Daily Circulation Research Articles

Marketing Communication Management Strategies of Print Media in the Digital Era (An Integrated Marketing Communication Perspective in Maintaining Newspaper Circulation at the Bandung Kexpres Networking Public Daily)

Along with the times, newspapers have become one of the business commodities that can survive even though they are slowly starting to fall. So, to continue to maintain the life of a print media or newspaper business through consistent newspaper circulation, it is necessary to implement a particular strategy to defend against online media attacks. Focus in this research in general, this research focuses on knowing how the Bandung Express Networking Daily carries out the Integrated Marketing Communications (IMC) Strategy. In particular, this research focuses on knowing the Integrated Marketing Communications (IMC) Strategy in maintaining the daily circulation of newspapers in Bandung Express Networking. The research question is: How does the Integrated Marketing Communications (IMC) strategy maintain the newspaper's daily circulation? What are the obstacles and implementation of the Integrated Marketing Communications (IMC) strategy carried out by the Bandung Express Networking Daily. The results in this study are Pasundan Express Privileges. Print media advertisements used by Bandung Express Networking include men inserting their names on the product packaging for the Pasundan Express newspaper. Sales promotions. Games, both in content without prizes on Instagram social media and games with prizes. Public Relations and Publicity. The talk show is a form of education and promoting the circulation of the Bandung Express Networking Newspaper, Personal Selling. The Bandung Express Networking journalist team. Here, the media team and the Bandung Express Networking journalists play the most role in personal selling. Direct marketing. Through the Bandung Express Networking website. Com is the official website of Bandung Express Networking, where news and information about newspaper circulation and orders for transactions can be made on this website.

The driving of North American climate extremes by North Pacific stationary-transient wave interference

Wave interference between transient waves and climatological stationary waves is a useful framework for diagnosing the magnitude of stationary waves. Here, we find that the wave interference over the North Pacific Ocean is an important driver of North American wintertime cold and heavy precipitation extremes in the present climate, but that this relationship is projected to weaken under increasing greenhouse gas emissions. When daily circulation anomalies are in-phase with the climatological mean state, the anomalous transport of heat and moisture causes the enhanced occurrence of cold extremes across the continental U.S. and a significant decrease of heavy precipitation extremes in the western U.S. In a future emissions scenario, the climatological stationary wave over the eastern North Pacific weakens and shifts spatially, which alters and generally weakens the relationship between wave interference and North American climate extremes. Our results underscore that the prediction of changes in regional wave interference is pivotal for understanding the future regional climate variability.

Interpretable convolutional neural network for analyzing precipitation in the pre-rainy season of South China

Abstract The research and application of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) on statistical downscaling have been hampered by the fact that deep learning is highly dependent on sample size and is considered to be a black-box model. Therefore, a CNN model with transfer learning (CNN-TL) is proposed to study the pre-rainy season precipitation of South China. First, an augmented monthly dataset is created by sliding a fixed-length window over the daily circulation field and precipitation data for the entire year. Next, a base CNN network is pretrained on the augmented dataset, and then the network parameters are tuned on the actual monthly dataset from South China. Finally, guided backpropagation is conducted to obtain the distribution regions of the key features and explain the net. The coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE) show that the CNN-TL model has higher explanatory power and better fitting performance than the feature extraction-based random forest (RF). Compared with the base CNN, the transfer learning approach can improve the explanatory power of the model by 10.29% and reduce the average RMSE by 6.82%. In addition, the interpretation results of the model show that the critical regions are primarily South China and its surrounding areas, including the Indochinese Peninsula, the Bay of Bengal, and the South China Sea. Furthermore, the ablation experiments and composite analysis illustrate that these regions are very important.

