Decline In Investment Research Articles

Multi-attribute decision making based on VIKOR with probabilistic linguistic term sets: An application to the risk evaluation of foreign direct investment.

The multiple global environments have triggered changes in the international environment, leading to a sharp decline of foreign direct investment (FDI) compared to pre-pandemic level. To evaluate the investment risk of FDI and make optimal investment decision becomes the most important issue for investors. This paper focuses on the evaluation of investment risk for FDI. First, an index system for risk evaluation of FDI is constructed. Then, we introduce the probabilistic linguistic entropy and cross entropy measures, based on which, a programming model is developed to identify the objective attribute weights. A composite weight derivation method, which takes both the objective attribute weights and the subjective attribute weights into account, is further introduced. In view of attributes' uncertainty and fuzziness and the conflicting characteristics of some attributes, the VIKOR (the Serbian name: VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje, means multi-criteria optimization and compromise solution) method is used to evaluate the risk of FDI under the probabilistic linguistic environment. Furthermore, a case study is presented to illustrate the proposed method. The comparative analysis and some further discussions verify the validity of the proposed method for the FDI risk evaluation.

COVID-19 AND THE DECLINE IN INVESTMENT IN WEST NUSA TENGGARA: INDONESIA

This research examines the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on investment in West Nusa Tenggara (NTB), Indonesia. Using a combination of quantitative data from the Republic of Indonesia's Investment Coordinating Board and qualitative data from the Head of the Office of Investment and One Stop Integrated Services, the study investigates investment realization by district and city, sector, and investor's country of origin. The analysis reveals that even prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, investment levels in NTB were declining due to a series of natural disasters, including an earthquake in 2018. The pandemic further exacerbated the decline in investment, with many investors opting to delay their investments in the region. However, some sectors such as mining, tourism, and transportation showed improvements during the period. The findings highlight the challenges faced by West Nusa Tenggara in attracting investment and achieving regional development goals. The study emphasizes the importance of understanding a region's potential and creating favorable investment conditions to stimulate economic growth. Keywords: Covid-19, Investment, NTB

Do bankers on board fulfill their role? Corporate social responsibility, environmental concerns and firm leverage

AbstractUsing a dataset of listed Indian manufacturing firms for 2010–2020, the study examines their financial response to climate risks in the presence of banker‐directors. The results show that climate sensitivity and vulnerability exert a negative impact on firm leverage and cost whereas climate adaptation has relatively limited impact. These effects broadly resonate across firm ownership, although it differ across firm‐bank equity interlocks. The overall impact of these developments is manifest in a decline in investment. The findings suggest that policymakers need to be more responsive to firm‐bank interactions, as these can impact firm behavior and have real economic consequences.

The impact of oil and global markets on Saudi stock market predictability: A machine learning approach

This study investigates the predictability power of oil prices and six international stock markets namely, China, France, UK, Germany, Japan, and the USA, on the Saudi stock market using five Machine Learning (ML) techniques and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Our analysis reveals that prior to the 2006 collapse, oil exerted the least influence on the Saudi market, while the UK and Japan were the most influential stock markets. However, after the collapse, oil became the most influential factor, highlighting the strong dependence of Saudi Arabia's economic structure on oil production. This finding is particularly noteworthy given Saudi Arabia's efforts to reduce its reliance on oil through Vision 2030. We further demonstrate that China's influence on the Saudi market increased significantly after the 2006 collapse, surpassing that of the UK. This is attributable to the substantial trade between China, Japan, and Saudi Arabia, as well as the rise in Saudi foreign direct investment in China, and the decline in such investment in the UK post-collapse. Our results carry important implications for stock market investors and policymakers alike. We suggest that policymakers in Saudi Arabia should continue to diversify their economy away from oil and strengthen economic ties with emerging markets, particularly China, to reduce their vulnerability to oil price fluctuations and ensure sustainable economic growth.

