Domestic Unrest Research Articles

Ecclesiastico-pastoral care for social security grant holders in South Africa

This article aims to address the gap in research on ecclesiastical and pastoral care for congregational members dependent on government grants from the South African Social Security Agency (SASSA). It emphasises the impact of the dire socio-economic circumstances of congregants, and the role it plays in the life of the ordained pastor of the Uniting Reformed Church in Southern Africa (URCSA), navigating through the dynamics on their daily realities. The primary question addressed is: What amount of care is possible from the side of the church and the pastor to deal with SASSA related problems experienced by congregants? It is based on two types of data: firstly, five semi-structured interviews conducted with five women, three of them mothers who receive a Child Support Grant, and two grandmothers whose teenage daughters receive this grant. A second data set consists of recollections by a pastor who ministers in a community where the only income of most of the inhabitants is SASSA Grant related. Seven stories are told of pastoring needs related to SASSA Grant holders. Applying Narrative Therapy as method, data was analysed and nine themes emerged: (1) The church acknowledging and managing the needs of mothers; (2) the church providing a ‘haven’ for young mothers harassed by the father of the child; (3) pastoring domestic unrest among older grant holders; (4) pastoring congregants who are scammed out of a SASSA Grant; (5) supporting congregants who escape domestic violence through SASSA; (6) the church co-ordinating between significant others; (7) pastoring honour and shame; (8) protecting the elderly; and (9) pastoring conflicting cultural expectations vis-à-vis the SASSA Grant. This article concludes with a summary of and recommendations on ecclesiastico-pastoral care for SASSA Grant holders.Contribution: This article emphasises the importance of a multi-dimensional, non-theoretical approach in providing insight into the reality of ecclesiastical-pastoral care of congregants – care that extends beyond spiritual well-being to the livelihoods of vulnerable communities with various socio-economic needs, particularly those solely dependent on government grants.

Explaining Russian state-sponsored disinformation campaigns: who is targeted and why?

ABSTRACT In this paper, we empirically examine the explanations for the frequency of Russian disinformation attacks on countries in Europe or the countries that were formerly part of the Soviet Union from 2015 to 2021. Using negative binomial regression analysis, we find that disinformation attacks are most frequent when (1) a country was holding a national election in that year, and (2) if that country was experiencing significant political unrest. These findings demonstrate that Russian disinformation is primarily motivated by an interest in influencing election results and promoting domestic unrest in target countries.

Domestic turmoil and diversionary hypothesis: A linear relationship?

Why do individual case studies reveal evidence in favor of diversionary behavior by states, yet quantitative studies often produce many mixed results? In this paper, I help to explain this puzzle by arguing that there is a curvilinear relationship between internal conflict and external diversionary behavior as opposed to a linear one. By looking at contentious issues mainly in the Western Hemisphere from 1962 to 2001 using data from the Issue Correlates of War (ICOW) project, I find that countries with moderate levels of domestic unrest are most likely to initiate a militarized interstate conflict. Furthermore, I find that in times of elite unrest, states are more likely to have diversionary behaviors. In contrast, mass unrest is unlikely to incentivize states to use foreign policy adventures to rally domestic support. Such a finding helps deepen our understanding of the complex conditions leading to diversionary actions.

Cross-border Threats, Reputational Costs and the Evolution of an Authoritarian Club: The Case of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation

This article adopted a repeated stag hunt game-theoretic model to explain the evolution of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). It shows that the degree of state cooperation with the SCO relates positively to the expected benefits of legitimate suppression of domestic unrest, to the material and reputational costs of enforcing anti-human rights norms, to the continuation of the three evils and to the tolerance for other members’ occasional betrayal. The SCO thus faces a dilemma. On the one hand, to sustain cooperation, it supports authoritarian leaders’ suppression of political dissidents. On the other hand, the SCO’s norms hostile towards human rights violate established international standards, thereby increasing the potential costs of mutual support. China’s global hunt for Uyghurs, the extension of membership, and Russia’s aggression in the region raise potential costs and harm the mutual trust within the SCO. These factors may gradually undermine leaders’ willingness to support the SCO.

