Explaining Russian state-sponsored disinformation campaigns: who is targeted and why?

Abstract

ABSTRACT In this paper, we empirically examine the explanations for the frequency of Russian disinformation attacks on countries in Europe or the countries that were formerly part of the Soviet Union from 2015 to 2021. Using negative binomial regression analysis, we find that disinformation attacks are most frequent when (1) a country was holding a national election in that year, and (2) if that country was experiencing significant political unrest. These findings demonstrate that Russian disinformation is primarily motivated by an interest in influencing election results and promoting domestic unrest in target countries.