Delta Project Research Articles

Bangladesh's pathways to climate-resilient development: A methodical review

Climate resilient development pathways (CRDP) are procedures that reinforce sustainable development and reduce poverty and inequalities while meeting adaptation and mitigation targets. The study systematically assessed Bangladesh's efforts to combat climate change and evaluated its progress toward CRDP with a degree of confidence approach. It also assessed climate change vulnerability, national climate change plans and policies, climate finance conditions, and environmental sustainability. The study revealed that the recent climate change plans and strategies have transformative, social inclusiveness, gender responsiveness, climate resilience, institutional flexibility and coordination, and target setting and monitoring attributes from a moderate to large extent. However, to implement its recently developed climate plans like the Mujib Climate Prosperity Plan, Delta Plan, NAP, and NDC, where funding is essential—the nation needs USD 533.7 billion. The study suggests that though the country has implemented several plans and strategies in recent decades, uneven progress has appeared in some important socio-economic and environmental indicators as well as SDGs which signifies low return against investment. It can be concluded that ensuring maximum socio-economic and environmental return on investment, long-term climate finance, strengthening local govt. organizations, adopting region specific and holistic approaches with private sector engagement would advance CRDP attainment as well as a nature positive economy and system transition in Bangladesh.

An Integrated Approach for the Climate Change Impact Assessment on the Water Resources in the Sangu River Basin, Bangladesh, under Coupled-Model Inter-Comparison Project Phase 5

The Sangu River basin significantly contributes to national economy significantly; however, exposures to water-related hazards are frequent. As it is expected that water-related disasters will increase manifold in the future due to global warming, the Government of Bangladesh has formulated the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 (BDP-2100) to enhanced climate resilience. Accordingly, this study assessed the hydro-meteorological characteristics of the Sangu River basin under the changing climate. This study scientifically selected five General Circulation Models (GCMs) to include the model climate sensitivity and statistically bias-corrected their outputs. The Water and Energy Budget-based Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (WEB-RRI) model was used to simulate the hydrological responses of the basin. The analysis of five GCMs under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) revealed that all selected GCMs estimate a 2–13% increase in annual rainfall and a 3–12% increase in annual discharge in the near-future (2025–2050), whereas four GCMs project an 11–52% increase in annual rainfall and a 7–59% increase in annual discharge in the far-future (2075–2100). The projected more frequent and intense increased extreme rainfall and flood occurrences in the future indicate an increase in flood disaster risk, whereas increased meteorological and hydrological drought in the future reflects a scarcity of water during dry periods. The number of projected affected people shows an increasing trend due to the increased inundation in the future. However, an increasing trend of transpiration indicates agricultural productivity will increase in the future. Policymakers can utilize this evidence-based information to implement BDP-2100 and to reduce the disaster risks in the basin.

Assessment of International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) Assisted Livelihood Improvement Family Enterprise Niger Delta (LIFE-ND) project in Bayelsa State, Nigeria

This study assessed the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) Assisted Livelihood Improvement Family Enterprise Niger Delta (LIFE-ND) Project in Bayelsa State. Specifically, the objectives were to: identify the socio-economic characteristics of LIFE-ND incubatees; assess the agricultural economic opportunities in LIFE-ND for program incubatees; assess the production and marketing infrastructure that support LIFE-ND; ascertain the effect of the programme on the livelihood of the incubatees and identify the constraints confronting incubatees’ in the LIFE-ND programme. Using a questionnaire, information was gathered. A total of two hundred and fifty (250) incubatees were interviewed. Data collected were analysed with the use of percentage, mean scores and regression analysis. Findings showed that majority of the incubatees (53.2% ) were females between the ages of 31 – 40 years (43.6%), were married (53.2%), had tertiary education (37.2%), household size of 1-4 persons (43.2%). Results of the effect of the programme on the livelihood of the incubatees were: increased income (x ̅=3.29), provision of source of livelihood (x ̅=3.11), provision of source of livelihood and employment (x ̅=3.04). The result of the socio-economic factors influencing participation showed that sex, educational level, household size, income and major occupation were the significant factors that influenced the level of participation in LIFE-ND project at P≤0.05. The major constraints confronting incubatees were: inadequate funding (x ̅=2.91), long distance to training centres (x ̅=2.90), inadequate inputs (x ̅=2.88), untimely release of funds (x ̅=2.84), corruption (x ̅=2.82) etc. The study recommends that adequate inpus should be made available for incubatees to fast track the learning and practical process.

