Districts Bordering Research Articles

The Relationship of Lithology with Landslide Occurrences in Banyumanik and Tembalang Districts, Semarang City

Movement of soil and rock masses down the slope or known as landslide is a natural activity that can pose a danger to humans. Generally, landslide can be influenced by the slope, slope materials (rock/soil), and rainfall. Morphologically, the study area, which is located in the borders of Tembalang and Banyumanik Districts, Semarang City, is a hill that is quite steep. It has a potential to experience landslides. Landslide occurences at the study area do not always occur on steep slopes. Therefore, the aim of this study is to determine the relationship between the slope materials and the occurrences of landslide. Data was obtained through mapping to determine geological conditions and enlisting landslide occurrences at the study area. Furthermore, the correlation between the number of occurrences and the type of slope materials at the location of the ground motion was carried out using information value method. Based on geological mapping, 5 types of lithology were obtained, namely: alluvium, breccia, sandstone, siltstone, and claystone. Out of 10 landslides that were found, 6 of them occurred in claystone lithology. We interpret that landslide occurrences in study area are relating to the lithology claystone with information value 0.416. The claystone, a part of the Kerek Formation, physically were easily degraded. In addition, this lithology mostly found in open slopes, where the process of erosion by water is more intense.

GIS Integrated System for Internal Medicine and Transport Network: A Conceptual Framework of Control Spread of Emerging Infectious Diseases

Introduction: The spread of infectious disease in Africa is a major issue that demands the use for the most effective technology for its control and prevention. Geographical Information System (GIS) is an emerging technology with proven capacity to chart the spatial occurrence social phenomena, both statically and dynamically. GIS offers considerable advantages over the traditional cartographic methods from which it emerged. The purpose of this research paper is to explore and demonstrate the capability of GIS in measuring the spread and predicting infectious disease in developing countries and assisting (government) decision-makers in understanding and controlling the spread of communicable disease. Specifically, the aim is to establish an integrated framework for using GIS in epidemiological studies at the grassroots level. Methods: The paper based on the author previous published papers and review of the existing literature. Result: The data collection will center on the virus that has reached Lagos along the coast road from Accra in Ghana; Calabar from infected Cameroon to the east and arrived in the north via a "right hook" of long-distance trucking to Maiduguri. Thus, there is a need for the establishment of GPS base station in Lagos, Nigeria to improve accuracy and precision of satellite data collection through use of differential corrections. There is also a need to link clinical and HIV/AIDS databases to GPS database. The information required to support HIV/AIDS spread analysis can be generally classified into the following three categories :(a) transportation network (i.e. distance; average daily traffic; number of stops; etc.) (b) social/demographic factors (i.e. population; characteristics of HIV carriers/AIDS sufferers; the distance to school, hospitals, and other sensitive areas) (c) other geographical considerations (i.e. tribal affiliation; neighboring country.). The principal social/demographic factor that is operational in the referenced HIV/AIDS spread model is population. This is a GIS database of enumeration district centroids with attribute information, available through the National Population Centre and African AIDS Network. The enumeration district boundary file for each district will be established by drawing lines that bisect each adjacent enumeration district centroid. Through recursive use of this process, enumeration district borders will be shaped such that every district occupies a unique area surrounding its centroid, and collectively the district occupies the entire suburb area. Conclusions: The paper concludes that direct the nature and the geographical focus of control efforts carried out at the state or local government level, where these decisions are constrained by the limited resources for control programs, which are always a reality in developing countries. This integrated GIS is significance because it will provide an important opportunity for improved decision support for the educational interventions, health care delivery systems and management of infectious disease spread at the local, regional and national levels.

Pola Sebaran Permukiman Kumuh di Kabupaten Tangerang dan Keragaman Spasial Faktor yang Mempengaruhinya

