, climate change, and issues related to the region are causing negative impacts on the water resources of Vietnam. This study aimed to develop a framework for assessing Vietnam’s water security based on the following key aspects: (i) the availability of water resources; (ii) the current status of water exploitation and use; (iii) the current status of waste water and water pollution; (iv) water resource management organization; and (v) water-related disasters, including floods, droughts, subsidence, coastal erosion, landslides, ecological imbalance, and diseases related to water resources. In particular, the challenges of transboundary water resources and the food–energy–water nexus were investigated. We reviewed the assessment frameworks that have recently been developed outside Vietnam or regions with similar climates and analyzed the characteristics of downstream and rapid-growth countries such as Vietnam using a number of key water resource indicators, both qualitative and quantitative. From these processes, we developed an assessment framework and provided a perspective on water security. The results of this study showed that the challenge of transboundary water resources, the impact of climate change, the pressure on socioeconomic development, and the water–energy–food nexus are core issues that need to be addressed from the perspective of water security in Vietnam. This case study may be helpful for downstream and developing countries.

Flood propagation modeling: Case study the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance dam failure

Despite significant improvements in design methodologies, dams and water-retaining structures failures continue to occur. Dams’ failure analysis plays a crucial role in the development of dam safety planning and emergency action. Since the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has been built, there have been many concerns about its safety and its effects on downstream countries in case of its failure. In this paper, the GERD break was modeled by using the USACE Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). Two dimensions model under different failure scenarios was suggested. Moreover, outflow hydrographs and flood inundation maps were presented due to dam breach. Finally, it was concluded that, in case of catastrophic failure, flow depths may vary from 3 to 10 m in some residential areas, such as Khartoum. Furthermore, the water surface elevation may reach 184 m above msl (mean sea level) in Lake Nasser in case of dam failure with a fully stored GERD reservoir. Moreover, the maximum flow would reach 325,928 m3/sec which is more than 21.5 times the total capacity of the dam spillway. Finally, the paper’s outcomes may assist decision-makers in developing alternate plans to deal with the dangers of GERD break.

The reliability of the trade dependence network in the tungsten industry chain based on percolation

The unbalanced distribution of globe mineral resources can be addressed partly by the worldwide commerce in those resources. To identify significant international trade linkages and assess the reliability of the global tungsten trade, this paper suggests a modified point mutual information (PMI) and percolation approach. To build a directional network of trade dependence between countries (regions) of representative products at each stage of the tungsten industry chain, we calculate the relationships among trade dependence between countries using countries as nodes, trade dependence intensity as connected edges, and dependence intensity as the ability to cope with risk. The percolation process is replicated using various scenarios (risk disruptions) to filter the network's connected edges. The findings indicate that the downstream and overall networks of the tungsten industry chain are more robust to nonsystemic risks than the upstream and midstream trading networks. Furthermore, the countries with significant total imports and exports are near those with high critical link scores. Additionally, a few countries play an essential role in the tungsten industry chain. The critical countries are upstream tungsten-producing countries, including China, Canada, Russia, and Portugal. At the same time, the United States, Germany, and Japan, which rely on a certain level of in-depth processing technology, are critical downstream countries. Finally, increasing the maximum critical link is crucial for enhancing network reliability. Additionally, it is vital to concentrate on the policy directives of countries with high critical link scores because doing so will help the country create relevant policies and plans.