Daily Circulation Research Articles

Effect of weather and days of the week on number of daily circulation in public libraries

Effect of weather and days of the week on number of daily circulation in public libraries

Fast responses of Northern Hemisphere winter daily circulation to anthropogenic aerosols

Anthropogenic aerosols (AA) have significantly caused anomalous winter mean atmospheric circulation over the Northern Hemisphere, but the main daily patterns of winter large-scale circulation change are not well understood. Here a self-organizing map analysis is applied to identify the leading patterns in AA-induced winter daily geopotential height (Z) anomaly fields simulated by three atmospheric general circulation models, with a focus on fast adjustments. Two winter daily circulation response patterns with a synoptic time scale are found: one pattern shows concurring Z anomalies over North America and North Asia with the same sign and the Bering Sea seeing the opposite, resembling the Asia–Bering–North American teleconnection; while the other is the Arctic Oscillation-like pattern with similar Z anomalies over North Pacific and North Atlantic and the opposite over the Arctic region. The AA-induced anomalous precipitation over the tropics and anomalous synoptic eddy activities over the extratropical oceans concur to support and maintain these circulation anomaly patterns. The winter-mean climate responses to AA can be understood as a result of these daily anomaly patterns, especially over the higher latitudes. Specifically, the associated changes in surface air temperature (SAT) over the mid-high latitudes are caused by the AA-driven meridional movements of polar (cold and dry) airmass and midlatitude (warm and moist) airmass in the regions, mainly through the relevant surface downward longwave radiation. This study highlights the role of AA in altering daily weather patterns, which is not sufficiently captured by seasonal mean responses.

Prediction of traffic flows by applying the statistical method

Traffic flows in the streets network undergo changes not only during the day, but also on the weekdays. Existing models take these changes into account as unpredictable fluctuations. Flows may vary systematically due to differences in the schedules of industrial enterprises, warehouses, and terminals. By analyzing the statistics, weekdays or seasons are determined when the flows predictably differ. To process the data, it is necessary to develop models or amend the initial data of the model (in the case of everyday dynamic models) to verify the reliability of the proposed methods. In order to investigate daily variability, as well as take into account the dynamics during the day, the distribution of flows is analyzed using functional linear models. The result of the study is the ability to predict traffic flow by day of the week or season. Testing is carried out on real data. The daily circulation was found to vary significantly for each day of the week, including differences in time and peak flux duration, as well as the relationship between peak and peak peaks. This technique aims to increase the efficiency and reliability of the transport sector as a whole.

Toward Identifying Subseasonal Forecasts of Opportunity Using North American Weather Regimes

AbstractLarge-scale atmospheric circulation regime structures are used to diagnose subseasonal forecasts of wintertime geopotential height fields over the North American sector, from the NCEP CFSv2 model. Four large-scale daily circulation regimes derived from reanalysis 500-hPa geopotential height data using K-means clustering are used as a low-dimensional basis for diagnosing the model’s forecasts up to 45 days ahead. On average, hindcast skill in regime space is found to be limited to 10–15 days ahead, in terms of anomaly correlation of 5-day averages of regime counts, over the 1999–2010 period. However, skill up to 30 days ahead is identified in individual winters, and intraseasonal episodes of high skill are identified using a forecast-evolution graphical tool. A striking vacillation between the West Coast and Pacific ridge patterns during December–January 2008/09 is shown to be predicted 20–25 days in advance, illustrating the possibility to identify “forecasts of opportunity” when subseasonal forecast skill is much higher than the average. The forecast-evolution tool also provides insight into the poor seasonal forecasts of California precipitation by operational centers during the 2015/16 El Niño winter. The Pacific trough regime is shown to be greatly overpredicted beyond 1–2 weeks in advance during the 2015/16 winter, with weather-scale features dominating the forecast evolution at shorter lead times. A similar though less extreme situation took place during the weaker El Niño of 2009/10, with the Pacific trough overforecast at S2S lead times.

