Антикризове регулювання економічних процесів в умовах масової міграції

Abstract

The issue of anti-crisis regulation of economic processes in the conditions of massive population migration is multifaceted and requires interdisciplinary approaches. Ukraine's economy suffered a devastating impact during the year of the war, with a decrease in real GDP and unprecedented growth in budget deficits and inflation, as well as disruptions in logistics and trade. At the same time, a war of this scale also has a significant impact on the economies of the EU and global countries. Experts argue that the war in Ukraine may impede or even delay the achievement of UN Sustainable Development Goals, not only for Ukraine but also for the EU and other countries, especially those that are developing and more vulnerable to economic threats. The consequences of this war have already affected both local and global dimensions. The government has identified four priority sectors that are expected to become the engine of economic recovery. However, insufficient transparency, high levels of corruption, and incomplete judicial, tax, and administrative reforms diminish investors' trust, restrain entrepreneurship, and nullify economic development strategies. The anti-crisis recovery of Ukraine's economy already leads to the conclusion of the need to form optimal regional development models, taking into account the actual state of their devastation and resource capabilities during both the current and post-war periods. The scale of migration of the Ukrainian population is catastrophic. Solving the problem of labor market restructuring serves as the basis for anti-crisis regulation of the economy. According to rough estimates, the total number of internally displaced persons and refugees abroad may reach 30–40% of the population of Ukraine. The objective uncertainty regarding the duration of the war and the threat of possible freezing of the conflict increases the risks of a significant outflow of human and intellectual capital. On the other hand, the chaotic distribution of internally displaced persons across regions of Ukraine and the ruin of many enterprises and businesses lead to a labor resource imbalance. The key aspects of anti-crisis regulation of economic processes in the conditions of massive forced population displacement, as outlined in this study, as well as the main bases for restructuring the labor market, can become directions for scientific research aimed at forming effective strategies. Key words: аnti-crisis regulation of the economy; population migration; internal displaced persons; forced migrants.