Rapid development and high population density are among the factors that cause slum settlements Tangerang Regency. Factors that cause slum settlements in Tangerang Regency have not been identified specifically and the handling of slum settlements are still seen to be uniform between regions. The purpose of this research is to identify the pattern of distribution of slum settlements in Tangerang Regency and the spatial diversity of factors that influence it. Methods used to identify the distribution pattern of slums are Moran's Index, Moran's Scatterplot, and Local Indicator Spatial Autocorrelation. Meanwhile, to understand the spatial diversity of the factors that affect slum settlements, multiple regression analysis was performed using forward stepwise regression, followed by Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) analysis. Results shows that the pattern of spatial distribution of slum settlements in 2016 and 2018 was concentrated in the northern and southern areas of Tangerang Regency. The distribution pattern of slums shows a centered movement towards the district border with the surrounding areas, namely DKI Jakarta, Tangerang City, and South Tangerang City. The relationship between the Village Development Index and the Land Value Zone has a fairly weak positive correlation, the relationship between the Kelurahan Development Index and the percentage of slum area does not have a significant correlation, while the Land Value Zone with the percentage of slum area has a weak positive correlation. Slum settlements in Tangerang Regency are influenced by physical and non-physical factors including the number of slum location points, the percentage of residential buildings that do not have a building permit, and the percentage of areas affected by inundation. The results of the GWR analysis show that each factor that has a significant influence on slum settlements in Tangerang Regency has a different influence locally in each observed area.

Tangsa-Nocte as a Continuum: A diagnostic feature list for classification of varieties

Numerous languages of North East India are classified according to extralinguistic factors such as district and state borders or superficial similarities in culture. This has resulted in highly diverse language varieties — often with little or no mutual intelligibility — falling under a single label despite these considerable linguistic and cultural differences. Likewise, varieties which are closely related or lacking any meaningful differences may be classified as distinct entities, such as with the Phong variety which is classified as either Tangsa or as Nocte depending on the district in which the speaker resides.Based on an analysis of sound correspondences and lexical variation between varieties, this paper argues the case for treatment of Tangsa-Nocte not as two closely related branches within the Sal languages, as earlier classifications may suggest, but rather as a single dialect continuum.

Malaria Epidemiology Along the Indian Districts Bordering Bhutan and Implications for Malaria Elimination in the Region.

It is important for malaria-endemic countries to address malaria control across international borders, and in particular to prioritize appropriate rapid diagnosis, treatment and surveillance. Bhutan and India aim to achieve malaria elimination by 2023 and 2030 respectively. Malaria elimination along the Indo-Bhutan border is of common concern. We delineated malaria epidemiology along the border to provide a blueprint for focusing malaria control efforts in key foci within this region. Epidemiological data from 2015 to 2019 were analyzed, as the most drastic reductions in malaria burden across most parts of India were witnessed in this time frame. Several areas of concern include low surveillance in most border districts, favorable climatic conditions for perennial malaria transmission, and movement of potential parasite carriers because of the porous borders. India and Bhutan need to control the importation/exportation of malaria cases. We highlight the foci of concern for which implementing tailor-made malaria control strategies may benefit both countries.

Role of transport infrastructure in birth of census towns in West Bengal

In the Indian Census, the growth of villages into small towns (called Census Towns, CT) accounted for almost 30% of urbanization during 2001–11, which was significantly higher than the preceding decades. This paper evaluates the role of the transportation infrastructure in this phenomenon by using data from the State of West Bengal, which has experienced the birth of the largest number of such towns. We use the probit regression method involving binary dependent variables. The results show that the existence of state/national highways in the neighborhood increase the probability of a village, designated as a ‘would be CT’ in the 2001 Census, to be converted into a CT in the 2011 Census. The closer the location of the highway, the more intensive the positive effect. The rail infrastructure does not play a significant role in this process. Interestingly, the paper shows although the density of local road networks generally complements highways in the formation of cities, the complementarity relationship is the opposite in the districts bordering Kolkata. The role of the Golden Quadrangle (GQ) project, highway construction project undertaken in India during this time to connect the four major metropolitan cities of India, had a limited impact compared to national/state highways in the birth of CTs.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s41685-021-00224-5.

