Discounted Cash Flow Valuation Models Research Articles

Research on the Impact of Logistics and E-commerce on JD.com

ESG (Environment, Social, and Governance) considerations take significant weight in valuing a company for investors. They are essential to show each company’s growth and sustainability. As the generations change, more and more companies take ESG seriously and start advancing their products to gain more customers and build a sustainable brand image. In this report, ESG is primary factor in evaluating of JD.Com Inc. In the annual report of JD.Com Inc., it can be seen that there are three main segments of the operating income period, and two business segments account for the main part. Therefore, in this report, people will analyze the basic competitive situation of the two business sectors of the company and the judgment of competitive strategy respectively through Porter's Five Forces model. Analyze whether JD.Com Inc. is a company on the rise, the industry, and future prospects. This company belongs to an industry with highly predictable cash flow, so in this report, discounted cash flow valuation model (DCF model) will be used to analyze JD.Com Inc. Whether is at a reasonable valuation price.

Bankruptcy Risk in Discounted Cash Flow Equity Valuation

We investigate the importance of bankruptcy risk in discounted cash flow (DCF) equity valuation. Our analyses first show how bankruptcy risk is incorporated in DCF valuation, where investment risk is captured by cash flow certainty equivalents. Within this general setting, we find that bankruptcy risk can be captured by discounting factors incorporating period-specific bankruptcy probabilities, allowing the numerators in a DCF valuation model to follow a binary random walk. Elaborating a model of this kind, we assess the value of the equity holders’ limited liability right (the equity holders’ right to hand over the firm to its creditors if bankruptcy occurs). Two valuation models commonly used in academic research and professional practice—the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) and the Residual Income Valuation (RIV) model—are addressed specifically. Our analyses show that bankruptcy probabilities are important for the estimation of the value drivers in both models. Even if bankruptcy probabilities are as low as 0.02, equity values might be severely exaggerated if bankruptcy risk is ignored in DDM or RIV. In particular, this holds for firms expected to have high future growth (conditioned on firm survival). For the RIV model to properly capture bankruptcy risk, we identify “bankruptcy event accounting principles” and an additional term that must be included in the model. We also show that bankruptcy risk under certain conditions can be handled through a specific calibration of the discounting rate/-s in all DCF models, allowing the value drivers—i.e., future dividends or residual income—to be forecasted conditioned on firm survival.

A synthesized distribution model: Asymmetric information, agency problem, and intertemporal optimization

A firm’s policy of distribution over current and future time periods influences the capital structure of the firm and its profitability. Managers decide on the amount of effort input in such a context of financial structure to maximize their utility. Nevertheless, shareholders’ preferred distribution of income is determined by the goal of corporate value maximization. The study aims to reach an optimal level of income distribution and reinvestment over current and future periods in which both the manager’s utility and shareholders’ corporate value have been maximized. The study adopts Lagrange’s multipliers method and the discounted cash flow valuation model of corporate value maximization. By processing a method of mathematical deduction and optimization, the study aims to reach an optimal equilibrium level of the dividend distribution model and explore key factors in the model for the determination of the distribution of income. As a result, the study concluded an optimal dividend distribution model, in which six factors jointly determine a theoretical equilibrium of optimization. These factors consist of the capital structure of the firm, the tax shield from debt financing, the growth rate of the dividend, dividend tax, the investment strategy of the principal, and the cost of capital.

Firming merchant renewable generators in Australia’s National Electricity Market

Global decarbonisation is driving investments in intermittent renewable generation, with most plant entering the market by way of a Power Purchase Agreement. In Australia’s National Electricity Market, a surprising number of renewable generators have entered on a merchant basis. To maintain tractable revenues some minimum level of hedging is required, but in an energy-only electricity market with a very high market price cap, merchant intermittent generators require some level of associated firming capacity to ensure spot price exposures can be adequately managed. This article uses unit commitment, battery arbitrage and stochastic discounted cashflow valuation models to compare an Open Cycle Gas Turbine and a battery as firming options for a hypothetical wind farm in the South Australian region of the NEM. Using historic market data from 2010–2020, we find OCGT firming capacity helps the wind farm to generate consistent net cash flows, allowing it to withstand the highs and lows of spot market prices whilst covering required contract-for-difference payments associated with hedging. When battery firming is deployed, the wind farm/ battery portfolio generated higher cash flows at specific times, reflecting participation in price arbitrage under low spot price scenarios. However, battery performance was constrained by costly storage capacity.

