Obvious difference of dominant circulation patterns between dry‐type and humid‐type heatwaves in North China

The relationship between the North Pacific Oscillation( NPO) in May and the summer drought /flood in North China was analysed using the NCEP /NCAR month by month reanalysis data from 1948 to 2011 including sea level pressure,500 hPa geopotential height,specific humidity( 8 layers) and wind field( 8 layers). The North Pacific Oscillation Index( NPOI) which reflects the changes of the sea level pressure in North Pacific was calculated firstly. Then the correlation coefficient between NPOI and Palmer Drought Severity Index( PDSI)which represents the situation of summer drought /flood in North China from 1960 to 2011 was also calculated.The results show that there is a positive correlation between NPO and summer drought /flood in North China.When in positive NPOI years,PDSI in summer is higher than normal,and North China has more summer floods; otherwise,in negative NPOI years,PDSI in summer is lower than normal,and North China has more summer droughts. In order to explain the positive correlation between NPO and summer drought /flood in North China,wind vector field on 850 hPa and geopotential height field on 500 hPa were composite analysed,respectively,and compare the different intensity,area and position of western boundary of Western Pacific Subtropical High( WPSH) when NPO is in different strength( weak and strong). The possible circulation mechanism is that when in positive( negative) NPOI years,on lower layer( 850 hPa wind field),the common action of anti-cyclonic( cyclonic) in Ural Mountains,the cyclone( anti-cyclonic) of Lake Baikal,and the anti-cyclonic( cyclonic) anomaly circulation in West Pacific have strengthened( weakened) the convergence of south-west warm and humid air flows of low layer in North China region. And also,when in positive( negative) NPOI years,500 hPa geopotential height anomaly shows ‘+-+'( ‘-+-') wave train,and WPSH is stronger( weaker) shifting northwest( southeast) than normal years,cold and warm air activities make more( less) rainfall in North China.Vertically intergraded moisture fluxes was calculated,in order to show water transportation of summer drought /flood in North China and study the relationship between NPO in May and sea surface temperature in winter by using composition method. In the difference of vertically intergraded moisture fluxes field in summer,the moisture transport from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal and the West Pacific make North China the positive anomaly of water vapor moisture,so there is more rainfall in North China; In divergence field,the water vapor divergence is negative in North China,so it is moisture sink and there is more rain. And also the Arabian Sea,Bay of Bengal,the south of Indo-China Peninsula to the South China Sea and the Western Pacific are the water vapor divergence centers,which are important vapor source for North China. The SST in winter in Pacific Ocean has forcing role on NPO in May,which influences summer drought /flood in North China.

In August-September 2021, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) showed significant anomalies, with some areas between the Yangtze and Yellow River basins in China suffering from heavy rainfall and flooding, while extreme heat occurred in Southern China. Using the 6 h reanalysis data of NCEP/NCAR and the daily precipitation observation data, this paper studied the abnormal characteristics and the thermal mechanism of the three-dimensional ridge of the WPSH during the seasonal transition from late summer to early autumn in August-September 2021, and explored its connection with the precipitation in the areas between the Yangtze and Yellow River basins in China during the same period. The results showed that, in August-September 2021, the three-dimensional ridge of the WPSH appeared to be southward at the lower troposphere and tilted northward with height. According to the diagnosis of the atmospheric heat source, it was found that the center of atmospheric cold source in the low latitudes at 850 hPa enhanced the surface high pressure, corresponding to the WPSH ridge shifting southward at the lower troposphere, which led to more water vapor convergence and more precipitation between the Yangtze and Yellow River basins. The latent heat of condensation released by the increased precipitation between the Yangtze and Yellow River basins in China heated the middle and upper troposphere, increasing the intensity of the high pressure in the upper troposphere, corresponding to the WPSH ridge northward at the upper troposphere. This anomalous tilt of the WPSH ridge in August-September 2021 and the intense precipitation processes between the Yangtze and Yellow River basins in China during the same period established a reciprocal feedback mechanism through diabatic heating. Further studies also showed that the anomalous tilt of the WPSH ridge is one of the important modes of its three-dimensional structural anomalies, and that, in years when the ridge tilts from south to north with height anomalously in August-September, the areas between the Yangtze and Yellow River basins are characterized by high precipitation.