Prevalent atmospheric and oceanic signals of the unprecedented heatwaves over the Yangtze River Valley in July–August 2022

Unprecedented heatwaves attacked the Yangtze River valley (YRV) in July–August of 2022. The heatwave-favorable circulation pattern for the YRV is identified by using a self-organizing map. Result shows that the dominant daily circulation pattern driving heatwaves in the YRV is the East Asian anticyclonic pattern (EAAP), characterized by an anomalous deep anticyclone over the East Asian mid-latitudes. Remarkably, the unprecedented frequent occurrence of EAAP in 2022 contributes about 84.6% of the temperature anomalies in the 35 YRV hot days, which is the key dynamical factor for the heatwave in 2022. Physical mechanisms for the occurrence of EAAP are revealed on interannual and interdecadal time scales. On interannual time scale, the dipole sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the North Atlantic, characterized by warm and cold SST anomalies in the midlatitudes and subtropics, respectively, exert an important influence on the EAAP days. This dipole SST pattern is unprecedentedly strong in 2022. It facilitates the EAAP through the maintenance of the coupled British–Okhotsk Corridor pattern and the Silk Road pattern in the mid-latitudes. Additionally, the persistent cold SST anomalies in tropical Indian ocean and the central-eastern Pacific from the preceding spring to summer contribute to cooling of the tropical troposphere and induce easterly anomalies in the East Asian subtropics, thereby further promoting the occurrence of EAAP. On interdecadal time scale, the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation may establish favorable circulation conditions for the occurrence of the EAAP through modulating the interdecadal Silk Road pattern. These findings improve our understanding of the physical mechanisms for driving extreme heatwaves in the YRV and have an implication for enhancing regional heatwave prediction.

On the Examination of the Relationship between Mean and Extreme Precipitation and Circulation Types over Southern Romania

The main goal of the present study is to identify the prevailing atmospheric circulation patterns (circulation types) that are associated with the occurrence of precipitation (both mean and extreme) over southern Romania. A daily circulation type calendar derived from an automatic and objective classification scheme is used in synergy with the daily precipitation time series from five weather stations in the study area for a sixty-year period (1961–2020). Both mean and extreme precipitation do not show statistically significant trends, except for the annual precipitation at Constanța, for the value with daily precipitation totals greater than the 95th percentile at Craiova and the number of days exceeding the 99th percentile at Buzău and Râmnicu -Vâlcea, where significant negative trends were noticed. Moreover, the precipitation trends were analyzed in relation to the atmospheric circulation types. Non-significant positive trends were observed for the precipitation amounts (annually, winter, spring, and autumn) corresponding to very rainy circulation types (C, Cwsw), while for summer, the equivalent trends were negative. Moreover, it became evident that during extreme precipitation events, the predominant circulation types (C, Cwsw) are associated with western or almost western atmospheric circulation and Mediterranean- or Atlantic-originated depressions.

Comparison of the characteristics of compressed air energy storage in dome-shaped and horizontal aquifers based on the Pittsfield aquifer field test