THE EFFECT OF ECONOMIC GROWTH, PROVINCIAL MINIMUM WAGE, AND INVESTMENT ON EMPLOYMENT IN DKI JAKARTA PROVINCE IN 2018-2022

The employment problem in Indonesia is not just limited opportunities or employment opportunities and low productivity. The increase in unemployment rates is caused by limited demand for work, which is then associated with other external factors including the decline in the balance of payments, increasing foreign debt and other policies which result in a decline in economic growth, decline in wages, investment and decline in employment. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of Economic Growth, Provincial Minimum Wage, Investment, and Covid-19 Dummy on Employment in DKI Jakarta Province in 2018-2022. This study used multiple linear regression method with Generalized Least Square (GLS) model. This study uses secondary data while Covid-19 is included in the dummy variable category. The results of this study show that economic growth has a positive and significant influence on employment. Meanwhile, the provincial minimum wage, investment, and Covid-19 dummy have a negative and insignificant effect on labor absorption in DKI Jakarta Province in 2018-2022.

The real effect of shadow banking regulation: Evidence from China

I find a crackdown on shadow banking has real effects. For identification, I exploit a policy — the “New Regulations on Asset Management” (NRAM) — that restricts the issuance of wealth management products (WMP) in China. I show firms with high WMP exposure experience a decline in investments. The effects are pronounced for firms that are more profitable, have higher revenue growth, and are more financially constrained. Exploration of the possible channels of these effects shows a decline in the credit supply of banks that relied more on WMPs, driven by the fall in their shadow banking activities.

Analysis of the Impact of Covid-19 on Chinese Venture Capital Industry

The Covid-19 pandemic has hit various industries across the world at an extremely fast pace since its emergence. This research uses real sample data, covering the status quo and attribution analysis of China's venture capital industry after Covid-19. The findings reveal that there has been a decline in early-stage investments, while investments in rounds A to C have increased since 2019. The growth rate of venture capital projects after Covid-19 has been concentrated in industries such as advanced manufacturing, healthcare, traditional manufacturing, business services, and meta-industry. Specific subsectors like biotechnology and pharmaceuticals, as well as integrated circuits, have experienced significant increases in venture capital activity. Government policies have also played a role in shaping the industry, with regulations encouraging early and small investments in technology. Additionally, the "domestic substitution" strategy has influenced venture capital investment in advanced manufacturing. These findings indicate that China's venture capital is greatly affected by policy, which is reflected in the investment industry trend, amount and rounds in recent years.

Did High Leverage Render Small Businesses Vulnerable to the COVID‐19 Shock?

AbstractUsing supervisory data on small and midsized nonfinancial enterprises (SMEs), we find that those SMEs with higher leverage faced tighter constraints in accessing bank credit after the COVID‐19 outbreak in spring 2020. Specifically, SMEs with higher pre‐COVID leverage obtained a smaller volume of new loans and had to pay a higher spread on them during the pandemic period. Consistent with an inward shift in loan supply, these effects were concentrated in loans originated by banks with below‐median capital buffers. Highly levered SMEs that relied on low‐capital large banks for funding before the pandemic were not able to substitute to other sources of debt financing and thus experienced more of a reduction in total debt as well as a decline in investment and employment. On the other hand, the unprecedented public support, especially the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), mitigated the adverse real effect stemming from bank credit constraints.