Deciphering Outbreaks of the Migratory Locust (Locusta Migratoria L.) (Orthoptera: Acrididae) With Their Management Strategies

The economic importance of locusts is well recognized throughout the world owing to their swarming behavior. The damage caused by hoppers on a small scale is mostly limited to local vegetation, primarily crops. Crop damage is overlooked, but it is tenacious in nature, and the effects they leave on planned systems, such as crop fields, are much more serious. Therefore, many taxa (genera or species) of the family Acrididae are considered as potential pests of farms, forests and even pastures. In general, the distribution of locusts decreases with increasing latitudes, i.e., Their occurrence increases towards the equator. When ecological conditions favour more plant growth and trigger more breeding, locusts can manage to aggregate in a huge voracious swarm and inflict damage to crops. When outbreaks of the migratory locust, Locusta migratoria L. arose in the southeastern part of Pakistan in the Sind, Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Minchinabad and Chistian adjoining districts bordering the eastern sides of India. As a result, further damage to crops and migration to other areas were prevented. Morphometric measurements indicated that the migrants had reached the body dimensions typical for gregarious forms. Drum and empty tin beating and pesticide application are both effective in managing locusts under field conditions. Swarms of adults landed on the grazing and farming lands of the country, specifically from Sind (Thar) to Chistian, Bahawalpur, Rahim yar khan, Minchinabad, Lodhran and adjacent districts in the region in November 2019, and caused substantial damage to agricultural crops and pastures. In the fall of 2019, numerous locusts suddenly swarmed in the affected areas, and thus, control was essential. The organochlorines are highly persistent and include dieldrin and HCH. These insecticides were the most favoured for locust control because of their efficacy, cost and persistence. Sprayed from land or aerial vehicles, whole swarms can be targeted in relatively short periods of time. Traditionally, the use of empty tin/drum was beaten to produce a loud sound that drove the locust away. The practices are cost effective and environmentally friendly.

Przestrzeń obowiązywania aktów prawa miejscowego po nowelizacji wprowadzonej ustawą z dnia 25 czerwca 2015 r. o zmianie ustawy o samorządzie gminnym oraz niektórych innych ustaw

The article deals with the spatial validity of acts of local law. Before the amendments introduced by the Acts of 25 June 2015 and 27 October 2017, the basic concept proposed by the representatives of doctrine with regard to the changes in the spatial validity of acts of local law was the concept of preserving the binding force of the acts of local law in force in a strictly defined area, i.e. local development plans. Other acts of local law were to expire. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that the amendments to both the Act of 8 March 1990 on Municipal Self-Government and the Act of 5 June 1998 on District Self-Government brought about the introduction of necessary regulations that had been awaited for many years – the legal gap in this area was filled with appropriate legal provisions. The article states that the legislator decided to adopt the model, according to which, in the case of mergers or changes in the borders of municipalities, acts of local law, as a rule, do not expire. The legislator took the position that such a solution does not conflict with the wording of Article 87 Paragraph 2 of the Constitution of the Republic of Poland, according to which the sources of generally binding law of the Republic of Poland are, in the area of activity of the authorities that established them, the acts of local law. The analysis of the amended regulations has proved that these new regulations have led to a solution to problems related to the validity of local acts of law in connection with the change of the area’s affiliation to a specific local government unit. Thus, it can be assumed that the amendments discussed here may lead to an acceleration and facilitation of processes related to mergers or changes in the borders of municipalities or districts.

The Effects of Foot and Mouth Disease in Yak and Cattle herds of Rasuwa District due to Climate Change

In the era of Climate Change, the paper spotlights the importance of managing the high-altitude range land management in Nepal’s northern Rasuwa district bordering the Tibetan plateau. It points to the important fact that policies and strategies need to be inclusive and intersectional with gender equality and social inclusion (GESI) as a vital principle of good governance. Such policies, inclusive governance and support to vulnerable transhumance herders will enhance adequate grass and fodder for yak, chauri, sheep and cattle and at the same time provide veterinary support leading to improved livelihoods for the entire communities. Yak herding is carried out by Tamang transhumance community and in the age of climate change; pasture management together with extension support from local government, is critical to provide additional income to the local communities. The paper examines risk factor, i.e., foot and mouth disease (FMD) and vital nutrient requirements in terms of good quality grass fodder. It also examines the role of customary headman called the “Chogo” who collectively with his “local counsel” facilitate, wise use of the region’s natural resources, i.e., water, irrigation, forest, agriculture and above all pasture land and mediates local conflicts.