Most studies have suggested that aquifers with anticlinal structures are the most favorable structures for compressed air energy storage (CAES) in aquifers because of their trapping ability, but this limits the potential locations for CAES plants, as horizontal aquifers are very common only in offshore areas rich in wind power. The comparison of the characteristics of CAES in dome-shaped and horizontal aquifers can help in understanding the quantitative differences between them. In this study, based on Pittsfield aquifer field test strata and parameters, the characteristics of CAES in dome-shaped and horizontal aquifers were investigated using a numerical simulation method by establishing two comparable conceptual models of a dome-shaped aquifer and a horizontal aquifer. Reasonable matches between the monitored data and simulated results were obtained for the initial air bubble development period of the Pittsfield aquifer field test. Comparisons of the initial air bubble, air cycling performance and energy recovery efficiency were carried out with the same calculation settings for the dome-shaped and horizontal aquifers. In the initial air bubble development period, when the same air volume was injected into the dome-shaped and horizontal aquifers, the radius of the air–water interface in the horizontal aquifer was 16.7% larger than that in the dome-shaped aquifer. In the air cycling period, an isothermal cycle type with a constant injection and production air pressure was designed. The energy recovery efficiency of CAES in aquifers is calculated in terms of the concept of exergy. In the case of isothermal compressor work and ignoring the energy loss in the compressor system, the energy recovery efficiency of the horizontal aquifer can reach approximately 80% of that in the dome-shaped aquifer. The effects of wellbore injection/production length and circulation mode on the performance of CAES in both aquifers were investigated. Wellbore injection/production length has obvious impacts on air mass flow rates during initial air bubble development and subsequent cycling, and a longer wellbore injection/production length can provide greater capacity. A comparison between the daily and weekly circulation periods in the dome-shaped and horizontal aquifers showed that the daily circulation has an efficiency advantage at the same energy storage scale, and the energy recovery efficiency of the horizontal aquifer in the weekly circulation can reach approximately 74% of that of the dome-shaped aquifer. In addition, a constant flow rate injection/production gas daily cycle mode was investigated, and the results showed that this mode has higher energy recovery efficiency than the constant pressure cycle mode, and the horizontal aquifer can reach 88.39% of the efficiency of the dome-shaped aquifer. The comparison of the characteristics of CAES in dome-shaped and horizontal aquifers shows that horizontal aquifers may be a potential choice for the storage media of CAES in the case that there are no suitable aquifers with anticlinal structures in offshore areas.

Identification of equatorial waves using Hough function vectors

AbstractEquatorial waves are essential features of the tropical atmosphere dynamics, and their diagnosis is relevant for both operational and climate analysis. Here, we present a method for the identification of equatorial waves using the multivariate spatial structures of the eigensolutions of the linearized shallow‐water equations over the sphere, named Hough function vectors. The method does not require any a priori space–time filtering to separate westward‐ and eastward‐moving waves, and it can be applied to instantaneous or daily circulation fields. The wave types (Kelvin, Rossby, mixed Rossby–gravity, inertio‐gravity) are unambiguously identified by the intrinsic dynamical relationship between the horizontal wind components and geopotential fields represented in the multivariate meridional structures of the Hough function vectors. Both free and convectively coupled equatorial waves can be diagnosed. Moreover, different time filterings can be applied a posteriori, depending on the purposes of the analysis. This article is written as a proof of concept, and direct comparisons are made with results of other methods recently reviewed in a work published in this journal.

A Climatological and Synoptic Analysis of Winter Cold Spells over the Balkan Peninsula

An extensive climatological and synoptic analysis of the winter cold spells that occurred in the Balkan Peninsula over a 59-year study period (1961–2019) is the aim of the present study. Winter cold spells (WCSPs hereafter) are defined as periods of at least three consecutive days when the daily minimum temperature is below the 5% of the empirical winter distributions. This diagnostic index is used to detect the occurrence of cold events during the study period, while the duration, frequency, and intensity of these extreme climate events are further analyzed. Moreover, in order to investigate the relation of the WCSPs with the atmospheric circulation, two daily circulation type calendars, derived from an advanced automatic flexible classification, were utilized. The automatic daily circulation type calendars were used, aiming at identifying the atmospheric conditions that prevail before or during WCSPs. The climatological analysis showed that the spatial distribution of the extreme minimum temperatures in the Balkan Peninsula presents a positive gradient from north to south, whereas coastal areas present more moderate minimum temperatures than inland areas of the region. In terms of WCSPs, the winter of 1962–1963 was the one with the longest WCSPs, for most of the stations under study. In general, a decreasing trend in the frequency of WCSP occurrence has been found towards the end of the study period. The circulation type investigation revealed that, during WCSPs in the Balkan region, the associated circulation at the 500 hPa is the Cne (cyclonic northeastern) and at the 1000 hPa is the Anw (anticyclonic northwest).

