Decrease In GDP Research Articles

DETERMINANTS OF UKRAINIAN ECONOMIC AND FOOD SECURITY DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF MARTIAL LAW

The aim of the study is to find out the determinants of economic development and food security in Ukraine under martial law. The relevance of this topic is determined by the agricultural orientation of the Ukrainian economy and the problems of exporting under war conditions, which can lead to famine all over the world and a decrease in cash receipts in the budget of Ukraine. The main results of the research showed that until now Ukraine was focused on the production of law value-added goods. In addition, a significant decrease in GDP during the war and the study of the experience of the Second World War made it possible to assume that the economic decline was caused not only by war factors but also by structural imbalance and the raw nature of the economy. The agro-industrial complex of our country, on the one hand, can ensure food security, both within the country and in the world, but taking into account recent events, this is not always possible. It is worth noting that russia increased wheat exports, and Ukraine, on the contrary, was forced to reduce it. Also, a ban on the export of Ukrainian agricultural products in some countries of the EU until June 5, 2023, caused a great resonance in society due to negative economic consequences. It was proposed to extend this ban, which cannot have a positive effect on the economy of our country. Taking this into consideration, it is necessary to change the entire economic course of the country, which should take into account national economic interests, security determinants, reduce dependence on external factors, and balance the structure of the economy. The export of agricultural products should be carried out not only due to the interests of the EU but also the national interests of Ukraine.

The Impact of the European Union’s Palm Oil Resolution Policy on the Indonesian Economy Sector

Indonesia as the world's largest producer and consumer of palm oil is experiencing considerable challenges due to the enactment of the The European Union (EU) Parliament Resolution on the use of palm oil and on overcoming the issue of deforestation. The Union issued a RED policy aiming at directing the European community to use energy-efficient and emission-free fuels. The regulation comprises a rejection of palm oil and its derivative products. The ban on importing such products imposed by the European Union has caused a decrease in Indonesia's GDP by 1155.28 million Euros. In addition, this impacted the employment sector, particularly the oil palm farmers who experience a decrease in income. Despite the issuance of the European Union policy that prohibit or restrict palm oil import, the EU has dependence on Indonesia’s palm oil since they can not produce the oils on a large scale in order to meet their needs. This is a qualitative study and the data collection technique is the heritage study methods obtained from journal, scientific journals on similar topics. As for the theoretical analyses, the mercantilism approach with the aim to use economic policies to maximize the state’s wealth as a means of political power is implemented.

Water quality improvement and existing challenges in the Pearl River Basin, China

This study highlights the effectiveness of a national water quality improvement initiative on water quality in the Pearl River Basin. The dynamic characteristics of surface water quality in the Pearl River Basin from 2006 to 2018 were analyzed, and the effects of driving factors, including economy, population, land use, water resources, forestry, industry, energy and animal husbandry on water quality were determined. There was a significant improvement in the overall water quality of the Pearl River basin (except Guangzhou) by controlling the discharge of wastewater pollutants and emphasizing environmental protection of forests and disposal of domestic waste. That is particularly evident from the exponential decrease of GDP normalized ammonium (NH4+-N) and COD concentrations. The modeling of water quality and driving factors indicates water quality in the Pearl River Basin was closely related to industrial pollution control investment, afforested area, innocuous disposal capacity of domestic garbage, vegetable sown area, use of natural gas, ecological water consumption, production of sulfuric acid and mutton yields. The improvement in water quality occurred at a time when GDP was increasing providing evidence that economic development and environmental protection can occur through appropriate environmental investment. It is worth noting that although water quality in Guangzhou has improved, nitrogen pollution resulting from domestic sewage and industrial pollutants remains a severe challenge for water quality in this region.