ОСНОВНІ МЕХАНІЗМИ РЕАЛІЗАЦІЇ ГРОШОВО-КРЕДИТНОЇ ПОЛІТИКИ ТА ЇХ ОСОБЛИВОСТІ

This scientific article is devoted to the analysis of theoretical principles, legislation, scientific positions on improving the priorities and mechanisms of monetary policy in the national financial security system. The purpose of the study is to strengthen the process of national financial security. The subject of the study is to identify key points in the national financial security system and the implementation of theoretical and methodological principles, as well as scientific and practical recommendations for the implementation of mechanisms to improve monetary policy. The conceptual provisions of monetary policy and its provisions in the national system of economic and financial security are formulated. The authors substantiate that today the financial systems of individual countries, as well as other sectors of the economy, are improving and progressing in the context of globalization, the spread of IT technologies and general computerization; Electronic cryptocurrency replaces traditional money issued by the state. It is substantiated that over the last year the cryptocurrency has won the interest not only of people, but of entire states, which have begun to actively introduce this currency into their daily circulation. This means of payment is already gaining momentum in use in developed countries. The focus is on the analysis of the concept of "blockchain". The article states that today Ukraine is among the ten countries in the world in the number of bitcoin nodes in the global bitcoin network, the leader in the number of bitcoin businessmen. The study summarizes the methods, tools and means of state regulation in the monetary sphere in order to strengthen the financial security of the state. The conceptual basis for the formation and implementation of monetary policy has been developed. The authors conclude that the strategic vector of movement for Ukraine is the need to adopt a specialized legislative act "On cryptocurrency circulation in Ukraine" in order to create conditions for the introduction of network segmentation technologies, which in the long run will reduce globalization and further develop cryptocurrency market infrastructure.

Batch UV Disinfection for Small Flow Onsite Wastewater Treatment

HighlightsThe onsite batch UV disinfection system has potential to replace traditional flow-through system.Advantages of UV batch UV system include lamp life savings and controlled dosage by controlling re-circulation time.Higher re-circulation flow rate within batch UV system does not improve disinfection performance.Batch UV system saves energy compared to flow-through system when daily circulation time can be designed for less than 2.5 hours.Abstract. Many small flow and residential wastewater generators are not connected to centralized treatment facilities. Decentralized wastewater treatment systems require effluent disinfection to minimize the public health hazard associated with onsite reuse of the water. The objective of this study was to investigate the performance of an onsite batch UV disinfection system for reuse of wastewater. The field tests were performed with residential wastewater that was treated by septic tank and peat filtration before UV disinfection. E. coli counts were reduced by 1.4 log after 2.5 h contact time. Circulation flow rates did not affect the disinfection efficacy. UV batch disinfection, with hours of operation, has potential to significantly inactivate pathogens but needs site-specific optimization for daily onsite wastewater treatment. Keywords: Clostridium perfringens, Coliphages, Escherichia coli, Onsite wastewater, UV disinfection, Wastewater reuse.

Carceral Spaces and Social Reproduction: Exploring Export Processing Zones in Sri Lanka and Prisons in Argentina

AbstractThe article reflects on the ways in which social reproduction intersects with (im)mobility in export-processing zones in Sri Lanka and the outskirts of prisons in Argentina. Framing factories and prisons as “carceral spaces” and drawing upon diverse case study materials, it focuses on (i) the daily circulations and waiting that take place around these closely regulated sites and (ii) the relations of care that emerge in these sites. The article analyzes how gendered care work can be an active form of agency and resistance to structural confinement and violence, which is nevertheless embedded in broader forms of depletion.

Analysis for Resistance Reduction of an Amazon School Boat Through Hull Shape Modification Utilizing a CFD Tool

AbstractThe waterway system of the Brazilian Amazonian region is one of the most complex in the world, being of vital importance for the daily circulation of passengers and cargo, and in this scenario, the FNDE (National Fund for Development of Education) provided the implementation of school boats for the transportation of riverine students to their classrooms. However, one of the school boat models presented operational inefficiency, as well as increased fuel consumption and travel duration. This work investigates the hydrodynamic causes of this inefficiency by analyzing dynamic pressure distributions on the hull, streamlines, and wave train generation and identifying hull shape regions that would hinder the flow. Through Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations and analysis, a hull shape modification is proposed in order to reduce the resistance to forward motion and a comparison is made with the results of another research report, using the same hull geometry and speed range in simulations performed in other CFD software. Due to the hydrodynamic analysis, it can be inferred that the prototype hull form is inappropriate for the proposed operation regime in this project, and an agreement on the resistance coefficient reduction rates can be observed between use of both software, where a maximum total resistance coefficient reduction of 25.06% is achieved.

