Dominant Circulation Patterns Research Articles

Contributions of Stationary and Transient Water Vapor Transports to the Extreme Precipitation Changes Over the Tibetan Plateau

AbstractThe Tibetan Plateau (TP) has experienced “south drying‐north wetting” extreme precipitation changes over the past half century. The effects of water vapor transport at different timescales on TP extreme precipitation changes remain unexplored. Here, we utilize the reanalysis data sets to quantify the contributions of stationary and transient processes of water vapor transport to the long‐term changes in the extreme precipitation (R95p) during wet season (Jun‐Jul‐Aug‐Sep) over the TP and surrounding regions. We find that the daily scale transient processes dominate the dipole trend of extreme precipitation with a contribution of 55.1% in the northern and 79.5% in the southern TP, respectively, whereas the contribution of monthly scale stationary processes is of 19.0% and 20.5%. The long‐term changes in extreme precipitation are dominated by the transient dynamic component. We identified the synoptic circulation patterns affecting the changes of R95p over the northern and southern TP by using k‐means clustering. The patterns featured with a 500 hPa trough, 200 hPa wind divergence and low transient geopotential height are identified. The frequency of the dominant circulation patterns increases in the northern TP and decreases in the southern TP, which leads to the dipolar changes of extreme precipitation over the TP and surrounding regions.

Obvious difference of dominant circulation patterns between dry‐type and humid‐type heatwaves in North China

AbstractBased on the observed maximum temperature (Tmax), relative humidity (RH) and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data during 1981–2021, basic temporal features and dominant atmospheric circulation patterns of dry‐type and humid‐type heatwaves in North China are investigated and compared. Statistical results indicate the dry heatwaves occur mainly in early summer (from early June to early July), that is, before the rainy season of North China, while the humid heatwaves have a high frequency in mid‐July to mid‐August. During the research period, the increasing trend of dry heatwaves is 0.67 days·decade−1, while the humid heatwaves increase at a greatly higher rate of 1.85 days·decade−1. For the dry heatwave, a high ridge in the subtropical westerlies plays the main role, and the northerly wind in the east of the ridge reduces the air moisture convergence over the region. However, for the humid heatwave, the westward and northward propagations of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) may make the major contribution, and the southerly wind anomalies in the west of the WPSH enlarge the water vapour to the region. The adiabatic heating in subsiding air at all levels and horizontal temperature advection at lower troposphere are stronger for dry heatwaves than for humid heatwaves, which cause a higher Tmax for the former type. These results highlight the diversity of the heatwaves in North China, which suggests that multiple local and large‐scale subseasonal circulations should be considered to improve the subseasonal to seasonal forecast skills for heat extremes.

Sea surface circulation in the Baltic Sea: decomposed components and pattern recognition

By decomposing the total sea surface current into its geostrophic and ageostrophic components, we examined the contribution of each to the long-term variability of the total sea surface current. Our findings demonstrate the importance of geostrophic currents in Baltic Sea gyre formations. Additionally, ageostrophic currents contribute significantly to the flow across the region. Quantifying the difference between total sea surface current fields has revealed two dominant general sea surface circulation patterns in the Baltic Sea, whose characteristics correspond to the monthly mean climatology of sea surface current fields in May and December. Subsequently, a machine learning technique was employed to effectively detect the types of sea surface circulation patterns using wind vectors and sea level anomaly fields. This underscored the combined influence of sea level anomaly-driven and wind-driven components in shaping surface current vectors in the Baltic Sea, consistent with geostrophic and ageostrophic decompositions.

Evapotranspiration in the Amazon Basin: Couplings, hydrological memory and water feedback