Kondisi dan Strategi Pertanian Indonesia dalam Memenangkan ACFTA (Asean-China Free Trade Area)

This study intends to determine the condition of import and export, farmers' welfare, and food security in Indonesia in the face of ACFTA and to determine changes in the performance of the Indonesian agricultural sector after the ACFTA phenomenon. The research method used in this research is Literature Review to collect data and information about the state of agriculture in Indonesia, agricultural policies in Indonesia, Indonesia's export and import, and food security in Indonesia at the time the ACFTA was enacted. The results of this study indicate that in the implementation of the ACFTA, the Indonesian agricultural sector showed a decrease in production of 0.87% which resulted in a decrease in GDP of 0.22%. In addition, there is a possibility that Indonesia will become dependent on other countries' agricultural commodities, which could threaten the country's food security. Therefore, Indonesia has implemented several policies and strategies to overcome this, such as setting government purchasing prices and highest retail prices, developing food diversification, government agency supervision of local agricultural commodities, labeling, assessment and national standardization of local agricultural commodities. to provide incentives to farmers.

FISCAL POSITION OF THE UNION BUDGET IN INDIA DURING COVID-19

The present study analyzes the fiscal position as an instrument to measure the amount of government borrowing to require the financial position and their budget shortfall. This study traces the major current changes in the Indian fiscal system during the period 2019-22, though the union's Government adopt the fiscal rule to reduce the financial crisis during the epidemic period of Covid-19. However, the current study also traces the percentage of GDP decrease because of the problem of lockdown during Covid-19 and also studies the budget position in India. The paper concludes with a discussion on the composition of union government receipts and expenditure position in the current scenario and indicated the situation of fiscal and revenue deficit of the government budget. Finally argue that subsidy rationalization is the way forward to fund the much-needed health expenditures and transfers while maintaining fiscal discipline.

Nexus among corruption, political instability and natural resources on economic recovery in Vietnam

Vietnam experienced political unrest from its founding in 1945–2000. However, since 2000, hints of system stability have been observed. Political unrest strengthens the foundations of national corruption over time. By considering the functions of per-capita income and natural resource development, this study assessed the effects of corruption, political instability (PIS), and natural resources on economic development. We used data from 1980 to 2020 to apply linear and non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Both approaches supported the theory when applied to Vietnam. Our findings show that PIS has a detrimental impact on a nation's GDP, whereas natural resources increase GDP over the long and short term. In contrast, corruption temporarily boosts GDP, while lowering it over time. The asymmetric results over the long-term show that as corruption increases, GDP decreases, and as corruption decreases, GDP increases. The causality correlation supports these findings and suggests policies to combat lease and patronage practices and create a more transparent national environment. This will help control the obvious problems of PIS, corruption, and untapped natural resources and support the country's economic development and prosperity.

Endonezya'da Tarımın Yenilenebilir Enerji ve GSYİH Payının Artırılması: Tarım Sektörü İstihdamı Üzerindeki Etkilerin Analizi

Renewable energy capacity, agricultural sector GDP, and agricultural employment in Indonesia experienced a downward trend from 1990 to 2019. This trend negatively impacts Indonesia’s target to utilize renewable energy as its energy source, employment in the agricultural sector, and the importance of agriculture to the Indonesian economy. Based on these issues, this research examined the impact of renewable energy usage and agricultural sector GDP on the employment rate of the agricultural sector by implementing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. According to empirical findings, total renewable energy supply improves agricultural sector employment in the short and long run; however, agricultural sector GDP improves employment only in the short run and negatively impacts the long run. It suggests that renewable energy has the potency to enhance agricultural employment. The use of renewable energy is expected to be a solution for the decrease in employment in the agricultural sector along with the GDP decrease. Governments can make sure that all funds allocated to an agroecological program or policy are used to increase agricultural renewable energy use. Renewable energy regulations should be assessed based on their ability to reduce pollution while also ensuring a reliable energy supply for the agricultural sector at an affordable price.