Mapping inundation from sea level rise and its interaction with land cover in the Sundarbans mangrove forest

The sea level rise (SLR) in the Sundarbans areas is higher than the global-average rate of sea rise, and many studies assume that most of the dry land of the Sundarbans will be inundated by the end of the twenty-first century. This study aims to analyze the amount of dry land that can potentially be inundated by SLR in Sundarbans and the impact under different land cover conditions. Four SLR scenarios, a digital elevation data grid, and net subsidence data are used to map areas that will be potentially inundated by 2100. Results for the low (35 cm), mid (52 cm), high (70 cm), and extreme (147 cm) SLR scenarios indicate that the Sundarbans landmass area will be flooded up to 40 km2 (1%), 72 km2 (1.8%), 136 km2 (3.4%), and 918 km2 (23%), respectively, under the current net subsidence rate of −2.4 mm/year by 2100. Except for the extreme scenarios, the low, mid, and high SLR will result in riverbank and beach areas to be covered by water. The potential inundation areas of different vegetation cover classes that already exist today (2020) will be nominal for the low, mid, and high SLR scenarios. We also analyzed the sensitivity of the results through station-based SLR data, which fits with the low (35 cm) SLR scenarios under the −2.4 mm/year subsidence rate. This study concluded that the inundation aspect of SLR will not directly affect the Sundarbans; however, indirectly related threats and anthropogenic disturbances can be major drivers of the Sundarbans’ degradation by the end of the twenty-first century. This work discusses reasonable inundation scenarios integrating SLR and subsidence with a custom land-cover map that includes three forest-density categories. The study’s findings contribute to forest management planning and support the UN goals of the Bangladesh Delta Plan.

Application of system dynamics for municipal solid waste to electric energy generation potential of Khulna city in Bangladesh

A sustainable municipal solid waste (MSW) planning approach for Khulna city must include innovative and pioneering technologies which will suffice the requirements towards achieving the sustainable development goals (SDG) enlisted in the Bangladesh delta plan (BDP), 2100. This study utilizes system dynamics (SD) model to not only understand the MSW management system of Khulna city with independently interconnected parameters but also investigates three policy scenarios to aid the decision makers. An unforeseen increase of the composite index to 57.1 by 2050 represents the deteriorating environmental quality due to inconsistent policy measures for the baseline scenario of waste management sector. The methane (CH4) emission potential from landfill at Rajbandh in Khulna city has been found to be 8.29 Gg in 2020, which increases enormously to 108 Gg by 2050. The electric energy generation potential from the emitted CH4 has been found to be 7.65 MW per day in 2020 which eventually increases to 99.5 MW per day by 2050. This quantity can potentially be supplied to meet 2.24% of the total electricity demand by 2050. The total electric energy generation potential from MSW in Khulna city has been found to be 36.311 thousand MW in 2050 from 2.80 thousand MW in 2020. It has been perceived that, existing MSW management policy of Khulna city has to be replaced by assumed “Policy 3”, involving improved recycling capacity, collection capacity, extensive composting, landfill CH4 recovery and waste to electricity generation measures. Finally, this sophisticatedly developed SD model can be used for policy simulation of different spatiotemporal region.

Adaptive Governance of River Deltas Under Accelerating Environmental Change.

Many deltas are increasingly threatened by environmental change, including climate change-induced sea-level rise, land subsidence and reduced sediment delivery. Dealing with these challenges is a pressing necessity because deltas are home to many people and are important centres for economic and agricultural development. Successfully adapting to climate change requires a social-ecological system (SES) perspective, emphasising that social and ecological components of deltas are intertwined. Various modes of governance have been suggested to deal with uncertainty associated with environmental change in SESs, such as adaptive governance. Adaptive governance underlines the need for governance systems to be flexible enough to adapt to variable degrees of uncertainty in SESs. In this paper, we analyse the Dutch Delta Programme (DDP) and the Mekong Delta Plan (MDP) to explore their strengths and limitations relating to nine principles for adaptive governance proposed by DeCaro and others. We evaluate the suitability of this framework for the Rhine and Mekong deltas and contribute to the current understanding of delta governance in light of climate change. Most of the principles outlined by DeCaro and others are present in the DDP and MDP. However, adaptive governance is context dependent. The Rhine and Mekong deltas display different obstacles to adaptive governance, some of which are not sufficiently emphasised in this academic adaptive governance framework. Instead of relying on one framework as a blueprint for adaptive governance, using principles from different frameworks depending on the case may be the best approach for addressing environmental challenges in deltas.

