Deep Decarbonization Pathways Research Articles

A deep decarbonization pathway for Peru's rainforest

Peru holds an important portion of the South American rainforest. An average deforestation rate of 145,000 ha a year makes it the largest source of GHG emissions. Based on the drivers of deforestation, this paper proposes a deep decarbonization pathway (DDP) through the year 2050 with the purpose of taking the country closer to achieving the net-zero emissions goal. The impacts of the pathway are estimated using POLYSYS-Peru, an equilibrium displacement model for the integrated analysis of land-use changes and agriculture. The results indicate that the proposed DDP pathway, by preventing the deforestation of 4 million hectares of primary forests, would reduce GHG emissions by an accumulated 1778 Mt CO2 eq. compared to the business as usual scenario, and 497 Mt CO2 eq. more than the Nationally Determined Contributions.

Exploring deep decarbonization pathways for Argentina

To align near term action with a deep decarbonization objective by 2050, a long term low-greenhouse gas emissions development strategy is needed and involves drastic changes to the energy system and the AFOLU sectors. To help move forward the policy debate in this direction, this paper explores deep decarbonization pathways for the country until 2050 which break with existing more conservative national scenarios. It uses a combined qualitative-quantitative deep decarbonization pathway method based on the complementarity between exploratory storylines and the quantification of pathways based on linked energy-economy models. The built pathways show how deep decarbonization could be reached in Argentina along with other economic development goals and through contrasted possible routes all involving significant changes to the energy and AFOLU sectors. Remarkably, afforestation stands out as a key sectorial measure for reaching DDP. We contrast two alternative DDP Scenarios with a BAU one with specific focus on CO2 emissions, with emphasis on energy sector demand and supply alternatives. Many of the energy initiatives proposed for the BAU scenario were maintained but increased in ambition and many others were incorporated only in these deep decarbonization scenarios. While the HardPath proposes and requires natural gas use - with CO2 capture and storage - the Enlighten scenario proposes replacing it by hydro-nuclear energy. Finally, in none of the DDP scenarios is the export of natural gas proposed as an explicit energy policy objective, since little space is considered in external markets for fossil fuels, within the framework of a global action aimed at decarbonization.

Evaluating the use of BECCS and afforestation under China’s carbon-neutral target for 2060

Almost all global scenarios under ambitious climate targets rely on the deployment of negative emission technologies (NETs). Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and afforestation are two promising NET options. However, their roles in most countries’ deep decarbonization pathways and the potential economic and environmental implications have not been fully investigated. Besides, broad economic interactions and complex technical information of NETs bring challenges for traditional top-down or bottom-up models. To address the methodological issues, we integrate energy technology details into a macroeconomic framework and develop a national hybrid computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for China. Based on this, insights are provided into the deployment scale of BECCS and afforestation in China’s mitigation pathways towards carbon neutrality by 2060, as well as the induced macroeconomic and land-use consequences. The results indicate that NETs are necessary for realizing carbon neutrality. BECCS would enter the market around 2030 and the share of negative emissions provided by it would reach about 79% in 2060. The carbon removals in 2060 would be 2,118 MtCO2yr−1, 170 MtCO2yr−1, and 617 MtCO2yr−1 from bioelectricity with CCS, biofuel with CCS, and afforestation, respectively. When only BECCS is deployed as NET, more fossil energy needs to be phased out and renewable energy would take larger market shares. In 2060, most biomass would consist of cellulosic crops (43–47%) and residues (49–52%). Cropland would decrease by 6.9–8.3% due to land competition caused by NET deployment. GDP loss would be 6.4% in 2060 to reach near-zero without NETs. If BECCS and afforestation are both adopted, GDP loss would be alleviated to 4.8%. This study supplements the existing global literature to identify the local feasibility and trade-offs of NET expansion.

Deep CCS: Moving Beyond 90% Carbon Dioxide Capture.