The hydrological cycle of the Amazon Basin is characterized by a multitude of interactions between the atmosphere and surface processes, involving several temporal and spatial scales. Evapotranspiration is a key variable in the water and energy balance, particularly in this watershed that is home to the world largest rainforest. This study analyzed evapotranspiration in the Amazon Basin using the concepts of Coupling (one way relationship between two variables), Memory (temporal permanence of a state or anomaly in the behavior of one variable) and Feedback (two way relationships between two variables), during a 62-year period (12/1959–11/2021). This study found that the seasonality of precipitation, mainly due to the South American Monsoon, determines when evapotranspiration is mainly driven by (or coupled with) net radiation at the surface or soil moisture. Moreover, in the regions where seasonality of precipitation is strong, the previous hydroclimatic conditions due to hydrological memory (reaching just over 90 days in shallow soils) influences the evapotranspiration during the relatively dry season. Regarding water feedback, this study found that the dependence of seasonal precipitation of the Amazon Basin from their hydrobiological processes (fraction of precipitation recycled by Amazonian evapotranspiration) increases with the distance from the Atlantic Ocean, mainly during the non-monsoonal circulation. This process is particularly remarkable in the Amazon-Andes transition zone. However, the spatial pattern and height of water recycled in this watershed is mainly determined by the dominant circulation pattern of atmospheric fluxes in each season.

A density surface model describing the habitat of the Critically Endangered Rice’s whale Balaenoptera ricei in the Gulf of Mexico

The newly recognized Rice’s whale Balaenoptera ricei is among the most endangered large whale species in the world and primarily occupies a region near the continental shelf break in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico (GoMex). We analyzed visual line-transect survey data collected throughout the northern GoMex from 2003-2019 and developed spatially explicit density maps using a density surface modeling approach to examine relationships between Rice’s whale density and bathymetric and oceanographic features. We identified water depth, surface chl a concentration, bottom temperature, and bottom salinity as key parameters that define the Rice’s whale habitat. This is consistent with upwelling of cold, high-salinity water along the continental shelf break and seasonal input of high-productivity surface water originating from coastal sources. The dominant circulation patterns in the GoMex, including the presence of Loop Current eddies, lead to increased productivity and likely play a role in maintaining high densities of forage species needed to support Rice’s whales. Extrapolation of the model suggests additional regions in Mexican waters of GoMex that may be suitable for Rice’s whales. This study informs the designation of critical habitat as defined by the US Endangered Species Act and will assist in marine spatial planning activities to avoid additional anthropogenic impacts to Rice’s whales associated with the development of wind energy and aquaculture.

Nighttime ozone excess days and the associated meteorological conditions in the North China Plain from 2015 to 2022

We examined the spatial and temporal variations of nighttime ozone (O3) excess days (NOEDs) in the North China Plain (NCP) during 2015–2022 by using the observed O3 concentrations from the China National Environmental Monitoring Center network. The NOEDs were defined as those with any 1-h average O3 concentration at night (20:00 to 06:00 local time) exceeding 200 μg m−3. The observations showed that the annual frequencies of NOEDs averaged over the 57 cities in the NCP were 1.56, 1.72, 6.23, 6.53, 8.84, 5.93, 5.07, and 6.86 days in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022, respectively, with a linear increasing trend of 0.66 d y−1. Using the K-means clustering method, two typical regional NOEDs types in the NCP were identified. Type1 had the highest frequencies of NOEDs in the southwest of NCP, while Type2 had the highest frequencies in the central NCP region. These two types contributed to 53.5% and 46.5% of the regional NOEDs in NCP, respectively. Compared with the regional non-NOEDs (with nighttime O3 did not exceed but daytime O3 exceeded O3 air quality standard), both Type1 and Type2 NOEDs generally had higher temperature, lower relative humidity, and higher planetary boundary height in both afternoon and night, favoring the production and accumulation of O3 in the afternoon as well as the persistent high O3 at night. Corresponding weather patterns were also identified. These results have important implications for emission control strategies during NOEDs. Emission control measures can be applied once the dominant circulation patterns have been predicted.

Dominant circulation pattern and moving path of the Mongolian Cyclone for the severe sand and dust storm in China

