PurposeTo construct a machine learning (ML)-based model for estimating the alignment curve (AC) curvature in orthokeratology lens fitting for vision shaping treatment (VST), which can minimize the number of lens trials, improving efficiency while maintaining accuracy, with regards to its improvement over a previous calculation method. MethodsData were retrospectively collected from the clinical case files of 1271 myopic subjects (1271 right eyes). The AC curvatures calculated with a previously published algorithm were used as the target data sets. Four kinds of machine learning algorithms were implemented in the experimental analyses to predict the targeted AC curvatures: robust linear regression models, support vector machine (SVM) regression models with linear kernel functions, bagging decision trees, and Gaussian processes. The previously published calculation method and the novel machine learning method were then compared to assess the final parameters of ordered lenses. ResultsThe linear SVM and Gaussian process machine learning models achieved the best performance. The input variables included sex, age, horizontal visible iris diameter (HVID), spherical refraction (SER), cylindrical refraction, eccentricity value (e value), flat K (K1) and steep K (K2) readings, anterior chamber depth (ACD), and axial length (AL). The R-squared values for the output AC1K1, AC1K2 and AC2K1 values were 0.91, 0.84, and 0.73, respectively. The previous calculation method and machine learning methods displayed excellent consistency, and the proposed methods performed best based on flat K reading and e values. ConclusionsThe ML model can provide practitioners with an efficient method for estimating the AC curvatures of VST lenses and reducing the probability of cross-infection originating from trial lenses, which is especially useful during pandemics, such as that for COVID-19.