Impacts of land-use changes and landholding fragmentation on crop water demand and drought in Wadi El-Farigh, New Delta project, Egypt

Despite Egypt’s limited water resources, more lands in the western desert of the Nile Delta are currently being reclaimed to increase the agricultural area to feed its fast-growing population and provide jobs for new generations. These reclaimed lands are prone to drought since they are located in arid regions with limited water resources for irrigation. Moreover, a high rate of landholdings fragmentation was observed with the migration of large numbers of new farmers to the newly reclaimed areas. Hence, the current work uses remote sensing data to investigate the impacts of landholdings fragmentation and land-use changes on irrigation water demand and drought propagation in two selected sites in Wadi El-Farigh area, one of the newly reclaimed valleys in the western desert of Egypt. To achieve that goal, high-resolution satellite images were used to quantify the land-use changes and patterns. The Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) was used to estimate the actual evapotranspiration (ETa) from 2010 to 2020. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) were used to monitor drought. Results indicated a large transformation of seasonal herbaceous crops to tree-fruit crops in the two study sites. However, landholding fragmentation caused a reduction in the total cultivated area and thus the accumulated water consumption over one study site. Although the accumulated ETa decreased following the decline in the total cultivated area, the ETa rate per hectare increased by 18.4% and 19.6% for trees and herbaceous crops, respectively, reflecting the negative impact of climate change. ESI and SPI time series confirms that the area became extremely dry, particularly after 2017. In conclusion, land use and climate change increased crop water demand, while landholding fragmentation led to cropland loss. Hence, more policies for land protection and adaptation strategies to climate change are essentially needed.

Unlocking the Potential of Permeable Pavements in Practice: A Large-Scale Field Study of Performance Factors of Permeable Pavements in The Netherlands

Infiltrating pavements are potentially effective climate adaptation measures to counteract arising challenges related to flooding and drought in urban areas. However, they are susceptible to clogging causing premature degradation. As part of the Dutch Delta Plan, Dutch municipalities were encouraged to put infiltrating pavements into practice. Disappointing experiences made a significant number of municipalities decide, however, to stop further implementation. A need existed to better understand how infiltrating pavements function in practice. Through 81 full-scale infiltration tests, we investigated the performance of infiltrating pavements in practice. Most pavements function well above Dutch and international standards. However, variation was found to be high. Infiltration rates decrease over time. Age alone, however, is not a sufficient explanatory factor. Other factors, such as environmental or system characteristics, are of influence here. Maintenance can play a major role in preserving/improving the performance of infiltrating pavements in practice. While our results provide the first indication of the functioning of infiltrating pavement in practice, only with multi-year measurements following a strict monitoring protocol can the longer-term effects of environmental factors and maintenance actually be determined, providing the basis for the development of an optimal maintenance schedule and associated cost–benefit assessments to the added value of this type of climate adaptation.

A Review and Analysis of Water Research, Development, and Management in Bangladesh

This paper presents a review of water research, development, and management in Bangladesh, with examples drawn from the past and present. A bibliometric analysis is adopted here to analyze the water-related publication data of Bangladesh. Water-quality-related research is the dominating research field in Bangladesh as compared to water-quantity (floods and droughts)-related ones. The most productive author was found to be Ahmed KM for water-related publication in Bangladesh. The arsenic contamination in Bangladesh has received the highest attention (13 out of the top 15 highly cited papers are related to arsenic contamination). Climate-change-related topics have been showing an increasing trend in research publications over the last 5 years. Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100, prepared recently, is a visionary master plan that is expected to shape water management in Bangladesh in the coming decades to adapt to climate change. A set of recommendations is made here to achieve sustainable water management in Bangladesh.

