The reliability of the trade dependence network in the tungsten industry chain based on percolation

Abstract

The unbalanced distribution of globe mineral resources can be addressed partly by the worldwide commerce in those resources. To identify significant international trade linkages and assess the reliability of the global tungsten trade, this paper suggests a modified point mutual information (PMI) and percolation approach. To build a directional network of trade dependence between countries (regions) of representative products at each stage of the tungsten industry chain, we calculate the relationships among trade dependence between countries using countries as nodes, trade dependence intensity as connected edges, and dependence intensity as the ability to cope with risk. The percolation process is replicated using various scenarios (risk disruptions) to filter the network's connected edges. The findings indicate that the downstream and overall networks of the tungsten industry chain are more robust to nonsystemic risks than the upstream and midstream trading networks. Furthermore, the countries with significant total imports and exports are near those with high critical link scores. Additionally, a few countries play an essential role in the tungsten industry chain. The critical countries are upstream tungsten-producing countries, including China, Canada, Russia, and Portugal. At the same time, the United States, Germany, and Japan, which rely on a certain level of in-depth processing technology, are critical downstream countries. Finally, increasing the maximum critical link is crucial for enhancing network reliability. Additionally, it is vital to concentrate on the policy directives of countries with high critical link scores because doing so will help the country create relevant policies and plans.