Abstract
One of the COP26 aims was to keep 1.5°C within reach by asking countries to come forward with ambitious year 2030 emission reductions targets to further pursue the necessary action to meet the Paris climate targets. We assess the mean global temperature rise given the updated year 2030 emission pledges in the context of future emission pathways considered by the international scientific community. Overall, we find current pledges are not consistent with a likely meeting of 1.5°C this century without overshoot. Meeting the 1.5°C goal in 2100 post overshoot given the pledges remains feasible, but urgent action is required to ensure pledges are met and policies are in place for the very deep and rapid emission reductions that are required post 2030.
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