The large-scale deployment of carbon capture technologies is expected to play a crucial role in efforts to meet stringent climate targets set forth by the Paris Agreement, but current models rely heavily upon carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies for which viability at the gigatonne scale is uncertain. While most 1.5 and 2 °C scenarios project rapid decarbonization of the energy sector facilitated by carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), they generally assume that CCS units can only capture ∼90% of the CO2 in coal and natural gas combustion flues because this was previously considered the optimal condition for aqueous amine scrubbers. In this Perspective, we discuss a small but growing body of literature that examines the prospect of moving significantly beyond 90% capture-a concept we term deep CCS-in light of recent developments in materials and process design. The low incremental costs associated with performing varying degrees of deep CCS suggest that this approach is not only feasible but may also alleviate burdens placed upon CDR techniques facing significant barriers to large-scale deployment. We estimate that rapid deployment of deep CCS in deep decarbonization pathways could avoid more than 1 gigatonne of CO2 globally each year. The principles of deep CCS could also be applied directly to the CDR strategy of employing bioenergy with CCS, which could lead to a significant alleviation of the land and freshwater burden associated with this technology.

Deep decarbonization pathways in the building sector: China’s NDC and the Paris agreement

China’s economic growth has been largely relying on the consumption of coal. The country has realized that its economic development has to be free from dependence on fossil fuels. On 30 June 2015, China submitted its ‘Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)’ in preparation for the Conference of Parties 21 (COP21). One of the important actions in China’s NDC is to lower carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per unit of GDP by 60% to 65% from 2005 levels by 2030. This study examines the efforts from China’s building sector (i.e. urban residential, rural residential and service) in achieving the CO2 reduction target stated in China’s NDC. Furthermore, this study also explores the post-NDC era and looks into the opportunities towards deep decarbonization in the building sector by mid-century for contributing to the Paris agreement. The study covers 31 provincial regions of mainland China anddisparities of climate and socioeconomic indicators across regions are fully considered. We use a bottom-up cost optimization model called AIM/Enduse to evaluate the CO2 reduction potential brought by efficient technologies in China’s building sector. Five scenarios are designed to illustrate the emission pathways through 2050. The results show that, when energy constraint and emission target is introduced in mitigation scenarios, new generation biomass contribute a lot to emission reduction. Reduction potential in the nearly zero emission scenario is mainly from the urban residential sector, and to achieve deep decarbonization by 2050, it is important to bring a significant reduction of per-capita energy consumption in addition to ci improvement both in urban and rural households. Co-benefit analysis suggests that air pollutants can also be significantly reduced by deep decarbonization policies.

Long-term deep decarbonisation pathways for Ecuador: Insights from an integrated assessment model

This work presents an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) developed for Ecuador, the so-called Ecuador Land Use and Energy Network Analysis model (ELENA). This model includes six distinctive sectors of the economy and displays the four geographic regions composing the country. The model enables to capture sectorial interactions, under a set of scenarios designed to evaluate the energy and land perspectives until 2050. The model is a crucial planning instrument to evaluate public policies, such as National Determined Contributions (NDC) and even more ambitious decarbonisation scenarios. Findings show that Ecuador's NDC are not aligned with the “well below” 2 °C target, committed in the Paris Agreement. Moreover, to achieve deep decarbonisation it is necessary to endorse disruptive strategies in which bioenergy and reforestation play a main role. To keep under the 1.5 °C temperature threshold above pre-industrial levels, Ecuador's energy matrix must be diversified with higher shares of low carbon technologies and electrification of energy end use in the transport, buildings and industry sectors. Biomass with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and biofuels could transform the energy sector in a CO2 sink.

Applying risk tolerance and socio-technical dynamics for more realistic energy transition pathways

Many energy systems models have sought to develop pathways for deep decarbonization of the global energy system. Most often, these pathways minimize system costs or greenhouse gas emissions; with few exceptions, they ignore the constraints imposed by political, social, and economic factors that slow transition processes, making them prone to producing implausible decarbonization pathways. This paper integrates a key socio-technical factor—social acceptance of low-carbon nuclear power—into an energy systems model to illustrate how it alters the optimal energy generation mix. The United States was chosen as the example, but the approach itself is designed to be general and applicable to any region of interest. An empirically grounded risk tolerance model is developed to characterize acceptance of nuclear power and estimate an upper-bound deployment limit for the technology. Illustrative scenarios are presented to improve our understanding of how the socio-technical constraints that exist in the real world can alter deep decarbonization pathways. The cost-optimal generation portfolio to achieve net zero CO2 emissions by 2050 primarily relies on nuclear power. If risk tolerance concerns constrain nuclear deployment to socially acceptable levels, deep decarbonization scenarios are up to 11% more expensive than the reference scenario and require low-carbon options to be available and replace the reduced nuclear share. Results from this novel framework improve our representation of the effect of social acceptance on the adoption and diffusion of energy technologies. They also contribute to a growing literature that seeks to firmly embed the social sciences in climate and energy policy.

