Deforestation Reduction Research Articles

Local leaders and the environment: little resilience/influence to produce a sustainable environment

The Legal Amazon region (LAR) consists on a complex area where multiple actors coexist with conflicting interests. Indigenous population, agribusiness entrepreneurs and small producers are examples of individuals with different behaviors concerning the economic development and deforestation of the area. In this sense, research has been conducted in order to evaluate the impacts of agricultural development and the rise of deforestation levels, the influence of economic incentives on economic development and deforestation and the impact of institutional incentives on deforestation reduction. However, the role of local leadership on these matters has not been analyzed so far. An efficient local leader would be the one who is resilient (e.g. promote both economic development and deforestation reduction on his municipality). Therefore, in our study we test if local leaders are resilient in the Legal Amazon environment, whether or not they make use of economic and/or institutional incentive to promote economic development and deforestation reduction and whether or not sustainable top leaders (e.g. state governors) influence the actions of local leaders (e.g. mayors). For this, we use a Regression Discontinuity methodology and a quasi-randomized experiment (elections with a margin of victory close to zero). Our sample comes from multiple databases and includes over 18000 observations from 755 LAR distinct municipalities for the period between 1996 and 2016. Amongst our results, we identify that local farmer leaders promote economic development but do not produce significant changes on deforestation levels. We also identify that economic incentives are used by these local leaders, but institutional incentives are not. Finally, we identify that top level leaders do not influence local leaders on their actions on behalf of being resilient.

Biomass valorization for energy applications: A preliminary study on millet husk

This study used millet husk which is a waste and gum Arabic as binder to develop briquettes for domestic cooking in Northern Nigeria. The objective was to investigate the effect of particle sizes, compaction pressures and binder concentrations on the physical, mechanical and thermal characteristics of the briquettes. Furthermore, the study also accessed the economic viability of the usage of millet husk briquettes as fuel. Particle sizes of 0.3, 0.4, 0.6 and 1.7mm; compaction pressures of 10, 15, 20 and 25 MPa and binder concentrations (gum Arabic) of 25, 30, 35 and 40% were used to densify the millet husk mixed with gum Arabic at room temperature with the aid of hydraulic press. The caloric value (15.27 MJ/kg) was determined using ASTM D2015, other physical and chemical properties of the millet husk was determined by proximate and ultimate analysis which showed that volatile matter (76%), ash content (6.5%) and sulphur content (0.3%) are within the recommended range for domestic cooking fuels. It was found that the density (438 kg/m3 and 669 kg/m3), impact resistance index (70–93%) and compressive strength of the millet husk briquettes increased with compaction pressures and binder concentrations and decreases with increase in particle sizes, while for porosity of the briquettes, the above case was a reversal. The performance of the briquettes for domestic cooking were accessed by ignition time (109 and 140 s); burning rate (0.09 g/s and 0.18 g/s) and water boiling test which took 5 and 11 min to boil 1 L of water as compared to fuel wood that takes longer. Economic analysis showed that utilizing the millet husk generated in northern Nigeria will lead to huge savings in fuel wood consumption, monetary savings of about ₦ 9,257,869,268.62, and reduction in deforestation and its attendant problems. A structured questionnaire as used to ascertain the acceptability of the produced briquettes. Most of the respondents (90%) in a survey expressed willingness to use millet husk briquette as replacement for wood. The study concludes that millet husk is good for briquetting for energy applications with high potential to reduce energy poverty, minimal waste and reduce indoor pollution for domestic cooking therefore, making millet cultivation more profitable in Northern Nigeria.

Cullet To Glaze: Converting Waste For Ceramic Artistic, Economic And Environmental Development

Glazes are usually derived from wood ashes and rock materials accomplished at high temperatures. On the hypothesis that cullet, which is non-biodegradable and in the Nigerian context unutilized, indiscriminately discarded, hazardous and constitutes serious solid waste disposal challenge, contains poly-chemical oxides of glass former and should fire at low temperature, this study is production of cullet-derived glazes. Samples were collected from dumps, cleaned, heated, pulverized, sieved, washed, dried, elementally analysed and formed into two glaze batches of cullet with ball clay and cullet with potash and ball clay; milled, applied on ceramic tiles; and fired in a kiln at 1100oC.Findings revealed that cullet has the potentials to produce pure compound of silica for glazing. The study has far reaching implications for the environment in solid waste disposal, economic and industrial development, conservation of energy, reduction of deforestation and anthropogenic carbon emission and ultimately contributes towards a cleaner earth.