Global War and Anti-Radical Legislation: Japan and the Peace Preservation Law of 1925

ABSTRACT Japan’s military participation in the First World War was relatively brief but the war and the ideas it unlocked exerted an impact up to and after the Second World War. Japan experienced an economic boom during the war resulting in an exponential increase in the cost of rice. This sparked a serious challenge to the Japanese state. The ensuing rice riots of 1918 saw the government forced to deploy more troops to suppress them than it had sent to intervene on behalf of White Russian forces in Siberia in the same year. Further, the ‘Wilsonian Moment’ emboldened the Korean independence movement in 1919. When the war ended on the Western Front in 1918, Japan was involved in military intervention in Eastern Russia, was quelling domestic unrest, and facing a major threat to the stability of its empire. Although enacted in 1925, the Peace Preservation Law grew directly from the events beginning in the final year of the First World War. The law was the instrumental platform for the construction of Japan’s infamous thought control apparatus of the 1930s and the policing of Japan’s formal and informal empires. This paper traces the wartime origins of the Peace Preservation Law in the context of the state of exception and how the First World War and the Russian Revolution forced Japan to rethink its conception of sovereignty.

Physical, Psychological and Social Secondary Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Turkish University Students.

This study aims to investigate the effect of the COVID‐19 pandemic on university students and their families. A total of 274 students participated in this study. A questionnaire is developed regarding the physical, psychological, and social effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic, and sent to the students via e‐mail. According to the results of the study, students who contracted COVID‐19 experienced significantly higher musculoskeletal pain (MSP) (p = 0.01). Students with increased propensity for harmful habits experienced significantly more MSP (p = 0.01). Anxiety levels of students who experienced MSP were significantly higher (p = 0.01). Students living in an inadequate home environment were significantly more prone to harmful habits (p = 0.01). The anxiety level of the students who experienced domestic unrest was high (p = 0.02). The home environment of students with economic difficulties was significantly inadequate (p = 0.01). The anxiety levels of the students whose participation in sports and art activities decreased, were high (p = 0.04). The home environment of the students who reported that they were positively affected by distance education was significantly inadequate (p = 0.03). The authors suggest that physiotherapy, nutrition and psychological assistance services should be provided to students, scholarship opportunities and extracurricular activities (art and sports activities) should be increased.

Ethnicity in management studies

Many global changes in the past three decades pose new challenges for contemporary management, including the perception of ethnicity by individuals in different geographic entities. In the European Union (E.U.), Central and Eastern Europe, and Lithuania in particular, ethnicity and social identity are challenged by contemporary political, business, and social life, especially after the dissolution of the USSR and the restoration of independence of nations. The purpose of this study is twofold. First, to provide empirical evidence that issues of ethnicity matter at different levels in an organizational context in this six-country study. Second, we contribute to the body of knowledge in management and social science research on demographic survey items such as ethnicity. We contribute to changing approaches to the logic of specific survey items and shed new light on the response rate challenges and fatigue that can weaken empirical studies and stagnate the implementation of new knowledge. Findings suggest that in more homogeneous societies or societies facing domestic unrest, the ethnicity question may be perceived as unexpected, taboo, discriminatory, or confusing. This uncertainty among respondents can lead to a high dropout rate in research. We provide six specific recommendations for future research designs to address this challenge.

Wars of Choice: Leaders, Rebellion Legacy, and Domestic Unrest

Abstract Existing studies suggest that leaders that have earlier been participants in rebellions have a higher propensity for international conflict than leaders with no such experience. This paper examines whether prior involvement in rebellions will induce leaders to initiate international conflicts during domestic strife. I propose a preference modification approach and argue that rebel leaders’ policy choices during domestic unrest are a product of their pre-existing preferences and contextual factors. Specifically, I claim that the greater preference for conflict abroad during domestic unrest that former rebel leaders display than do their fellow leaders is contingent on the severity level of domestic problems. When facing serious internal unrest, rebel leaders are less likely than their non-rebel counterparts to engage in international conflicts due to the effect that critical domestic strife will have on the former’s perceptions and thus their policy preferences. Intense domestic strife predisposes rebel leaders to engage in both international conflict and domestic measures, which to some extent neutralises their original policy preference of international conflict as the sole policy response. By contrast, non-rebel leaders perceive more efficacy in international conflict during severe domestic unrest and are more likely to initiate an international dispute in that case. Statistical analyses of the international militarised dispute initiations of leaders under domestic strife from 1875 to 2000 reveal strong support for these arguments.

