Deep Emission Reductions Research Articles

Identifying a Country’s Freight Transport-Intensive Economic Sectors and Their Logistics Emissions—Method Development and Exemplary Evaluation with Austria

It is unequivocal that global greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced drastically. One opportunity to quickly achieve deep emission reductions is by investigating the largest emitters first. This can be based on countries but also on the underlying sectors of local economies. Focusing on the latter, the transport and industry sectors stand out, as well as their overlap, which is reflected in the emissions from freight transport. To enable legislators and researchers to focus on the major emitters in freight transport and to develop tailored sectoral measures, we present a method to identify the transport-intensive sectors of a country. A two-part approach thereby makes it possible to identify these sectors and their value chains and to analyze the different emission structures of companies between the sectors. This suggests the relevance of decarbonizing transport from a company’s perspective and helps to understand the entrenched situation. Finally, the methodology is applied to the Austrian transport industry as an example to demonstrate its applicability. As applied research in this area has lagged somewhat, our results can provide managers in transport-intensive economic sectors with new motivation to decarbonize logistics, as well as guide policymakers and researchers on which sectors to focus first.

Post COP26: does the 1.5°C climate target remain alive?

One of the COP26 aims was to keep 1.5°C within reach by asking countries to come forward with ambitious year 2030 emission reductions targets to further pursue the necessary action to meet the Paris climate targets. We assess the mean global temperature rise given the updated year 2030 emission pledges in the context of future emission pathways considered by the international scientific community. Overall, we find current pledges are not consistent with a likely meeting of 1.5°C this century without overshoot. Meeting the 1.5°C goal in 2100 post overshoot given the pledges remains feasible, but urgent action is required to ensure pledges are met and policies are in place for the very deep and rapid emission reductions that are required post 2030.

Changing ozone sensitivity in the South Coast Air Basin during the COVID-19 period

Abstract. The South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB), which includes the city of Los Angeles and is home to more than 15 million people, frequently experiences ozone (O3) levels that exceed ambient air quality standards. While strict regulation of O3 precursors has dramatically improved air quality over the past 50 years, the region has seen limited improvement in O3 over the past decade despite continued reductions in precursor emissions. One contributing factor to the recent lack of improvement is a gradual transition of the underlying photochemical environment from a VOC-limited regime (where VOC denotes volatile organic compound) towards an NOx-limited one. The changes in human activity prompted by COVID-19-related precautions in spring and summer of 2020 exacerbated these existing changes in the O3 precursor environment. Analyses of sector-wide changes in activity indicate that emissions of NOx decreased by 15 %–20 % during spring (April–May) and by 5 %–10 % during summer (June–July) relative to expected emissions for 2020, largely due to changes in mobile-source activity. Historical trend analysis from two indicators of O3 sensitivity (the satellite HCHO/NO2 ratio and the O3 weekend/weekday ratio) revealed that spring of 2020 was the first year on record to be on average NOx-limited, while the “transitional” character of recent summers became NOx-limited due to COVID-19-related NOx reductions in 2020. Model simulations performed with baseline and COVID-19-adjusted emissions capture this change to an NOx-limited environment and suggest that COVID-19-related emission reductions were responsible for a 0–2 ppb decrease in O3 over the study period. Reaching NOx-limited territory is an important regulatory milestone, and this study suggests that deep reductions in NOx emissions (in excess of those observed in this study) would be an effective pathway toward long-term O3 reductions.

Increased forest coverage will induce more carbon fixation in vegetation than in soil during 2015–2060 in China based on CMIP6