Features and Evolution of Autumn Weather Regimes in the Southeast China

Autumn is the transitional season when the atmospheric circulation pattern changes from summer to winter. The temperature and precipitation in Southeastern China in autumn are significantly influenced by the change in circulation patterns, and both show significant uniqueness. The clustering method can be used to observe the changes of circulation patterns in detail and to observe and analyze the transition from warm to cold seasons from a detailed view of the daily circulation pattern perspective. This method may have important research implications on how to study the generation and dissipation of extreme weather events. The Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) method is used to a 500 hPa geopotential height and 850 hPa wind and sea level pressure for 1981–2020 to identify the characteristic weather patterns (WTs) in autumn (September–November) over Southeastern China. Characteristics of the captured WTs are also analyzed in terms of the distribution characteristics of weather patterns, occurrence frequency, typical progression, precipitation and extreme precipitation (EP), temperature and extreme high temperature (EHT), and the relationship with atmospheric teleconnection. Nine WTs were identified in autumn, which represents a series of weather situations consisting of troughs and ridges. On this basis, these WTs were used to carry out the differentiation of seasonal differences between early and late autumn. The maximum mean and extreme precipitation occur in several early season patterns (WT1, WT2, WT4, and WT7). It is highly likely that extremely high temperatures occur in the WT1 and WT2 patterns. The most common progression between WTs is WT7−WT1−WT2−WT4 in the early season. This seasonality allows us to distinguish between early and late seasons based on daily weather types. A preliminary trend analysis suggests that patterns in the early season occur more frequently and last longer in the early season, and patterns in the late season occur less frequently and later. That is, the longer cool season pattern is shifting to the shorter warm season pattern. In addition, the persistence of both cool and warm patterns increased during 2001–2020 relative to 1981–2000, and the risk of both flooding and drought occurrence is on the rise.

Prediction of the Impact of Meteorological Conditions on Air Quality during the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics

The issue of air pollution has attracted more and more attention. Understanding how to predict air quality based on weather conditions has strong practical significance. For the first time, this paper combines weather circulation with climate prediction models to explore long-term air quality predictions. Using the T-mode (time realizations in columns) objective circulation classification method, we classified the weather circulation affecting Beijing, China, according to nine categories of predominant weather conditions. PM2.5, NO2, SO2, and CO concentration distributions for these nine circulation patterns were also determined. When the Beijing area was controlled by northwestern low pressure, a high-pressure rear, or a weak pressure field, the PM2.5 concentrations were higher, while high-pressure systems and a high-pressure rear were mostly associated with relatively high NO2, SO2, and CO concentrations. The concentrations of these pollutants under high-pressure fronts and northwestern high-pressure settings were low. Using the FLEXPART-WRF model to simulate the 48 h backward trajectory of the highest PM2.5 concentration under the nine circulation patterns from 2015 to 2021, we obtained the trap time of pollutants per unit concentration (imprint analysis) and determined the particle trap area under each circulation pattern. When using the EC-Earth climate prediction model, the daily circulation field during the Beijing Winter Olympics was forecasted, and the nine circulation patterns were compared. The corresponding circulation pattern in Beijing during the 2022 Winter Olympics should be conducive to the diffusion of pollutants and, therefore, the air quality is expected to be good.

Spring Extreme Precipitation Days in North China and Their Reliance on Atmospheric Circulation Patterns during 1979–2019