Impact of deforestation on radiative and thermal regimes of the territory of Ukraine on the base of global climate models data

This paper is dedicated to the influence of partial deforestation with using global retrospective modelling data from The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) for the territory of Ukraine. This experiment aims to global gradual deforestation and has two phases. The first phase, defined as the pre-industrial period (1850—1899) with constant unchangeable anthropogenic impact. For this period deforestation modelled with further replacement with grass cover with a linear trend 400000 km2/yr or 20 million km2 per 50 years in general. The second phase is next 30 years with no significant changes in forest cover (1900—1929). For conducting this research the data of several global climate models were applied. The results of analysis have demonstrated that a partial deforestation with grass substitution influences the surface reflectivity or albedo and redistribution of shortwave radiative fluxes. In turn, it provokes changes in thermal regime. It was found that the most significant changes in surface reflectivity and the strongest correlation coefficients between albedo and deforestation are in the winter season due to the presence of snow cover. As a result, statistical significant increase of albedo is with maximum values up to 24 %/50 years in some grids in winter. Then in the summer season maximal changes are up to 2.7 %/50 years due to small differences between forest and grass albedos. As a consequence, changes in albedo cause changes in surface and air temperature regimes. Strong dependencies were found in winter between changes in albedo and temperatures with maximum temperature decrease 2.5…2.0 %/50 years. In warm season correlations are weaker in comparison to cold season, but nevertheless, temperatures decrease also take place with maximum values 2.0…1.5 %/50 years. The analysis between deforestation and daily air temperature range has shown that particularly in winter season there is an increase of 0.5...1.5 %/50 years, whereas such tendency is not observed in warm season. Calculations of year air temperature range demonstrated controversial results among climate models, as follows it is hard to make a conclusion about the contribution of forest cover reduction to changes in this index. It was revealed, that global climate models with higher resolution are more sensitive to changes in albedo and, as a consequence to other characteristics than models with coarse ones. It should be noticed that obtained results concern pre-industrial period with minimal anthropogenic impact, when observed a stable snow cover in winter in Ukraine. In the current climate change with significant warming and reduction of snow season duration deforestation can have opposite effects on radiative and thermal regimes that require further studying.

Alleviating energy poverty for forest conservation: It seems to work, but what are we missing?

The literature mostly agrees that alleviating energy poverty can protect forests. This study nevertheless shows a conundrum, in that the policy of energy poverty alleviation may cause deforestation and forest rents after a threshold. Specifically, the impacts on forest area and forest rents of four proxies of energy poverty (i.e. access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking, access to electricity, and electricity consumption) are analysed using a global sample of 74 developing countries from 2002 to 2016. Several estimates for panel data are applied, providing robust and consistent findings. Energy poverty alleviation and forest area appear to have mutual causalities, while energy poverty alleviation appears to have unidirectional causality on forest rents. There is no evidence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve for deforestation, but economic development appears to increase forest area and reduce forest rents. Notably, the analysis shows that the alleviation of energy poverty appears to have inverted U-shaped effects on forest area, and U-shaped effects on forest rents. The results mean that energy poverty alleviation seems to cause a reduction in deforestation and forest rents until a threshold, and from that tipping point, energy prosperity likely increases deforestation and forest rents in developing countries. The findings are discussed along with important policy implications.