As components of terrestrial carbon sinks, vegetation and soil carbon pools are important for offsetting CO2 emissions. However, differences in their carbon sequestration capacities and their responses to global change in the future are poorly understood. This study assessed the changes in vegetation and soil carbon and their ratios and drivers under the SSP126 scenario from 2015 to 2060, using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 simulations in China, a major carbon sink region in global terrestrial ecosystems. The content of vegetation carbon (29 ± 1 PgC) was observed to be lower than that of soil carbon (113 ± 23 PgC), and the ratio of vegetation to soil carbon was the highest in the subtropical-tropical monsoon climatic region (0.55 ± 0.12). Moreover, the total stock of vegetation and soil carbon increased by 10 ± 1 PgC during the study period, and the increase in vegetation carbon was 4.31 times that of soil carbon, because the responses of vegetation carbon stocks to increased forest coverage and atmospheric CO2 were greater than that of soil carbon stocks, especially in the subtropical-tropical and temperate monsoonal climatic regions. However, bare land encroachment on grasslands reduced their increments in the temperate monsoonal and high-cold Tibetan Plateau climatic regions. Furthermore, compared with SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, vegetation and soil carbon sinks can offset a greater amount of carbon emissions in 2060 under the SSP126 scenario, accounting for 53% of all carbon emissions, offsetting 60%–79% of carbon emissions from China under its policy of increasing forest coverage. The study revealed the important role of afforestation in increasing ecosystem carbon stocks, additionally, grassland conservation and deep reductions in carbon emissions cannot be ignored in the future. This study provides a basis for determining the response of vegetation and soil carbon to environmental factors and the realization of net-zero emissions globally.

VOC emission caps constrained by air quality targets based on response surface model: A case study in the Pearl River Delta Region, China

Because of the recent growth in ground-level ozone and increased emission of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), VOC emission control has become a major concern in China. In response, emission caps to control VOC have been stipulated in recent policies, but few of them were constrained by the co-control target of PM2.5 and ozone, and discussed the factor that influence the emission cap formulation. Herein, we proposed a framework for quantification of VOC emission caps constrained by targets for PM2.5 and ozone via a new response surface modeling (RSM) technique, achieving 50% computational cost savings of the quantification. In the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, the VOC emission caps constrained by air quality targets varied greatly with the NOx emission reduction level. If control measures in the surrounding areas of the PRD region were not considered, there could be two feasible strategies for VOC emission caps to meet air quality targets (160 µg/m3 for the maximum 8-hr-average 90th-percentile (MDA8-90%) ozone and 25 µg/m3 for the annual average of PM2.5): a moderate VOC emission cap with <20% NOx emission reductions or a notable VOC emission cap with >60% NOx emission reductions. If the ozone concentration target were reduced to 155 µg/m3, deep NOx emission reductions is the only feasible ozone control measure in PRD. Optimization of seasonal VOC emission caps based on the Monte Carlo simulation could allow us to gain higher ozone benefits or greater VOC emission reductions. If VOC emissions were further reduced in autumn, MDA8-90% ozone could be lowered by 0.3-1.5 µg/m3, equaling the ozone benefits of 10% VOC emission reduction measures. The method for VOC emission cap quantification and optimization proposed in this study could provide scientific guidance for coordinated control of regional PM2.5 and O3 pollution in China.

Study on the Carbon Emission Spillover Effects of Transportation under Technological Advancements

Regional transportation emissions reduction is the key to realizing deep emission reduction and the neutralization of transportation. Transportation development is accompanied by technological progress, and inter-regional transportation technological progress and carbon emission spillover effects are issues worthy of study. Based on the 2011–2020 provincial data of 30 provinces and cities in China, a spatial Durbin model was constructed to explore the impact of technological progress on regional spillovers of carbon emissions and the driving effect of emissions reduction. The conclusions show that the “community effect” causes direct interactions between transportation carbon emissions reduction practices in various provinces; the “acquired effect” and “leakage effect” drive technological progress between regions and cause indirect interactions between transportation carbon emissions reduction practices; transportation technology progress is more likely to occur between regions with similar transportation development. Finally, some suggestions are put forward in terms of establishing a mechanism for the coordinated reduction of regional carbon emissions, strengthening the interactions and economic connections between inter-regional transportation technologies, optimizing the spatial layout of transportation infrastructure, and building a low-carbon transportation system, so as to lay a solid foundation for the coordinated reduction of regional transportation carbon emissions.