The abnormal characteristics of extremely warm early summer (EWES) in North China under different decadal backgrounds were contrastively analyzed. Their relationships with upper- and lower-level atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) are also discussed. Results show that temperature anomalies of EWES in North China are overall higher than normal in both cold (1961–1993) and warm (1994–2019) periods, but the anomalies of the latter are much higher than that of the former. EWES in North China is directly related to the circulation lying between 40° and 50°N in the middle troposphere, which leads to positive temperature anomalies occurring from the bottom to the upper level of the troposphere together with a high anomaly trend tilting northward. The persistent and strong Eurasian continental high (ECH) and weak Northeast China cold vortex (NECV) activity, together with the strong western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) are major factors that directly lead to EWES in North China. ECH and WPSH are stronger and larger, and NECV are weaker and more northward in the warm period than in the cold period. In addition, the positive SSTAs in the tropical Indian Ocean and the Kuroshio area are favorable for the stronger and larger ECH and WPSH as well as the weaker and more northward NECV, causing strong anticyclonic and downward circulation system controlling North China, resulting in the extremely warm temperatures there. The joint impact of the positive tropical Indian Ocean SSTAs and the Kuroshio region SSTAs is more significant during warm than cold periods, resulting in much stronger EWES in North China during warm periods.

In previous statistical forecast models, prediction of summer precipitation along the Yangtze River valley and in North China relies heavily on its close relationships with the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), the blocking high in higher latitudes, and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). These relationships were stable before the 1990s but have changed remarkably in the recent two decades. Before the 1990s, precipitation along the Yangtze River had a significant positive correlation with the intensity of the WPSH, but the correlation weakened rapidly after 1990, and the correlation between summer rainfall in North China and the WPSH also changed from weak negative to significantly positive. The changed relationships present a big challenge to the application of traditional statistical seasonal prediction models. Our study indicates that the change could be attributed to expansion of the WPSH after around 1990. Owing to global warming, increased sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific rendered the WPSH stronger and further westward. Under this condition, more moisture was transported from southern to northern China, leading to divergence and reduced (increased) rainfall over the Yangtze River (North China). On the other hand, when the WPSH was weaker, it stayed close to its climatological position (rather than more eastward), and the circulations showed an asymmetrical feature between the stronger and weaker WPSH cases owing to the decadal enhancement of the WPSH. Composite analysis reveals that the maximum difference in the moisture transport before and after 1990 appeared over the western Pacific. This asymmetric influence is possibly the reason why the previous relationships between monsoon circulations and summer rainfall have now changed.

Abstract. Associations between tropospheric ozone (O3) and climate variations have been extensively investigated worldwide. However, given the lack of historical O3 monitoring data, the knowledge gaps regarding the influences of climate variations on long-term O3 trends in China remain. The present study used a tropospheric O3 dataset from the summers of 1999 to 2017 simulated by an atmospheric chemistry model to explore the linkage between summer O3 and a dominant atmospheric circulation system – the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) pressure – on an interannual basis in China. During this period, both WPSH strength and O3 concentrations in eastern and central China illustrated a growing trend. An EOF analysis was conducted to examine significant summer O3 characteristics and patterns and their potential connections with the WPSH. We find that the correlation between the first principal component of summer ozone concentration in the EOF analysis and the WPSH reached 0.56 (P≤0.01) in China from 1999 to 2017. We show that the WPSH determines interannual fluctuations of summer O3, whereas O3 precursor emissions contribute primarily to the O3 long-term trend. Our results reveal that the WPSH plays a vital role in O3 perturbation in the eastern seaboard regions and inland China. Precursor emissions made more significant contributions of up to 60 % to increasing O3 trends in the inland urban agglomerations than coastal regions in eastern and southern China. The strongest contribution of meteorological conditions associated with the WPSH to summer O3 occurred in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), accounting for over 9 % to ozone perturbations from 1999 to 2017. We find that the effect of the WPSH on regional O3 depends on the spatial proximity to the WPSH. We attributed the effects of the WPSH on O3 interannual variations to the changes in air temperature, precipitation, and winds associated with the WPSH's intensity and positions.

