Abstract
The article is devoted to the analysis of the level of macroeconomic stability of Ukraine based on a set of indicators, the values of which are characterized by unusual trends against the background of the war. The analysis is mainly built on the basis of determining the current and forecast values of GDP, the discount rate, the average exchange rate of the hryvnia, the consumer price index, customer funds among the banking sector, the credit portfolio of the banking sector, the ratio of reserves to the credit portfolio of the banking sector. The stability of macroeconomic indicators determines the possibility of preserving or losing potential for development, which is the basis for the formation of strategic guidelines. The quality and timeliness of the analysis, the validity and accuracy of the interpretation of the results increases significantly in the conditions of crisis phenomena and insurmountable circumstances, in particular, in the conditions of martial law in Ukraine, which is the basis for planning at the level of various economic systems and a condition for the purposeful use of resources, the increase or reduction of business activity. The purpose of this article is to analyze the set of macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine in the context of determining the prospects of its economic dynamics in the conditions of martial law. For this purpose, a study of key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine was conducted using the methodology of forecasting with the application of regression studies of time series and the autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) model. The dynamics of the main indicators of macroeconomic stability in the period before and after the start of the full-scale invasion were determined. The impact of economic crises caused by exogenous factors on indicators of macroeconomic stability was evaluated, the degree of their volatility was analyzed, which made it possible to adjust the obtained results and obtain forecast indicators (a decrease in GDP for a period of 5 years.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