Policy trade-offs in introducing a CO2 transport and storage industry to service the UK's regional manufacturing clusters

Government and industry in oil and gas producing nations are increasingly considering development of carbon capture and storage (CCS) as both a deep emissions reduction solution and route to transitioning extraction supply chains. We develop a computable general equilibrium model of the UK economy to investigate the economy-wide impacts of introducing a new carbon dioxide (CO2) transport and storage sector supplying national capacity to support decarbonisation of four of the main mainland industrial clusters, located in the North England and Scotland. We consider key issues including the implications of the new sector's infrastructure intensity and the need for both upfront investment and action to guarantee demand for the initial capacity. We examine the challenges of funding the sector, particularly the UK Government's stated preference to move to a ‘polluter pays’ approach in the medium term. We find that such an additional cost burden could impact the international competitiveness of industries concentrated in the four regional clusters, with consequent offshoring of industry demand and activity. The associated job losses bring potential conflicts with the UK Government's regional ‘levelling up’ agenda, triggering reconsideration of what policymakers should anticipate in terms of the ‘green growth' potential of CCS in an industrial decarbonisation context.

FORMATION OF A STRATEGY FOR INCREASING THE ENERGY EFFICIENCY OF METALLURGICAL ENTERPRISES AS GUARANTEE OF DECARBONIZATION OF THE UKRAINIAN ECONOMY

The metallurgical industry of Ukraine in wartime faced significant difficulties in its functioning. However, at the moment there is a gradual recovery of the industry. It should be noted that steel production is an extremely energy-intensive process, accounting for the second largest share of energy consumption and the largest share of CO2 emissions. Therefore, in order to control the growth of energy consumption and CO2 emissions in this industry, as well as to be competitive in the international market, Ukrainian metallurgical enterprises should not only expect maximum assistance from the government bodies and international partners in matters of logistics and sales markets, but also focus on energy efficiency issues and decarbonization of their production. While improving the energy efficiency of steel production through the introduction of standard energy efficiency measures will help the industry, there is a need to further develop and deploy a wide portfolio of breakthrough solutions to improve processes and infrastructure. This will achieve long-term deep reductions in CO2 emissions. For this activity to be purposeful rather than chaotic, individual enterprises and the industry must develop a strategy to increase energy efficiency and decarbonize their production. This article is devoted to one of the possible approaches to solving this issue. Along with a description of the mathematical model for the formation of an optimal strategy for improving energy efficiency and decarbonization of metallurgical industries, the article presents the structure of energy costs, as well as the list of significant energy usages at metallurgical enterprises. In addition, a separate place in the article is given to the issue of building an energy baseline, taking into account the provisions of modern international standards in the field of energy management system (ISO 50001, ISO 50006, ISO 50047), as well as the main factors affecting energy consumption. The paper also presents the list of typical measures for improving the energy efficiency of metallurgical enterprises for each group of significant energy usages.

Combined effects of carbon pricing and power market reform on CO2 emissions reduction in China's electricity sector

China is pursuing aggressive action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from its coal-dominated electric power system. Two key strategies are power market reform and carbon pricing. This paper investigates the combined effects of these two strategies in reducing CO2 emissions from power system operations. We develop an economic dispatch model to simulate hourly power supply system operation in China Southern Power Grid in 2018 under fifteen carbon pricing scenarios; these reflect a wide range of policy ambition, from today's carbon prices to much higher ones that aim to instigate aggressive emission mitigation. Our results show that moderate carbon pricing alone is insufficient to effectively reduce CO2 emissions without concurrent power market reform. With power market reform and as carbon prices increase, large coal units supplemented by energy storage witness higher use rates as they supplant smaller coal-fired generators, until a carbon price of 300 RMB/TCO2 phases out coal use in favor of natural gas. Only at carbon prices higher than 300 RMB/TCO2 do emissions begin to decrease appreciably. Geographic disparities emerge among the five provinces that comprise the Southern Power Grid, with Guangdong witnessing the most CO2 emission reduction at high carbon prices, while emission reductions in other provinces are negligible. Carbon pricing also dramatically increases total power system costs, even at low carbon prices. Our results show the necessity of introducing power market reform and carbon pricing policies concurrently if the goal is to reduce CO2 emissions, with the ultimate goal being a carbon price significantly greater than 300 RMB/TCO2. Because both options will be necessary, our research maps a path to deep emission reductions in China Southern Power Grid for investors, analysts, and policy makers as discussions regarding both reforms accelerate.