Diurnal Variations in Surface Wind over the Tibetan Plateau

This study uses hourly surface wind direction and wind speed observations from 53 meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) (70–105° E, 25–45° N) between 1995 and 2017 to investigate diurnal variations in the surface wind. The results show large diurnal variations in surface wind on the TP. The minimum wind speed occurs in the morning and the maximum in the afternoon. In all four seasons, the prevailing meridional wind is a southerly, and this is typically evident for more than two-thirds of each day. However, in the mornings during December–February and September–November, this southerly wind is replaced by a northerly, but remains southerly in the afternoon. The TP shows remarkable regional characteristics with respect to diurnal variations in wind speed. In the eastern region, the minimum and maximum daily wind speeds occur about 1 h later than in the west. Among the 53 meteorological stations, 79% observed that it took less time for the minimum speed to rise to the maximum speed than for the maximum to drop to the minimum. The blocking effect of the high surrounding terrain causes the diurnal variations seen in the surface winds at the three stations in the Qaidam Basin to differ significantly from those observed at the other stations elsewhere on the plateau. These Qaidam Basin stations recorded their maximum wind speeds around noon, with the minimum at dusk, which is around 1900 LST. The EOF1 (EOF = empirical orthogonal function) of the hourly wind speed on the TP indicates the key daily circulation feature of the region; i.e., the wind speed is high in the afternoon and low in the morning. The EOF2 reflects the regional differences in the diurnal variations of wind speed on the TP; i.e., the eastern region reaches the daily maximum and minimum wind speeds slightly later than the western region.

Relationship between mean and extreme precipitation and circulation types over Hungary

In this paper we analyse the relationship between the mean and extreme precipitation for five stations in Hungary and the circulation types at the 500 hPa level, for a 52‐year period, 1958–2010. We used daily rainfall data for each station and a calendar of the daily circulation types at the 500 hPa geopotential height for Hungary based on an automatic classification scheme. A trend analysis showed that, in general, the mean and extreme precipitation rarely exhibit significant trends, similarly to previous studies. The only exception was found for the number of annual and summer rainy days in Budapest with significant negative trends (p = .05), as well as the number of days with rainfall amounts greater than the 95% probability level for Debrecen with a significant positive trend. It was found that the circulation types that are mainly responsible for the largest precipitation amounts overall show (in some cases significant) negative trends, as well as the precipitation amounts that are associated with them (Cwsw, Cse, Cwnw). In most cases, the circulation types that are prevailing during the extreme precipitation events are associated with western or almost‐western atmospheric circulations (Cwsw, Ase) and Mediterranean‐ or Atlantic‐origin depressions.

Second-degree price discrimination by Japanese newspapers

In Japan, the newspaper publishers with the greatest daily circulation offer both morning and evening editions in most of their distribution areas, and many of them allow their customers to choose between morning-only and morning-and-evening subscriptions. Each such newspaper publisher, in setting the subscription prices and numbers of pages of content in its morning edition and evening edition, must take into account self-selection of demanders as to type of subscription. The subscription offerings thus amount to second-degree price discrimination, which is the main reason why it might be profitable to even publish an evening edition along with the morning one. Estimates here show that the Japanese newspaper publishers that do offer optional evening editions enlarge their profits by around eight percent of their morning-edition subscription revenue. Furthermore, these newspaper publishers increase consumer surplus by an amount equal to half what they add their own profit. The second-degree price discrimination increases social welfare.