A Petrobras após os escândalos de corrupção da operação Lava-Jato: uma análise do valor da empresa até 2016

A corrupção no setor público e privado pode provocar prejuízos sociais e econômicos para países e empresas. No Brasil, a corrupção tem sido bastante discutida, e diversos casos nas esferas públicas e privadas foram observados nos últimos anos. A operação Lava-Jato é um exemplo recente que recebe destaque pela mídia e pela população. Neste caso, a Polícia Federal investiga corrupção e lavagem de dinheiro envolvendo diversos agentes públicos e privados e a empresa Petrobras. Desde o início das investigações em 2014, a petroleira que é uma das principais empresas do Brasil, enfrenta crise econômica, política e moral. Utilizando o modelo de avaliação do Fluxo de Caixa Descontado, em três cenários de projeção com taxas de atratividade distintas, o presente artigo tem como objetivo mensurar o valor da Petrobras após a deflagração dos escândalos de corrupção apontados pela operação Lava-Jato até 2016. A pesquisa encontrou como resultado em todos os três cenários avaliados um valor de empresa reduzido durante o período de projeção e uma recuperação modesta no período residual. Portanto, a corrupção afetou negativamente o valor da Petrobras.

Discontinuous financing based on market values and the value of tax shields

The tax shield as present value of debt-related tax savings plays an important role in firm valuation. Driving the risk of future debt levels, the firm’s strategy to adjust the absolute debt level to future changes of the firm value, labeled as (re-) financing policy, affects the value of tax shields. Standard discounted cash flow (DCF) models offer two simplified (re-) financing policies originally introduced by Modigliani and Miller (MM) as well as Miles and Ezzell (ME). In this paper, we introduce a discontinuous financing policy that refers to the refinancing intervals, i.e., the maturity structure of the firm’s debt. By deriving APV valuation and beta unlevering equations that allow for this discontinuous financing policy, we show the MM and ME policies to be special cases of the proposed extension. While we document the effect of discontinuous refinancing to be economically significant when leverage is high and refinancing periods are extremely long, our results suggest that for low-levered firms with short refinancing periods, the traditional continuous refinancing-based models (like the Miles/Ezzell model) produce relatively robust value estimates. Combining capital structure and maturity structure choices, our model extends the set of feasible financing policies in DCF valuation models.

What is Behind the Figures? Conceptual Mistakes in the Equity Valuations Prepared by Research Analysts in Poland

By their nature, corporate valuations are partially built on analysts’ opinions, and not only on objective facts. However, it is of primary importance for equity research to be grounded on sound economic theory and existing methodological conventions. Otherwise, an inherent element of subjectivity may degrade into the complete arbitrariness of the assumptions underlying the valuation model. This paper covers conceptual mistakes which may appear in the calculation of the residual value in discounted cash flow valuation models prepared by sell-side equity analysts. In particular, we have analysed some of the essential postulates underlying the estimation of the perpetual growth rate. Our study covering 100 randomly selected investment recommendations prepared by equity research analysts in Poland, shows that these postulates are not adhered to in most cases. Flawed input data translate into the implied company’s fundamentals devoid of economic sense. Unrealistic assumptions underlying valuation models question the credibility of investment recommendations and prompt the discussion over the factors shaping the investment decisions of the market participants.

A New Perspective on Analyst Sophistication: Errors and Dubious Judgments in Analystss DCF Valuation Models

We investigate the number of and reasons for errors and questionable judgments that sell-side equity analysts make in constructing and executing discounted cash flow (DCF) equity valuation models. For a sample of 120 DCF models detailed in reports issued by U.S. brokers in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that analysts make a median of three theory-related and/or execution errors and four questionable economic judgments per DCF. Recalculating analysts’ DCFs after correcting for major errors changes analysts’ mean valuations and target prices by between −2% and 14% per error. Based on face-to-face interviews with analysts and those who oversee them, we conclude that analysts’ DCF modeling behavior is semi-sophisticated in the sense that analysts genuinely make mistakes regarding certain aspects of correctly valuing equity but also respond rationally to the incentives they face, particularly the reality that they are not directly compensated for being textbook DCF correct.

(Re-)Financing Policies and the Value of Debt-Related Tax Shields

The tax shield as present value of debt-related tax savings plays an important role in firm valuation. Driving the risk of future debt levels, the firm's strategy to adjust the absolute debt level to future changes of the firm value, labeled as (re-) financing policy, affects the value of tax shields. Standard discounted cash flow (DCF) models offer two simplified (re-) financing policies originally introduced by Modigliani and Miller (MM) as well as Miles and Ezzell (ME). In this paper we show that both policies are special and polar cases of a general model of financing policies referring to the firm's choice of debt refinancing intervals. We derive general valuation and cost of capital equations allowing flexibly incorporating any refinancing sequence. By combining capital structure and maturity structure choices our model extends the set of feasible financing policies in DCF valuation models.