Untapped potential of nature-based activities for mental health: need for further research

In April 2022, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated clearly that without immediate and deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, it would be impossible to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. A growing body of research shows an increasing reaction to witnessing or experiencing current climate impacts and concern regarding apparent inaction in response, manifests as negative cognitive, emotional, and behavioural responses, including eco-anxiety. This commentary contends that nature-based activities (NBAs) have a potentially important, but currently neglected, role to play in supporting those experiencing eco-anxiety. However, existing research limitations hinder their adoption in the United Kingdom’s social prescribing agenda and they remain a largely untapped therapeutic resource that need to be mainstreamed into clinical and social care provision. The paper calls for investment in research that advances our understanding of the individual and community benefits of NBAs, the longevity of their impact, and their associated, comparative and opportunity costs.

Integration of supply chain management of hybrid biomass power plant with carbon capture and storage operation

Bioenergy Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is thought to be one of the most important technologies to realize the deep carbon emission reduction. An integrated model that combines biomass inventory management and carbon capture and storage (CCS) construction is built to analyze the operation management of BECCS plants. Biomass supply level and structure, operation costs, warehousing scale, and application restrictions are considered in the inventory management. The operation costs, learning effects, investment path, and capture efficiency of CCS are considered in the process of CCS construction. These two processes are integrated to maximize the total profit for biomass power plants under inter-temporal conditions. Jiangsu Province is selected for numerical simulation. The results show that the supply level of biomass has a great influence on the results, and the corresponding CCS technology needs to fully consider this factor for expansion. In addition, under strict carbon emission constraints, to avoid the high cost of CCS, policymakers are more inclined to achieve emission reduction targets by reducing power generation levels. Therefore, appropriate policy subsidies are needed to ensure the development of BECCS at this time.

Energy and greenhouse gas implications of shared automated electric vehicles

Automated vehicles can facilitate vehicle sharing within and between households, thus decreasing ownership rates, albeit increasing miles travelled. While electrification can achieve deep reductions in transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions, shared automated electric vehicles will have different charging needs considering their higher mileage. In this study, travel survey data collected in Toronto is used to optimize the charging needs of shared automated electric vehicles, with the objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation by choosing charging times that are associated with lower marginal emission factors. Optimized charging schedules reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50% relative to vehicles charging once they return home. Life cycle assessment of multiple sharing scenarios indicates that higher levels of sharing increase emissions. Indeed, empty mileage associated with vehicle relocation and higher deterioration lead to a higher fleet turnover. With vehicle sharing, there is a risk of increasing mileage and vehicle production emissions.

Exploring pathways to deep de-carbonization and the associated environmental impact in China’s ammonia industry

China is the largest producer of synthetic ammonia, accounting for one-third of the world’s total production. Ammonia is mainly used to produce fertilizer and is also considered as a potential fuel and new energy carrier for the future. Concomitantly, the ammonia industry is the largest energy consumer and CO2 emitter in China’s chemical industry. In this study, we developed the MESSAGEix-ammonia model with detailed process descriptions to evaluate the energy-saving and emission reduction potential that can be generated by energy efficiency (EE) improvement, as well as the transition path and emission characteristics in the context of deep emission reduction. Results show that the cost-effective EE measures implemented under the EE scenario could reduce fresh water, fuel coal, and electricity consumptions by 7%, 25%, and 16%, as well as reduce CO2, PM2.5, SO2, and NOx emissions by 33%, 24%, 24%, and 24%, respectively, by 2060. Regarding the exploration of the deep de-carbonization path, carbon capture and storage technology (CCS) increases the CO2 reduction potential to 62%, but it requires additional electricity. Meanwhile, electrolysis technology not only saves additional fresh water and fuel coal, but also reduces CO2, PM2.5, SO2, and NOx by 80%, 84%, 86%, and 84%, respectively. Furthermore, the integration of electrolysis technology and CCS can bring 98% carbon emission reduction, which is close to net-zero emission status. With the development of renewable electricity, sufficient, clean, and affordable electricity can be provided for electrolysis devices. Our recommendation to policy makers is that electrolysis of water to produce ammonia using renewable electricity is a feasible deep de-carbonization pathway.