Виробничий травматизм в Україні: епідеміологічній аналіз і виклики часу

Introduction. Accidents are one of the causes of work-related mortality and disability. According to the ILO estimates, about 2.3 million men and women in the world die each year as a result of workplace accidents or work-related diseases. In recent years, a gradual decrease in the level of industrial injuries (II) has been noted in Ukraine. Statistical indicators indicate the complexity of the situation regarding the formation of the number of injuries at work, depending on socio-economic conditions, the state of labor protection, medical and demographic characteristics of workers, changes in legislation regarding compliance with international requirements. II is closely related to the level of GDP, financial crises, as well as such challenges of the time as the COVID-19 pandemic, the conduct of military operations after the invasion of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, the occurrence of danger when performing work in the conditions of hostilities. The purpose of the study is to reveal the regularities of the formation of indicators of industrial injuries in Ukraine during the years of independence, in the conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic, during the period of martial law. Research materials and methods of studying the prevalence of industrial injuries was carried out according to the principle of continuous statistical sampling of primary documents compiled for all cases of occupational accidents first detected and registered in Ukraine, for the years 1991-2022. The analysis of II was carried out by types of economic activity. The materials were processed in accordance with the tasks set by classical methods of medical statistics, the relationship between statistical indicators was determined using the Spearman correlation coefficient to assess the relationship of individual indicators. Research results and their discussion. During the years of independence, the formation of II indicators was determined by the factors of socio-economic, regulatory and legal transformations, the number and employment of the population in the labor process. The coefficient of frequency of accidents (CFA) is on average 0.31, while in the coal industry - 7.89, transport - 1.6, agriculture - 1.14, mining and non-metal industry - 0.99%, metallurgical industry – 0.96, mechanical engineering - 0.48. The weight coefficient - CW has a somewhat different ranking, with an average Kт of 26.42, the first place belongs to transport - 65.02, the second - to the mining and non-mineral industry - 48.13, the third - to the coal industry - 36.96, the fourth - to the metallurgical industry - 32 ,8, the fifth - construction - 32.72, the sixth - gas industry - 31.08, the next - machine building - 26.32. The number of cases of COVID-19 among medical workers has significantly decreased from 2020 to 2022. A significant number of accidents were registered among those working during the performance of labor duties in the conditions of hostilities at critical life support enterprises, such as oil and gas production, state administration and defense, electricity supply, transport, engineering, health care. Conclusions: 1. Over the years of independence, there has been a significant decrease in the total number of workplace injuries. In 2022, the total number of injuries decreased by more than 40.0 times compared to 1992, the number of deaths at work - by more than 5.0 times. 2. The level of injury depends on the challenges of time in certain defined periods of the formation of the state, which causes fluctuations or a surge in occupational accidents. 3. The assessment of the relationship between GDP and structural changes in II (the Is index) reflects the percentage of fatal cases in the structure of injuries, and is one of the indicative characteristics of the state of labor protection in Ukraine. The increase in GDP in the period 1992-2014 correlates with Is rs=0.97 (Spearman correlation coefficient p<0.05), and the correlation coefficient with the number of working persons for these years reaches values of rs=-0.90 (p<0, 05). The decrease in GDP in the period 2016-2022 has the same trend with changes Is rs=0.71 (p<0.1). From the above, it can be determined that the economic factor was of great importance until 2016, and later its importance remained, but greatly decreased due to the epidemic of COVID-19 and a significant increase in hostilities. 4. Among the causes of accidents with a fatal outcome, organizational - 46.2%, technogenic, natural, ecological and social -40.0%, technical - 7.6%, psychophysiological - 6.2% prevail.

Analyzing the Causes, Consequences and Solutions of Investment in Post Reform Surabaya

Increased investment can help drive a country's economic development. In macroeconomics, investment also functions as a component of national income, gross domestic product, or gross domestic product. Investment is positively correlated with GDP or national income, when investment increases, GDP increases, and when investment decreases, GDP decreases. In the same context, Harrod-Domar developed a very legendary theory that economic growth requires capital formation in addition to capital stock. Capital formation can be seen as spending that increases the economy's ability to produce goods, or as spending that increases the effective demand for society as a whole. This requires investment to increase the ability to produce goods and services needed in the economy. Therefore, high and sustainable levels of economic growth are generally supported by increased exports and investment. In addition, Harrod-Domar emphasized that every economy must allocate a certain percentage of national income to replace damaged capital goods as an effort to grow the economy, thus requiring new investment as a capital stock.