Plummeting costs of renewables - Are energy scenarios lagging?

Wind and solar energy play a pivotal role in deep decarbonization pathways for the future. However, energy scenario studies differ substantially in the contribution of these technologies, as the technology selection in models strongly depends on the choice of techno-economic parameters. In this article, we systematically compare the cost assumptions for solar and wind technologies in global, regional and national energy scenario studies with costs observed in reality and with recent remuneration from market auctions. Specially, we compared the capital expenditure (CAPEX) and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) towards the year of 2050 when available with historical market prices and auction prices. Our results indicate that the trend of rapid cost declines has been structurally underestimated in virtually all future energy scenario analyses and suggest that even the most recent studies refer to obsolete or very conservative values. This leads to underestimating the future role and level of deployment of renewable technologies. We recommend an open database for costs of renewable technologies to enhance the accuracy and transparency of future energy scenarios.

To decarbonize industry, we must decarbonize heat

Summary Industry is often termed “hard to decarbonize” because a vast, inhomogeneous array of processes comprise the sector. But developing new, decarbonized process heating technologies represents a single, broadly applicable pathway to eliminating a large portion of sectoral emissions—and approximately one-fifth of global CO2 emissions, overall. We begin this perspective with a brief review of the demand for and cost of industrial heat. Then, we highlight key challenges and R&D needs in developing zero-carbon industrial heating technologies. Technologies in four pathways are discussed: (1) zero-carbon fuels, (2) zero-carbon heat sources, (3) electrification of heat, and (4) better heat management. Finally, we identify cross-cutting challenges to the development and adoption of zero-carbon industrial heat technologies, the solution to any of which would constitute a significant breakthrough on the path to industrial decarbonization.

A whole-economy Deep Decarbonization Pathway for Mexico

Mexico's current climate change policy sets the country on a development pathway which is inconsistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement. The Deep Decarbonization methodology has been used to develop an alternative whole-economy pathway to 2050 consistent with limiting warming to between 1.5 and 2°C above pre-industrial times, covering energy and non-energy sectors and achieving comparable population and GDP growth to those expected from current policies. In this pathway, renewable electricity substitutes fossil fuels as the main energy source before 2040, urban regulation and infrastructure favor public transport while electric vehicles are rapidly rolled out to both public and private fleets, and improved agricultural and forest management practices reduce emissions and increase absorptions. Rapid uptake of renewable electricity and electric vehicles will require decisive policy action, and the resulting reductions in oil and gas demand will require changes to fiscal policy and industrial strategy. This work is part of the “Deep Decarbonization Pathways for Latin America” project.

The environmental co-benefit and economic impact of China's low-carbon pathways: Evidence from linking bottom-up and top-down models

Deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs) can be cost-effective for carbon mitigation, but they also have environmental co-benefits and economic impacts that cannot be ignored. Despite many empirical studies on the co-benefits of NDCs at the national or sectoral level, there is lack of integrated assessment on DDPs for their energy, economic, and environmental impact. This is due to the limitations of bottom-up and top-down models when used alone. This paper aims to fill this gap and link the bottom-up MAPLE model with a top-down CGE model to evaluate China's DDPs' comprehensive impacts. First, results show that carbon dioxide emissions can be observed to peak in or before 2030, and non-fossil energy consumption in 2030 is around 27%, which is well above the NDC target of 20%. Second, significant environmental co-benefits can be expected: 7.1 million tons of SO2, 3.96 million tons of NOx, and 1.02 million tons of PM2.5 will be reduced in the DDP scenario compared to the reference scenario. The health co-benefits demonstrated with the model-linking approach is around 678 billion RMB, and we observe that the linked model results are more in accordance with the conclusions of existing studies. Third, after linking, we find the real GDP loss from deep decarbonization is reduced from 0.92% to 0.54% in 2030. If the environmental co-benefits are considered, the GDP loss is further offset by 0.39%. The primary innovation of this study is to give a full picture of DDPs' impact, considering both environmental co-benefits and economic losses. We aim to provide positive evidence that developing countries can achieve targets higher than stated in the NDCs through DDP efforts, which will have clear environmental co-benefits to offset the economic losses.