Tree-fruits crop type mapping from Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 data integration in Egypt's New Delta project

Horticulture maps are absent in Egypt, despite the vital importance of horticulture crops as a main part of the agriculture economy. The available land use/cover datasets have only one cropland category, with no detailed information on crop types, areas, and spatial distribution, which are essential information for a wide range of agriculture applications. Hence, producing crop type maps from remote sensing was addressed in many studies, focusing more on mapping herbaceous crop types rather than horticulture crops. The earlier studies also indicated the high spectral and phenological similarities among various tree-fruits crops, which hampered the accurate mapping of horticulture crops. Hence, the current study aims to find the best approach for accurate tree-fruits mapping by testing different temporal stacking windows, spectral stacking methods, and various integration scenarios between Sentinel-2 optical (S2) and Sentinel-1 SAR (S1) data as inputs to the random forest (RF) classifier. Comparative accuracy analysis showed that using time series S2 spectral bands (SBs) and vegetation indices (VIs) can classify various tree crop types with very high accuracy (96%), while using S1 polarization channels with some added S1 textural features could yield a high classification accuracy (85.2%). Hence, the optical and SAR data integration further improved the discrimination of tree crops, particularly those with similar spectral characteristics (e.g., mango, citrus, and olive). The use of annual or seasonal time series images achieved better accuracy (by 7–8%) than the monthly stacked images. Despite its high dimensionality, the temporal image that contains all months' S2 SBs & VIs achieved higher accuracy (by 1.5%) than the reduced image that contains the annual statistical layers (e.g., maximum and minimum values of each SBs and VIs). The best integration scenario that achieved the highest accuracy (OA = 96.31 & Kappa = 0.96) was adding S1 textural features to S2 spectral features.

Capacity development for the Bangladesh Delta Plan from the perspective of delta professionals: A qualitative study

Abstract Many deltaic regions around the world are exploring or adopting planning initiatives to address the complex challenges associated with future economic development and climate change. A key feature is their adaptive nature, also coined as adaptive delta management (ADM). ADM refers to the development of strategies and measures that allow us to adapt to change over a long time. The Government of Bangladesh has recently approved the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 (BDP2100) – a long-term adaptive strategy for sustainable water resources management. This study aims to explore the future capacity requirements from the perspective of water/delta professionals for implementing BDP2100. This calls for structural and institutional changes, and new skills and competencies to address the specific organisational and individual needs for effective delivery. A capacity development programme as an integral part of BDP2100 is currently under development. Adopting a qualitative approach, 16 key informant interviews were conducted with experts and professionals from the water and water-related sectors in Bangladesh. A thematic analysis approach was used to analyse the data. The participants reflected that an integrated and adaptive system is critical for sustainable delta management; collaboration and coordination between water/delta professionals (e.g., policy planners, consultants, and academics) and delta expert stakeholders with deep local familiarity (e.g., communities, activists, and civil society members) were deemed essential. In addition, a powerful independent institutional body is recommended to provide stewardship and leadership in the implementation process.

Flood resilience—A time for cathedral‐based thinking and action!

Flood resilience—A time for cathedral‐based thinking and action!

Application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Dredging Efficiency in Bangladesh

The integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into the dredging systems and dredging machinery used in "capital" and "maintenance" dredging in Bangladesh can enhance the efficiency of the machines and dredging process, enabling the operators to perform regular and repetitive dredging tasks safely in the rivers, ports, and estuaries all over the country. AI, including Big Data, Machine Learning, Internet of Thing, Blockchain and Sensors and Simulators with their catalytic potentials, can systematically compile and evaluate specific data collected from different sources, develop applications or simulators, connect the stakeholders on a virtual platform, store lakes of information without compromising their intellectual rights, predicting models to harness the challenges, minimise the cost of dredging, identify possible threats and help protect the already dredged areas by giving timely signals for further maintenance. Furthermore, the application of AI modulated dredging devices and machinery can play a significant role when monitoring aspects becomes crucial, keeping environmental impacts mitigated without affecting the quality of the human environment. This study includes the evaluation of the application of AI – its prospect and challenges in the existing dredging systems in Bangladesh against the backdrop of the challenges faced in capital and maintenance dredging in the major rivers – and assess whether such inclusion of AI is likely to minimise the cost of dredging in the rivers of Bangladesh and facilitate the materialisation of the objectives of Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100.This paper studies the organisation's infrastructural requirement for the integration of AI into dredging systems, using benchmarking such as 1- "Understanding AI Ready Approach", 2-"Strategies for Implementing AI", 3-"Data Management", 4-"Creating AI Literate Workforce and Upskilling", and 5-"Identifying Threats" concerning the management and dredging operations of Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority (BIWTA), under Bangladesh Ministry of Shipping and Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB). The paper also uses several case studies such as channel dredging to show that the use of AI can bring a significant change in the dredging operations both in reducing the cost of dredging and in terms of harnessing the barriers in adaptive management and environmental impacts.