Abstract The interannual variation of springtime extreme precipitation (SEP) days in North China (NC) and their reliance on atmospheric circulation patterns are studied by using the continuous daily record of 396 rain gauges and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis during 1979–2019. The SEP days are defined as the days when at least 10% of rain gauges in NC record daily precipitation no less than 10.5 mm. Results show that the number of SEP days shows large interannual variability but no significant trend in the study period. Using the objective classification method of the obliquely rotated principal analysis in T-mode, we classify the atmospheric circulation into five different patterns based on the geopotential height at 700 hPa. Three circulation patterns all have fronts and are associated with strong southerly wind, leading to 88% of SEP days in NC. The strong southerly wind may provide moisture and dynamic forcing for the frontal precipitation. The interannual variation of SEP days is related with the number of the three above-mentioned dominant circulation patterns. Further analysis shows that the West Pacific pattern could be one of the possible climate variability modes related to SEP days. This study reveals that the daily circulation pattern may be the linkage between SEP days and climate variability modes in NC. Significance Statement Springtime extreme precipitation (SEP) has important social and economic impacts on North China (NC), but few studies have examined the variation of SEP in NC. We find that the number of SEP days has no significant trend but shows large interannual variability during 1979–2019. The interannual variation of SEP days is mainly determined by the total days of three frontal circulation patterns associated with strong southerly wind. Based on the daily circulation pattern, the West Pacific pattern is found to be one of the possible climate variability modes related to SEP days. These findings may shed light on the understanding of SEP in midlatitudes around the world.

The Role of Latent Heating Anomalies in Exciting the Summertime Eurasian Circulation Trend Pattern and High Surface Temperature

AbstractDynamical mechanisms for the summer Eurasian circulation trend pattern are investigated by analyzing reanalysis data and conducting numerical model simulations. The daily circulations that resemble the Eurasian circulation trend pattern are identified and categorized into two groups based on surface warming signal over central and eastern Europe. In the group with large warm anomaly, the upper-level circulation takes on a wave packet form over Eurasia, and there are enhanced latent heating anomalies centered over the North Sea and suppressed latent heating anomalies over the Caspian Sea. The numerical model calculations indicate that these latent heating anomalies can excite an upper-level circulation response that resembles the Eurasian circulation trend pattern. Additional analysis indicates that trends of these two latent heating centers contribute to the long-term circulation trend. In the weak warm anomaly group, the circulation pattern takes on a circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern, and there is no heating signal that reinforces the circulation. These results indicate that not all CGT-like patterns excite temperature anomalies that are persistent and in phase with the trend pattern, and that quasi-stationary forcings, such as the latent heating anomalies, play an important role in driving the boreal summer circulation anomaly that accompanies the strong and persistent surface temperature signal.

The expression of "United Front" in "Salvation Daily" under the textual analysis method

With the rapid development of the Internet and new media, online public opinion shows the direction of diversified demands. Domestically, it has become more difficult for the official media to lead public opinion, and internationally, the work in the field of ideology is still complicated. The "unification" of public ideology is crucial in solving various social problems, such as the Taiwan issue, and in strengthening and improving the methods and approaches of social management. The Salvation Daily was a newspaper that came into being during the period of total resistance in the last century, and it was also a newspaper for the united front in the cultural sector. During its brief period of operation, the Daily Salvation Daily reached a daily circulation of 8,000 copies in its heyday, and its influence spread to Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Jiangxi, Sichuan, and even Hong Kong and Nanyang. The Salvation Daily became one of the most influential progressive newspapers in the entire southwest region and played a significant role in promoting the "United Front" of the whole nation. This paper uses textual analysis to analyze the news texts and newspaper characteristics of the Salvation Daily during the war period, to explore the success of its "united front" propaganda and "national unity" consciousness, as well as its contribution to today's "united front" ideological work. The paper also discusses the success of its "United Front" propaganda and "national unity" awareness-raising work, as well as the inspiration it brings to the present-day "United Front" ideological work.

A linear regression model for predicting the number of daily circulations in a public library: An analysis for Kashiwa City Library

A linear regression model for predicting the number of daily circulations in a public library: An analysis for Kashiwa City Library

Health Communication in Media: An Analytical Study of Coverage of World Blood Donor Day in Leading National Dailies from Jaipur