How do Natural Resource Abundance and Agriculture Affect Economic Growth in Guinea?

This article investigates the asymmetric effects of both natural resource abundance and agriculture on economic growth in Guinea (also known as Guinea Conakry). Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach on annual data from Guinea over the period 1986-2020, the findings tend to suggest that natural resource abundance has a negative effect on economic growth while agriculture promotes economic growth. More precisely, the results show that an increase in natural resource rents leads to a decrease in GDP per capita in both the short and long run while a decrease in natural resource rents increases economic growth in the long run. Concerning agriculture, the results reveal that a positive shock in agricultural added value increases economic growth in both the short and long run while a negative shock in agricultural added value leads to a decrease in economic growth in both the short and long run.

Cross Reference of GDP Decrease with Nighttime Light Data via Remote Sensing Diagnosis

Nighttime light data is a mainstay method in confirming and supporting other traditional economic data indicators, which in turn influence business and policy-making decisions. Accuracy in and clear definition of economic data and its related indicators are thus of great importance not only for analysis of urban development and related policies seeking sustainable development, but also plays a key role in whether or not these policies are successful. Discovering and recognizing the applications and limitations of nighttime light and other peripheral data could prove helpful in future data analysis and sustainable development policy. One possible limitation could exist in GDP decrease, and whether or not nighttime light would decrease accordingly, as most studies show nighttime light increase confirms economic growth, thus affecting the reliability of the data’s correlation with economic data. This study utilizes nighttime light data in a cross-reference with GDP data during instances of global GDP shrinkage over the years of 2007–2017, split between 2007–2012 for the DMSP dataset and 2013–2017 for the VIIRs dataset. It seeks to establish through linear regression whether or not yearly average nighttime light data products show a positive correlation even during periods of economic decline, thereby providing a clearer understanding of the strengths and limitations of NTL as an economic validation indicator. Analysis shows that both years of global GDP decrease in turn also displayed global nighttime light decrease, in addition to linear regression giving satisfactory results pointing to a positive correlation over the timespan. The VIIRS data series resulted in higher regression coefficients, which is in line with the results of previous literature.

Asymmetric Effects of Human Health Capital on Economic Growth in China: An Empirical Investigation Based on the NARDL Model

Human health capital is an important factor that affects countries’ economic development. This research explores the nonlinear effect of human health capital on economic growth and assesses the asymmetry over time. We used annual data from 1978 to 2021 in China and the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to examine the long- and short-term effects of positive and negative human health capital shocks on economic growth. Human health capital is measured by personal health expenditure (PHE), government health expenditure (GHE), and social service expenditure (SSE). A reduction of one unit in short-term private health expenditure leads to a 7.48% decrease in GDP per capita. An increase in private health expenditure leads to an increase in GDP per capita of 3.51%. The positive (βPHE+) and negative (βPHE−) coefficients of change in long-term private health expenditure are 1.31 and 3.87, respectively. A reduction in short-term government expenditure on health leads to a 10.99% decline in GDP per capita. The positive (βGHE+) and negative (βGHE−) coefficients of long-term government health expenditure are −4.33 and 1.99, respectively. A one-unit reduction in short-term social service spending leads to a 5.56 percent drop in GDP per capita, while an increase in social service expenditure leads to a 5.97 percent increase in GDP per capita. The positive (βSSE+) and negative (βSSE−) coefficients of change in long-term social service expenditure are 5.76 and 4.62, respectively. Both private health expenditure and government health expenditure have shown significant asymmetry in their long- and short-term effects on economic growth. Human health capital that is rationally distributed can effectively enhance economic growth.