Severe sand and dust storm (SDS) is one of the major meteorological disasters in northern China. During 2000–2023, a total of 37 severe SDS events were monitored by the China Meteorological Administration and 34 of them occurred in the boreal spring (March to May). In this study, the 34 cases are analyzed to reveal their spatio-temporal features. The results indicate that there are two high-frequency centers. One is located in the Tarim Basin in northwestern China and the other is located in the central-western part of Inner Mongolia in northern China. In the 21st century, the duration of the severe SDS shows a clear interannual variation with an average of 3.5 days in 2000–2006, 2.7 days in 2007–2015 and 4.6 days in 2016–2023, respectively. Moreover, it occurs mainly in early spring in the third period, whereas it can occur throughout spring in the first and second periods. The composition of the general circulations for these 34 cases indicates that the simultaneous dominant pattern is a “positive-negative-positive” wave structure in the mid-high latitudes of Asia, with a cyclonic circulation (a deep trough) over the southern part of Russia to Mongolia, a major anticyclonic circulation (a ridge) over the eastern Europe to the west of Central Asia and a secondary anticyclonic center over northeastern China to the Korea Peninsula and Japan. The “positive-negative-positive” pattern enhanced the Mongolian Cyclone by increasing the zonal pressure gradients to both its west and east sides. Both the composition and typical case studies indicate that the eastward movement of the Mongolian Cyclone plays a dominant role in causing the severe SDS.

Extratropical circulation associated with Mediterranean droughts during the Last Millennium in CMIP5 simulations

Abstract. The Mediterranean region is expected to experience significant changes in hydroclimate, reflected in increases in the duration and severity of soil moisture droughts. While numerous studies have explored Mediterranean droughts in coupled climate models under present and future scenarios, understanding droughts in past-climate simulations remains relatively underexplored. Such simulations can offer insights into long-term drought variability that observational records cannot capture. Therefore, our study investigates circulation patterns in the Euro-Atlantic domain associated with multi-year soil moisture droughts over the Mediterranean region during the last millennium (850–2005 CE) in climate simulations. For this, we use the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project–Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP5–PMIP3) and the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble Project. Primarily, we examine the differences among the models in representing drought variability and related circulation patterns. For the analysis, we exclude the anthropogenic trends from 1850–2005 CE, and to detect the circulation patterns, we perform k-means clustering combined with linear correlation analyses. The findings confirm that Mediterranean drought occurrence during the last millennium is associated with internal variability in the climate system. Drought variability, the associated circulation patterns, and the frequencies of these patterns vary across the models. Some climate models exhibit a multidecadal anti-phase occurrence of some drought periods between the western and eastern Mediterranean regions, although the exact periods of coherence differ among the models. This anti-phase co-variability, which agrees with some proxy records, can be explained by the dominant circulation patterns in each region detected by the models: western Mediterranean droughts are dominated by a high-pressure system over central Europe and a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like pattern, while eastern Mediterranean droughts are linked to positive pressure anomalies in the southern and eastern Mediterranean and negative NAO, East Atlantic, and East Atlantic–western Russia-like patterns. The frequencies of these modes of climate variability are strongly model-dependent; i.e., some patterns occur more frequently or only in some models, suggesting that the main drivers of droughts differ among the models. Although it is complicated to evaluate the representation of droughts and associated circulation among the models, in general, the models with lower horizontal and vertical spatial land resolutions exhibit drought variability and patterns that distinctly differ from other models. These model differences and preferences toward some circulation patterns can be a source of uncertainties in the model–proxy comparison of Mediterranean droughts and potentially influence future climate projections.

Quantifying the dynamic and synergistic effects of low and mid-latitudes signals on regional extreme climate events

Unlike previous studies solely focused on the influences of low or mid-latitudes signals on regional extreme events, this paper used the three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation (3P-DGAC), taking the 2018 hot summer in East Asia for example, to quantitatively reveal the dynamic and synergistic effects of low and mid-latitudes signals on regional extreme events. By analyzing the anomalous three-dimensional structure of atmospheric circulations in 2018 hot summer, we discovered that the local meridional circulation at low latitudes and zonal circulation at mid-latitudes both produced abnormal downdrafts in East Asia, which were consistent with the anomalous anticyclone in this region. Then, we investigated the relative vorticity advection combined with 3P-DGAC to uncover the dominant circulation patterns, and found the horizontal circulation at mid-latitudes and local meridional circulation at low latitudes were the major contributor to the anomalous anticyclone, accounting for 56% and 44% respectively. This result indicated the 2018 hot summer might be influenced by the synergistic effect of low and mid-latitudes signals. Finally, by investigating sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and mid-latitudes wave train, we considered the tripole-like SSTA pattern in the North Atlantic and positive SSTA in Kuroshio and its extension area (K-KE) as the main causes of horizontal circulation anomalies, and the anomalous meridional circulation was related to the extremely late onset of South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM). This study provided a novel way to quantitatively study synergistic effects of low and mid-latitudes signals on regional extreme events.