Baseline predictability of daily east Asian summer monsoon circulation indices

The nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) method is adopted to quantitatively determine the predictability limit of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensity indices on a synoptic timescale. The predictability limit of EASM indices varies widely according to the definitions of indices. EASM indices defined by zonal shear have a limit of around 7 days, which is higher than the predictability limit of EASM indices defined by sea level pressure (SLP) difference and meridional wind shear (about 5 days). The initial error of EASM indices defined by SLP difference and meridional wind shear shows a faster growth than indices defined by zonal wind shear. Furthermore, the indices defined by zonal wind shear appear to fluctuate at lower frequencies, whereas the indices defined by SLP difference and meridional wind shear generally fluctuate at higher frequencies. This result may explain why the daily variability of the EASM indices defined by zonal wind shear tends be more predictable than those defined by SLP difference and meridional wind shear. Analysis of the temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skill for EASM indices obtained from observations and from NCEP’s Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) historical weather forecast dataset shows that GEFS has a higher forecast skill for the EASM indices defined by zonal wind shear than for indices defined by SLP difference and meridional wind shear. The predictability limit estimated by the NLLE method is shorter than that in GEFS. In addition, the June-September average TCC skill for different daily EASM indices shows significant interannual variations from 1985 to 2015 in GEFS. However, the TCC for different types of EASM indices does not show coherent interannual fluctuations.

Causes of extreme rainfall in May 2013 over Henan Province: the role of the southwest vortex and low-level jet

The present work investigated the large-scale background and possible causes of the rainstorm in Henan Province on 25–26 May 2013 using observational and numerical studies. The results indicated that this rainstorm was accompanied by widespread rainfall in China, especially Central China. The storm was caused by the eastward movement of the southwest vortex (SWV) and a strong low-level southwesterly jet, which brought adequate moisture from the Bay of Bengal and triggered a strong ascending motion. The main features of the daily rain belt and large-scale atmospheric circulation were well captured by the numerical simulation. Both observational and numerical results confirmed the essential role of the low-level southwesterly jet and its warm advection in the development and propagation of the SWV. Low-level warm advection guiding SWV propagation may provide a reference for forecasting rainfall induced by the SWV.

Investigating event‐specific drought attribution using self‐organizing maps

AbstractPrevious studies evaluating anthropogenic influences on the meteorological drivers of drought have found mixed results owing to (1) the complex physical mechanisms which lead to the onset of drought, (2) differences in the characteristics and time scales of drought for different regions of the world, and (3) different approaches to the question of attribution. For a midlatitude, temperate climate like New Zealand, strongly modulated by oceanic influences, summer droughts last on the order of 3 months, and are less strongly linked to persistent temperature anomalies than continental climates. Here we demonstrate the utility of a novel approach for characterizing the meteorological conditions conducive to extreme drought over the North Island of New Zealand, using the January–March 2013 event as a case study. Specifically, we consider the use of self‐organizing map techniques in a multimember coupled climate model ensemble to capture changes in daily circulation, between two 41 year periods (1861–1901 and 1993–2033). Comparisons are made with seasonal pressure and precipitation indices. Our results demonstrate robust (>99% confidence) increases in the likelihood of observing circulation patterns like those of the 2013 drought in the recent‐climate simulations when compared with the early‐climate simulations. Best guess estimates of the fraction of attributable risk range from 0.2 to 0.4, depending on the metric used and threshold considered. Contributions to uncertainty in these attribution statements are discussed.

Trends in frequency and persistence of atmospheric circulation types over Europe derived from a multitude of classifications

ABSTRACTThe aim of this study is to quantify changes of atmospheric circulation over Europe using a large number of classifications of circulation types that were collected and developed within the COST733 Action ‘Harmonisation and Applications of Weather Types Classifications for European Regions’. Circulation changes over Europe are studied in terms of changing seasonal frequency and persistence of daily circulation types in the period September 1957–August 2002. The extensive collection of both subjective and objective (computer‐assisted) catalogues of circulation types in 12 European domains serves as a platform for comparison of different classification methods, varying numbers of circulation types, sequencing of input sea‐level pressure data, and spatial scale of circulation processes. The overall picture of frequency and persistence trends is consistent with two large‐scale tendencies: strengthening and eastward shift of the North Atlantic Oscillation, and a northwestward shift of storm tracks. There is, however, a limited consistency in the trends between individual classifications. This inconsistency leads us to the recommendation that results of climatological analyses based on a single classification should not be generalized and overinterpreted; it is highly advisable to simultaneously use multiple, and as many as possible, classifications in climatological studies.