Transportation strategies for a 1.5 °C world: A comparison of four countries

Decarbonizing transportation in emerging economies will be one of the key challenges in global climate change mitigation efforts. In this paper, pathways are developed towards achieving a 1.5° degree scenario for land-transport for four emerging economies (Brazil, India, Kenya and Vietnam). The aim is to highlight the key opportunities and challenges for low-carbon transport in countries with rapidly growing mobility demand. The main focus of this paper is to reconcile actual and required emission reduction targets and develop plausible pathways to achieve these targets. The paper also identifies potential strategies and measures for these countries to follow these pathways. The analysis considers the contributions of “avoid” (cutting travel growth), “shift” (to lower CO2 modes) and “improve” (vehicle and fuel CO2 characteristics) interventions to decarbonisation scenarios. These scenarios aim to inform renewed Nationally Determined Contributions and shed light on the feasibility of deep decarbonisation pathways that would be in line with the Paris Agreement. Results from this study show that achieving 1.5DS would require dramatic changes in travel patterns, technology and fuels, and major intensification of current policy approaches. Decarbonization solutions will need to include greater use and investment of efficient modes, major shifts toward near-zero carbon fuels such as clean electricity, systems integration, modal shift and urban planning solutions. Although the socio-economic situations and national transport systems differ between the selected countries, some fairly similar strategies appear likely to be core to the mitigation effort, such as rapid growth in light- and heavy-duty vehicle electrification and investments in public transit systems.

A pathway design framework for sectoral deep decarbonization: the case of passenger transportation

ABSTRACT The transport sector represents 25% of global CO2 emissions, and large-scale emission reductions are needed in this sector to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement. Long term low-greenhouse gas emissions development strategies are key enabling instruments to reconcile near-to-medium term action with long term objectives. While a range of options exist to decarbonize the passenger transport sector, the detailed sequencing of actions and resulting transformations over time remain largely unexplained in policy debates. Scenarios from transport-energy modelling provide useful insights about technological strategies but often overlook other key drivers of transportation futures, including social, organizational and spatial determinants of mobility, and are not easily usable to inform policy discussions. In this paper, we introduce a new framework to design and compare long term national decarbonization pathways for passenger transportation. This framework is based on an iterative method combining detailed qualitative storylines, full scenario quantification and standardized dashboard reporting, adapted from the general Deep Decarbonization Pathways (DDP) framework. For illustration, the method is applied by four national research teams in Japan, the UK, Mexico and France, to derive country-specific decarbonization pathways. The results across countries show that: (i) strong action is needed across all types of options to reach deep decarbonization, notably demand-side solutions; (ii) deep decarbonization is compatible with other policy priorities such as satisfying mobility needs at affordable costs; and (iii) strategies should be tailored to mobility purpose, local contexts and national circumstances. The framework can be adapted to other sectors and should be further developed in the context of future policy processes. Key Policy insights Understanding deep decarbonization of the passenger transport sector requires a novel conceptual approach that articulates metrics across diverse dimensions (social, economic, energy, etc.) to increase policy relevance. We introduce a framework to design national decarbonization pathways for passenger transportation following this approach. Strong action across all pillars of decarbonization including demand-side solutions is needed to reach deep emissions reductions. Deep decarbonization is compatible with other policy priorities such as satisfying mobility needs at affordable costs. Strategies should be tailored to mobility purposes, local contexts and national circumstances.