Un-Dutching the Delta Approach: network management and policy translation for effective policy transfer

This study identifies network management as a facilitator of effective policy transfer. We reconstruct the unconventional collaboration between Dutch private-sector experts and national governments of Vietnam and Bangladesh to develop multi-sectoral, long-term strategies (‘delta plans’). We identify the network management strategies used by the Dutch actors and use these to explain how problem perceptions of state and non-state actors were aligned in order to define solution pathways. Based on these cases, we argue that network analysis is a tool for policy transfer studies. This paper further concludes that the ‘soft’ nature of the transferred policy (in the form of principles, norms and ideas) increased its transferability, as being ambiguous and abstract left room for interpretation and translation to the local context.

Deltas in dialogue: Imagining policy transfer from the Netherlands to Vietnam and Bangladesh as a symmetrical conversation

AbstractBased on the in‐depth study of the travels of the Dutch Delta Plan—a water‐centered strategic long‐term plan to help prepare for the effects of climate change—to Vietnam and Bangladesh, this article reflects on ways to conceptualize processes of policy transfer. Such processes involve a range of actors and actions, and hinges on the quality of the interactions and (historic) relations between them. All involved contribute experience and knowledge, working in collaboration with each other to somehow—through translation and mutual learning—create a version of the transferred policy that fits its new context. We use the article to imagine policy transfer processes in less hierarchical and more reciprocal terms, not a priori positioning those originating the transfer as superior or more advanced than those on the receiving end. To do this, the article proposes a conceptualization of policy transfer processes as symmetrical conversations: conversations in which many knowers and knowledges are mixed together to co‐produce plans and policies that are relevant and specific. Beyond better acknowledging the importance of the receivers, we hope that this conceptualization will also open up the discussion about what “good” policies (or policy knowledges) are, as well as allow for more explicit reflection about how different knowledges and knowers relate to each other in policy transfer processes.This article is categorized under: Engineering Water > Planning Water Human Water > Water Governance

Institutional Conditions for Inclusive, Flood Resilient Urban Deltas: A Comparative Institutional Analysis of Two International Resilience Programs in Southeast Asia

Policy makers in Southeast Asian flood-vulnerable regions are confronted with various institutional challenges when planning for inclusive flood resilience. This paper focuses on the role of international resilience programs and investigates how these programs can enable institutional transformation. The key question is which institutional conditions promote the development and implementation of inclusive flood resilience strategies by international resilience programs. The Mekong Delta Plan in Vietnam (MDP) and the Water as Leverage for Resilient Cities Asia (WaL) program in Semarang, Indonesia, are selected as the cases for a comparative analysis. To structure the comparative analysis of these programs, the Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework is adopted and operationalized for the institutional analysis of inclusive flood resilience planning. The findings illustrate that whereas the MDP was able to involve decision makers from the national government and international financial institutions for mobilizing funding and technical support, the strength of the WaL program was its enabling environment for the cocreation of context-specific flood resilience proposals. Overall, this study concludes that the institutional conditions that enable project financing and the implementation of long-term and integrated flood resilience solutions are determined by engagement with national governments and by ownership of the solutions at both the national and local levels.

Strategic basin and delta planning increases the resilience of the Mekong Delta under future uncertainty

The climate resilience of river deltas is threatened by rising sea levels, accelerated land subsidence, and reduced sediment supply from contributing river basins. Yet, these uncertain and rapidly changing threats are rarely considered in conjunction. Here we provide an integrated assessment, on basin and delta scales, to identify key planning levers for increasing the climate resilience of the Mekong Delta. We find, first, that 23 to 90% of this unusually productive delta might fall below sea level by 2100, with the large uncertainty driven mainly by future management of groundwater pumping and associated land subsidence. Second, maintaining sediment supply from the basin is crucial under all scenarios for maintaining delta land and enhancing the climate resilience of the system. We then use a bottom-up approach to identify basin development scenarios that are compatible with maintaining sediment supply at current levels. This analysis highlights, third, that strategic placement of hydropower dams will be more important for maintaining sediment supply than either projected increases in sediment yields or improved sediment management at individual dams. Our results demonstrate 1) the need for integrated planning across basin and delta scales, 2) the role of river sediment management as a nature-based solution to increase delta resilience, and 3) global benefits from strategic basin management to maintain resilient deltas, especially under uncertain and changing conditions.