Changes in the Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation over Romania Between 1961 and 2010 on Seasonal Basis

The aim of this paper is to investigate the trends and shifts of the circulation types over Romania for 50-year period (1961–2010) on seasonal basis. In order to achieve this, two objective catalogues, namely GWT and WLK, from COST733 Action were employed. Daily circulation types were grouped according to the cyclonicity and anticyclonicity and were used to calculate the seasonal occurrence frequency of cyclonic and anticyclonic types. The trend of seasonal time series was investigated by using Mann–Kendall test and the shifts points were determined by using Pettitt test. The results reveal that the occurrence frequency of anti-cyclonic types increases in summer and winter seasons and the occurrence frequency of cyclonic ones decreases for the summer season (for alpha = 0.05).

Effects of farmer social status and plant biocultural value on seed circulation networks in Vanuatu

Thomas, M., and S. Caillon. 2016. Effects of farmer social status and plant biocultural value on seed circulation networks in Vanuatu. Ecology and Society 21(2):13.http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-08378-210213

Određivanje optimalne varijante transportnih vozila javne autobusne linije u dnevnom protoku

This paper presents the possible solutions of daily circulations in terms of the transport ensuring the daily performance of vehicles and staffing. It is focused on the determination of these vehicles as the daily circulation optimal variant as well. It appears that the analysis of the transport solution is the first step to determine the successful optimal solution of the transport performance volume. Subsequently, the transport solution must be tested from an economic point of view.

Cross–Time Scale Interactions and Rainfall Extreme Events in Southeastern South America for the Austral Summer. Part I: Potential Predictors

Abstract The physical mechanisms and predictability associated with extreme daily rainfall in southeastern South America (SESA) are investigated for the December–February season in a two-part study. Through a k-mean analysis, this first paper identifies a robust set of daily circulation regimes that are used to link the frequency of rainfall extreme events with large-scale potential predictors at subseasonal-to-seasonal scales. This represents a basic set of daily circulation regimes related to the continental and oceanic phases of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and wave train patterns superimposed on the Southern Hemisphere polar jet. Some of these recurrent synoptic circulation types are conducive to extreme rainfall events in the region through synoptic control of different mesoscale physical features and, at the same time, are influenced by climate phenomena that could be used as sources of potential predictability. Extremely high rainfall (as measured by the 95th and 99th percentiles) is associated with two of these weather types (WTs), which are characterized by moisture advection intrusions from lower latitudes and the Pacific Ocean; another three WTs, characterized by above-normal moisture advection toward lower latitudes or the Andes, are associated with dry days (days with no rain). The analysis permits the identification of several subseasonal-to-seasonal scale potential predictors that modulate the occurrence of circulation regimes conducive to extreme rainfall events in SESA. It is conjectured that a cross–time scale interaction between the different climate drivers improves the predictive skill of extreme precipitation in the region.

Interannual variability of seasonal rainfall over the Cape south coast of South Africa and synoptic type association

The link between interannual variability of seasonal rainfall over the Cape south coast of South Africa and different synoptic types as well as selected teleconnections is explored. Synoptic circulation over the region is classified into different synoptic types by employing a clustering technique, the self-organizing map (SOM), on daily circulation data for the 33-year period from 1979 to 2011. Daily rainfall data are used to investigate interannual variability of seasonal rainfall within the context of the identified synoptic types. The anomalous frequency of occurrence of the different synoptic types for wet and for dry seasons differs significantly within the SOM space, except for austral spring. The main rainfall-producing synoptic types are to a large extent consistent for wet and dry seasons. The main rainfall-producing synoptic types have a notable larger contribution to seasonal rainfall totals during wet seasons than during dry seasons, consistent with a higher frequency of occurrence of the main rainfall-producing synoptic types during wet seasons compared to dry seasons. Dry seasons are characterized by a smaller contribution to seasonal rainfall totals by all the different synoptic types, but with the largest negative anomalies associated with low frequencies of the main rainfall-producing synoptic types. The frequencies of occurrence of specific configurations of ridging high pressure systems, cut-off lows and tropical-temperate troughs associated with rainfall are positively linked to interannual variability of seasonal rainfall. It is also shown that the distribution of synoptic types within the SOM space is linked to the Southern Annular Mode and El Nino Southern Oscillation, implying some predictability of intraseasonal variability at the seasonal time scale.