Double-log Model Research Articles

DINAMIKA PERKEMBANGAN HARGA KOMODITAS CABAI MERAH (Capsicum annuum L) DI KABUPATEN JEMBER

Red chili prices in the market tend fluctuate over time. Development of red chilli in centers production included at Jember Regency continue to be made, but production still fluctuate and have not been able to meet market demand. Condition fluctuation production with uncertainty price needs to corrected immediately. Information of price and production need as solution to cope with fluctuation of red chili price. The research method used analytical descriptive method. Location chosen by purposive method at Jember Regency. The research used secondary time series data 2012 until 2016. Analytical tools used probability analysis and plot, trend analysis, and multiple linear regression analysis with double log model. The results showed that (1) production and prices red chili fluctuate every quarterly. The highest red chili price at farmers and consumers level occurred in the fourth quarter and the lowest in the second quarter. Red chili highest production in fourth quarter and lowest in first quarter. (2) Trend production and prices of red chili on 2017 until 2018 fluctuated and increased. (3) Factors that significantly affect of red chili supply are red chili production in previous month and harvested area.

DINAMIKA PERKEMBANGAN HARGA KOMODITAS CABAI MERAH (Capsicum annuum L) DI KABUPATEN JEMBER

Red chili prices in the market tend fluctuate over time. Development of red chilli in centers production included at Jember Regency continue to be made, but production still fluctuate and have not been able to meet market demand. Condition fluctuation production with uncertainty price needs to corrected immediately. Information of price and production need as solution to cope with fluctuation of red chili price. The research method used analytical descriptive method. Location chosen by purposive method at Jember Regency. The research used secondary time series data 2012 until 2016. Analytical tools used probability analysis and plot, trend analysis, and multiple linear regression analysis with double log model. The results showed that (1) production and prices red chili fluctuate every quarterly. The highest red chili price at farmers and consumers level occurred in the fourth quarter and the lowest in the second quarter. Red chili highest production in fourth quarter and lowest in first quarter. (2) Trend production and prices of red chili on 2017 until 2018 fluctuated and increased. (3) Factors that significantly affect of red chili supply are red chili production in previous month and harvested area.

Application of infrared spectroscopy and partial least-squares for modeling the correlation of bitumen dynamic shear rheological with temperature

ABSTRACTThis paper reported a method for determining the correlation of the physical properties and the chemical composition of bitumen. The double-log model of dynamic shear modulus with temperature was performed for linearization treatment to obtained the constants, which were served as the independent variables using in partial least-squares(PLS) regression. In addition, infrared spectra were processed by data pretreatment methods and served as dependent variables in PLS. The regression vector b of PLS made possible the observation of the spectral regions contributing in the modeling, which provided a basis for research of the correlation between physical properties and chemical composition of bitumen.

Domestic water buffaloes: Access to surface water, disease prevalence and associated economic losses

Given the shortage and non-availability of freshwater in Pakistan, wastewater is being used for bathing water buffaloes; however, this has a negative impact on animal welfare. Although there is a vast literature on indirect linkages between wastewater and animal productivity, studies focusing on the direct impacts of water buffaloes bathing in wastewater on animal productivity and economic losses are rare. Therefore, using 360 domestic water buffalo farms, this study examines the expenditure and production losses associated with bathing (in wastewater and freshwater) and non-bathing water buffaloes by employing partial budgeting and resource adjustment component techniques. Furthermore, it investigates the prevalence of animal diseases and associated economic effects using correlation analysis and propensity score matching techniques, respectively. The findings reveal that compared to their counterparts (freshwater bathing and non-bathing water buffaloes), buffaloes bathing in wastewater are at increased risk of clinical mastitis, foot and mouth disease (FMD) and tick infestation. Moreover, the use of wastewater for bathing buffaloes also leads to higher economic and production losses by affecting milk productivity, causing premature culling, and reducing slaughter value. The findings of the double-log model show that economic losses are higher if buffaloes bathe in wastewater within 30 min after milking, as there are more chances that those buffaloes would be exposed to bacterial penetration in the teat ducts, which may result in intramammary infection. According to the propensity score matching method, the higher economic damages per month are associated with buffaloes bathing in wastewater and freshwater, 155 and 110 USD per farm, respectively. The study findings reference the need for policies to restrict wastewater access by water buffaloes, and a regular check of and access to cool clean water wallows for bathing during hot summer days, to reduce excess heat and economic losses, and thus improve animal welfare.