A cost-effective and high-efficient EV shared fast charging scheme with hierarchical coordinated operation strategy for addressing difficult-to-charge issue in old residential communities

Charging infrastructures are being deployed widely in urban and rural areas to solve the so-called “last one-kilometer” charging problem. However, for old residential communities, the existing difficult-to-charge issue is not easily solved solely by the widespread deployment of charging infrastructure owing to limited spaces, complex reconstruction, and huge costs. In this context, this paper introduces a cost-effective and high-efficient shared fast charging scheme for old residential communities. The comprised registration-based queuing charging mechanism is proposed to schedule electric vehicle (EV) charging. An integrated and multi-stage power electronic device called smart interlinking unit (SIU) is introduced for grid reconstruction. The SIU-based charging station architecture features flexible control capability, enabling DC power supply for terminal EV chargers. For this architecture, a novel hierarchical coordinated operation strategy is designed, comprising the upper-level real-time vehicle-to-grid (V2G) dispatching and lower-level coordination strategies. Case studies demonstrate that the proposed scheme could accommodate 40 % EV penetration, while exhibiting a significant decline in system investment and occupied area compared to the slow charging scheme. Additionally, a 1.3 % improvement in average transfer efficiency is verified under this architecture. The proposed strategy is proven to realize a prominent power peak-shaving and valley-filling, effective transformer load balance, and DC voltage restoration.

Cheaper solar, cleaner grid?

Although wind capacity cost is not expected to experience large changes in the near future, solar capacity cost is projected to drop by 45% in roughly thirty years. Using an analytical model and a dynamic structural simulation model, we show that wind energy capacity investment first increases but then decreases under the projected solar cost decline. Results indicate that when solar cost drops from $880/kW to $700/kW, CO2 emissions increase by 12.9% due to the decline in wind energy investment, indicating that cheaper solar cost does not necessarily imply a cleaner grid without any carbon policy intervention. However, if the regulator requires a minimum of 36% renewable penetration rate, social welfare from renewable investment when solar cost arrives at $700/kW would increase by $0.74 billion/year. This study illustrates the importance of policies such as the renewable portfolio standards under future decline in solar capacity cost if a carbon tax is politically infeasible.

Economic reform in Iraq after 2014 (obstacles and prospects)

The study deals with the difficulties facing the economic reform process in Iraq, in light of the economic and political challenges that the country faces, particularly since 2014, as a result of the dual crisis that afflicted the Iraqi economy, as a result of the dominance of ISIS gangs over a third of the area of Iraq, in addition to the sharp decline in oil prices.
 The process of economic reform in Iraq faces many obstacles, foremost of which is the rentier nature of the Iraqi economy and the spread of corruption, in addition to the poor infrastructure and the decline in foreign investments.
 In order to achieve effective economic reform in Iraq, comprehensive reform measures should be implemented aimed at improving economic conditions, improving infrastructure and attracting foreign investments, in addition to combating corruption and dealing with structural obstacles that impede the process of economic reform in Iraq. This requires enhancing transparency and improving financial and banking management, as well as strengthening the capacities of governmental and private institutions to participate in the economic reform process.

Boko Haram Terrorism and Socio-Economic Development in Borno State, Nigeria

The violent extremist group, Boko Haram, operating in Northeast Nigeria has severely damaged the region's infrastructures and left thousands of people displaced. The incessant violent attacks had caused serious disruption and decline in economic activities, investment and education. This would have substantial implication for the socioeconomic development of the North-East generally, and Borno state particularly. Borno state is the epicenter of Boko Haram terrorism in Nigeria’s least developed geo-political zone. Terrorist activities over the years have further worsened the people’s already difficult socioeconomic conditions. Thus, the study adopted qualitative methodology to examine the effect of terrorism on Borno state’s socio-economic development. Hinged on state fragility theory, the study argued that whereas several efforts have been made to combat terrorism, Nigeria’s fragile and weak system greatly hampered these efforts. Considering the essentiality of education for long-term development, incessant abductions of pupils and disruptions of educational activities have further jeopardized the state's chances of development. The study found that terrorism has dealt a terrible blow on business activities, mobility, investment and educational opportunities in Borno state. In order to engender sustainable development, it is imperative that the Nigerian government, domestic stakeholders and international development partners intensify collaboration to address the menace of terrorism in Nigeria. Keywords: Boko-Haram, Displacement, fragility, Socio-economic development, Terrorism

