Lowering CO2 emissions in the Swiss transport sector

Philippe Thalmann,Marc Vielle

doi:10.1186/s41937-019-0037-3

Abstract

In Switzerland, transportation represents 41% of CO2 emissions from energy combustion (2016), a much higher share than in the European Union (EU) (28%) or even the USA (34%). While total Swiss CO2 emissions decreased by 10% between 1990 and 2016, CO2 emissions from transport increased by 4.5% over the same period (all data from UNFCCC database). Our projections (Vielle and Thalmann, Updated emissions scenarios without measures, 1990-2025, Tech. rep., 2017) show that the contribution of the transport sector would remain constant in a scenario taking into account climate and energy policy measures already implemented or adopted in 2016. In the EU, several initiatives have already been introduced to limit the use of petroleum products in transportation. This paper presents deep decarbonization pathways for Switzerland that demand a strong contribution from the transport sector. We find that a preferential treatment of transportation fuels raises the welfare cost of decarbonization by about 18% relative to a uniform tax on all fossil fuels. This is of similar magnitude as the preferential treatment of large CO2 emitters through an emissions trading system. We also find that the preferential treatment leads to a share of fossil fuels in total energy for road transportation in 2050 which is approximately twice as high as in the uniform treatment.

Highlights

News stories concerning the imminent demise of the internal combustion engine currently seem to appear on an almost daily basis
This approach is suitable for a low-cost assessment of the contribution of the transportation sector to the general decarbonization effort, which emphasizes the interactions between this sector and the other sectors of the economy rather than the fine structural shifts within the transport sector
6 Conclusion Our simulations show that Switzerland can decarbonize, i.e. lower its energy-related CO2 emissions to 1.5 t per inhabitant in 2050, by extending the existing CO2 levy to all sources and raising it gradually from the current 82 Swiss franc (CHF)/t CO2 to 652 CHF in 2050

Summary

Introduction

News stories concerning the imminent demise of the internal combustion engine currently seem to appear on an almost daily basis. The global transport sector’s potential for emission reduction was examined by the International Energy Agency (2009), which concluded that its CO2 emissions worldwide could be reduced by 40% in 2050 relative to 2005, despite economic and demographic growth, with measures costing not more than USD 200/t These measures involve the widespread adoption of new vehicle technologies and fuels, along with some shifting in passenger and freight transport to more efficient modes, and some acceptable reduction in mobility. This paper uses a CGE model to simulate the decarbonization of the complete Swiss economy, with and without discriminatory treatment of transport fuels This approach is suitable for a low-cost assessment of the contribution of the transportation sector to the general decarbonization effort, which emphasizes the interactions between this sector and the other sectors of the. For a comprehensive review of CGE models applied to transport issues, see Robson et al (2018)

Swiss transport and CO2 emissions

The GEMINI-E3 model

10 Water transport

Findings

Conclusion