A deep dive into the modelling assumptions for biomass with carbon capture and storage (BECCS): a transparency exercise

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is envisaged as a critical element of most deep decarbonisation pathways compatible with the Paris Agreement. Such a transformational upscaling—to 3–7 Gt CO2/yr by 2050—requires an unprecedented technological, economic, socio-cultural and political effort, along with, crucially, transparent communication between all stakeholders. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that underpin the 1.5 °C scenarios assessed by IPCC have played a critical role in building and assessing deep decarbonisation narratives. However, their high-level aggregation and their complexity can cause them to be perceived as non-transparent by stakeholders outside of the IAM community. This paper bridges this gap by offering a comprehensive assessment of BECCS assumptions as used in IAMs so as to open them to a wider audience. We focus on key assumptions that underpin five aspects of BECCS: biomass availability, BECCS technologies, CO2 transport and storage infrastructure, BECCS costs, and wider system conditions which favour the deployment of BECCS. Through a structured review, we find that all IAMs communicate wider system assumptions and major cost assumptions transparently. This quality however fades as we dig deeper into modelling details. This is particularly true for sets of technological elements such as CO2 transport and storage infrastructure, for which we found the least transparent assumptions. We also found that IAMs are less transparent on the completeness of their treatment of the five BECCS aspects we investigated, and not transparent regarding the inclusion and treatment of socio-cultural and institutional-regulatory dimensions of feasibility which are key BECCS elements as suggested by the IPCC. We conclude with a practical discussion around ways of increasing IAM transparency as a bridge between this community and stakeholders from other disciplines, policy decision makers, financiers, and the public.

Net-zero deep decarbonization pathways in Latin America: Challenges and opportunities

This synthesis paper presents the objectives, approach and cross-cutting results of the Latin American Deep Decarbonization Pathways project (DDP-LAC). It synthesizes and compares detailed national and sectoral deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs) to 2050 compatible with the Paris Agreement objectives and domestic development priorities in Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru. The first five countries analysed in detail the energy system and agriculture, forestry and land use (AFOLU) at a high level, while Peru focussed on a detailed analysis of AFOLU given its predominance in its GHG emissions. While economy-wide results were produced, this paper focuses on the electricity, passenger transport, and AFOLU results because of their current emissions, potential to grow, and identification of successful strategies for decarbonization (e.g. switching to clean electricity and other net-zero emissions fuels across the economy; urban planning, mode shifting, and electrification in passenger transport; and intensive sustainable agriculture, assignment of land use rights and their enforcement and afforestation in AFOLU). It also highlights where significant emissions remain in 2050, notably in industry, AFOLU, freight, and oil and gas production, all areas for future research. It derives insights for the design of domestic policy packages and identifies priorities for international cooperation. This analysis provides critical information for Long-Term Strategies, Nationally Determined Contributions and Global Stocktaking in the context of the Paris Agreement.

A comparison of three transformation pathways towards a sustainable European society - An integrated analysis from an energy system perspective

An energy system transition in the European Union is required to meet the decarbonisation targets determined in the Paris Agreement. To realise this transition, a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of at least 80% from 1990 levels by 2050 is required. However, ambitions are being raised towards carbon neutrality. Such transition will likely imply deep changes across all sectors of the EU economies and societies. The impacts on these sectors need to be analysed with a multi-disciplinary approach, to unveil cross-sectoral risks and opportunities of the transition. Additionally, the pace and effectiveness of the transition may be affected by technical and economic drivers within the EU. In this paper, we soft-link three modelling frameworks specialised in assessing technology transitions, spatially-disaggregated health impacts of air pollutants and economic impacts and we apply them to the study of deep decarbonisation pathways for the EU. An energy system model, TIMES PanEU, is soft linked with an impact assessment model, EcoSense, and with a general equilibrium model, NEWAGE. The application looks at three clearly distinguished but likely paths: one where the decarbonisation effort is mostly undertaken by decarbonisation of the energy supply; one where consumers take on a more active role in the decarbonisation, instead; one where ambitions are raised and all sectors of the economy must act together to achieve the targets. In the specific application, it is concluded that 80% reduction is achievable with a decentralised, demand driven system as well as with a centralised one, where the decarbonisation effort mainly comes from the supply side. On the other hand, to achieve a more ambitious reduction target, a broader technology mix and also the effort from both supply and demand side will be required. The synergy between the sectors, especially for the utilisation of the domestic sources such as biomass, will be a decisive factor for the direction of the energy transition.