Topic: Environmental Impacts of the US-China Trade War and Possible Solutions

The US-China trade war has been in the spotlight since 2018. However, many papers have only examined the economic issues arising from the trade war without paying much attention to the impact it has on the environment. This paper focuses on the environmental impact of the trade war on the two direct participants, which are China and the United States. It is concluded that the main environmental impact suffered by China is the increase in carbon emissions. This has led to an increase in domestic temperatures, which further leads to economic and social problems for vulnerable populations. This can be addressed through two policies, which are using green premium to implement targeted policy and investing more into the research of the new energy industry. Furthermore, the decrease in soybean production in the United States has led to environmental problems of over-nutrition and increased demand for blue water, which can further lead to water scarcity, triggering a reduction in farmers' income and a decrease in GDP. In this regard, different regulatory standards set in each state to monitor water quality can protect and enhance water quality in watersheds. in addition, investing money in controlling nutrient overload and water scarcity is also an effective measure. Moreover, this paper gives policy recommendations that governments could take to deal with difficult situations, and an assessment of the different policies mentioned.

Does Okun’s Law and its Coefficient value, β exist? Evidence from Sixteenth South and Southeast Asian Countries during 1991-2020

Purpose: This paper retested the Okun’s Law established in the 1960s and the subsequent research on Okun’s findings that a 1% increase in unemployment would lead to a 3 % decrease in GDP), i.e. Okun’s coefficient (β)=-3 in diverse economies of sixteen South and Southeast Asia, sixteen countries.
 Design/methodology/approach: Using panel data in two models, the first difference model: (Yt -Yt-1) = α - β(Ut-Ut-1) and the gap model: (Yt -Y,) = α - β(Ut -U)were estimated.
 Findings: Results of pool ordinary least square (POLS), Fixed Effect Model (FEM), and Random Effects Model(REM) supports Okun’s Law and shows that the coefficient, β, is (-4.4) suggesting that every 1 percent unemployment rate leads to 4.4 decrease in GDP. The Okun’s coefficient varies with country. The validity of Okun’ coefficient, β= -2 percent, is found only in four. Findings of negative coefficient and its significance provides important policy prescriptions for nine countries.
 Research limitations/implications: This paper suffers from limitations. First data limitation. This paper used annual data of 30 years. Future research may include quarterly data or annual data with more observations. Second, as Hodrick and Prescott [1997] filtering approach suffers from criticism, Cobb-Douglas production function estimate may be applied for estimating full-employment GDP and natural rate of unemployment.
 Originality/value: All studies of Okun’s law studies derived its coefficient focused on the economically developed countries, this study is an exception. The survey of literature shows that there is no research of Okun’s for sixteen South and Southeast Asian countries with diverse level of economic growth. So, the result of this study is an important contribution in the literature of Okun’s law. Second, as the policy makers of these countries are facing mounting pressure of unemployment, finding the value of Okun’s coefficient is a contribution of this paper for them.

THE IMPACT OF THE INSURANCE MARKET ON THE FINANCIAL SECURITY OF UKRAINE

The need to ensure the state's financial security in the conditions of the growing number of global challenges, risks, dangers and threats as a prerequisite for restoring and preserving the stability of the national economic system was substantiated. The purpose of the article is to assess the impact of the insurance market and key indicators of its development on the level of Ukrainian financial security in order to determine the priority areas of its provision. The dependence of the state financial security level on a set of factors that have a close connection and mutual influence was studied. War is a massive structural shock to the Ukrainian economy since the total losses of the Ukrainian economy because of war, according to the general estimates of the Ministry of Economy and KSE, considering both direct losses and indirect losses (decrease in GDP, cessation of investment, the outflow of labour, additional spending on defence and social support, etc.) range from $564 billion to $600 billion. It was established that the growing number of negative security factors determine the impact of the insurance market on the financial, economic and social stability of society because an effectively functioning insurance market enables minimizing threats to individuals, society and the state as a whole. The mutual influence of the insurance market on the state's financial security is studied, which is manifested in the possibility of maintaining financial stability and stimulating economic development at the macro level through the accumulation of a significant amount of investment resources. The study of methodological and practical aspects of the impact of the insurance market on the state's financial security in the context of global hybrid threats was updated. The identification and assessment of the impact of threats associated with the state and trends in the insurance market of Ukraine were carried out using an indicator approach based on the Guidelines for assessing the Ukrainian economic security level. The limitation of the range of indicators used in it to assess the impact of insurance development on the level of financial security is proved. It is proposed to expand the list of indicators of the development of the insurance market, taking into account international experience. On the basis of correlation and regression analysis, the most significant factors of financial security in the field of insurance were identified. The results obtained can be used to substantiate the priorities for the insurance market development in the formation of the concept of Ukrainian financial security.

