Abstract
Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is envisaged as a critical element of most deep decarbonisation pathways compatible with the Paris Agreement. Such a transformational upscaling—to 3–7 Gt CO2/yr by 2050—requires an unprecedented technological, economic, socio-cultural and political effort, along with, crucially, transparent communication between all stakeholders. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that underpin the 1.5 °C scenarios assessed by IPCC have played a critical role in building and assessing deep decarbonisation narratives. However, their high-level aggregation and their complexity can cause them to be perceived as non-transparent by stakeholders outside of the IAM community. This paper bridges this gap by offering a comprehensive assessment of BECCS assumptions as used in IAMs so as to open them to a wider audience. We focus on key assumptions that underpin five aspects of BECCS: biomass availability, BECCS technologies, CO2 transport and storage infrastructure, BECCS costs, and wider system conditions which favour the deployment of BECCS. Through a structured review, we find that all IAMs communicate wider system assumptions and major cost assumptions transparently. This quality however fades as we dig deeper into modelling details. This is particularly true for sets of technological elements such as CO2 transport and storage infrastructure, for which we found the least transparent assumptions. We also found that IAMs are less transparent on the completeness of their treatment of the five BECCS aspects we investigated, and not transparent regarding the inclusion and treatment of socio-cultural and institutional-regulatory dimensions of feasibility which are key BECCS elements as suggested by the IPCC. We conclude with a practical discussion around ways of increasing IAM transparency as a bridge between this community and stakeholders from other disciplines, policy decision makers, financiers, and the public.
Highlights
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are complex frameworks bringing together knowledge from several disciplines, e.g. energy systems modelling, land use, macroeconomics, and climate modelling (IPCC 2014)
We focus on key assumptions that underpin five aspects of Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS): biomass availability, BECCS technologies, CO2 transport and storage infrastructure, BECCS costs, and wider system conditions which favour the deployment of BECCS
IAM results that include large scale deployment of BECCS have been scrutinised from an inter-generational equity perspective, i.e. near-versus long-term climate mitigation (Anderson and Peters 2016, Obersteiner et al 2018), adverse impacts on other resources (Smith et al 2016), land use competition and social acceptability (Vaughan and Gough 2016), ethical issues and risk of use (Lawrence et al 2018), and the sheer scope of both innovation and upscaling required from an immature technology (Lenzi et al 2018, Nemet et al 2018)
Summary
Isabela Butnar , Pei-Hao Li1, Neil Strachan , Joana Portugal Pereira2,3 , Ajay Gambhir and Pete Smith.
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