Direct detection of atomic oxygen on the dayside and nightside of Venus

Atomic oxygen is a key species in the mesosphere and thermosphere of Venus. It peaks in the transition region between the two dominant atmospheric circulation patterns, the retrograde super-rotating zonal flow below 70 km and the subsolar to antisolar flow above 120 km altitude. However, past and current detection methods are indirect and based on measurements of other molecules in combination with photochemical models. Here, we show direct detection of atomic oxygen on the dayside as well as on the nightside of Venus by measuring its ground-state transition at 4.74 THz (63.2 µm). The atomic oxygen is concentrated at altitudes around 100 km with a maximum column density on the dayside where it is generated by photolysis of carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide. This method enables detailed investigations of the Venusian atmosphere in the region between the two atmospheric circulation patterns in support of future space missions to Venus.

Prevalent atmospheric and oceanic signals of the unprecedented heatwaves over the Yangtze River Valley in July–August 2022

Unprecedented heatwaves attacked the Yangtze River valley (YRV) in July–August of 2022. The heatwave-favorable circulation pattern for the YRV is identified by using a self-organizing map. Result shows that the dominant daily circulation pattern driving heatwaves in the YRV is the East Asian anticyclonic pattern (EAAP), characterized by an anomalous deep anticyclone over the East Asian mid-latitudes. Remarkably, the unprecedented frequent occurrence of EAAP in 2022 contributes about 84.6% of the temperature anomalies in the 35 YRV hot days, which is the key dynamical factor for the heatwave in 2022. Physical mechanisms for the occurrence of EAAP are revealed on interannual and interdecadal time scales. On interannual time scale, the dipole sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the North Atlantic, characterized by warm and cold SST anomalies in the midlatitudes and subtropics, respectively, exert an important influence on the EAAP days. This dipole SST pattern is unprecedentedly strong in 2022. It facilitates the EAAP through the maintenance of the coupled British–Okhotsk Corridor pattern and the Silk Road pattern in the mid-latitudes. Additionally, the persistent cold SST anomalies in tropical Indian ocean and the central-eastern Pacific from the preceding spring to summer contribute to cooling of the tropical troposphere and induce easterly anomalies in the East Asian subtropics, thereby further promoting the occurrence of EAAP. On interdecadal time scale, the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation may establish favorable circulation conditions for the occurrence of the EAAP through modulating the interdecadal Silk Road pattern. These findings improve our understanding of the physical mechanisms for driving extreme heatwaves in the YRV and have an implication for enhancing regional heatwave prediction.

Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation of PM2.5 in Winter over North China and Its Leading Circulation Patterns

Persistent pollution often occurs in North China in winter. The study of the sub-seasonal evolution characteristics of fine particles (PM2.5) can provide a theoretical basis for the prediction and prevention of persistent pollution. Based on the high-resolution gridded data of PM2.5 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, the sub-seasonal variation in PM2.5 in North China in winter and its dominant circulation patterns from 1960/61 to 2019/20 were analyzed. The results show that, in winter, PM2.5 in North China shows a dominant period of 10–20 days, and persistent heavy pollution occurs at the active phase of oscillation. Based on the PM2.5 quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) events, the 850 hPa wave train can be classified into four categories. It was found that, during the active phase of PM2.5 QBWO, the wind speed is weak and humidity is high in the low-troposphere for all of the four event types, while the quasi-biweekly 850 hPa wave train and the track of geopotential height anomaly are significantly different. Based on the characteristics of circulation evolution, these four types of events can be named as eastward, split southward, southeastward, and merged event. The energy conversion between the basic flow and the quasi-biweekly disturbance, and the mean flow difference are responsible for the circulation diversity for different PM2.5 QBWO events. The above research results can provide a theoretical basis for pollutant prediction.