Practical Applications of Tesla: Anatomy of a Run-Up

In their award-winning research, <b>Bradford Cornell</b> and <b>Aswath Damodaran</b> show how the massive run up in <b>TeslaMotors’</b> stock price was not supported by fundamental factors and that investor sentiment played a role. They implement a discounted cash flow valuation model to reach this conclusion. The model is outlined in detail in their article, <b><i>Tesla: Anatomy of a Run-Up</i></b>, in <b><i>The Journal of Portfolio Management</i></b>. It was named Outstanding Article in the <b><i>16th Annual Bernstein Fabozzi/Jacobs Levy Awards</i></b>. In this report, Cornell and Damodaran discuss their fascination with how the markets work (or don’t work) and suggest a trading strategy for investors who believe Tesla is overvalued and have the stomach for high risk.

Tesla: Anatomy of a Run-Up

This article presents a detailed anatomy of the nearly seven-fold run-up in the price of Tesla stock between March 22, 2013 and February 26, 2014, and attempts to determine the role played by investor sentiment. Tesla offers a unique opportunity in this context because the run-up was on the order of magnitude experienced by some of the most volatile technology stocks, but Tesla operates in an industry—automotive manufacturing—and a potential industry—battery construction—that are mature and populated by established competitors. This makes it possible to construct discounted cash flow valuation models that are anchored to established fundamentals. On the basis of these models, in conjunction with a detailed event study and analysis of institutional stock holdings and short-sales data, the authors conclude that the run-up cannot be explained as a rational reaction to fundamental information. Instead, they conclude that, at the end of the run-up, the stock was overvalued by approximately 150%. In their view, the case study provides support for the assertion by Lawrence Summers that price and rational value can diverge significantly for prolonged periods of time.

VALUE INFLUENCING MECHANISM OF GREEN CERTIFICATES IN THE DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW VALUATION

The market value of green properties is already acknowledged in scientific literature, but it has still remained unclear how green certificates are incorporated into property valuation. In this study, value influencing mechanism of green certificates in property investment is studied. A widely used discounted cash flow (DCF) model for property valuation was constructed and communicated with spreadsheet to industry professionals for valuing an office property in metropolitan Finland. The goal was to understand the value influencing mechanism and even deeper to identify the differences in DCF parameters between certified properties and non-certified properties. The results show that a green certificate increases on average the property value with 9.0% in the DCF valuation model. Improved yield and net rental income were the main reasons for the higher property value. Interestingly, this is the first known study to empirically open the value influencing mechanisms of green properties presented in earlier theoretical studies.

Tesla: Anatomy of a Run-Up Value Creation or Investor Sentiment?

This paper presents a detailed anatomy of the nearly sevenfold run-up in the price of Tesla stock between March 22, 2013 and February 26, 2014 with the goal of attempting to determine the role played by investor sentiment. Tesla offers a unique opportunity in this context because the run-up was on the order of magnitude experienced by some of the most volatile technology stocks, but Tesla operates in an industry, automotive manufacturing, and a potential industry, battery construction, that are mature and are populated by established competitors. This makes it possible to construct discounted cash flow valuation models that are anchored on established fundamentals. On the basis of these models, in conjunction with a detailed event study and analysis of institutional stock holdings and short sales data, we conclude that the run-up cannot be explained as a rational reaction to fundamental information. Instead, we conclude that at the end of the run-up the stock was overvalued by approximately 150 percent. In our view, the case study provides support for Summers assertion the price and rational value can diverge significantly for prolonged periods of time.

Assessing Alternative Financial Restructuring Strategies, A Note

In this note I develop a simple discounted cash flow valuation model, which allows practitioners to assess the value of different financial restructuring proposals upon financial distress. Optimal capital structure is introduced into the analysis based on static trade off arguments. Simple algebra leads to company, equity and debt valuation with easily obtainable parameters.