Industrial clustering as a barrier and an enabler for deep emission reduction: a case study of a Dutch chemical cluster

ABSTRACT Industrial clusters are considered more resource- and greenhouse gas-efficient than stand-alone industrial plants, but clustering may also act as a barrier to radical changes required for deep greenhouse gas emission reductions. Here we explore how clustering in an energy-intensive chemical industry cluster may influence attainability of the deep emission reduction targets. Chemelot, located in the southeast of the Netherlands, was willing to collaborate and we adopt a qualitative system dynamics approach based on expert interviews and group model building sessions. We found that clustering may hinder reaching deep emission reductions by three reinforcing feedback mechanisms, or ‘traps’, related to: incremental changes; short-term focus; and companies acting alone. The system dynamics analysis also identified potential mechanisms to escape from these traps, notably: (1) increasing cluster autonomy; (2) activating public support; (3) promoting changes in the supply chain; and (4) attracting long-term investors. The findings can inform policymakers on how to steer industrial clusters towards deep emission reductions, and support industrial cluster decision-makers on both internal and external strategies. Key policy insights Industrial clustering may offer opportunities to accelerate deep greenhouse gas emission reductions, but it could also cause carbon lock-in because of increased physical and organizational interdependency, which favours incremental changes, short-term focus, and solitary actions rather than collective actions, at the cost of deep greenhouse gas emission reductions. To fully exploit the potential benefits of industrial clustering for greenhouse gas emission reductions, policies need to take into account the causal relations that operate in a self-reinforcing way to lock the cluster into high greenhouse gas emissions, and that can help escape them. A coordinating authority operating across the cluster is necessary to ensure effective collaboration within a chemical cluster so as to escape carbon lock-in. Policies addressing emissions along the full value chain (i.e. to include scope 3) might be mutually beneficial with the circularity and low-emission ambitions of the chemical industry.

Preface

As a continuation from the first and second Maritime Sciences and Advanced Technology (MSAT) conference on August 3-5, 2017, in Denpasar, Bali, and on August 7-8, 2019 in Makassar, we heartfully worked on the 3rd MSAT Conference “Toward Ocean Sustainability for a Better Future Through Sciences and Technology” initially taken place at Pangandaran Integrated Aquarium and Marine Research Institute (PIAMARI), Pangandaran, West Java, 5-6th August 2021 (https://msat.fitb.itb.ac.id/). This conference is one of our Memorandum of Agreement the implementations between the Faculty of Earth Science and Technology - ITB, Geospatial Information Agency of Indonesia, and the PIAMARI, Maritime Affairs and Fisheries.Topic, as mentioned above, is chosen to support Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) promoted by the United Nations. The Maritime science, and technology targets at least the SDGs no 13 and 14; Climate Action and Life below water. While several others like no.1 (No Poverty) and 2 (Zero Hunger) and no. 7 (Affordable and clean energy) are also strongly workable from the Maritime section, especially our country as we are the second-largest coastline in the world. This makes 60% of our citizens live in the coastal area. Moreover, our earth system is highly likely sensitive to climate change and might continuously affect the future climate. The global surface temperature will continue to increase until at least the mid-century under all emissions scenarios considered. Global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C will be exceeded during the 21st century unless deep reductions in CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions occur in the coming decades.Our first Conference proceeding (Volume 62) was published at IOP on 06 July 2018 (https://iopscience.iop.org/issue/1755-1315/162/1), and our second conference proceeding (Volume 618) was published at IOP on 21 December 2020 (https://iopscience.iop.org/issue/1755-1315/6187/1). The proceeding covers the important impact of the geographical position of the Indonesian Seas. We have welcomed various research findings from the aspects of Ocean-Atmosphere Dynamics, Marine Hazard and Coastal Degradation, Marine Resources, Conservation and ICZM, and Marine Geodesy and Satellite Oceanography – as have become the sessions. Therefore, in this Conference Proceeding, readers might discover the recent issue and results of research in the broad topics of maritime science and advanced technology.Unfortunately, the 3rd MSAT must be held online using the Zoom platform due to Covid-19. On June-September 2021, Indonesia was experiencing the high-risk status of Covid-19, which was under activity restrictions. We chose to keep the dates fixed on August 5-6, 2021, although we have to hold the conference virtually instead of postponing it on other dates. The reason is to keep all the speakers on schedule, and administration supports are in place. Additionally, world oceans day, commemorated on June 8, was framed for celebration. By the advantages, participants from many remote areas in Indonesia joined this virtual conference.The organizers were in 3 different cities of Bandung (ITB), Jakarta (BIG), and Pangandaran (PIAMARI). In Bandung, the MSAT committee was assigned to the faculty within several different rooms to comply with the health protocol during the pandemic. The participants who attended online on the first and second day were about 250 participants from various institutions and universities in Indonesia and teachers in Pangandaran, 3 keynote speakers and 9 invited speakers, and 53 presenters. The invited speakers were well-known scientists around the world (USA, China, Japan, Korea, Australia, and New Zealand), hence attracted some participant from abroad. The opening was opened by the Dean of the Faculty of Earth Science and Technology, Dr. Irwan Meilano, S.T., M.Sc., and ITB Chancellor, Prof. Reini Wirahadikusumah. After that, it was continued with the Keynote Speaker of the Minister of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries of Indonesia, Mr. Ir. Sakti Wahyu Trenggono, M.M., and continued with a mini session which was opened with a breakout room system (Room A, B, C, D, and E) on Zoom. Keynote Speakers were given 30 minutes to present the talk, and Invited speakers were allocated for 20 minutes talk and 10 minutes Q&A session guided by the assigned moderator. Meanwhile, every participant presents their works maximum of 15 minutes, followed by 5 minutes of Q&A session guided by the moderator for each morning and afternoon session. The event starts on time from 08.00 to 17.00. The MSAT event can also be watched through the Oceanography Study Program Youtube: Oceanography ITB (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtLdITrN051L6wpa5KtwG7A)List of the organizing committee is listed as follows, Photo documentation are available in this pdf.