The Factors Affecting Tourist Visits at Owabong Waterpark in Bojongsari Sub-district of Purbalingga

This research aimed to determine the effect of income, travel cost, distance and visitor age on the number of tourist visit to Owabong Waterpark. This research is a survey research to visitors of Owabong Waterpark using accidental sampling method. Qualitative and quantitative data was derived questionnaire based interview technique. This research used multiple linear regression analysis with double log model. The result indicated that income had a positive effect on tourist visits at Owabong Waterpark. Travel cost and distance have insignificant effect on tourist visits at Owabong Waterpark. Age had insignificant effect on tourist visits at Owabong Waterpark. The implication of this research for the management of Owabong Waterpark is to continously improve the existing facilities and infrastructures to maintain the quality of tourist attraction, always innovate various vehicles attracting the visitors, conduct promotions such as discounted ticket to reach all income groups, conduct more vigorous promotions, especially in social media to be better known by the community outside Purbalingga so that Owabong Waterpark is not only visited by local tourists, but also foreign tourists.Keywords: Income, Travel Cost, Distance, Age, Social Media.

PRODUCTION AND EXPORT FOR DATES IN ARAB COUNTRIES

the objective of this research is to study the production and consumption position and foreign trade for dates in the Arab countries during the period (2000- 2012). The results indicate: (1) The Arab production capacity for dates represents about 74 percent of international production capacity for dates that reach about 6963.5 thousand tons. (2) Increasing Arab production capacity for dates at annual rate estimated by 1.08 percent of annual average for Arab production capacity. (3) The Increase in total Arab exports for dates represents about 61.04 percent of gross international exports for dates that estimate by 632.2 thousand tons. (4) The results of the estimated multiple liner regression model indicate that international export quantity and Arab export price for dates are the effective variables on Arab export quantity for dates, while price rate between average Arab export price and average export price for competitive countries (Iran and Pakistan) are the effective variables on Arab export quantity in double log model. (5) The results of efficiency in dictators for Arab export of dates show thea) The rear a surplus in trade balance for Arab dates during the period (2000- 2012) ranged between 321.1- 90.5 million $. (b) Increasing the cover percentage of exports to imports value for Arab dates through the studied period that ranged between 192.1%- 417.2%. (c) Instability coefficient for date's exports for Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Oman, Saudi Arabian, and Tunisia estimated by ٤.88%, 26.7%,21.01%, 10.6%, 12.9% and 12.04% respectively.

Modeling Per Capita Demand of Wood Products in Greece: Variables with Impact to Demand and Forest Management Implications

The current study presents the trends of wood product trade in Greece during the last several decades. Greece, like many Mediterranean countries, is a net importer of wood and wood products and has established a consecutive dependency on imports during the past few decades. Variables like income and import prices are tested in order to highlight their meaningfulness on the demand for wood and wood products. Analysis based on multiple linear double log models showed that import prices were found to be the most important variable for wood panels and paper demand. Simultaneously, income was found to be the most important for wood fuel demand, as was expected. Income and import prices were found to be elastic regarding the demand for wood panels and paper. More, income was found to be inelastic to wood fuel demand. Further analysis of the above factors suggests a new forest policy plan based on the development of the current forest ecosystems and the creation of new forests through afforestation and reforestation, using native species in order to constrain the amount of expensive imports. From this perspective, a new forest policy based on sustainable forest management could lead to the increase of production and new investments in the national forest sector.

The Impact of Earthquake/Tsunami Threat on Land Prices in Padang, West Sumatera, Indonesia

Objective - In this study, the impact of earthquake/tsunami threat on land prices is measured using the Hedonic Price Method (HPM). The location of the research is in Padang, West Sumatra. The subject of study is land owners who purchased their land later than September 30, 2009. Methodology/Technique - The linear model and Double-log model with Ordinary Least Square (OLS) are used to estimate variable. Findings - The findings reveal that the Linear model have five variables with a significant effect. Those variables are: (1) Environmental quality, (2) Distance to the seafront, (3) Distance to educational facilities, (4) Availability of clean water and (5) Position of the land, whereas the double-log model also have 5 variables: (1) Distance to the seafront, (2) Distance to educational facilities, (3) Access to evacuation routes, (4) Availability of clean water and (5) Position of the land. Novelty - The possibility of earthquake and tsunami threat in the future has raised a new parameter associated with the environment in the city of Padang, namely land distance towards the seafront. The findings of the study contribute the understanding in land pricing. Type of Paper: Empirical Keywords: Earthquake/Tsunami; Environmental Quality; Land Prices; Padang. JEL Classification: Q24, Q54.

