Prediction of the Impact of Meteorological Conditions on Air Quality during the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics

Abstract

The issue of air pollution has attracted more and more attention. Understanding how to predict air quality based on weather conditions has strong practical significance. For the first time, this paper combines weather circulation with climate prediction models to explore long-term air quality predictions. Using the T-mode (time realizations in columns) objective circulation classification method, we classified the weather circulation affecting Beijing, China, according to nine categories of predominant weather conditions. PM2.5, NO2, SO2, and CO concentration distributions for these nine circulation patterns were also determined. When the Beijing area was controlled by northwestern low pressure, a high-pressure rear, or a weak pressure field, the PM2.5 concentrations were higher, while high-pressure systems and a high-pressure rear were mostly associated with relatively high NO2, SO2, and CO concentrations. The concentrations of these pollutants under high-pressure fronts and northwestern high-pressure settings were low. Using the FLEXPART-WRF model to simulate the 48 h backward trajectory of the highest PM2.5 concentration under the nine circulation patterns from 2015 to 2021, we obtained the trap time of pollutants per unit concentration (imprint analysis) and determined the particle trap area under each circulation pattern. When using the EC-Earth climate prediction model, the daily circulation field during the Beijing Winter Olympics was forecasted, and the nine circulation patterns were compared. The corresponding circulation pattern in Beijing during the 2022 Winter Olympics should be conducive to the diffusion of pollutants and, therefore, the air quality is expected to be good.