Environmental co-benefits and trade-offs of climate mitigation strategies applied to net-zero-emission neighbourhoods

Main purposeTo limit global warming at a safe level of 1.5 °C, deep emission reductions in all sectors combined with rapid, far-reaching, and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society are required. The ongoing climate urgency has led to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to be the most often inventoried life-cycle indicators. But, to draw comprehensive climate mitigation strategies (CMS), adverse potential environmental side-effects and trade-offs should be assessed as well.MethodsLCA is used to assess the potential environmental co-benefits and trade-offs of a net-zero-emission neighbourhood (nZEN) in the early planning stages. CMS are designed to test for the effect of (1) mobility patterns less based on the use of passenger cars, (2) a better material use by decreasing the size of the dwellings and increasing the passenger loads, (3) increased lifetimes of buildings and passenger cars, and (4) their combination.ResultsAcross the impact categories, environmental benefits of 5–20% are shown for single CMS and of 22–42% when combined. Interestingly, the highest environmental co-benefits are found for Metal Depletion, highlighting the close interconnection of CMS and decreased pressure on resource use.The use of several climate metrics has shed light on the use of fossil fuels in the production value chains of the materials used to provide the mobility services and shelters to the inhabitants of the nZEN under study. A combination of climate metrics with short- and long-time horizon should be used to give the importance that short-lived GHG such as methane deserve in the climate debate.ConclusionTo best mitigate climate change along with environmental co-benefits on a nZEN level, measures should be taken at different points in time. At the early planning stages, incentives should be in place that promote dwellings of reasonable sizes (measured per inhabitant) along with incentives to decarbonize the materials value chains, in- and out-land. Over time, a culture of car- and ride-sharing will have positive environmental benefits. When renovating, incentives that promote the reshaping of dwellings into dwellings of smaller sizes will help to shift the sole focus on nZEB standards to multi-layers strategies.

Decarbonizing the Chilean Electric Power System: A Prospective Analysis of Alternative Carbon Emissions Policies

