Abstract
Renewable energy production is known to present variability on several time-scales. The large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns influence the anomalies of relevant climate variables for energy production, such as wind speed and direction or solar radiation, from sub-seasonal to multi-decadal time-scales. This work aims at evaluating the link between large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and monthly wind power resource and production in Portugal. The three climate modes under focus are the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic Pattern (EA) and the Scandinavian Pattern (SCAND), which are considered the most relevant large-scale circulation patterns for the climate of Southwestern Europe. The impact of each of the three climate variability modes and their combined effect on wind power resource on monthly and annual wind energy production is assessed, using both meteorological station data and wind power generation in Continental Portugal.The analysis highlights the need to better understand the link between major patterns of atmospheric circulation and renewable energy production, which increases the potential predictability in different time-scales.
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