As we know Print media is known for its credibility. It is believed that whatever is published in newspapers is true and authentic. Newspapers have a wide reach and huge readership and it can be said that campaigning with mass media like newspapers are associated with many benefits. Firstly it can reach a large number of people. Secondly, it is considered to be a credible source of information. Thirdly through the newspapers the readers can be reminded about the issues at hand their beliefs reinforced on regular basis. Newspapers have a large readership throughout the world. They can contribute maximally to health education awareness of people by publishing articles on health related issues. Global daily circulation of newspaper was 5.19 million having a readership of 2.3 billion in 2010. This was 20% more than the internet users worldwide. In the age of internet still newspapers are relevant and represent 8% of total media consumption time (https://www.journalism.org/fact-sheet/newspapers/). In India Registered newspapers are 82,237 and Hindi language newspapers are leading the race followed by English and other regional languages. Thus, we can say that Newspapers are very important tool to disseminate health education among people and it can bring change in society. (http://rni.nic.in/)

Synoptic circulation changes over Central Europe from 1900 to 2100: Reanalyses and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6

AbstractWhile the evidence for anthropogenic climate change continues to strengthen, and concerns about severe weather events are increasing, global projections of regional climate change are still uncertain due to model‐dependent changes in large‐scale atmospheric circulation, including over North Atlantic and Europe. Here, the Jenkinson–Collison classification of daily circulation patterns is used to evaluate past and future changes in their seasonal frequencies over Central Europe for the 1900–2100 period. Three reanalyses and eight global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6, were used based on daily mean sea‐level pressure data. Best agreement in deriving relative frequencies of the synoptic types was found between the reanalyses. Global models can generally capture the interannual variability of circulation patterns and their climatological state, especially for the less frequent synoptic types. Based on historical data and the shared socioeconomic pathway 5 scenario, the evaluated trends show more robust signals during summer, given their lesser internal variability. Increasing frequencies were found for circulation types characterized by weak pressure gradients, mainly at the expense of decreasing frequencies of westerlies. Our findings indicate that given a high‐emission scenario, these signals will likely emerge from past climate variability towards the mid‐21st century for most altered circulation patterns.

Variations in the Peczely Macro-Synoptic Types (1881–2020) with Attention to Weather Extremes in the Pannonian Basin

Daily Peczely circulation types are investigated over 140 years (1881–2020). After presenting monthly mean frequencies and durations of the 13 circulation types, two further questions are investigated: (i) How do the circulation types influence local weather extremes?; (ii) Are there significant trends in the frequency of the original and the grouped circulation types in the recent monotonically warming 50 year period (1971–2020)? The answers are as follows: (i) Four local weather extremes were investigated in nine grid-points of the Pannonian Basin and analyzed in the central months of the seasons. It was established that high precipitation and wind maxima occur in almost all circulation types and months, whereas for both high temperature maxima and low temperature minima, there are six circulation types, where no extremity occurred in one, two, or three investigated months. (ii) In the last 50 years, 37% of the linear seasonal frequency trends have been significant. However, these trends are rarely significant in the shorter monotonously warming (1911–1940) and cooling (1941–1970) 30-year periods. Therefore, the significant trends of the last 50 years are unlikely to be the direct consequences of the monotonous hemispherical warming. Since these hemispherical temperature trends are most likely caused by different sets of physical reasons, the reality of the presented circulation frequency trends needs to be validated by climate models.

Detectable anthropogenic changes in daily-scale circulations driving summer rainfall shifts over eastern China

Wetting in the south while drying in the north during the last few decades constitutes the well-known ‘southern flood–northern drought’ (SFND) precipitation pattern over eastern China. The fingerprint of anthropogenic influence on this dipole pattern of regional precipitation trends has not been confirmed, especially for forced changes in relevant dynamics at the synoptic scale. Using a process-based approach involving model experiments both with and without anthropogenic inputs, it is demonstrated that the occurrences of daily circulation patterns (CPs) governing precipitation over eastern China during 1961–2013 have been altered by human influence. Due to anthropogenic forcing, CPs favoring SFND have become more likely to occur at the expense of CPs unfavorable to SFND. Regression analysis shows that changes recorded in the occurrence of CPs from the factual simulations could explain a large part of the precipitation trends over eastern China. CP frequencies driven by purely natural forcing do not reproduce this dipole pattern nor the inferred magnitude of precipitation trends over eastern China. These results suggest that human influence has played a critical role in shaping the contrasting north–south precipitation trends.