The political economy of national climate policy: Architectures of constraint and a typology of countries

In the wake of the Paris Agreement, countries have yet to embark on deep decarbonisation pathways. This article explores the reasons for this limited response, taking a comparative political economy lens to identify national constraints that actively hinder climate policy progress. We discuss different metrics of climate policy progress, including emissions trends, climate legislation adoption, policy adoption, policy stringency, and policy outcomes. We then review literatures that explain varying national outcomes along these dimensions. Identified constraints include (but are not limited to) exposure to fossil fuel extraction activities, supply-side coal dependency, a lack of democratic norms, exposure to corruption, a lack of public climate awareness, and low levels of social trust. Correlation and principal component analysis of these variables demonstrates strong co-dependencies, including a North-South divide in institutional quality, trust and climate awareness that limits full participation in climate legislation and the removal of fossil subsidies. Recent trends indicate stability in corruption across the whole sample, and the continued durability of autocratic and extractivist states. We identify common constraints for five distinct country groups using cluster analysis: ‘oil & gas states’, ‘fragile states’, ‘coal-dependent development’, ‘fractured democracies’ and ‘wealthy OECD’. We highlight the need to scrutinise architectures of constraint – combinations of political economic factors that are mutually reinforcing and highly resistant to intervention.

Lowering CO2 emissions in the Swiss transport sector

In Switzerland, transportation represents 41% of CO2 emissions from energy combustion (2016), a much higher share than in the European Union (EU) (28%) or even the USA (34%). While total Swiss CO2 emissions decreased by 10% between 1990 and 2016, CO2 emissions from transport increased by 4.5% over the same period (all data from UNFCCC database). Our projections (Vielle and Thalmann, Updated emissions scenarios without measures, 1990-2025, Tech. rep., 2017) show that the contribution of the transport sector would remain constant in a scenario taking into account climate and energy policy measures already implemented or adopted in 2016. In the EU, several initiatives have already been introduced to limit the use of petroleum products in transportation. This paper presents deep decarbonization pathways for Switzerland that demand a strong contribution from the transport sector. We find that a preferential treatment of transportation fuels raises the welfare cost of decarbonization by about 18% relative to a uniform tax on all fossil fuels. This is of similar magnitude as the preferential treatment of large CO2 emitters through an emissions trading system. We also find that the preferential treatment leads to a share of fossil fuels in total energy for road transportation in 2050 which is approximately twice as high as in the uniform treatment.

Electricity Charges, Mandates and Subsidies

The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project reports identify clear emissions targets and various energy resource scenarios that can meet them. However, they do not tell us which policy levers to pull to get there. This chapter focuses on specific policy changes to electric power mandates, subsidies, and retail customer charges that can help to facilitate the transition to deep decarbonization. Existing state and federal policies regarding these tools demonstrate their potential for balancing economic, consumer welfare, and environmental goals as the electric power system adapts to various decarbonization energy resource scenarios. It will be necessary to significantly scale up and recalibrate electric power mandates, subsidies, and retail customer charges to successfully reduce carbon intensity in the electric power sector. While no one change to these tools will be sufficient on its own to achieve the deep decarbonization's goals, state regulators, Congress, and federal agencies are well positioned to design a package of reforms to ensure that the transition to deep decarbonization does not impair economic efficiency or consumer welfare. Utility regulation provides some particularly powerful tools to build on in doing so.

Air Quality and Health Cobenefits of Different Deep Decarbonization Pathways in California.

As the world's fifth-largest economy, California has committed to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. While previous studies have shown that GHG reductions could synergistically decrease air pollutant emissions and protect public health, limited research has been conducted to compare the health cobenefits of different technology pathways toward deep decarbonization. Using an integrated approach that combines energy and emission technology modeling, high-resolution chemical transport simulation, and health impact assessment, we find that achievement of the 80% GHG reduction target would bring substantial air quality and health cobenefits. The cobenefits, however, highly depend on the selected technology pathway largely because of California's relatively clean energy structure. Compared with the business-as-usual levels, a decarbonization pathway that focuses on electrification and clean renewable energy is estimated to reduce concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) by 18-37% in major metropolitan areas of California and subsequently avoid about 12 100 (9600-14 600) premature deaths. In contrast, only a quarter of such health cobenefits, i.e., 2800 (2300-3400) avoided deaths, can be achieved through a pathway focusing more on combustible renewable fuels. After subtracting the cost, the net monetized benefit of the electrification-focused pathway still exceeds that of the renewable fuel-focused pathway, indicating that a cleaner but more expensive decarbonization pathway may be more preferable in California.