Folate cycle genetics, level of homocysteine, thyroid and pituitary hormones in the blood among the children from the districts bordering the Chornobyl exclusion zone

Objective: The aim of the study was to identify interrelations between the state of folate cycle genetic apparatus and blood levels of homocysteine, thyroid and adenohypophysis hormones in the blood among the children from Ivankivskyi and Poliskyi districts, Kyiv region, bordering the Chornobyl exclusion zone (СhEZ). Methods: Immunochemical, genetic, statistical ones. Results: We measured blood levels of homocysteine (Hcy), pituitary thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), free triiodothyronine (T3), free thyroxine (T4) in 158 children from Poliskyi district and 178 children from Ivankivskyi district and assessed the state of a genetic system of the folate cycle (FC). The average age of the examined was (15.2 ± 0.9) years old (95% CI 15.0-15.4 years old). Taking into account the FC genotypes, genetic subgroups were formed, they were based on 100% representation of one specific genotype. The laboratory examination was carried out twice: in April and December 2015 (before and after the fires in the ChEZ). It was found out that in the total group of the children, as well as in most of analyzed genetic subgroups, the level of Hcy and thyroid hormones (TG) in the children from Ivankivskyi district was statistically significantly higher than in those from Poliskyi district. At the same time, a direct association between Hcy and TSH was observed in the total group, as well as in most of the genetic subgroups of children from Ivankivskyi district, and this ssociation was absent in the children from Poliskyi district. The blood level of Hcy both in the children from Poliskyi district and in the children from Ivankivskyi district was statistically significantly higher in the subgroup containing only homozygous variants of the T allele of the MTHFR:677 genetic polymorphism in comparison with the subgroups containing neutral C alleles of the same polymorphism. At the same time, there were no differences for TSH, T3 and T4. Сonclusions: The analysis enabled to establish a synchronous reaction of metabolic cycles ensuring the metabolism of Hcy and thyroid hormones in the adolescents, regardless of the FC genotypes. Correlation analysis, as well as the results of statistical analysis, indicate that an increase in the level of Hcy in the blood of children induced the synthesis of TSH and T3. The results show a close relationship between thyroid hormone genesis and the metabolism of methionine sulfur-containing amino acids and Hcy. A forest fire, containing long-lived radioactive elements, is the most likely reason for the increase of Hcy level and, as a result, the hormones of the pituitary-thyroid axis in the blood of the children living in the districts, bordering the ChEZ.

Kala-azar Burden in Bangladesh- An Overview

Kala-azar is one of the major public health problems in Bangladesh and the disease is endemic for many decades. In SEA Region, VL is reported from 109 contiguous districts bordering Bangladesh, India and Nepal. Approx. 147 million people at risk in these three countries with an estimated 50,000 new cases each year. Kala-azar or Leishmaniasis is a disease caused by protozoan parasites of the Leishmania genus. It is transmitted by the sand fly named Phlebotomus argentipes and affects largely the socially marginalized and the poorest communities. The parasite migrates to the internal organs such as liver, spleen and bone marrow and if left untreated, will almost always result in the death of the host. Signs and symptoms include fever, weight loss, fatigue, anemia, and substantial swelling of the spleen and occasionally liver. In Bangladesh, kala-azar cases were reported from 45 of 64 districts, >90% of cases were reported from just 10 districts. Mymensingh accounted for more than 50% of the total kala-azar cases reported in Bangladesh. Research in recent years has demonstrated the utility of non-invasive diagnostic modalities such as the direct agglutination test and rapid tests based on the immune response to the rK39 antigen. Primary kala-azar now can be easily recognized and effective treatment is available. Clinical trials in Bangladesh have reported encouraging results with amphotericin B (recommended as a third-line drug by the National Malaria Eradication Programme). Until a safe and effective vaccine is developed, a combination of sandfly control, detection and treatment of patients and prevention of drug resistance is the best approach for controlling kala-azar.
 CBMJ 2020 January: Vol. 09 No. 01 P: 43-50

Clinico-Epidemiological Profile of Patients with COVID-19 in a Tertiary Care Centre of Mid-Western Nepal