Implikasi Bayang Istiwa’ Terhadap Penentuan Awal Waktu Sholat

The formulation of prayer times is based on the apparent daily circulation of the Sun by determining when the Sun occupies a certain position. One of these positions when the Sun is perpendicular to the position of the observer is called the Solar Culmination Time or called “istiwa’ ”. Time ‘istiwa defined as the starting point of the reckoning the beginning of prayer time with a time angle value equal to zero. One of the phenomena in istiwa’ is the shadow of istiwa’ which is used as a guide in making sundials. The phenomena of the ‘shadows’ has many variants depending on the latitude of the place and the declination of the Sun. The number of variants of changes in the condition of the idols ‘shadow becomes an interesting part to be studied and researched, especially the position of the idols’ time as the starpoint in the initial reckoning of prayer time. In addition, the implication of the shadow istiwa ‘phenomenon is closely related to the beginning of Zuhr and Asr, which use the sun’s shadow in their calculations. This paper will examine the implications of istiwa ‘shadows on the initial determination of prayer times which will be more focused on changes in the phenomenon of istiwa’i shadows to variations in latitude and sun declination. The research method uses qualitative methods with an astronomical approach. The data obtained were processed using geometric techniques to obtain data variants. The results of data processing were analyzed with descriptive comparisons to get a more comprehensive picture. The results of the study show that with changes in the variation in the value of the latitude and declination of the Sun, a change in the phenomenon of the length of the images’ image is obtained as follows: Without a shadow; b. The image ‘does not exceed the length of the object; c. The image ‘is equal to the object’s length; d. Istiwa length ‘is longer than the object length; e. Dark. The implication is in the formulation of Zuhr and Asr prayer times which refer to the length of the idols ‘shadows’ experiencing problems. Especially areas with latitude> 45 ° when declination is negative and latitude> -45 ° when declination is positive.

Prediction of Indian summer monsoon onset with high resolution model: a case study

India is an agro-based country, receives nearly 80% of the annual rainfall during the summer monsoon season, and has a vital socioeconomic security link. The start of the Indian rainy season is observed over the country's southern tip (Kerala) and is referred to as the monsoon onset. The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) onset is one of the key aspects and unique for each year. This paper aims the prediction of ISM onset for different years by using the operational numerical weather forecasts at medium-range time scales by using different atmospheric variables from UKMO, and NCMRWF deterministic (NCUM) and ensemble model (NEPS) weather forecasts. For predicting the 2018 onset, we have adopted objective methods like the rainfall criteria, daily circulation index, potential temperature, moisture transport etc. The results for an early onset year (2018) show that the models could predict the onset date agreeing with the observed India Meteorological Department (IMD) onset date of 29 May 2018 from both UKMO 5-day and NCUM 10-day forecasts. This study also emphasizes on the utilization of the medium-range numerical weather forecasts, providing enough time to plan the farming activities. We also present the models’ performance/ skill for assessing the onset dates for the delayed onset (2019) and timely onset (2020) monsoons with NCUM 10-days lead time, and the results agree with IMD dates. From the UKMO, NCUM, NEPS models’ rainfall forecast show that the onset date on 29 May 2018 as IMD. Similarly, the analysis from circulation index, potential temperature, vertically integrated moisture transport analysis, outgoing long wave radiation, tropospheric temperature index clearly shows the onset date agreeing with IMD observations. Similarly, for the late onset (2019) and timely onset (2020) years, the daily circulation index agrees with IMD observed onset dates. Finally, these results from the deterministic and probabilistic forecasts are consistent with the observed onset dates, and these medium range forecasts are highly helpful to compute the monsoon onset date with higher lead times (10 days) within the error of one day.