PENGARUH FAKTOR EKONOMI MAKRO TERHADAP RISIKO LIKUIDITAS BANK SYARIAH

This study aimed to analyze the effect of macroeconomic factors of GDP and inflation on the liquidity risk of Islamic banks proxied by FDR (Financing to Deposit Ratio). The research method used was time series data analysis with BRI Syariah Bank research sample data for the 2010-2018 period with quarterly financial report data. The results showed that GDP has a negative and significant effect on liquidity risk as proxied by FDR, meaning that when GDP decreases, the level of liquidity risk of Islamic banks will increase. Second, inflations positively influence liquidity risk proxied by FDR, meaning that when inflation increases, the liquidity risk of Islamic banks will also increase, and increasing liquidity risk will have an impact on inadequate FDR conditions. The magnitude of the effect of GDP and inflation on liquidity risk is 49.5% while the remaining 51.5% is influenced by other factors not analyzed in this study.

The analysis of structural changes in the Lithuanian economic sectors under conditions of uncertainty

The research aims to analyse the structural changes in Lithuanian economic sectors from 1995 to 2022. Structural changes in this research are understood as changes in gross value added by an economic sector during the period analysed. The greatest decreases in GDP happened in 1999, 2009, and 2020. During this period, economic crises in Lithuania were recorded practically every 10 years. The economic recession of 1999 is partly related to the Russian economic crisis. The negative growth in GDP in 2009 is related to the global financial crisis. When the COVID-19 pandemic began, Lithuania recorded zero GDP growth. The analysis of the period 1995-2022 reveals that the Lithuanian economy was constantly affected by short-term external turbulence but remained resistant to serious shocks. During these fluctuations, changes were formed in the structure of the economy. Some sectors of the economy expanded more, others - less. In 2004, compared to 1995, the share of agriculture in the structure of the economy decreased by almost 60 per cent. The share of financial intermediation decreased by 13.6 per cent, and other sectors decreased by almost 23 per cent. Between 1995 and 2004, the most intense structural changes were in agriculture, trade, and other sectors. In 2009, compared to 2004, the share of agriculture in the structure of the economy decreased by almost 39 per cent. The share of manufacturing decreased by 16.8 per cent, and construction decreased by almost 9.6 per cent. From 2004 to 2008, the fastest development of the construction sector was recorded, which is related to the active development of real estate. In 2004-2009, the most intense structural changes were in the agriculture, industry, and financial intermediary sectors. In 2019, compared to 2009, the share of industry in the structure of the economy decreased by almost 2 per cent, the financial sector decreased by 12 per cent, and other sectors decreased by 6 per cent. In 2009-2019, the most intense structural changes were in the agriculture, construction, and financial sectors. From 2019 to 2022, the most intense structural changes were in industry and financial sectors. In the ideal case, the positive result of structural changes is economic progress. During economic progress, there is an even and long-term development of all economic sectors. Because the structure of the economy is a complex mechanism, changes in it must not be too speedy and not chaotic. Only then could economic progress be the result of structural changes.