Allusion, reasoning and luring in Chinese psychological warfare

Abstract China's global proliferation of psychological warfare, operating in small signatures and low visibility, reflects a cultural continuity of ancient strategic thought and martial philosophy. Contemporary analysis explains how China's attempts to coerce and persuade its target entities work through systematic deception and perception management to achieve its authoritarian objectives. However, there are gaps in the understanding of these operations as distinct from conventional statecraft, and in the configuration and mechanism of actions constituting bottom-up change toward subduing the enemy without fighting. To guide the analysis of China's psychological warfare in an organized manner, an explanatory framework of three cultural drivers—allusion (anshi), reasoning (douzhi) and luring (yinyou)—and six tactics—induction (youdao), coercion (xiepo), sentiment (qinggan), hoax (xirao), persuasion (ganhua) and disguise (qiaozhuang)—were devised. It is argued that the deeply rooted ideational and materially embodied dynamics continue to exploit western social vulnerabilities and the open nature of democratic institutions by introducing policy confusion, assimilation and division. However, failing to recognise these as normative social practices will result in misguided counter-measures aimed at transforming the communist system into a capitalist democracy, triggering domestic social unrest, or discrediting the CCP leadership in the eyes of the world and the Chinese people.

The elite-level demonstration effect of the Arab Spring in Kazakhstan

ABSTRACT What impact has the ‘Arab Spring’ had upon Kazakhstan's approach to regime security? Short of the possibility of a ‘Central Asian Spring’, if and how the Arab Spring reshaped this authoritarian regime has not been addressed. A longitudinal narrative analysis of Kazakhstan's presidential rhetoric from 2005 to 2015 and fieldwork interviews indicated that the Arab Spring uprisings brought about an elite-level demonstration effect. That is, the regime perceived a heightened threat to its security as a result of instability and regime responses elsewhere, and it sought to shore-up its position and forestall the emergence of local challenges as a consequence of this, whether through discourse, behaviour or policy. This suggests that uprisings elsewhere, including those outside of a state's immediate region, can affect perceptions of regime security in the medium term, despite the absence of domestic unrest at home and a lack of close social and cultural ties between regions.

Do petroleum rents fuel conflict in developing countries? A case study of political instability in Timor-Leste

This paper causally links petroleum dependence to political instability in developing countries through the three core characteristics of the rentier state—weak institutional capacity, a distributive political economy, and elite capture and predation. Traditional rentier state theory, centered primarily on the experiences of authoritarian, middle-income countries, holds that oil-rich regimes use their rents to secure political stability. By contrast, this paper argues that rentier practices can fuel rather than inhibit civil unrest in institutionally weaker developing countries. The causal pathway is demonstrated with field research-based process tracing of the case of Timor-Leste. There, the apparently benevolent distribution of petroleum rents has secured some dimensions of peace but has also activated new vectors of political instability. Moreover, the predatory capture by political–economic elites of an expanding rent share provokes societal grievance and potential instability on another front. Weak institutional capacity makes the state less able to deal with these elements of domestic unrest. A major implication of this research is that even where the other factors known to interact with oil wealth in fueling conflict are scarce, petroleum dependence itself could contribute to political instability as a result of the rentier effects it puts in motion.

Water and ‘imperfect peace’ in the Euphrates–Tigris river basin

Abstract Transboundary water relations in the Euphrates–Tigris (ET) basin are often marked by political confrontation and rivalry between Iraq, Syria and Turkey. Even in the absence of political stability, riparian states have remained in contact with one another over the ET rivers at different levels by establishing and revitalizing joint governance mechanisms. In these processes, multiple actors—ranging from bureaucracies and heads of state and government, to epistemic communities—have focused on cooperative socio-economic development aspects of otherwise divisive water-related matters in the basin. Hence, the article aims to examine various emerging actors and mechanisms, arguing that their co-existence in the basin demonstrates a case of ‘imperfect peace’. Since the invasion of Iraq in 2003 and with the start of the domestic unrest in Syria in 2011, transboundary water relations in the basin have been carried out within the context of an unstable international security environment, particularly with the emergence of the non-state armed groups who have used water as a weapon against their opponents. The article therefore addresses policy-relevant research questions, such as what kind of joint security mechanism the riparian states should create to cope with violent non-state actors who control water and infrastructure under the conditions of ‘imperfect peace’. In the same vein, the article analyses the strategic role that water plays in environmental peacebuilding and discusses the possible ways and means to improve the protection of water during and after armed conflicts.

Illiberal Norm Diffusion: How Do Governments Learn to Restrict Nongovernmental Organizations?