In this paper, we investigate potential pathways for achieving deep reductions in CO2 emissions by 2050 in the Chilean electric power system. We simulate the evolution of the power system using a long-term planning model for policy analysis that identifies investments and operation strategies to meet demand and CO2 emissions reductions at the lowest possible cost. The model considers a simplified representation of the main transmission network and representative days to simulate operations considering the variability of demand and renewable resources at different geographical locations. We perform a scenario analysis assuming different ambitious renewable energy and emission reduction targets by 2050. As observed in other studies, we show that the incremental cost of reducing CO2 emissions without carbon capture or offset alternatives increases significantly as the system approaches zero emissions. Indeed, the carbon tax is multiplied by a factor of 4 to eliminate the last Mt of CO2 emissions, i.e., from 2000 to almost 8500 USD/tCO2 in 2050. This result highlights the importance of implementing technology-neutral mechanisms that help investors identify the most cost-efficient actions to reduce CO2 emissions. Our analysis shows that Carbon Capture and Storage could permit to divide by more than two the total system cost of a 100% renewable scenario. Furthermore, it also illustrates the importance of implementing economy-wide carbon emissions policies that ensure that the incremental costs to reduce CO2 emissions are roughly similar across different sectors of the economy.

Hard-to-Abate Sectors: The role of industrial carbon capture and storage (CCS) in emission mitigation

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is an important option in the portfolio of emission mitigation solutions in scenarios that lead to deep reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We focus on CCS application in hard-to-abate sectors (cement industry, iron and steel, chemicals) and introduce industrial CCS options into the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a global multi-region multi-sector energy-economic model that provides a basis for the analysis of long-term energy deployment. We use the EPPA model to explore the potential for industrial CCS in different parts of the world, under the assumptions that CCS is the only mitigation option for deep GHG emission reductions in industry and that negative emission options are not available for other sectors of the economy. We evaluate CCS deployment in a scenario that limits the increase in average global surface temperature to 2 °C above preindustrial levels. When industrial CCS is not available, global costs of reaching the target are higher by 12% in 2075 and 71% in 2100 relative to the cost of achieving the policy with CCS. Overall, industrial CCS enables continued growth in the use of energy-intensive goods along with large reductions in global and sectoral emissions. We find that in scenarios with stringent climate policy, CCS in the industry sector is a key mitigation option, and our approach provides a path to projecting the deployment of industrial CCS across industries and regions.

Designing flexible regulations to mitigate climate change: A cross-country comparative policy analysis

Carbon pricing is widely recognized as the most economically efficient policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, its high-cost visibility creates political challenges for its implementation at a sufficiently stringent level to achieve deep decarbonization. Flexible regulations, such as renewable portfolio standards and low-carbon fuels standards, incorporate flexibility mechanisms similar to carbon pricing, but seem to face lessor political acceptability barriers. Unlike prescriptive (command-and-control) regulations, flexible regulations do not require technologically-specific compliance pathways and allow credit trading to reduce costs and incentivize innovation. Despite their potential for driving the decarbonization transition, there is comparatively little research on the design and impact of flexible regulations implemented to date. This comparative policy analysis examines government policy documents and academic literature to identify flexible climate regulations implemented in OECD countries and evaluates their implementation context, design characteristics, effectiveness, and public support. In total, 61 unique flexible regulations were identified across 11 countries and 42 sub-national jurisdictions that can be classified into six categories. Findings suggest that as jurisdictions seek to strengthen their climate policy portfolios, flexible regulations can provide a relatively cost effective, broadly supported, and complementary tool to achieve deep emissions reductions, so long as policies are well-designed and interaction and equity impacts are considered.

Emission reduction strategies in the EU steel industry: Implications for business model innovation

AbstractThe European steel industry must achieve deep greenhouse gas emission reductions to become climate neutral by 2050. New business models are often proposed as one of the key solutions but are mostly addressed in general terms, without elaborating on or systematically analyzing how these new business models are actually linked to specific mitigation measures or strategies. In this paper, we assess when and to what extent different emission reduction strategies in the EU steel industry have implications for business model innovation. Through a review of 42 recent publications on industrial decarbonization, we identify 9 types of decarbonization strategies for steelmaking and their emission reduction potential. The strategies achieve emission reductions through material efficiency, emission efficiency, or a combination of both. For each strategy, we analyze the need for incremental or radical changes in business models on the basis of a thorough reading of the business model literature. Our findings show that EU steel firms can pursue several strategies to decarbonize without having to radically innovate their business models. Importantly, material efficiency strategies, arguably key to decarbonization, imply more radical changes to business models than emission efficiency strategies. Our study is a first contribution to the systematic assessment of industrial decarbonization strategies from a business model perspective. It is also an attempt to bring more rigor to the understanding of the role of business models in industrial decarbonization.