Empirical estimation of per capita brandy demand in Armenia

Abstract The empirical estimations were based on linear and double-log regression models, which identified the factors influencing the average per capita brandy demand in Armenia. The model was estimated using quarterly time-series data on per capita brandy consumption, disposable income, prices of various alcoholic beverages for 1997–2015 periods. This is quantitative study based on secondary annual, quarterly and monthly data, and 5% significance level. The average annual per capita brandy consumption data for 1997–2007 periods was obtained from WHO's website, whereas the 2008–2015 data was extracted from the National Statistical Service of the Republic of Armenia. For annual, quarterly and monthly periods from 1997 through 2015, the price data related to various alcoholic beverages, consumer price index were provided in NSS statistical publications of “Socio-Economic Situation of RA”, ”Consumer price indexes (prices) in the Republic of Armenia”, “Prices and tariffs in the Republic of Armenia”. For 1997–2015 periods, the average monthly per capita monetary income data was obtained from “Living Standards of Population and Social Sphere” section of statistical yearbooks. The latter substituted the average per capita monthly disposable income data, since these data were unavailable. Meantime, since the data included numerous years, therefore, the nominal price and income data were adjusted for inflation using consumer price index with 2005 as base year. In conclusion, the average real prices of wine and vodka were statistically significant determinants of the average per capita brandy demand in Armenia, and the demand for brandy was inelastic.

The Factors Affecting the Household Energy Consumption, Energy Elasticity, and Energy Intensity in Indonesia

The purpose of the study is to explore and analyze the factors influencing the consumption, elasticity , and intensity of household energy sector in Indonesia. The estimated variables in this research based on energy and economic indicators in the period of 2000 - 2013. To get the better result, the estimation used a model of a logarithm natural in forms of doublelog and linearlog. The estimation of household energy consumption used doublelog model and the estimation of intensity of final energy per capita used linearlog model . The results based on the simple regression analysis show that variables individually : gross domestic product , the number of population, the number of households , and the final energy consumption per capita has positive and significant effect (α = 1 % ) on the energy consumption of households. The number of population and the number of household are the most dominant variables affect the energy consumption of households. It means the more the number of population and households the higher energy consumption of households. Then individually, variables of gross domestic product , the number of population, the number of households, the final energy consumption per capita has positive and significant effect ( α = 1 % ) on the intensity of final energy per capita . The intensity of final energy per capita in the period of 2000 - 2013 continues to rise, which implies that the price or the cost of energy conversion to gross domestic product to be higher and inefficient . During the period of 2000-2013 the value of elasticity of household energy consumption is less than one (e < 1). It means that household sector has been making use of energy with more efficient .Then during the period of 2000 - 2013 the value of intensity of households energy tends to decrease, it shows that the use of energy households to be more efficient .

Factors Affecting Food Price Inflation in Pakistan

Food Price inflation an economic challenge in global world. The objective of the study is to examine the demand pull and cost push variables that affect food prices inflation. We use time series annual data from 1980-2013. Data is generated from various issues economic survey of Pakistan and world development indicators. We applied ADF test, Johansen’s co-integration technique, and VECM to analyze the long term and short run relationship between the variables. The result obtained from double log model explores that most significant demand pull and cost push variables are fertilizer prices, fuel prices, money supply, per capita GDP, and foreign aid which are positively related with food prices while exchange rate is inversely related with food prices in Pakistan. The error correction model is also statistically significant and shows that market forces play an active role in restoring long-run equilibrium.

An empirical examination of the distributional impacts of water pricing reforms

Water pricing reforms may promote conservation and economic efficiency. However, it is possible for water pricing reforms to be regressive. We estimate Stone-Geary and double-log residential water demand functions using data from the Capital Region District of British Columbia, Canada. Two price reforms are simulated: an across-the-board price increase and an increasing block rate structure. The distributional impacts depend on the specification of water demands. For the across-the-board price increase, the double-log model shows no change in the distribution of water expenditures while the Stone-Geary specification indicates a worsening of the inequality of water expenditures.