Introduction: With little to no research done that sheds light on the COVID-19 pandemic in the Mid-Western region of Nepal, this study attempts to educate the general populace and concerned authorities on the impact of the pandemic in the region.Materials and Methods: Patients presenting at Rapti Academy of Health Sciences between 14 May 2020 to December 21, 2020, diagnosed with COVID-19 were included in the study. These patients were reviewed for age, sex, address, recent travel history, and presenting symptoms.Results: A total of 3895 COVID -19 positive individuals were included in the study. The mean age of the patients was 33.6 ± 13.8 years, a majority (49.5%) of the cases were in the 20-29 years age group. 73.7% were male. 82.9% of the patients were from Dang, 86% of the cases of Dang were from urban areas, and the districts bordering India accounted for 88.5% of cases. Most of the positive patients were asymptomatic (97.1%), Amongst the symptomatic cases, the most frequent clinical manifestation was both fever and cough. 8.5% of the patients also reported travel history, of which a majority had returned from India.Conclusions: The patients were mostly young males belonging to the economically active age group who were mostly affected by COVID-19 in Mid-Western Nepal. It is important to carry out age-group targeted testing to flatten the infection curve. Testing must be done irrespective of observable symptoms to overcome this public health emergency.

Present Status and Progress towards Kala-Azar Elimination Programme in Uttar Pradesh, India

Kala-azar (KA) and Lymphatic Filariasis (LF), two out of the six vector borne diseases slated for elimination from the country by Government of India. Kala-azar or Visceral Leishmaniasisis prevalent in the eastern part of Uttar Pradesh mainly in the districts bordering to Bihar, the state known for high endemicity of the disease. This disease has been targeted for elimination not only from thestate butfrom the country by 2020 by bringing down the Kala-azar prevalenceto <1 per 10000 population at sub district/block level. The two important interventions in Kala-azar control Programme includes Indoor residual spray (IRS) and Active Case Searches (ACS) in the endemic districts. The disease has been existed since long back in the state and the efforts made towards elimination are inadequate and deviated from the guidelines laid down by Directorate of National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme (NVBDCP).If the population of the sub district/ block is considered basic unit for calculating the prevalence of Kala-azar case<1 per 10000 population, then the state has achieved the same and as no activity pertaining to Kala-azar intervention measure is needed but in order to achieve the real target, it is suggested to consider the population of Health Sub-Center (HSC) for calculating the parameter of Kala-azar case <1 per 10000 population, for which a long way is required by undertaking measures like (a) active cases search drive for at least up to three years sweeping the whole population of the district, (b) complete treatment of the KA cases (both VL & PKDL), (c) complete coverage of population with IRS following the time line and quality of IRS as per NVBDCP guidelines, and (d) intervention activities needs to be synchronized with neighboring states or country subjecting their areas for KA elimination. Present study revealed the current status and progress towards elimination of the disease.

COVID 19 Disease: Effects on Health of Children

COVID-19 disease outbreak was first reported in Wuhan china and was later reported to have spread throughout the world. As a global pandemic declared by WHO in march 2020 as of dated 24th December infected patients are 74.4million and recovered 44.3million and deaths are 1.73million . This is an global emergency which forced people to go into lockdown this lockdown helped to reduce the virus lode but it also caused many consequences like it affected children far from parents and families migrated for work because of restriction for social gathering all school , colleges ,offices ,industries are shut down this made peoples to lost their jobs and also give rise to trend of work from home and study from home entire education system is now online .according to UNICEF nearly 1.5 billion children out school and some 99%children are living with restriction on movement. this isolation has caused many disruption in daily routine of every single person not only economically poor but also economically sound are also suffered .some of the working peoples lost their job and those who travelled to metro cities lost their source of income and they have to leave these cities and return to their native places because of lockdown all the district borders are closed which land them in great trouble .also they don’t have any transportation so most of the people travel by walking which made lots of adult and also children suffer because of dehydration and fatigue many suffered this also land in death of many migrants and this include some of the children .this huge migration of people from their work place to villages made impact on minds of children they have to go through lot of trouble during this travel which may cause mental trauma for them and adjusting in new life in their village is difficult for them. Halted vaccination program has impacted child health and increase chance of vaccine preventable disease . children already suffering from diseases like mental diseases has lost access to physician this impacted adversely their treatment .also blood disorders in children who require regular blood transfusion are under danger during this pandemic . the pandemic has huge impact on health care system because of increased work strain .this halted the pediatric health care .