Estimation and Analysis of the Agricultural Investment Model in Iraq (1990-2020) using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Methodology

In this research, the effects of some financial and economic determinants of agricultural investment in Iraq during the period (1990-2020) were analyzed using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology. In this context, agricultural loans, inflation rate, budget deficit, exchange rate, and financial allocations to support agricultural projects were chosen as determinants of agricultural investment. The problem of the research is that the Iraqi agricultural sector possesses many components and capabilities that encourage investment, but it suffers from low investments directed to it. This is not commensurate with the importance of this sector, which negatively affects the rates of agricultural development and the decline in the agricultural sector’s ability to increase the rates of self-sufficiency in agricultural products. The research aimed to know the economic determinants and the extent of their impact on investment in the Iraqi agricultural sector. An inferential analytical approach was used based on estimating the autoregressive distributed lag model and demonstrating its suitability to the research data by testing statistical hypotheses related to the model. The data were analyzed and econometric models were estimated using econometrics and time series analysis software Eivews-12. The results of estimating the long-run relationship showed that all determinants have significant effects on agricultural investment except the inflation rate, the most influential of these determinants is the exchange rate, which negatively affects agricultural investment as the dollar exchange rate increases by one dinar, this leads to a decline in agricultural investment by (1.444854) million dinars. Then agricultural loans with a positive impact where an increase in the agricultural loans by one million dinars is offset by an increase in agricultural investment by (53,057) dinars. Followed by financial allocations for agricultural projects with a positive impact, where every increase in investment allocations by one million dinars will lead to an increase in agricultural investment by (422) dinars. And finally, the public budget deficit with a negative impact on agricultural investment, where every increase in the budget deficit by one million dinars will be offset by a decline in agricultural investment by (50) dinars. The joint integration test showed a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic and financial determinants and agricultural investment. The research recommends the need for the state to implement a package of policies and procedures to activate the role of variables affecting agricultural investment, which contribute to attracting local and foreign investments, most notably maintaining a stable exchange rate for the local currency and increasing the volume of agricultural loans provided.

Aggregate and disaggregate impact of natural resources on sustainable development: New evidence from the latest institutional data

The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of institutional quality (IQ) and natural resources (NR) on sustainable development (SD) in 107 developing countries, using instrumental variable-generalized method of moment (IV-GMM) method. The study finds that NR tends to impede SD in developing countries, especially in resource-rich nations where NR is a significant component of national wealth. However, the impact of NR on SD varies depending on the type of resource. Point resources have a negative effect on SD, while diffuse resources do not show a significant impact. The study also provides evidence supporting the conditionalist view of the resource curse, demonstrating that higher IQ can mitigate the negative effects of NR on SD. The study establishes a threshold IQ value that must be met to transform the resource curse into a blessing. Conversely, a decline in IQ may lead to a resurgence of the resource curse and a decline in productive asset investment. Based on these findings, policymakers must carefully consider the type of NR being exploited to develop policies that are tailored to the unique characteristics of each resource type. This will help them to optimize resource exploitation while minimizing negative impacts on society and the environment.

Applications of Energy Storage Systems in Enhancing Energy Management and Access in Microgrids: A Review