Impact of Atmospheric Circulation Patterns on Ozone Changes in the Pearl River Delta from 2015 to 2020

Based on the ozone observation data and meteorological reanalysis data of the Pearl River Delta (PRD) from 2015 to 2020, the Lamb-Jenkinson weather typing method (LWTs) was used to analyze the characteristics of different circulation types and quantify their contributions to the interannual ozone variation. The results showed that there was a total of 18 weather types in PRD. Type ASW was more likely to occur with ozone pollution, and Type NE was associated with more serious ozone pollution. To better explore the ozone generation mechanism under different weather types, the 18 weather types were merged into five weather categories based on the wind direction change of the 850 hPa wind field and the different positions of the central system. The weather categories with high ozone concentration were the N-E-S directional category[(161±68) μg·m-3] and category A[(122±39) μg·m-3]. The ozone concentrations of these two categories were significantly positively correlated with the daily maximum temperature and the net amount of solar radiation. The N-E-S directional category was the dominant circulation pattern in autumn, whereas category A mostly occurred in spring, and 90% of the ozone pollution events occurring in PRD in spring were related to category A. The contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation frequency and intensity to interannual change in ozone concentration in PRD was 69%, and the contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation frequency alone was 4%. The changes in atmospheric circulation intensity and frequency on ozone-exceeding days contributed comparably to the interannual fluctuations in ozone pollution concentrations.

Upper–Lower Layer Coupling of Recurrent Circulation Patterns in the Gulf of Mexico

Abstract The study of the relationship between the upper and lower layers in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) has experienced a lot of progress in recent years. Nevertheless, an examination of their coupling for the entire GoM in a statistically consistent manner is still needed. Layer thickness data from a GoM 21-yr free-running simulation are used to examine the coupling between the upper (<250 m) and lower (>1000 m) layers, focusing on the dominant modes of variability through a Hilbert empirical orthogonal function (HEOF) analysis. The results show that the three leading modes are associated with the coupling between both layers during the life cycle of the Loop Current (LC) and the LC eddy (LCE) separation process, consistent with previous observational studies. These modes are cyclical, with periodicities in agreement with the mean LCE separation period, indicating recurrence of the circulation patterns. The fourth mode of the upper layer is associated with the translation of LCEs and their dissipation in the northwestern GoM, while in the lower layer it captures variability related to the strengthening of the circulation along the Sigsbee Gyre western branch. This mode does not show cyclicity, suggesting persistence of the associated circulation patterns with a dominant time scale of 14 months. Evidence and corroboration of recently observed lower-layer circulation features are provided. The application of the HEOF technique used here can complement the three-dimensional oceanic assimilation methods by projecting surface information to depth in a statistically consistent manner. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to better understand the relationship between the upper and lower ocean layers in the Gulf of Mexico. While much is known about their variability separately, an examination of the coupling through the whole region and in a long time period is still needed. We use a free numerical simulation of the circulation in the Gulf to accomplish this goal. The dominant circulation patterns in the lower layer are tied to the upper ones and are governed by the same temporal scales. Our findings point to a way to better understand the response of deep circulation to upper circulation, and may contribute to a better prediction of ocean dynamics.

Large-scale circulation patterns and their influence on European winter windstorm predictions

Severe winter windstorms are amongst the most damaging weather events for Europe and show significant interannual variability. While surface variables (temperature, precipitation) have been successfully predicted for some time now, predictability of severe windstorms caused by extra-tropical cyclones remains less well explored. This study investigates windstorm prediction skill of the UK Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System Version 5 (GloSea5) for the Northeast-Atlantic and European region. Based on an objective Lagrangian tracking of severe, damage relevant windstorms, three storm parameters are analysed: windstorm frequency and two intensity measures. Firstly, skill based on direct tracking of simulated windstorms is diagnosed. Significant positive skill for storm frequency and intensity is found over an extended area at the downstream end of the storm track, i.e., from the UK to southern Scandinavia. The skill for frequency agrees well with previous studies for older model versions, while the results of event-based intensity are novel. Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves for three smaller regions reveal significant skill for high and low storm activity seasons. Second, skill of windstorm characteristics based on their multi-linear regressions to three dominant large-scale circulation patterns [i.e., the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Scandinavian Pattern (SCA), and the East-Atlantic Pattern (EA)] are analysed. Although these large-scale patterns explain up to 80% of the interannual variance of windstorm frequency and up to 60% for intensity, the forecast skill for the respectively linear-regressed windstorms do not show systematically higher skill than the direct tracking approach. The signal-to-noise ratio of windstorm characteristics (frequency, intensity) is also quantified, confirming that the signal-to-noise paradox extends to windstorm predictions.