Abstract Recent decades have witnessed a global cascade of restrictive and repressive measures against nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). We theorize that state learning from observing the regional environment, rather than NGO growth per se or domestic unrest, explains this rapid diffusion of restrictions. We develop and test two hypotheses: (1) states adopt NGO restrictions in response to nonarmed bottom-up threats in their regional environment (“learning from threats”); (2) states adopt NGO restrictions through imitation of the legislative behavior of other states in their regional environment (“learning from examples”). Using an original dataset on NGO restrictions in ninety-six countries over a period of twenty-five years (1992–2016), we test these hypotheses by means of negative binomial regression and survival analyses, using spatially weighted techniques. We find very limited evidence for learning from threats, but consistent evidence for learning from examples. We corroborate this finding through close textual comparison of laws adopted in the Middle East and Africa, showing legal provisions being taken over almost verbatim from one law into another. In our conclusion, we spell out the implications for the quality of democracy and for theories of transition to a postliberal order, as well as for policy-makers, lawyers, and civil-society practitioners.

Roles, identity, and security: foreign policy contestation in monarchical Kuwait

The 2011–2012 Arab Spring posed an existential threat to the Gulf Cooperation Council’s six monarchies. A major response was the 2012 GCC Internal Security Pact, an innovative project to enhance cross-border repression of domestic opposition and thus bolster collective security. Yet despite its historic weakness, ongoing domestic unrest, and initial enthusiasm for the agreement, Kuwait’s monarchy did not ultimately ratify the accord. Building on theories of foreign policy roles and identity, this article presents an ideational explanation for this puzzle. The Security Pact failed because it sparked identity contestation. For many Kuwaitis, the prospect of the Sabah monarchy imposing this scheme for greater repression was incompatible with the regime’s historical role of tolerating domestic pluralism and protecting Kuwait from foreign pressures. This role conception of a tolerant protector flowed from historical understandings and collective memory and was cognitively tied to a national self-conception of “Kuwaiti-ness.” The mobilizational scope and symbolic power of this popular opposition convinced the regime to acquiesce, despite possessing the strategic incentive and resources to impose the treaty by force. The Kuwaiti case therefore exemplifies how domestic contestation over regime identities and roles can constrain foreign policy behavior, even in authoritarian states facing severe crises of insecurity.

Domestic Political Consequences of International Rivalry

Given the conventional claim that external threats increase internal cohesion and government capacity, cross-country studies have examined how interstate conflict events influence domestic politics. This article reevaluates the in-group and out-group mechanisms by examining how international strategic rivalry, which indicates the presence of persistent external threats even in the absence of military conflict, affects domestic political competition. An alternative explanation suggests that the effect of external threats on political incentives of domestic actors differs between regime supporters and oppositions. We posit that the presence of international threats from rival states inflames domestic unrest and oppositions’ antiregime challenges, while making governments rely more on repressive tactics given resource constraints and a high level of domestic political intolerance. In addition, we propose that the domestic consequences of international rivalry are heterogeneous depending on the characteristics of political systems and the level of threat perception. Empirical tests reveal robust evidence for the hypotheses.

The Domestic Political Unrest and the Military Doctrine Change in the Neighborhood: Arab Uprisings and Israel (2011–2015)

The “Arab Spring” uprisings are a historic milestone from Israel’s national security perspective, regarding to the political and security changes in the regional strategic environment, as Israel’s geographic neighboring, Egypt and Syria, have become more threatening. As a serious scientific attempt under the umbrella of the balance of power theory in the political science literature on military doctrine change, this paper aims to examine conditions under which a domestic political change or unrest in a state may affect, positively or negatively, the change of the military doctrine of another state or states in neighborhood. By applying this research question to the case of the Arab uprisings and Israel, the study examines, from Israeli elite’s perspective, why and how the aforementioned uprisings affect the Israeli military doctrine, and explores whether the particular components of this doctrine have been affected to the same degree. The study uses elite approach, and discourse analysis as key methodological tools. The general findings indicated that the Arab uprisings have strong and diversified impacts on the components of the Israeli military doctrine. These impacts may be compared to those of regional wars and military conflicts, as they have reshaped the map of security risks and threats.

Tiananmen Square, Leipzig, and the "Chinese Solution": Revisiting the Wende from an Asian-German Perspective

This article explores the transnational connection between China and the GDR in 1989 and views the student protests on Tiananmen Square in spring 1989 as a consequential precursor to German reunification. The SED's endorsement of the Chinese government's suppression and the East Germans' fear of a "Chinese solution" to looming domestic unrest aggravated the mass exodus in the summer and fall of 1989. Contrary to expectations, Leipzig, the center of protests in East Germany, did not become another Tiananmen on October 9. The military crackdown in Beijing ultimately served as a counterexample that helped to facilitate a peaceful revolution in East Germany.