As the world’s population continues to grow and the demand for energy increases, there is an urgent need for sustainable and efficient energy systems. Renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar power, have the potential to play a significant role in meeting this demand, but their intermittency can make integration into existing energy systems a challenge. Moreover, the development of sustainable energy systems has become even more critical in recent years, due to a confluence of events, including the decline in fuel prices, geopolitical conflicts, and the recent COVID-19 pandemic. The decrease in fuel prices has led to a decline in investment in renewable energy and has slowed the transition to sustainable energy systems. Additionally, geopolitical conflicts and pandemics have highlighted the need for resilient and self-sufficient energy systems that can operate independently of external factors. Also, energy storage technologies play a critical role in achieving this goal by providing reliable backup power and enabling microgrids to operate independently of the larger power grid. As such, developing efficient and effective energy storage technologies is essential for creating sustainable energy systems that can meet the demands of modern society while mitigating the impact of external factors. In this regard, this work provides an overview of microgrids’ latest energy storage technologies, including their applications, types, integration strategies, optimization algorithms, software, and uncertainty analysis. Energy storage technologies have a wide range of applications in microgrids, including providing backup power and balancing the supply and demand of energy. Different energy storage techniques have been discussed, including batteries, flywheels, supercapacitors, pumped hydro energy storage, and others. Moreover, integration strategies of energy storage in microgrids, models, assessment indices, and optimization algorithms used in the design of energy storage systems are presented in detail. The capabilities of software used in energy storage sizing are explored. Further, uncertainty analysis in modeling energy storage devices is presented and discussed. This state-of-the-art technology has been prepared to demonstrate the effectiveness of energy storage technologies in microgrids, providing valuable insights for future developments in the field.

The Russia-Ukraine war, soaring food prices, and the Turkish economy: insights from computable general equilibrium

The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has led to considerable human suffering and raised concerns regarding the potential implications for the global economy. Türkiye, as a neighboring country and a major player in the region, maintains close ties with Ukraine and Russia and heavily relies on agricultural imports from both countries making it susceptible to market shocks caused by the war. In this research paper, we examine the economic impact of war-induced soaring food prices on the Turkish economy using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, which is a widely used tool for simulating the effects of shocks and policy changes on a country’s economy. We considered two utility functions with varying elasticity parameters to explore both micro-level and macro-level impacts of the price shock, encompassing household demand, industrial production, price and trade dynamics, income, investment, and welfare implications. The findings reveal significant effects on agricultural imports of crops (wheat, maize, barley, rice, and cereal grains), fruit and vegetables, and oil products, leading to an increase in both import and domestic prices, resulting in food inflation in the country. Additionally, the findings show that while the trade balance for the agricultural sector improved, the services, manufacturing, and forestry sectors have experienced an increased trade deficit. Furthermore, the war has caused a decline in foreign direct investment flowing into the country. Finally, the war-led price shock resulted in an estimated income loss of 0.2 or 0.8 percent of real GDP depending on the utility function, and a significant welfare loss. Based on these findings, several policy recommendations were discussed. The findings of the study highlight the importance of considering the interplay between food prices and micro and macroeconomic indicators.

ЭКОНОМИКА ПРОМЫШЛЕННЫХ ПРЕДПРИЯТИЙ: ВЛИЯНИЕ ПАНДЕМИИ COVID-19 И ЕЕ ПОСЛЕДСТВИЯ В УДМУРТСКОЙ РЕСПУБЛИКЕ

The article deals with the problems that arose during the pandemic of a new disease on a global scale. Before the outbreak of a new infection in the Chinese province of Wuhan in December 2019, nothing was known about the COVID 19 virus of the coronavirus family. But in a matter of days and weeks, the disease spread around the world and claimed the lives of thousands of people, which led to the need for quarantine measures and the ensuing crisis. The industry turned out to be particularly vulnerable during this period due to the fact that the majority of employees in the sector are directly employed in production, and work is often difficult or impossible to perform remotely, it is not always possible to ensure social distancing at workplaces in workshops, warehouses, and logistics. The work of many industrial enterprises had to be stopped, each day of downtime brought losses and was measured in millions of lost profits. The decline in industrial production is one of the reasons for the slowdown in economic growth. A shock in effective supply and demand, disruptions in value chains, and a decline in investment – all these factors have a negative impact on all areas of economic activity. As a unique phenomenon that has affected the global economy, the pandemic is of interest in terms of analyzing its consequences for individual regions and regions of the country, industries and activities. This article discusses in more detail the reflection of the coronavirus pandemic on the dynamics of socio-economic indicators of the Udmurt Republic and, in particular, at the industrial enterprises of the region, analyzes the main qualitative changes in people's lives. The main trends in the development of business and society are revealed, and fundamental approaches and actions to adapt to new realities are proposed.