Public Forests Under Threat in the Brazilian Amazon: Strategies for Coping Shifts in Environmental Policies and Regulations

Brazil has 310.5 million hectares of public forests, almost 92% of which in the Amazon. Since the 1980s, Brazilian environmental legislation has been improving and, along with other measures, has contributed to a significant reduction in deforestation in the Amazon since 2005. However, changes in the legal framework and dismantling of successful socio-environmental policies threaten public forests in the Amazon. Here, we highlighted some relevant changes in the legal and political framework and prioritized some actions to safeguard the largest tropical forest in the world considering an adverse political context. We emphasized strategies associated with (1) the institutionalization of practices and processes; and (2) market-driven influence on sustainable production. The purpose is to inhibit current threats until more favorable and participatory circumstances are present and a comprehensive range of past success measures may be revisited.

Forest tenure and rights: a constraint to community forest management in Cameroon and the REDD+ initiative

The link between Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation, with the enhancement of forest carbon stock (REDD+) and Community Forest Management (CFM) as a necessary local action on the forest, is continuously being challenged. CFM has been a suitable option in achieving sustainable forest practices in the tropics. The factors that contribute to its success will likely contribute to the success of REDD+ programs in Cameroon. Nevertheless, the opportunity and challenges in integrating the two concepts to achieve the objectives require careful analysis, considering the challenges facing the country’s tenure system. This article makes use of an in-depth content analysis of several documents concerning the subject matter and tries to examine the extent to which forest tenure and rights are a constraint to CFM in Cameroon and the REDD+ Initiative and assess how these concepts can work together to achieve sustainable forest management and a reduction in deforestation and forest degradation. The assessment shows several bottlenecks and discrepancies concerning tenure rights in the community forest and carbon rights when it concerns incentive-based benefit-sharing mechanisms under the REDD+ process. It reveals that the state may likely maintain centralization of forest tenure if the issues are not clarified. The article concludes with a proposal of an urgent need for domestic legal reforms to secure forest protection achieve the objectives of international forest policy initiatives like REDD+.

Strategy involving stakeholders and government to contribute and to implement the ILEDSA

A low emission development strategy (LEDS) is designed to develop action programs and policies to place a country on a development pathway that is resilient to climate change while working towards measurable long-term reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Aceh’s efforts to protect forests have shown a steady rate of reduction in deforestation from 2013-2017. However, the threat still exists, so that an integrated strategy with other sectors is needed to ensure that the goals of tackling climate change and reducing deforestation can be achieved. The data sources for this study are primary and secondary in nature and were carried out by following the basic structure of the ‘SWOT’ analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats). Some of the strategies produced in this study to involve stakeholders and government are: 1) District, Provincial and National level governments implement policies and regulations that are synergistic between institutions; 2) Traders, Exporters / Cooperatives and Collectors monitor the performance of certified coffee and overcome market failures; 3) The Gayo Coffee Protection Society (MPKG), Universities and Research Institutions apply Geographical Indications in every export product and support research funds; and 4) Coffee farmers / planters undertake technological interventions, develop market-based strategies, and develop risk management schemes.

Analysis of biofuel (briquette) production from forest biomass: a socioeconomic incentive towards deforestation

Deforestation remains a major ecological problem in most developing countries especially Pakistan which has a very high deforestation rate. Fuel-wood consumption is a determining socioeconomic factor for deforestation and degradation. Agroforest biomass utilization for energy production is an extreme value socioeconomic incentive towards the reduction in deforestation and degradation in Pakistan. This study was conducted at Basho forest valley Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan, in 2019. In this study, dried and milled forest waste (FW) including tree leaves and branches were briquetted (biofuel) to be used as an alternate of wood fuel and determined its physical properties regarding quality of the briquette. The screw extruder briquetting technology was employed. Dried (<15%) forest biomass was briquetted at 4 mold temperatures (225, 250, 275, 300 °C) and grounded biomass sizes (2, 4, 6 mm). The briquette was 100 mm in length with 20 mm diameter. Briquettes were analyzed for physical and thermal characteristics. Results indicated that the mold temperature and biomass particle size have insignificant effect on the fracture resistance and endurance and fracture resistances, respectively. It is determined that the mold temperature and the particle size are markedly effective on examined other briquettes characteristics. The maximum moisture content and density of briquettes was 12% and 1092 kgm−3 respectively. Biomass briquettes showed ≥95% of durability, shatter, moisture, and compressive resistance which ensure sustainable handling. The maximum calorific value and ash content was 4339 kcal/kg and 7.23%, respectively, while the emission of flue gases was below the standard values. The economic and feasibility analysis proved to be a sustainable and profitable study with payback investment time (0.9) year and benefit-cost ratio as 1.39. The utilization of FW would contribute to the elimination of the energy deficit and reduce of control deforestation activities for fuel-wood while contributing to economic growth. Considering the benefits of the FW for environmental conditions, it will be understood that the issue is very comprehensive. Therefore, instead of using forest wood material for fuel, the conversion of FW into alternate energy source would be an economic and environmental positive behavior.