Spring Extreme Precipitation Days in North China and Their Reliance on Atmospheric Circulation Patterns during 1979–2019

Abstract The interannual variation of springtime extreme precipitation (SEP) days in North China (NC) and their reliance on atmospheric circulation patterns are studied by using the continuous daily record of 396 rain gauges and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis during 1979–2019. The SEP days are defined as the days when at least 10% of rain gauges in NC record daily precipitation no less than 10.5 mm. Results show that the number of SEP days shows large interannual variability but no significant trend in the study period. Using the objective classification method of the obliquely rotated principal analysis in T-mode, we classify the atmospheric circulation into five different patterns based on the geopotential height at 700 hPa. Three circulation patterns all have fronts and are associated with strong southerly wind, leading to 88% of SEP days in NC. The strong southerly wind may provide moisture and dynamic forcing for the frontal precipitation. The interannual variation of SEP days is related with the number of the three above-mentioned dominant circulation patterns. Further analysis shows that the West Pacific pattern could be one of the possible climate variability modes related to SEP days. This study reveals that the daily circulation pattern may be the linkage between SEP days and climate variability modes in NC. Significance Statement Springtime extreme precipitation (SEP) has important social and economic impacts on North China (NC), but few studies have examined the variation of SEP in NC. We find that the number of SEP days has no significant trend but shows large interannual variability during 1979–2019. The interannual variation of SEP days is mainly determined by the total days of three frontal circulation patterns associated with strong southerly wind. Based on the daily circulation pattern, the West Pacific pattern is found to be one of the possible climate variability modes related to SEP days. These findings may shed light on the understanding of SEP in midlatitudes around the world.

Dominant Anomalous Circulation Patterns of Tibetan Plateau Summer Climate Generated by ENSO-Forced and ENSO-Independent Teleconnections

Abstract The interannual variability of Tibetan Plateau (TP) summer climate has tremendous impacts on both regional hydrological cycles and global climate. In this study, we extract four dominant modes of the summertime large-scale circulation over the TP and surrounding areas from both the observation and simulations by a coupled general circulation model, CAS-FGOALS-f3-L. Based on the 10-member tropical Pacific pacemaker experiments, the ENSO-forced and ENSO-independent signals are isolated, each of which is represented by two dominant modes. The two ENSO-forced modes correspond to ENSO developing and decaying summer, respectively. The positive phase of the developing (decaying) ENSO-related mode is characterized by an anomalous baroclinic cyclone (anticyclone) over the western TP excited by the variations of the tropical summer monsoon rainfall. During the El Niño developing summer, the Indian monsoon rainfall variation is driven by an eastward shift of the Walker circulation due to warm anomalies in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific, whereas during the El Niño decaying summer it is caused by the basinwide warming in the tropical Indian Ocean. The two ENSO-independent modes are associated with the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) and the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern, respectively. The positive phases of the SNAO- and CGT-related modes are characterized by an anomalous anticyclone over the western TP and zonal cyclone–anticyclone dipole pattern over the TP, respectively, both of which are associated with mid- and high-latitude stationary Rossby wave trains.

A possible linkage of Eurasian heat wave and East Asian heavy rainfall in Relation to the Rapid Arctic warming

In June–July 2020 two remarkable weather events occurred in northern Eurasia. One is a severe heat wave that produced a record-breaking temperature of 38 °C at Verkhoyansk, eastern Siberia on 20 June. The other one is heavy rainfall events observed in East Asia (southern China and southwestern Japan) in early July, causing severe floods that brought about considerable damage to infrastructure and the economy, as well as the loss of human lives. Despite the accumulated evidence of stronger and more extreme heat waves and heavy rainfall as a result of global warming, little is known about the linkage between these phenomena. Given that the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the global mean, Arctic warming might be enhancing the increase of heavy rainfall events in East Asia.Here, we investigated the relationship between the Siberian heat wave and the East Asian heavy rainfall that occurred summer in 2020. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis applied to atmospheric reanalysis data of 1958–2020 period captures dominant summer circulation patterns reflecting atmospheric internal variability and externally forced anomalies. On the basis of these EOF patterns, operational forecasts of summer 2020 using the global model from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and a global climate model experiment based on 2-K warming future projection are utilized to examine roles of the internal variability and external forcing, respectively. Consistent results between them reveal that development of the blocking high over eastern Siberia has certain impacts on rainfall anomalies over East Asia. By a statistical technique applied to the ensemble forecast data, prediction of the East Asian precipitation is improved by 10–20% of its amplitude.Our research demonstrates possibility that East Asian rainfall is being enhanced by high-latitude atmospheric circulations due to the Arctic warming even in the current climate in which the tropical warming is not yet severe. Suggestions are given that continued Arctic warming and a future increase of tropical warming will lead to increases of the frequency and severity of heavy rainfall events in East Asia.

