Large-scale circulation patterns and their influence on European winter windstorm predictions

Abstract

Severe winter windstorms are amongst the most damaging weather events for Europe and show significant interannual variability. While surface variables (temperature, precipitation) have been successfully predicted for some time now, predictability of severe windstorms caused by extra-tropical cyclones remains less well explored. This study investigates windstorm prediction skill of the UK Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System Version 5 (GloSea5) for the Northeast-Atlantic and European region. Based on an objective Lagrangian tracking of severe, damage relevant windstorms, three storm parameters are analysed: windstorm frequency and two intensity measures. Firstly, skill based on direct tracking of simulated windstorms is diagnosed. Significant positive skill for storm frequency and intensity is found over an extended area at the downstream end of the storm track, i.e., from the UK to southern Scandinavia. The skill for frequency agrees well with previous studies for older model versions, while the results of event-based intensity are novel. Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves for three smaller regions reveal significant skill for high and low storm activity seasons. Second, skill of windstorm characteristics based on their multi-linear regressions to three dominant large-scale circulation patterns [i.e., the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Scandinavian Pattern (SCA), and the East-Atlantic Pattern (EA)] are analysed. Although these large-scale patterns explain up to 80% of the interannual variance of windstorm frequency and up to 60% for intensity, the forecast skill for the respectively linear-regressed windstorms do not show systematically higher skill than the direct tracking approach. The signal-to-noise ratio of windstorm characteristics (frequency, intensity) is also quantified, confirming that the signal-to-noise paradox extends to windstorm predictions.