Application of system dynamics model for municipal solid waste management in Khulna city of Bangladesh

The long term municipal solid wastes (MSW) management plan of Khulna city has to be focused on the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100. In most developing countries, conventional system of MSW management approach has been found inadequate due to complex nature of MSW. This study presents a system dynamics (SD) model to predict generation, collection, treatment and landfill capacity of MSW until the year of 2050 to analyze the necessity for MSW management for the coastal city of Khulna, Bangladesh. Simulation results show that MSW generation increases from 168 thousand tons in year 2020 to 1.2 million tons with a per capita generation from 0.117 tons to 0.561 tons by year 2050. The total fund required for collection and landfill capacity also increases, while treatment capacity decreases over time, resulting a piling up of massive amount of uncleared MSW of 10.3 million tons in year 2050 from 152 thousand tons in year 2020. The uncleared and untreated MSW, composite index and public concern increases with time in an exponential nature for the projection period of next thirty years. The population in this model is considered as the only linear growth factor which increases from 1.5 million in year 2020 to 2.24 million by year 2050. The developed SD model also shows that the policy of only to increase collection capacity with the increased allocation of budget is not adequate for improving environmental sustainability, rather an increase of budget is essential for developing MSW treatment facility. In this study, validation methods including behavior sensitivity, data sensitivity and dimensional consistency in extreme condition has been performed to validate the model. The outcome of this SD model can be used as a dynamic testing module for MSW management policy analysis and strategic measures that can be implemented effectively in the context of developing counties.

Cross-over analysis of the climate-change delta situation of the cities Gdansk (Baltic-sea) and Rotterdam (Nord-sea)

Gdansk and the city Haarlem in the Netherlands share a long-term relationship that started with the establishment of Dutch Mennonites in the Vistula delta in the 16th Century. A small city was founded called Holland and these immigrants reclaimed the surrounding delta area. This area of 1,000 km2, with hundreds of small ‘polders’ separated and defended by 17,000 dikes, has become an important agricultural area for the whole of Poland, similar to the Rhine delta in the Netherlands. Despite these civil defense works in the past, both coastlines nevertheless experienced floods: the Dutch southwest coast in 1953, Dutch Rhine riverbank in 1993 and 1995, and Vistula delta recently in 2001. Climate change figures show that both the Polish Gdansk and Dutch Rhine deltas will suffer flooding with sea level rises, with accumulating severe rainfall accompanied by high river levels. Although both the Baltic Sea and the North Sea are next to each other and coupled to the Atlantic Ocean, there are differences in how soon or severely climate change trends, such as seawater level rises and water thrust, become critical. From cross-over analysis it can be concluded that Poland and the Netherlands have a virtually identical approach when it comes to climate change impacts on their current situation. With regard to long-term climate change, the Netherlands is exploring the future in a planned manner with the development of new scenarios for the protection of cities. The enclosure of the Baltic Sea, on the other hand, probably offers more options for exchanging knowledge with neighbor states. In that respect, the Netherlands is more isolated in their situation with the North Sea and its Delta Plan. The situation of Gdansk and Rotterdam is quite similar; these cities can take steps forward by learning from each other’s actions.

Why uncertainty in community livelihood adaptation is important for adaptive delta management: A case study in polders of Southwest Bangladesh

To deal with large uncertainties about future climate and socio-economic developments, planners in deltas are adopting an integrative and adaptive planning approach referred to as Adaptive Delta Management (ADM). Bangladesh has used the ADM approach for the development of its adaptive plan; Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 (BDP 2100). The success of policy strategies in an adaptive delta plan critically depends on a specific adaptation of livelihoods of local communities (Community Livelihood Adaptation; CLA), especially in an agriculture-oriented society like Bangladesh. For example, while triple rice cropping might be evaluated as a robust strategy in all futures considered, its success eventually depends on whether farmers’ will actually make that choice, which is deeply uncertain. In this paper, we use literature review, insights from interviews and field observations to examine how the uncertainty in CLA impacts (adaptive) delta management. We study two historical cases of livelihood adaptation of farmer communities confronted with salinization and waterlogging in the polders of southwest Bangladesh since the 1960s. We conclude that historically the uncertainty about CLA in polders has been ignored in the development of policy plans, leading to the failure of anticipated policy outcomes. We recommend planners in Bangladesh and other deltas worldwide to take account of CLA as uncertainty when developing long-term adaptive plans.