МАКРОЕКОНОМІЧНА СТАБІЛЬНІСТЬ УКРАЇНИ В УМОВАХ ВОЄННОГО СТАНУ

The article is devoted to the analysis of the level of macroeconomic stability of Ukraine based on a set of indicators, the values of which are characterized by unusual trends against the background of the war. The analysis is mainly built on the basis of determining the current and forecast values of GDP, the discount rate, the average exchange rate of the hryvnia, the consumer price index, customer funds among the banking sector, the credit portfolio of the banking sector, the ratio of reserves to the credit portfolio of the banking sector. The stability of macroeconomic indicators determines the possibility of preserving or losing potential for development, which is the basis for the formation of strategic guidelines. The quality and timeliness of the analysis, the validity and accuracy of the interpretation of the results increases significantly in the conditions of crisis phenomena and insurmountable circumstances, in particular, in the conditions of martial law in Ukraine, which is the basis for planning at the level of various economic systems and a condition for the purposeful use of resources, the increase or reduction of business activity. The purpose of this article is to analyze the set of macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine in the context of determining the prospects of its economic dynamics in the conditions of martial law. For this purpose, a study of key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine was conducted using the methodology of forecasting with the application of regression studies of time series and the autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) model. The dynamics of the main indicators of macroeconomic stability in the period before and after the start of the full-scale invasion were determined. The impact of economic crises caused by exogenous factors on indicators of macroeconomic stability was evaluated, the degree of their volatility was analyzed, which made it possible to adjust the obtained results and obtain forecast indicators (a decrease in GDP for a period of 5 years.

Analysis of the maritime networks: criticalities and resilience

Since the second half of the twentieth century, maritime transport has been characterized by specific dynamics. There has been an unprecedented growth of freight flows, in a context of decolonization, rapid globalization (second wave), and rise of emerging countries through production delocalization. Ports are key players in the global supply chain, as critical nodes at the interface between land and sea. However, disruptions of all kinds can have important repercussions on this supply chain. Maritime networks have reached a high level of optimality and concentration, but also of vulnerability, as global shipping circulations depend more and more on a handful of major hubs. The aim of this paper is to test the network impacts of the global financial crisis (2008-2009), which caused the collapse of the world demand for goods and significant decreases in GDP and maritime traffic volumes, in order to correlate them with those of the COVID-19 pandemic. Historical, daily data on containership movements allow us to trace such impacts with precision, in order to study port traffic dynamics, network topology, and geographical variations. Methods are borrowed from the field of graph theory and complex networks. This analysis contributes to the literature on network criticalities in general, while it also discusses the capacity of ports and maritime networks to recover from a major shock.

Антикризове регулювання економічних процесів в умовах масової міграції

The issue of anti-crisis regulation of economic processes in the conditions of massive population migration is multifaceted and requires interdisciplinary approaches. Ukraine's economy suffered a devastating impact during the year of the war, with a decrease in real GDP and unprecedented growth in budget deficits and inflation, as well as disruptions in logistics and trade. At the same time, a war of this scale also has a significant impact on the economies of the EU and global countries. Experts argue that the war in Ukraine may impede or even delay the achievement of UN Sustainable Development Goals, not only for Ukraine but also for the EU and other countries, especially those that are developing and more vulnerable to economic threats. The consequences of this war have already affected both local and global dimensions. The government has identified four priority sectors that are expected to become the engine of economic recovery. However, insufficient transparency, high levels of corruption, and incomplete judicial, tax, and administrative reforms diminish investors' trust, restrain entrepreneurship, and nullify economic development strategies. The anti-crisis recovery of Ukraine's economy already leads to the conclusion of the need to form optimal regional development models, taking into account the actual state of their devastation and resource capabilities during both the current and post-war periods. The scale of migration of the Ukrainian population is catastrophic. Solving the problem of labor market restructuring serves as the basis for anti-crisis regulation of the economy. According to rough estimates, the total number of internally displaced persons and refugees abroad may reach 30–40% of the population of Ukraine. The objective uncertainty regarding the duration of the war and the threat of possible freezing of the conflict increases the risks of a significant outflow of human and intellectual capital. On the other hand, the chaotic distribution of internally displaced persons across regions of Ukraine and the ruin of many enterprises and businesses lead to a labor resource imbalance. The key aspects of anti-crisis regulation of economic processes in the conditions of massive forced population displacement, as outlined in this study, as well as the main bases for restructuring the labor market, can become directions for scientific research aimed at forming effective strategies. Key words: аnti-crisis regulation of the economy; population migration; internal displaced persons; forced migrants.