The disaster task force medical officer as apivotal decision maker in the superordinate pandemic hospital capacity management : Afield report covering the initial COVID-19 surge in aBavarian district

Hintergrund und ZielsetzungVon März bis Juni 2020 hatte Bayern die erste Welle der SARS-CoV-2-Pandemie zu bewältigen.Material und MethodenEs werden Erfahrungen mit der Steuerung der stationären Behandlungskapazitäten für COVID-19-Patienten durch die Ärztlichen Leiter der Führungsgruppen Katastrophenschutz (ÄL-FüGK) und den Ärztlichen Bezirksbeauftragten Rettungsdienst (ÄBRD) in der Oberpfalz im Kontext des Notfallplan Corona-Pandemie der bayerischen Staatsregierung dargestellt.ErgebnisseDurch Einstellen des Routineprogramms und Aufbau zusätzlicher Beatmungsbetten wurden Intensivkapazitäten geschaffen, welche insbesondere im Rettungsdienstbereich (RDB) Nordoberpfalz kurzfristig annähernd ausgelastet waren. Bei sich abzeichnendem Verlegungsbedarf von Intensivpatienten wählten die ÄL-FüGK bzw. der ÄBRD Zielkliniken im Sinne von Verlegungskorridoren aus. Dies erfolgte in drei eskalierenden Stufen: auf lokaler Ebene (RDB), auf regionaler Ebene (Regierungsbezirk) und auf überregionaler Ebene (zwischen Regierungsbezirken). Als Datengrundlage wurde u. a. die tägliche Bettenmeldung der Kliniken herangezogen. Normalstationskapazitäten waren stets frei, sodass Hilfskrankenhäuser nicht in Betrieb genommen werden mussten. Zum Schutz von Pflegeeinrichtungen verhängte die Staatsregierung einen Aufnahmestopp. Während des Abebbens der ersten Welle konnte die Routineversorgung schrittweise wieder aufgenommen werden.DiskussionDie Steuerung der Patientenströme lehnte sich weitgehend an die Abläufe des Normalbetriebs an, was Abläufe verschlankte und Handlungsfähigkeit sicherstellte. Vereinzelt wurden Schnittstellenprobleme zu anderen Regierungsbezirken beobachtet, welche andere Managementgrundsätze verfolgten. Der Aufnahmestopp für Pflegeeinrichtungen und widerstreitende finanzielle Interessen der Klinikbetreiber stellten die ÄL-FüGK vor Herausforderungen.

The Political Boundaries of Ethnic Divisions

We use a policy experiment in Indonesia to show how local political boundaries affect ethnic tension. Redrawing district borders along group lines reduces conflict. However, the gains in stability are undone or even reversed when new boundaries increase ethnic polarization. Greater polarization leads to more violence around majoritarian elections but has little effect around lower-stakes, proportional representation elections. These results point to distinct incentives for violence in winner-take-all settings with contestable public resources. Overall, our findings illustrate the promise and pitfalls of redrawing borders in diverse countries where it is infeasible for each group to have its own administrative unit. (JEL D72, D74, J15, O15, O17, O18)

Economic Valuation of Backyard Duck Rearing in the Border Covering District Households of Vembanad Lake – Market Price Approach

The Vembanad lake provides various provisional services which are directly used for consumption through various means like fishing, aquaculture, paddy cultivation, duck farming etc. In this study, the economic valuation of duck rearing activities practiced by the 30 sample households situated in around three districts bordering Vembanad lake namely Ernakulam, Alappuzha and Kottayam districts were used for the estimation. This study used to estimate the economic value generated by duck rearing using market price method was about INR 27.62 crores, out of which the value generated from the egg and duck (meat) was about INR 15.43 and INR 12.18 crores respectively. In the process of estimation used the variable from the sample household as such as number of ducks reared, egg produced annually and selling price of duck egg and meat in local markets.

COVID-19 does not stop at open borders: Spatial contagion among local authority districts during England's first wave.

Infectious diseases generate spatial dependence or contagion not only between individuals but also between geographical units. New infections in one local district do not just depend on properties of the district, but also on the strength of social ties of its population with populations in other districts and their own degree of infectiousness. We show that SARS-CoV-2 infections during the first wave of the pandemic spread across district borders in England as a function of pre-crisis commute to work streams between districts. Crucially, the strength of this spatial contagion depends on the phase of the epidemic. In the first pre-lockdown phase, the spread of the virus across district borders is high. During the lockdown period, the cross-border spread of new infections slows down significantly. Spatial contagion increases again after the lockdown is eased but not statistically significantly so.