A Behavioral Approach To Derive The Cost Of Equity Capital For Small Closely Held Firms

The purpose of this research is to explore the theoretical structure that underlies the valuation process for small closely held firms. All discounted cash flow valuation models require an estimate of a firm’s weighted average cost of capital as well as the firm’s component cost of equity capital. The CAPM is frequently employed to measure the cost of equity capital for a publicly traded firm. A publicly held firm’s common stock price is determined in the capital markets and is readily available. The firm’s stock price can then be used to estimate its beta; a necessary input to the CAPM. Because there is no information about stock prices, the task of estimating the cost of equity for a closely held firm is more challenging. The build-up model is frequently used to calculate the cost of equity for the closely held firm. However there is much controversy over this model’s assumptions, reliability and validity. Specifically, this research critiques the build-up model identifying its advantages and its liabilities. The purpose of this work is to create discussion and stimulate economists to study and improve this important area. Additionally, this study offers a new economic model to estimate the cost of equity capital that is theoretically correct easy to understand

Quantifying Risk When Using the Income Approach

Risk, in a financial sense, is defined as variance about some forecasted value. Any time a business appraiser forecasts future cash flows of any sort, these future value estimates are actually means of all likely cash flows in that particular year. The same holds true with discount rate estimates. Several software products allow an analyst to simulate variable future cash flows and/or discount rates but they all require the forecasting of a mean figure, its standard deviation or variance, the shape of its distribution and the correlation coefficients between all variables involved. Usually, accurately estimating most of these data are impossible in a business valuation context. This article presents a simplified method of developing an actual risk measure (standard deviation) that may be used with discounted cash flow valuation models.

The Value of Transparency and the Cost of Complexity

It is clear that some firms are more forthcoming about their financial affairs than other firms, and that the financial statements of a few firms are designed to obscure rather than reveal information. While differences in accounting standards across countries was viewed as the primary culprit for this lack of transparency until recent years, the convergence in accounting standards globally has made it clear that no matter how strict accounting standards are, firms will continue to use their discretionary power to spin and manipulate the numbers that they convey to financial markets. The questions we face in valuation are significant ones. How do we reflect the transparency (or the opacity) of a firm's financial statements in its value? Should we reward firms that have simpler and more open financial statements and punish firms that have complex and difficult-to-understand financial statements? If so, which input in valuation should be the one that we adjust? This paper begins by examining the phenomenon of opacity in financial statements and why some firms choose to be opaque. It follows up by considering some of the empirical evidence on whether markets discount the value of complex firms to reflect the difficult faced in valuing them. It closes by evaluating some of the ways in which we can adjust discounted cash flow valuation models for this difficulty.

Sensitivity analysis in investment project evaluation

This paper discusses the sensitivity analysis of valuation equations used in investment decisions. Since financial decision are commonly supported via a point value of some criterion of economic relevance (net present value, economic value added, internal rate of return, etc.), we focus on local sensitivity analysis. In particular, we present the differential importance measure (DIM) and discuss its relation to elasticity and other local sensitivity analysis techniques in the context of discounted cash flow valuation models. We present general results of the net present value and internal rate of return sensitivity on changes in the cash flows. Specific results are obtained for a valuation model of projects under severe survival risk used in the industry sector of power generation.

Three Residual Income Valuation Methods and Discounted Cash Flow Valuation

In this paper we show that the Residual Income models for equity valuation always yield the same value as the Discounted Cash Flow Valuation models. We use three residual income measures: Economic Profit, Economic Value Added (EVA) and Cash Value Added. We also show that economic profit and EVA are different, although Copeland, Koller and Murrin (2000, page 55) say that economic profit is a synonym of EVA. Specifically, we first show that the present value of the Economic Profit discounted at the required return to equity plus the equity book value equals the value of equity. The value of equity is the present value of the Equity cash flow discounted at the required return to equity. Then, we show that the present value of the EVA discounted at the WACC plus the enterprise book value (equity plus debt) equals is the enterprise market value. The enterprise market value is the present value of the Free cash flow discounted at the WACC. Then, we show that the present value of the Cash Value Added discounted at the WACC plus the enterprise book value (equity plus debt) equals is the enterprise market value. The enterprise market value is the present value of the Free cash flow discounted at the WACC.

Is the Response of Analysts to Information Consistent with Fundamental Valuation? The Case of Intel

This paper examines the market reaction to a press release issued by Intel on Thursday, September 21, 2000. In response to that release, Intel’s stock price dropped 30%, erasing over $120 billion of shareholder wealth. By analyzing the press release in conjunction with analyst reports, and by using a discounted cash flow valuation model, I argue that the information conveyed by the announcement was not sufficient to explain the stock price drop. Surprisingly, analysts were more strongly recommending purchase of the stock in August 2000 at $75 than in September 2000 at $40. This suggests a positive feedback between stock price movements and analyst recommendations that may increase the volatility of prices.