Application of system dynamics for municipal solid waste to electric energy generation potential of Khulna city in Bangladesh

Abstract

A sustainable municipal solid waste (MSW) planning approach for Khulna city must include innovative and pioneering technologies which will suffice the requirements towards achieving the sustainable development goals (SDG) enlisted in the Bangladesh delta plan (BDP), 2100. This study utilizes system dynamics (SD) model to not only understand the MSW management system of Khulna city with independently interconnected parameters but also investigates three policy scenarios to aid the decision makers. An unforeseen increase of the composite index to 57.1 by 2050 represents the deteriorating environmental quality due to inconsistent policy measures for the baseline scenario of waste management sector. The methane (CH4) emission potential from landfill at Rajbandh in Khulna city has been found to be 8.29 Gg in 2020, which increases enormously to 108 Gg by 2050. The electric energy generation potential from the emitted CH4 has been found to be 7.65 MW per day in 2020 which eventually increases to 99.5 MW per day by 2050. This quantity can potentially be supplied to meet 2.24% of the total electricity demand by 2050. The total electric energy generation potential from MSW in Khulna city has been found to be 36.311 thousand MW in 2050 from 2.80 thousand MW in 2020. It has been perceived that, existing MSW management policy of Khulna city has to be replaced by assumed “Policy 3”, involving improved recycling capacity, collection capacity, extensive composting, landfill CH4 recovery and waste to electricity generation measures. Finally, this sophisticatedly developed SD model can be used for policy simulation of different spatiotemporal region.