Show issue Year 12/2012 Volume 2020 Issue 34 Regional Correction of The Flis-Słomczyński-Stolicki Formula: The Case of Turkish Elections

This paper proposes a correction to the Flis-Słomczyński-Stolicki (2019, 2020) formula for countries with large variation among their districts in terms of political divisions. The Flis-Słomczyński-Stolicki formula (FSS formula) estimates seat allocations under the Jefferson-D’Hondt method by using national vote shares, as well as other parameters that are often readily available. However, the FSS formula does not yield precise estimates in those countries where there are independent candidates, special rights assigned to minority parties, signifi cant variation in district sizes, or an unequal distribution of votes due to ethnic or other regional divisions. Hence, I propose dividing the national distribution of votes into regions that satisfy the assumptions of the FSS formula within their district borders. By applying the FSS formula to regions consisting of historically and politically homogenous districts, I demonstrate that the formula’s estimates become signifi cantly more precise. For instance, by applying the regional correction to the 2018 Turkish Parliamentary elections, as well as other Turkish elections between 2007 and 2015, I show that the formula with the correction in three separate regions improves the Loosemore-Hanby goodness of fi t estimates from 2.1 to 3.41 percentage points (95% CI). Thus, the correction might signifi cantly improve the estimates of the FSS formula in various countries, including Spain, Peru, and Belgium.

Сравнительный анализ двух подходов к крупномасштабному картографированию лесной растительности в Южном Нечерноземье России

The results of the comparative analysis of traditional forest typology data and the data of floristic classification by the J. Braun-Blanquet approach for large-scale mapping of forest vegetation from the Southern Nechernozemye of Russia are presented. 3 model forest areas located in the forestries in borders of different botanic-geographical districts with specific climatic and edaphic conditions have been chosen to make the comparative analysis of cartographic materials (Bryansk and Smolensk Regions). A comparison of existing afforestation plans and created geobotanical maps demonstrates the difference in the number of recognized typological units. In all cases, a smaller number of units are noted for the geobotanical maps with a scale 1 : 25 000. A decrease in the number of typological units can be explain by the lack of information on the age of tree stands. Another reason is, probably, the assignment of some forest stands with the predominance of different indigenous species to a single association. However, the same typological units, distinguished by the predominance of tree species, may correspond to different units of floristic classification, which may increase the number of typological units on the geobotanical map. Some features of the Braun-Blanquet approach such as the allocation of units, primarily based on a comparison of the floristic composition of plant communities, allows attributing both natural stands and forest cultures to a single syntaxon. This also reduces the number of typological units on the geobotanical map. The plans of afforestation show the present-day species composition and the age of the studied stands, but the dynamic interrelations of forest communities are not reflected there. Therefore, it is more effective to reflect the dynamics of vegetation of forest communities in accordance with the methodology adopted when creating geobotanical maps. In this case, the succession state of communities and their links to classification units of higher ranks has been taken into account by the allocation of temporary facies with the predominance of small-leaved species at the site of indigenous broad-leaved or coniferous forests. The deductive approach with the identification of non-rank «communities» also makes it possible to separate into separate syntaxa and time-unstable, unformed or poorly floristic communities. Typically, such forests are formed by coniferous cultures in the zone of deciduous forests. The unformed «semi-forest» communities in the lowland swamps are also placed into the same category. They are often formed after felling, initiating or intensifying bogging under conditions of fluctuating moisture. The use of a single colorimetric scheme for forest stands in different climatic and edaphic conditions, reflected in the TLU (forest conditions) system, can be considered not quite correct. Stands with the predominance of the same species can correspond to different zonal-conditioned TLUs. At the same time, communities of some syntaxomomical taxa of floristic classification can be formed in different TLUs and their diversity corresponds to the width of the ecological amplitude of the types of plant communities. The more stenotopic communities, the smaller number of TLUs corresponding to their habitats. The afforestation plans and geobotanical maps can be used by different ways in forestry. The traditional afforestation plans are widely used in forestry planning. However, the geobotanical map supplemented with information on the dynamic relationships of stands allows making more efficient prediction of scenarios of forest stand development under known forest conditions. In addition, cartographic materials on the proposed geobotanical basis reflect the general botanical and geographical trends of vegetation, and the syntaxa of the floristic classification always have a certain chorological content, thus, they can be used as zonal-climatic indicators. This feature is reflected in their compliance with TLU, which are specifically distinguished for different natural zones.