Unique impacts of strong and westward-extended western Pacific subtropical high on ozone pollution over eastern China

Using station rainfall data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis from 1978-2007, we charac- terize the spatial variations of the heavy rainfall (Meiyu) during June-July over the Jiang-Huai basin (JHB, ~28°-34° N and 110°-122° E) in East China and their associated atmospheric circula- tions. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the Meiyu rainfall revealed 2 other sig- nificant modes besides the dominant basin-wide in-phase mode. They include a north-south dipole (out-of-phase) pattern (EOF 2) and a roughly east-west dipole pattern (EOF 3). During the 'south flood and north drought' (SF/ND) phase of EOF 2, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is displaced southward, which prevents the East Asian summer monsoon from reaching as far north as in normal years. A cyclonic anomaly circulation at 850 hPa occurs over Southeast China and an ascending (descending) anomaly motion south (north) of ~30° N is seen over the JHB, which contributes to the excess (lack) of Meiyu rainfall south (north) of ~30° N over the JHB during the SF/ND years. During the opposite phase of this mode, these anomaly circulation pat- terns are roughly reversed. During the 'east wet and west dry' phase of EOF 3, the WPSH is dis- placed eastward, and a cyclonic anomaly circulation centered south of Japan brings more mois- ture from the Yellow and East China Seas into the eastern part of the JHB; while southwesterly vapor fluxes past over the western part of the JHB and converges over North China, leaving the western part of the JHB relatively dry. During the opposite phase, the WPSH is shifted northwest- ward, and the anomaly moisture transports are reversed over the JHB.

Severe flooding occurred in Northeast China (NEC) in summer 2013. Compared with the rainfall climatology of the region, the rainy season began earlier in 2013 and two main rainy periods occurred from late June to early July and from mid July to early August, respectively. During the summer season of 2013, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) was located farther westward, which strengthened the southerly winds on its west side in the lower troposphere. Under this circulation pattern, more water vapor was transported to North China and NEC. Another moisture transport pathway to NEC was traced to the cross-equatorial flow over the Bay of Bengal. In mid–high latitudes in summer 2013, the Northeast Cold Vortex (NECV) was much stronger and remained stable over NEC. Thus, the cold air flow from its northwest side frequently met with the warm and wet air from the south to form stronger moisture convergence at lower levels in the troposphere, resulting in increased precipitation over the region. Correlation analysis indicated that the NECV played a more direct role than the WPSH. Synoptic analyses of the two heaviest flood cases on 2 and 16 July confirmed this conclusion. The four wettest summers in NEC before 2000 were also analyzed and the results were consistent with the conclusion that both the WPSH and the NECV led to the intense rainfall in NEC, but the NECV had a more direct role.

Persistent pollution often occurs in North China in winter. The study of the sub-seasonal evolution characteristics of fine particles (PM2.5) can provide a theoretical basis for the prediction and prevention of persistent pollution. Based on the high-resolution gridded data of PM2.5 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, the sub-seasonal variation in PM2.5 in North China in winter and its dominant circulation patterns from 1960/61 to 2019/20 were analyzed. The results show that, in winter, PM2.5 in North China shows a dominant period of 10–20 days, and persistent heavy pollution occurs at the active phase of oscillation. Based on the PM2.5 quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) events, the 850 hPa wave train can be classified into four categories. It was found that, during the active phase of PM2.5 QBWO, the wind speed is weak and humidity is high in the low-troposphere for all of the four event types, while the quasi-biweekly 850 hPa wave train and the track of geopotential height anomaly are significantly different. Based on the characteristics of circulation evolution, these four types of events can be named as eastward, split southward, southeastward, and merged event. The energy conversion between the basic flow and the quasi-biweekly disturbance, and the mean flow difference are responsible for the circulation diversity for different PM2.5 QBWO events. The above research results can provide a theoretical basis for pollutant prediction.