BIOCAPACITY OF BRAZILIAN BIOMES USING EMERGY ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT CONCEPTS

Abstract This work aimed to assess Brazilian biomes’ biocapacity (BC) using concepts of the Emergy Ecological Footprint method. Climate and forest cover data were interpolated using the Kriging method. In 2016, the Brazilian BC was among the largest in the world, 42.11 gha / cap. The biomes’ forest coverage areas were investigated and simulated in two scenarios: optimistic (with 100% forest coverage) and pessimistic (only 10%). The Amazon’s contribution of half the Brazilian BC would reduce by 88% in a pessimistic scenario. The Atlantic Forest contribution was only 1.9% of the national BC, however, in an optimistic scenario, it would increase by 690%. The reduction of deforestation, fires and expansion of areas protected by law are measures that positively impact the BC of the studied biomes. This methodology can be used as an environmental quality indicator as it adheres to the principles of Sustainable Development.

An Overview of Environmental Policies for Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change and Application of Multilevel Regression Analysis to Investigate the CO2 Emissions over the Years of 1970 to 2018 in All Brazilian States

Background: Brazil, one of the largest greenhouse gas emitting countries in the world, emitted approximately 2 billion gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) in 2018. This data is practically the same recorded in the previous year, suggesting that the country’s trajectory of CO2 emissions is stabilized. Methods: This study presents an overview of environmental protection and climate change mitigation policies adopted in Brazil, as well as makes use the multilevel regression modeling technique to investigate the relationship between economic activities variables in relation to CO2 emissions over the years of 1970 to 2018 in all Brazilian states. Results: The results show that the CO2 emissions in the states have the same behavior as the timeline of the change in land use. Conclusions: The public policies and actions by society and the private sector were fundamental to the reduction verified from the year of 2004 that followed until 2010, both in CO2 emissions and in the change in land use and forests. As of this year, there has been a trend towards stability in CO2 emissions. Another important characteristic is that even with a drop in the number of deforestation, the production variables continued to grow, which shows that there may be an increase in production activities, while there is a reduction in deforestation and in CO2 emissions.

What influences and inhibits reduction of deforestation in the soy supply chain? A mental model perspective

Multiple sustainability initiatives have emerged in response to the environmental impacts of soy production, especially deforestation and climate change. But company commitments to reduce deforestation in their supply chains are not leading to outcomes on the ground. Achieving concerted action by supply chain actors requires consideration of their diverse perspectives. We investigate the mental models of Producer Associations, Traders, Fast Moving Consumer Goods Companies (FMCGs), NGOs, and financial institutions to identify the key similarities and differences in the factors perceived to promote or inhibit a reduction of deforestation from soy production in Brazil. Our results show general agreement across participants that NGO pressure and reputational risk are external motivators for companies to move towards sustainability, but only certain actor groups recognised that internal motivators are additionally needed for alignment between a sustainability agenda and a company’s corporate strategy—highlighting the importance of internal motivators to stimulate companies to translate commitments into actionable policies. Our results suggest that implementation of commitments to reduce deforestation is hampered by different perceived financial risks, differences in the levels of influence and power held by different actors, and a perceived entitlement to deforest that prevails over a sense of urgency for environmental sustainability. We highlight that any policy that threatens this “right to deforest” mindset can lead to the erosion of producers’ conservation behaviour through unnecessary clearing of land before such policy is implemented. Our findings highlight an opportunity for the organisations driving sustainability initiatives to consider and explore these differences as they seek transnational corporations to transition to a more sustainable soy industry and supply chain. Moreover, our study provides an example of how mental models can provide valuable insights for the achievement of sustainability in agricultural supply chains more broadly.