Issues in Australian Foreign Policy

Issues in Australian Foreign Policy

Does Peacekeeping Reduce Violence? Assessing Comprehensive Security of Contemporary Peace Operations in Africa

Quantitative research evaluating the effect of peacekeeping operations usually links conflict abatement to the number of casualties in order to measure mission success. Such an approach is incomplete as security concerns extend far beyond the number of conflict related deaths. This narrow understanding of mission success leaves a significant assessment gap. Therefore this study is the first which presents comprehensive data using a wider understanding of violence and peace. We apply 11 indicators measuring security comprehensively. These range from the number of battle death, to violence against civilians, domestic unrest as well as domestic governance and political stability. In contrast to the mainstream quantitative literature our analysis shows that conflict often persists even with the deployment of peacekeepers. The absence of war (decline of battle death) does not automatically equate for non-violence and peace. In order to explain variation between cases we are also exploring the significance of different peacekeeping types, the size of developmental aid, rents from natural resources and the role of governance on conflict.

Prospects for Peace: The View from Beijing

One hundred years ago, on the eve of our entry into World War I, Americans faced a troubling set of developments at home and abroad that bear an eerie resemblance to today's challenges. While 21st-century home-grown terrorists are associated with the Muslim faith, at the dawn of the 20th century anarchists and leftists of European and, particularly, Jewish descent were committing acts of violence against innocent civilians on US soil. This period was the last time immigrants made up such a large proportion of the US population, and the country was riven not only by domestic unrest, but also by disagreement over whether to intervene in conflict on the other side of the ocean. Woodrow Wilson prevailed in the 1916 election on the platform, He kept us out of war, but ultimately, even the most cosmopolitan occupant of the Oval Office before President Obama could not avoid sending American troops to defend US allies and interests overseas. Then, as today, it was tempting to view the use of force through the prism of what it would mean for progressive American ideals. Opponents of intervening in World War I argued it would unleash nationalist, industrialist, profiteering tendencies at home, and thus the wise course was to refrain. Humanity would eventually converge on peace. Confronted with imperial Germany's ambition to conquer Europe, President Wilson had to disabuse his own supporters of the notion that international comity was on the march. And though Wilson propounded peace without victory, Americans would have to give their lives to oppose German expansionism, not once, but twice over the next two-and-a-half decades. At a time when domestic terrorism and tensions with immigrants appear to be returning to the fore, Americans would do well to remember this history. When we have turned inward in the face of domestic tensions and hoped international developments would go our way, we have been bitterly disappointed. While it is tempting to think we can retreat back within our borders and await the end of history, the other guys get a vote, and as it turns out they frequently have other plans. For this reason, it is important for national security planners to perform emulative analysis--to try to think like the decision-makers of our rivals or adversaries, who may not share our cosmopolitan, progressive ideals. The recent record suggests today, as in the World War I period, we may be so caught up in domestic deliberations--or what the president calls nation-building at home--we have neglected the emulative analysis mission. The shock of 9/11 can, in part, be traced to the paucity of national security professionals who had read and internalized the writings of terrorist groups like al-Qaeda. The missing nuclear arsenal of Saddam Hussein after the Second Gulf War seems to have reflected a perspective few, if any, American national security experts considered--Saddam was bluffing because he wanted his near enemies, the Shia, to believe he was nuclear-armed and assumed the United States had sufficient intelligence to understand this. And while the sinister creativity of Putin's Crimea incursion may have stymied even the most sincere effort at emulative analysis, it would be more reassuring today if we could look back and cite indicators we had been tracking, but had discounted. None of these episodes rises to the level of World War I, of course. We currently consider ourselves to be the beneficiaries of a long peace, one that has kept the world free of global conflict since the Korean War. But from 9/11 to Russia's forays into Ukraine and Syria, we have at least learned important lessons about taking seriously the perspectives of decision-makers from Raqqa and Baghdad to Moscow. We may not be so lucky with Beijing. Of all our global interlocutors, the People's Republic of China (PRC) seems most adept at employing a salami slicing or silkworm strategy; it is confronting our allies and partners in a way that does not breach the threshold of alarming us, even as the balance of power in contested areas, such as the South China Sea, now tilts in its favor. …