Seascape Genomics Reveals Metapopulation Connectivity Network of Paramuricea biscaya in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

The degree of connectivity among populations influences their ability to respond to natural and anthropogenic stressors. In marine systems, determining the scale, rate, and directionality of larval dispersal is therefore, central to understanding how coral metapopulations are interconnected and the degree of resiliency in the event of a localized disturbance. Understanding these source-sink dynamics is essential to guide restoration efforts and for the study of ecology and evolution in the ocean. The patterns and mechanisms of connectivity in the deep-sea (>200 m deep) are largely understudied. In this study, we investigated the spatial diversity patterns and metapopulation connectivity of the octocoral Paramuricea biscaya throughout the northern Gulf of Mexico (GoM). Paramuricea biscaya is one of the most abundant corals on the lower continental slope (between 1,200 and 2,500 m) in the GoM. The 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill (DWH) directly impacted populations of this species and thus are considered primary targets for restoration. We used a combination of seascape genomic analyses, high-resolution ocean circulation modeling, and larval dispersal simulations to quantify the degree of population structuring and connectivity among P. biscaya populations. Evidence supports the hypotheses that the genetic diversity of P. biscaya is structured by depth, and that larval dispersal among connected populations is asymmetric due to dominant ocean circulation patterns. Our results suggest that there are intermediate unsampled populations in the central GoM that serve as stepping stones for dispersal. The data suggest that the DeSoto Canyon area, and possibly the West Florida Escarpment, critically act as sources of larvae for areas impacted by the DWH oil spill in the Mississippi Canyon. This work illustrates that the management of deep-sea marine protected areas should incorporate knowledge of connectivity networks and depth-dependent processes throughout the water column.

Classification of the Circulation Patterns Related to Strong Dust Weather in China Using a Combination of the Lamb–Jenkinson and k-Means Clustering Methods

Sand and dust storms (SDSs) cause major disasters in northern China. They have serious impacts on human health, daily life, and industrial and agricultural production, in addition to threatening the regional ecological environment and social economy. Based on meteorological observational data and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA5 dataset for spring 2000–2021, we used the Lamb–Jenkinson circulation classification method to classify the three major areas influencing SDSs in northern China. We also used the k-means clustering method to classify the overall circulation pattern in northern China. Our results show that the circulation types favoring SDSs in the southern basin of Xinjiang are southwesterly winds (SW), cyclones (C), and anticyclones (A). The circulation types favoring SDSs in western Inner Mongolia and southern Mongolia are northwesterly winds (NW), northerly winds (N), cyclones (C), and anticyclones (A). The circulation types favoring SDSs in central Inner Mongolia are northwesterly winds (NW), northerly winds (N), southwesterly winds (SW), and anticyclones (A). The 500 hPa and surface circulation patterns in China can be divided into nine types. Among them, five dominant circulation patterns favor strong SDSs: a cold high-pressure region and cold front (T1), a Mongolian cyclone (T2), a mixed type of Mongolian cyclone and cold front (T3), a thermal depression and cold front (T5), and a cold front (T8). During 2000–2004, the T8 circulation pattern occurred most frequently as the main influencing circulation. From 2005 to 2010, the T3 and T8 circulation patterns dominated. Circulation patterns T1 and T3 dominated during 2011–2015 and 2016–2020, respectively. We analyzed the main circulation patterns for four SDS events occurring in 2021 by combining the Lamb–Jenkinson and k-means methods. The SDS events in 2021 were closest to the T3 circulation pattern and were mainly influenced by Mongolian cyclones and surface cold fronts. The main propagation paths were westerly and northwesterly.