Improving rural health care reduces illegal logging and conserves carbon in a tropical forest

Tropical forest loss currently exceeds forest gain, leading to a net greenhouse gas emission that exacerbates global climate change. This has sparked scientific debate on how to achieve natural climate solutions. Central to this debate is whether sustainably managing forests and protected areas will deliver global climate mitigation benefits, while ensuring local peoples' health and well-being. Here, we evaluate the 10-y impact of a human-centered solution to achieve natural climate mitigation through reductions in illegal logging in rural Borneo: an intervention aimed at expanding health care access and use for communities living near a national park, with clinic discounts offsetting costs historically met through illegal logging. Conservation, education, and alternative livelihood programs were also offered. We hypothesized that this would lead to improved health and well-being, while also alleviating illegal logging activity within the protected forest. We estimated that 27.4 km2 of deforestation was averted in the national park over a decade (∼70% reduction in deforestation compared to a synthetic control, permuted P = 0.038). Concurrently, the intervention provided health care access to more than 28,400 unique patients, with clinic usage and patient visitation frequency highest in communities participating in the intervention. Finally, we observed a dose-response in forest change rate to intervention engagement (person-contacts with intervention activities) across communities bordering the park: The greatest logging reductions were adjacent to the most highly engaged villages. Results suggest that this community-derived solution simultaneously improved health care access for local and indigenous communities and sustainably conserved carbon stocks in a protected tropical forest.

What Drives Household Deforestation Decisions? Insights from the Ecuadorian Lowland Rainforests

Tropical forests, and more concretely, the Amazon Basin and the Chocó-Darién, are highly affected by deforestation activities. Households are the main land-use decision-makers and are key agents for forest conservation and deforestation. Understanding the determinants of deforestation at the household level is critical for conservation policies and sustainable development. We explore the drivers of household deforestation decisions, focusing on the quality of the forest resources (timber volume potential) and the institutional environment (conservation strategies, titling, and governmental grants). Both aspects are hypothesized to influence deforestation, but there is little empirical evidence. We address the following questions: (i) Does timber availability attract more deforestation? (ii) Do conservation strategies (incentive-based programs in the Central Amazon and protected areas in the Chocó-Darién) influence deforestation decisions in household located outside the areas under conservation? (iii) Does the absence of titling increase the odds of a household to deforest? (iv) Can governmental grants for poverty alleviation help in the fight against deforestation? We estimated a logit model, where the dependent variable reflects whether or not a household cleared forest within the farm. As predictors, we included the above variables and controlled by household-specific characteristics. This study was conducted in the Central Amazon and the Chocó-Darién of Ecuador, two major deforestation fronts in the country. We found that timber volume potential is associated with a higher odds of deforesting in the Central Amazon, but with a lower odds in the Chocó-Darién. Although conservation strategies can influence household decisions, the effects are context-dependent. Households near the incentive-based program (Central Amazon) have a lower odds of deforesting, whereas households near a protected area (Chocó-Darién) showed the opposite effect. Titling is also important for deforestation reduction; more attention is needed in the Chocó-Darién where numerous households are living in untitled lands. Finally, governmental grants for poverty alleviation showed the potential to generate positive environmental outcomes.

Brazil’s conservation reform and the reduction of deforestation in Amazonia

The Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon (PPCDAm), launched in 2004, promoted a drastic conservation reform in Brazil. To date, the plan has been through four distinct phases: PPCDAm-I (2004–2008), II (2009–2011), III (2012–2015), and IV (2016–2020). A substantial decline from historically high deforestation rates in the Amazon occurred from 2004 to 2012, part of which (particularly after 2007) can be attributed to the PPCDAm, and part to economic factors such as commodity prices and the currency exchange rates that affect the profitability of agricultural exports. After 2012 deforestation has trended upward despite control efforts. The PPCDAm evolved through its four phases, consequently changing the patterns of deforestation in Amazonia. Here, we review the conservation instruments and strategies promoted under the PPCDAm umbrella and, when possible, provide estimates of their impacts on deforestation based on rigorous, counterfactual evaluations. While the literature emphasizes some of the most well-known PPCDAm actions, e.g., improved satellite-based monitoring, the “blacklist” of municipalities, expansion of protected areas, land tenure regularization, credit access restrictions, and moratoria, we highlight a number of other PPCDAm activities that, along with the previous examples, are arguably also responsible for a significant share of the reduction of deforestation in the region.

