Application of system dynamics model for municipal solid waste management in Khulna city of Bangladesh

Abstract

The long term municipal solid wastes (MSW) management plan of Khulna city has to be focused on the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100. In most developing countries, conventional system of MSW management approach has been found inadequate due to complex nature of MSW. This study presents a system dynamics (SD) model to predict generation, collection, treatment and landfill capacity of MSW until the year of 2050 to analyze the necessity for MSW management for the coastal city of Khulna, Bangladesh. Simulation results show that MSW generation increases from 168 thousand tons in year 2020 to 1.2 million tons with a per capita generation from 0.117 tons to 0.561 tons by year 2050. The total fund required for collection and landfill capacity also increases, while treatment capacity decreases over time, resulting a piling up of massive amount of uncleared MSW of 10.3 million tons in year 2050 from 152 thousand tons in year 2020. The uncleared and untreated MSW, composite index and public concern increases with time in an exponential nature for the projection period of next thirty years. The population in this model is considered as the only linear growth factor which increases from 1.5 million in year 2020 to 2.24 million by year 2050. The developed SD model also shows that the policy of only to increase collection capacity with the increased allocation of budget is not adequate for improving environmental sustainability, rather an increase of budget is essential for developing MSW treatment facility. In this study, validation methods including behavior sensitivity, data sensitivity and dimensional consistency in extreme condition has been performed to validate the model. The outcome of this SD model can be used as a dynamic testing module for MSW management policy analysis and strategic measures that can be implemented effectively in the context of developing counties.