Based on the simulations of 32 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), the present study assesses their capacity to simulate the relationship of the summer Asian–Pacific Oscillation (APO) with the vertical zonal wind shear, low-level atmospheric vorticity, mid-level humidity, atmospheric divergence in the lower and upper troposphere, and western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) that are closely associated with the genesis of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific. The results indicate that five models can simultaneously reproduce the observed pattern with the positive APO phase accompanied by weak vertical zonal wind shear, strengthened vorticity in the lower troposphere, increased mid-level humidity, intensified low-level convergence and high-level divergence, and a northward-located WPSH over the western North Pacific. These five models are further used to project their potential relationship under the RCP8.5 scenario during 2050–2099. Compared to 1950–1999, the relationship between the APO and the vertical zonal wind shear is projected to weaken by both the multi-model ensemble and the individual models. Its linkage to the low-level vorticity, mid-level humidity, atmospheric divergence in the lower and upper troposphere, and the northward–southward movement of the WPSH would also reduce slightly but still be significant. However, the individual models show relatively large differences in projecting the linkage between the APO and the mid-level humidity and low-level divergence.

Based on the daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the position variation of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) in June 2005 and its relation to the diabatic heating in the subtropical East Asia are analyzed using the complete vertical vorticity equation. The results show that the position variation of the WPSH is indeed associated with the diabatic heating in the subtropical East Asian areas. In comparison with June climatology, stronger heating on the north side of the WPSH and relatively weak ITCZ (intertropical convergence zone) convection on the south side of the WPSH occurred in June 2005. Along with the northward movement of the WPSH, the convective latent heating extended northward from the south side of the WPSH. The heating to the west of the WPSH was generally greater than that inside the WPSH, and each significant enhancement of the heating field corresponded to a subsequent westward extension of the WPSH. In the mid troposphere, the vertical variation of heating on the north of the WPSH was greater than the climatology, which is unfavorable for the northward movement of the WPSH. On the other hand, the vertical variation of heating south of the WPSH was largely smaller than the climatology, which is favorable for the anomalous increase of anticyclonic vorticity, leading to the southward retreat of the WPSH. Before the westward extension of the WPSH in late June 2005, the vertical variation of heating rates to (in) the west (east) of the WPSH was largely higher (lower) than the climatology, which is in favor of the increase of anticyclonic (cyclonic) vorticity to (in) the west (east) of the WPSH, inducing the subsequent westward extension of the WPSH. Similar features appeared in the lower troposphere. In a word, the heating on the north-south, east-west of the WPSH worked together, resulting in the WPSH extending more southward and westward in June 2005, which is favorable to the maintenance of the rainbelt in South China.

The zonal oscillation of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) significantly influences the weather and climate over East Asia. This study investigates characteristics and mechanisms of the zonal variability of the WPSH on subseasonal time scales during summer by using a subseasonal WPSH (Sub-WPSH) index. Accompanied with the Sub-WPSH index, strong anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomalies are found over East Asia and coastal region south of 30°N on both 850 hPa and 500 hPa. During the positive period of the Sub-WPSH index, the WPSH extends more westward with enhanced precipitation over the Yangtze–Huaihe river basin and suppressed precipitation over the south of the Yangtze River in China. These precipitation anomalies can last for at least 1 week. While the subseasonal zonal variability of the WPSH is found to be closely associated with atmospheric teleconnections and local air- sea interaction, the mechanisms of the variability are different before and after mid-July (early and late summer). In both early and late summer, the East Asia/Pacific (EAP) wave train pattern affects the zonal shift of the WPSH by inducing a low-level anomalous anticyclonic/cyclonic circulation over the subtropical western Pacific, and this mechanism is stronger in late summer. In constrast, the influence of the Silk-Road pattern wave train is more important in the early summer. Meanwhile, in late summer, a stronger SST forcing on the atmosphere and a faster cycle of subseasonal variations of the WPSH are observed before the westward stretch of the WPSH, which could be related to the colder local SST anomalies. The westward stretch of the WPSH is accompanied by stronger anticyclonic anomalies in late summer.