Evaluating the environmental effectiveness of payments for hydrological services in Veracruz, México: A landscape approach

Payments for ecosystem services (PES) are considered an important policy tool for promoting forest conservation and restoration. The effectiveness of PES programs is typically evaluated by their capacity to reduce deforestation within and around parcels receiving these payments. Larger, landscape-scale, impacts of these programs on processes such as forest fragmentation and connectivity, and payment thresholds that could influence PES effectiveness and their role in regional conservation efforts, remain largely unexplored. Working in three regions with active programs making payments for hydrological services (PHS) in Veracruz state, Mexico, we used a mobile window analysis to identify and compare particular landscapes receiving PHS to similar landscapes not receiving PHS. Difference-in-difference techniques were used to evaluate: 1) changes in metrics of PHS program effectiveness, including deforestation and additionality, in landscapes with low-PHS and high-PHS payment densities; and 2) landscape-scale metrics of ecological integrity, including the capacity of PHS to foster landscapes with less fragmentation and higher connectivity. Maps of forest coverage immediately prior to (1993−2003), and following (2003–2013) the first ten years of, PHS program operation were used to document and compare trends in these areas. Our results suggest PHS significantly reduced deforestation rates but was limited in achieving higher additionality by enrolling mostly areas of lower deforestation risk (only 44 % of PHS occurred in areas of high or very high risk). PHS was not successful in slowing forest fragmentation or the loss of connectivity in our study regions. However, we found that the effectiveness of PHS programs was linked with payment density, with higher PHS coverages resulting in significantly greater reductions in deforestation (41.26 % more effective) vs low-PHS areas. Our findings suggest that measuring PES impact as a change in forest cover alone may over-simplify analyses of the effectiveness of these programs. Overall, a landscape-scale focus appears warranted in PES program design and evaluations of their effectiveness.

Land, energy and water resource management and its impact on GHG emissions, electricity supply and food production- Insights from a Ugandan case study

Despite the excitement around the nexus between land, energy and water resource systems, policies enacted to govern and use these resources are still formulated in isolation, without considering the interdependencies. Using a Ugandan case study, we highlight the impact that one policy change in the energy system will have on other resource systems. We focus on deforestation, long term electricity supply planning, crop production, water consumption, land-use change and climate impacting greenhouse gas (GHG) trajectories. In this study, an open-source integrated modelling framework is used to map the ripple effects of a policy change related to reducing biomass consumption. We find that, despite the reduction in deforestation of woodlands and forests, the GHG emissions in the power sector are expected to increase in between 2040–2050, owing to higher fossil fuel usage. This policy change is also likely to increase the cost of electricity generation, which in turn affects the agricultural land types. There is an unforeseen shift from irrigated to rainfed type land due to higher electricity costs. With this integrated model setup for Uganda, we highlight the need for integrated policy planning that takes into consideration the interlinkages between the resource systems and cross propagation effects.

Reducing deforestation through value chain interventions in countries emerging from conflict: The case of the Colombian cocoa sector