Is a green world real or a dream? A look at green growth from green innovation and financial development: Evidence from fragile economies

The growing concerns of environmental degradation call for attaining higher green growth (GRG) in both developing and developed countries. Therefore, achieving a higher GRG has been a main concern of policymakers worldwide. To this end, a comprehensive policy framework is needed to attain higher level of GRG and sustainable development goals (SDGs). In doing so, this study is an earliest attempt that investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty, green innovation and financial development on GRG using the data of selected fragile countries during 1996–2019. For this purpose, we use different preliminary tests for checking the reliability of the data and panel quantile regression for testing the association among the variables. The empirical results indicate that economic policy uncertainty, green innovation and financial development contribute to the growth of green economy. The positive association of economic policy uncertainty with GRG is due to the decline in investment and overall energy consumption pattern. Based on the empirical results, this study proposes some policy implications to achieve higher level of GRG and different targets of SDG 08 (economic growth), SDG 09 (innovations), and SDG 13 (climate change).

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Oil Revenue on Economic Growth in Nigeria

Abstract Many emerging economies, particularly oil-rich countries such as Nigeria, have neglected the key drivers of growth, and consequently resulting in a decline in investment and employment. In the midst of this, the current study sought to examine the extent to which foreign direct investment and oil revenue impact Nigerian economic growth. The estimation was done using ordinary least squares (OLS) techniques, and the Granger causality test was used to determine the direction of causality between FDI, oil revenue, and economic growth using annual time series data from 1991 to 2019. Hence, recognising that annual time series are high-frequency data, all the variables were subjected to OLS assumptions. The empirical findings revealed that FDI and oil revenue significantly impacted growth. Accounting for the impact of economic activities reflected in the role of financial inflow and outflow on economic growth, a significant and positive relationship was found. This implies that international monetary transactions between entities captured in the current account balance are key determinants of growth in Nigeria. Further evidence revealed that variables such as real exchange rate, inflation and interest rates significantly determine economic growth in Nigeria. As such, this finding was further supported by their interactive effects, revealing an inverse and significant influence on economic growth. The Granger causality results show bidirectional causality between oil revenue and growth, as well as between oil revenue and foreign direct investment in Nigeria. The robustness test, which employs GDP per capita and GDP growth as proxies for economic growth, is consistent with empirical evidence. As a result, FDI and oil revenues are important drivers of Nigeria's growth, ceteris paribus.

Effects of policy and economic uncertainty on investment activities and corporate financial reporting: a study of developing countries in Asia-Pacific

PurposeThis study investigates the impact of government and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on companies' business operations, especially risk-taking tendencies and corporate financial reporting quality (FRQ).Design/methodology/approachThe study employs the generalised least squares regression model. The final sample comprised 27,376 company-year observations from eight countries in the Asia-Pacific region.FindingsEPU has a negative and significant effect on investment activity and FRQ. Higher EPU leads to a decline in investment and FRQ.Research limitations/implicationsThere are several limitations in this study. First, the authors used abnormal investments to measure investments, without considering the degree of irreversibility investment objectives. Second, although control variables are included at the company and country levels, they may only partially control for companies' mitigation effects. Third, the sample is limited to developing countries with unique characteristics in Asia-Pacific; therefore, the findings cannot be generalised.Practical implicationsThe findings can help investors, analysts and regulators evaluate EPU's impact on companies' business activities by offering an overview regarding the decline in investment efficiency and FRQ. The results can also be used as input for regulators in formulating policies that encourage companies to regulate investment levels without harming other stakeholders and maintain FRQ during periods of uncertainty.Originality/valueThis research provides intriguing insights into EPU's effects on companies' investment activity and FRQ in developing countries, which are sensitive to changes in macroeconomic conditions.