Sensitivity analysis in investment project evaluation

Abstract

This paper discusses the sensitivity analysis of valuation equations used in investment decisions. Since financial decision are commonly supported via a point value of some criterion of economic relevance (net present value, economic value added, internal rate of return, etc.), we focus on local sensitivity analysis. In particular, we present the differential importance measure (DIM) and discuss its relation to elasticity and other local sensitivity analysis techniques in the context of discounted cash flow valuation models. We present general results of the net present value and internal rate of return sensitivity on changes in the cash flows. Specific results are obtained for a valuation model of projects under severe survival risk used in the industry sector of power generation.