Sources of Growth and Instability in Agricultural Production in Western Odisha, India

This paper analyzes the nature and sources of agricultural instability in the Bolangir district of Western Odisha, India. The nature of instability in agricultural production is examined by determining the agricultural instability index (AII) of variables such as area, production and yield of food grains and paddy, irrigation coverage, and annual rainfall. The period covered by the study (1984–2009), which is characterized by greater technology dissemination, is categorized into two sub- periods: (1984–1993) and (1994–2009). The effects of a change in major inputs on the variability of crop productivity are assessed using a double-log model. The yield decomposition analysis is used to examine the role of drought risk factors and the amount and productivity of inputs in crop yield growth. The extent of instability in agricultural production and productivity in the region is found to be quite high on account of the high level of rainfall variability and the low irrigation coverage. The level of instability in food grain production is much larger during the second sub-period. The decomposition analysis reveals that about 84.4 percent of the total change in paddy yield growth is due to drought risk factors such as rainfall failure, rainfall variability, high temperature, and drought-induced pest attack, while the remaining change in paddy yield is due to the change in amount and productivity of major agricultural inputs such as labor, fertilizer, pesticides, and irrigation.

Economic Analysis of Maize-Cowpea Intercrops in Akko Local Government Area, Gombe State, Nigeria

The study was conducted in Akko Local Government Area, Gombe state, Nigeria to examine the cost and return analysis of maize-cowpea intercrop enterprise. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire administered to 50 respondents on their socio economic characteristics, inputs and output, cost incurred and the revenue realized for the 2013 production season using random sampling techniques. Descriptive statistics, gross margin analysis and regression analysis were the analytical tools used in analyzing the data. The result showed that majority of the sampled farmers (74.6%) was within the age bracket of 31-50 years with (88.9%) that had one form of education or the other. Fertilizer constituted the bulk (47.6%) of the total cost of production. The gross margin, net farm income and return per naira invested were found to be Naira 21245, Naira 20608, N0. 93 per hectare respectively. Double-log model was chosen as the lead equation, the result further indicated that age, seeds and fertilizer are positively significant at p&gt;_ 0.05 with R2 of 55.4% while educational level hired labor and insecticides gave a negative elasticity of their respective coefficients. Insufficient credit facilities, high cost of inputs pest and diseases and use of manual operation are the major constraints in the study area. Therefore it is recommended that credit delivery from lending agencies, inputs early and resistant varieties and labor saving techniques should be made readily available and affordable to farmers to improve their production with the generation of optimum profit. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/jbayr.v2i1.20537 Journal of the Bangladesh Association of Young Researchers (JBAYR): Vol.2(1), 2012 &amp; 2013: 9-20

Identifying determinants of urban water use using data mining approach

This study develops a new approach to quantitatively identify the most important determinants of urban water use. The approach is based on a data mining model called genetic programming (GP), which automatically optimizes the structure of the function and parameters simultaneously. With historical urban water use as the target, the GP model identifies the most relevant factors for 47 cities in northern China. Compared with conventional regressive models, the GP model performs better than the double-log model. The Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE) of the GP model is 0.87, while the NSE of the double-log model is 0.79. According to the results of the case study, urban water use is determined by both socio-economic and natural variables. Total population, service industry indicators, green land area, housing area, water price, and rainfall are the most significant determinants of urban water use. Among them, total population, service industry indicators, and green land area clearly have positive contributions to urban water use, whereas rainfall has a negative impact on urban water use. The impacts of housing area and water price are complex, which implies that these determinants may have different impacts on urban water use in different conditions. The new model and new insights developed in this study could be helpful for urban water management, especially for cities that experience water scarcity.

Globalisation and Patents: A Study of Patents filed by India

This paper studies the impact of globalisation on Indian patents. An attempt is made to analyse the impact of globalisation on patent filings by Indian citizens from 1993 to 2011. Using semi-log and double-log regression models, we study the impact of FDI, GDP and R&amp;D expenditure on patent filings by Indians. Our results show that real GDP per capita is a significant determinant of FDI; an increase in GDP per capita by 1% leads to an increase in patents filed by 0.72%. FDI is not a significant determinant of patents filed, implying that the notion that globalisation leads to increase in patent filing does not hold good in the Indian case.