This study examines the features and dynamical processes of subseasonal zonal oscillation of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) during early summer, by performing a multivariate empirical orthogonal function (MV-EOF) analysis on daily winds and a diagnosis on potential vorticity (PV) at 500 hPa for the period 1979–2016. The first MV-EOF mode is characterized by an anticyclonic anomaly occupying southeastern China to subtropical western North Pacific regions. It has a period of 10–25 days and represents zonal shift of the WPSH. When the WPSH stretches more westward, the South Asian high (SAH) extends more eastward. Above-normal precipitation is observed over the Yangtze–Huaihe River (YHR) basin. Suppressed convection with anomalous descending motion is located over the subtropical western North Pacific. The relative zonal movement of the SAH and the WPSH helps to establish an anomalous local vertical circulation of ascending motion with upper-level divergence over the YHR basin and descending motion with upper-level convergence over the subtropical western Pacific. The above local vertical circulation provides a dynamic condition for persistent rainfall over the YHR basin. An enhanced southwest flow over the WPSH’s western edge transports more moisture to eastern China, providing a necessary water vapor condition for the persistent rainfall over the YHR basin. A potential vorticity diagnosis reveals that anomalous diaba-tic heating is a main source for PV generation. The anomalous cooling over the subtropical western Pacific produces a local negative PV center at 500 hPa. The anomalous heating over the YHR basin generates a local positive PV center. The above south–north dipolar structure of PV anomaly along with the climatological southerly flow leads to northward advection of negative PV. These two processes are conducive to the WPSH’s westward extension. The vertical advection process is unfavorable to the westward extension but contributes to the eastward retreat of the WPSH.

ABSTRACTSummer precipitation in the northern China monsoon region (NCMR; 35°–55°N, 108°–135°E) shows significant intraseasonal variability. The early-summer (June) and late-summer (July–August) precipitation patterns show clear differences in their formation mechanisms and the systems that affect them. We used empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to investigate the two leading modes of July–August precipitation over the NCMR and their associated atmospheric circulation anomalies using linear regression. The results show that the first (EOF1) and second (EOF2) modes correspond to a pan-NCMR precipitation variation pattern and a precipitation oscillation pattern between North China (NC) and Northeast China (NEC), respectively. These two modes account for 22.1% and 10.1% of the total variance, respectively. The associated principal components (PCs) both have significant interannual variability with a period of 2–4 years. In addition, PC1 has significant interdecadal variability with a period of 20–30 years. Further analysis suggests that EOF1 and EOF2 clearly have a different relationship with the summer monsoon circulation system. In the positive phase of PC1, the East Asian subtropical westerly jet stream (EAWJS) shows a northward trend with higher intensity than normal the blocking high at mid- to high latitudes is inactive; and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is located to the north of its normal position. The NCMR is controlled by stronger southerly winds, which cause the convergence of water vapour, favouring more precipitation in this region and vice versa. In the positive phase of PC2, the EAWJS swings to the south of Lake Baikal. Significant positive height anomalies exist from western NC to NEC. Significant negative height anomalies occur to the subtropical northwestern Pacific. This indicates that the cold vortex in Northeast China is inactive, the WPSH tends to be weaker and located to the south of its normal position, and NEC (NC) is dominated by anomalous northeasterly (southeasterly) winds. The convergence (divergence) of water vapour in NC (NEC) favours more (less) precipitation in NC (NEC) and vice versa. Therefore, EOF1 is related to the large-scale circulation anomalies over East Asia and the northwest Pacific in July and August, whereas EOF2 is more closely related to the anomalies in the regional circulation over the NCMR and the subtropical northwestern Pacific.

This study examines the relationship between the zonal oscillation of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and underneath sea surface temperature (SST) variation on a subseasonal time scale, associated with the persistent heavy rainfall (PHR) events over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (MLYRV) in China. A total of 76 PHR events and 45 break events in the summers of 1979–2011 are first identified over the MLYRV and divided into early and late summer groups. During the PHR events over the MLYRV for both groups, the WPSH stretches more westward, accompanied by the positive anomalies of the 500-hPa geopotential height field over East Asia and its coastal region south of 30°N and the subseasonal warmer SSTs beneath the WPSH western edge. The time-lagged composites suggest that the WPSH western edge exhibits westward-then-eastward migration on a subseasonal time scale for the PHR events. The zonal changes of the WPSH and anomalous circulation and SST anomaly (SSTA) signals for break events is almost the mirror image of that for the PHR events for the early summer group. Accompanied by the WPSH westward extension, the increased incident solar radiation and decreased latent heat flux over the coastal region of East Asia contribute to the positive SSTAs beneath the western part of the WPSH. The positive SSTAs construct a convective instability that provides an adverse condition for maintaining the anticyclonic anomalies in the mid–lower levels. The persistent SST warming is also favorable to the transition of low-level circulation from anticyclonic to cyclonic anomalies over the coastal region. As a result, the WPSH withdraws eastward after the peak of the rainfall events over the MLYRV.