Sustainability commitments by private sector actors are emerging as interventions to help reduce global deforestation. Much attention is placed on the forest conservation impact of these interventions in areas where commodity production constitutes a main driver of deforestation. It is, however, less clearly understood what role they could play in areas where the production of commodities is not evidently leading to the loss of forest and how they could contribute to other objectives including sustainable rural development and peacebuilding. In this paper, we examine the potential of the cocoa sector in Colombia in achieving deforestation reduction and peacebuilding simultaneously, as aimed by the country's Cocoa, Forests and Peace Initiative. Results from correlations and spatially explicit analyses show that regardless of its widespread production across Colombia, in the past fifteen years cocoa has not been an important driver of deforestation. This suggests that efforts to end deforestation in the Colombian cocoa sector emerged following global trends, and not because of an evident link between cocoa production and deforestation. Furthermore, results from spatial clustering analyses highlight areas where different types of value chain interventions may be appropriate to parallel forest conservation and peacebuilding, while interviews with key actors in the cocoa sector provide clues as to how these interventions should be developed and implemented. Specifically, our results show that narratives around approaches to achieve zero deforestation from agricultural commodities should (1) be adjusted to local contexts, (2) incorporate location-specific development needs, (3) complement existing rural development efforts, (4) enhance collaboration among actors that operate both within and beyond the value chain, and (5) apply high-resolution data to assess deforestation-commodity relations and verify zero-deforestation commitments. These considerations are particularly relevant in contexts where commodity production is not evidently leading to deforestation, as in the case of cocoa production in Colombia.

Spatial Model Of The Deforestation Potential 2020 &amp; 2024 And The Prevention Approach, Kutai Barat District

Kutai Barat have high forest cover and high deforestation rates. The study purpose to make spatial model, potential distribution of deforestation 2020 and 2024, analysis of the drivers of deforestation, compile and map the approach to reducing deforestation. Deforestation modeling done using MaxEnt and Zonation software. Deforestation sample data used from land cover maps 2009, 2013 and 2016. Deforestation rates used to estimate potential deforestation 2020 and 2024. The drivers of deforestation analyze from land cover change matrix. Prevention strategy approach by overlaying potential deforestation modeling results with RTRW maps. The model has good performance with AUC value 0.873. The validation show very good accuracy for the prediction of area to be deforested by 94%, the accuracy of the spatial distribution of the model 31%. Environmental variables have the highest contribution to the model is the distance from previous deforestation 37.4%. The potential of deforestation 2020 is 85,908 ha and 171,778 ha 2024. Oil palm, agriculture, rubber, HTI and mining are the driver of deforestation. Social forestry is expected to prevent potential deforestation 120,861 ha. Others expected programs to contribute to the deforestation reduction are community land intensification 30,316 ha and implementation of the HCV in plantation 20,120 ha.

The Rio Branco Declaration: Assessing Progress Toward a Near-Term Voluntary Deforestation Reduction Target in Subnational Jurisdictions Across the Tropics

Voluntary commitments are playing an ever-greater role in environmental governance at all scales. In the years preceding the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, a flurry of non-state and state actors signed on to various declarations and commitments to reduce deforestation as one globally significant climate mitigation solution. This paper focuses on the Rio Branco Declaration (RBD) and the 30 first-order subnational jurisdictions located in Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, and Peru that signed on to it between 2014 and 2018, committing to reduce deforestation 80% by 2020, conditional upon adequate financial support from the international community. We assess each study jurisdiction’s progress toward that commitment based on deforestation data, and examine some of the potential factors supporting or slowing progress, including the existence of commensurate targets within jurisdictions’ legal frameworks and the international financial support pledged to jurisdictions. We found that progress toward achieving the target was slow and likely unattainable in most jurisdictions outside of Brazil. Among the four jurisdictions likely to achieve the target under current deforestation trajectories, only Mato Grosso has a target within its legal framework that is more ambitious than the RBD target. We found that the international response to the RBD was sluggish and likely inadequate – with only one financial pledge made in direct response to the declaration and the majority of funding to support jurisdictional efforts coming from one source. We did not find a clear relationship between international finance pledged and progress toward the RBD deforestation target; however, more often, jurisdictions that received pledges earlier have made more progress. We explore what may explain individual jurisdictions’ performance with respect to the target, including specific jurisdictional circumstances, national context, and international support. We estimate that, if current deforestation trajectories continue, the RBD signatories in our study could contribute approximately 3.7% (0.65 GtCO2e) of the greenhouse gas emissions reduction needed to keep global warming at 1.5°C, compared with a potential 5.7% (0.98 GtCO2e) if they were to all meet the RBD target.