Rheology of bitumen: Effects of temperature, pressure, CO2 concentration and shear rate

The effects of temperature, pressure, dissolved carbon dioxide and shear rate on the rheological response of bitumen are investigated by using the reduced variable method at the temperature range of −10°C to 180°C and pressures up to 15MPa. A state of the art pressure cell set-up was utilized with a stress/strain controlled rheometer (Anton–Paar, MCR-501) to collect the experimental data on the Athabasca bitumen–CO2 mixture. The double-log model is found to be the most accurate equation in describing the effect of temperature on the viscosity of bitumen over a wide range of temperature while the Barus model with the temperature-dependent parameter is found to be the most appropriate correlation to represent the effect of pressure. Excluding the effect of overhead pressure, the Fujita–Kishimato equation, resulting from the free volume concept modelling, is employed to account for the effect of dissolved CO2 on the viscosity of the bitumen–CO2 mixture more precisely. Moreover, a psuedoplastic model with a zero-shear viscosity is more rational to consider the effect of shear rate on the flow properties of the bituminous mixtures. The experimental conditions are carefully considered to avoid introducing flow instabilities into the mixture. It is demonstrated that the rheological properties of bitumen are more sensitive to the variables at lower temperatures.

How Do Weather Conditions Influence Leisure Traffic? Evidence from Michigan and Implications for Climate Change

Understanding of the nature of the relationship between weather conditions and participation in outdoor recreation and tourism remains relatively limited, despite the need to better comprehend these dynamics in order to prepare for the implications of projected increases in climate variability and climate change. This study addressed this gap through quantification of the relationships between daily weather conditions and leisure traffic activity throughout the US state of Michigan. Using a double-log model, daily leisure traffic counts were regressed against three sets of independent variables—weather conditions, economic conditions, and the availability of leisure time—across the four seasons. Daily maximum temperature had a statistically significant, positive effect on tourism traffic in spring, summer, and fall, with a slightly less pronounced impact in winter. Precipitation, in contrast, had a minimal impact on leisure traffic in spring, summer, and fall, but a negative impact in winter. These findings have implications not only for the current management and marketing of Michigan outdoor recreation and tourism providers, but also for the potential adaptation strategies they might consider adopting under conditions of climate change. In order to best capitalize on the opportunities presented by the changing climate, providers are advised to consider factors such as changing season length and diversification into additional, year-round activities and facilities. For winter sports providers, the ability to make snow will become increasingly critical.

EFEK INSTABILITAS NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TERHADAP PENAWARAN EKSPOR KOPI INDONESIA DAN HARGA KOPI DOMESTIK

This research is to examine the volatility of rupiah exhange rate and investigate influenced factors to export supply and domestic price of Indonesian Coffee. Double log model of export supply as proposed by Cerra dan Saxena (2003) and of domestic price are used in this study. Using three monthly data of 1990:1 to 2005:4, the result shows that export supply of Indonesian coffee is significantly and positively inflenced by International coffee price and previous export, and negatively influenced by exchange rate instability while domestic price is not. Domestic price is influenced positively by international coffee price, is not by exchange rate instability.Keywords: Exchange Rate Instability, export supply, domestic price, Coffee.

Consumer-Centered eHealth: Challenges and Opportunities for China

Information and communications technology (ICT) has great potential for helping China achieve a greater level of 'consumer-centered' health services. The objectives of the research were to: (i) explore the availability of ICT infrastructure for health in China; and (ii) develop an approach for Consumer-centered eHealth (CeH) Technology adoption to solve those problems. The approach to evaluating the ICT infrastructure in China involved examining variables of school enrolment, per capita income and governance variables on the number of PCs, fixed telephones, mobile phone subscribers and Internet users. These were evaluated using a double-log regression model and cross-sectional data on various provinces in China. The analysis was based on 31 of the 34 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities that comprise Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. There were a number of main findings: (i) medical literacy and the number of Internet users had a statistically significant positive relationship with the number of PCs in each province; (ii) the combined school enrolment rate and per capita income had a statistically significant direct relationship with the number of fixed telephones and mobile phone subscribers; (iii) the combined school enrolment ratio and the number of fixed telephones had a statistically significant positive relationship with Internet usage; (iv) there were major inequalities in ICT connectivity between upper-middle, lower-middle and low income provinces in China; and (v) the information quality had statistically significant positive effect on all determinants. In order to improve access to health care, especially for remote rural areas and for the elderly in China, there is need to boost the availability and utilization of eHealth services. Each province will need to develop a road map in a strategic CeH plan that will, over time, enable its citizens to realize that vision.