Cumulative Incidence Of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Research Articles

Post-treatment serum Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive mac-2-binding protein level is a useful predictor of hepatocellular carcinoma development after hepatitis C virus eradication.

AimsRecent advances of direct‐acting antiviral drugs for hepatitis C virus (HCV) have dramatically improved the sustained virologic response (SVR) rate, but hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development rarely occurs even in patients who achieve an SVR. Wisteria floribunda agglutinin‐positive mac‐2‐binding protein (WFA+‐M2BP) was recently developed as a noninvasive biomarker of liver fibrosis. However, the association between the WFA+‐M2BP level and HCC development after the achievement of an SVR is unclear.Methods and ResultsWe examined the association between WFA+‐M2BP and HCC development in 522 HCV patients who achieved an SVR (Interferon [IFN]‐based therapy, n = 228; IFN‐free therapy, n = 294). Multivariate analysis revealed that a high WFA+‐M2BP level at SVR week 24 after treatment (SVR24) (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.215, P = 0.020), low platelet counts (HR = 0.876, P = 0.037), and old age (HR = 1.073, P = 0.012) were independent risk factors for HCC development regardless of the treatment regimen. Receiver operator characteristics curve analysis revealed that a WFA+‐M2BP level at SVR24 of ≥1.62 cut‐off index (COI) was the cut‐off value for the prediction of HCC development (adjusted HR = 12.565, 95% CI 3.501–45.092, P < 0.001). The 3‐ and 5‐year cumulative incidences of HCC were 1% and 1.6% in patients with low WFA+‐M2BP at SVR24 (<1.62 COI), and 4.7% and 12.5% in patients with high WFA+‐M2BP (≥1.62 COI) were, respectively (P < 0.001).ConclusionsThe assessment of liver fibrosis using the WFA+‐M2BP level at SVR24 is a useful predictor of HCC development after HCV eradication even in the IFN‐free therapy era.

Validation and update of a multivariable prediction model for the identification and management of patients at risk for hepatocellular carcinoma

BackgroundA hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction model (ASAP), including age, sex, and the biomarkers alpha-fetoprotein and prothrombin induced by vitamin K absence-II, showed potential clinical value in the early detection of HCC. We validated and updated the model in a real-world cohort and promoted its transferability to daily clinical practice.MethodsThis retrospective cohort analysis included 1012 of the 2479 eligible patients aged 35 years or older undergoing surveillance for HCC. The data were extracted from the electronic medical records. Biomarker values within the test-to-diagnosis interval were used to validate the ASAP model. Due to its unsatisfactory calibration, three logistic regression models were constructed to recalibrate and update the model. Their discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility were compared. The performance statistics of the final updated model at several risk thresholds are presented. The outcomes of 855 non-HCC patients were further assessed during a median of 10.2 months of follow-up. Statistical analyses were performed using packages in R software.ResultsThe ASAP model had superior discriminative performance in the validation cohort [C-statistic = 0.982, (95% confidence interval 0.972–0.992)] but significantly overestimated the risk of HCC (intercept − 3.243 and slope 1.192 in the calibration plot), reducing its clinical usefulness. Recalibration-in-the-large, which exhibited performance comparable to that of the refitted model revision, led to the retention of the excellent discrimination and substantial improvements in the calibration and clinical utility, achieving a sensitivity of 100% at the median prediction probability of the absence of HCC (1.3%). The probability threshold of 1.3% and the incidence of HCC in the cohort (15.5%) were used to stratify the patients into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups. The cumulative HCC incidences in the non-HCC patients significantly differed among the risk groups (log-rank test, p-value < 0.001). The 3-month, 6-month and 18-month cumulative incidences in the low-risk group were 0.6%, 0.9% and 0.9%, respectively.ConclusionsThe ASAP model is an accurate tool for HCC risk estimation that requires recalibration before use in a new region because calibration varies with clinical environments. Additionally, rational risk stratification and risk-based management decision-making, e.g., 3-month follow-up recommendations for targeted individuals, helped improve HCC surveillance, which warrants assessment in larger cohorts.

Serum GP88 as a predictive biomarker for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with viral hepatitis C after direct-acting antiviral agents.

Progranulin (GP88) is an 88-kDa glycoprotein growth factor with important biological effects in tumorigenesis and tumour survival. We investigated the usefulness of measuring serum GP88 concentrations as a predictive biomarker for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with viral hepatitis C after treatment with direct-acting antiviral agents. We measured the serum GP88 concentrations by using a sandwich enzyme-linked immunoassay from 67 healthy control subjects and 29 patients (20 patients who did not develop hepatocellular carcinoma and 9 patients who developed hepatocellular carcinoma after treatment) with viral hepatitis C after treatment with asunaprevir and daclatasvir. The serum GP88 concentrations of patients with chronic hepatitis C prior to antiviral treatment were significantly higher than those of healthy control subjects. After antiviral treatment, the serum GP88 concentrations of patients who eventually developed hepatocellular carcinoma were significantly higher than those who did not develop hepatocellular carcinoma. The changes in the serum GP88 concentrations before and after treatment in patients who developed hepatocellular carcinoma were significantly lower than those in patients who did not develop hepatocellular carcinoma. The cumulative incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma was significantly higher in either patients with high serum GP88 concentrations after treatment or those with small changes of serum GP88 concentrations pre- and post-treatment. Sustained high concentrations of serum GP88 in patients treated with direct-acting antiviral agents are correlated with the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma.

External validation of hepatocellular carcinoma risk scores in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection in China.

Several scores have been proposed in untreated or treated patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) to predict risks of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence. However, it is still unclear which score suits all chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV)-infected patients well, regardless of whether they are chronic carriers or CHB patients. In this study, we validated and compared the predictability of CU-HCC, REACH-B, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B in patients with chronic HBV infection in China. 1,786 patients with no history of HCC were recruited, with 978 carriers and 808 CHB patients on antiviral therapy. Patients were classified into low- and high-risk groups according to the predefined cut-off values of 5, 8, 10 and 9 for CU-HCC, REACH-B, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B. The median follow-up period was 43.7months, during which 18 (1.0%) patients developed HCC. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of CU-HCC, REACH-B, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores to predict HCC risk at 36months were 0.815, 0.703, 0.794 and 0.825, respectively (all p<0.05). No significant difference among AUROCs of these scores was observed except those of mPAGE-B and REACH-B at 36months. The cumulative incidence of HCC in low- and high- risk groups based on CU-HCC, REACH-B, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B were 0.4% vs. 3.2%, 0.7% vs. 1.5%, 0.2% vs. 1.3%, and 0.2% vs. 1.7% at 36months, respectively (all p<0.05, except PAGE-B, log-rant test). Both CU-HCC and mPAGE-B scores accurately predict HCC risk in Chinese chronic HBV-infected patients. Patients with CU-HCC <5 or mPAGE-B <9 could be exempt from HCC surveillance within 36months.

Efficacy of entecavir versus tenofovir in preventing hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B with maintained virologic response.

Several studies suggested that efficacy of tenofovir in reducing the risk of the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) might be better than that of entecavir. It remains unknown whether a change in therapy can further reduce the risk of HCC in patients receiving entecavir therapy and achieved goal of antiviral therapy, a maintained undetectable hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA level in the serum. A total of 1336 treatment-naïve chronic HBV mono-infected adult patients, who started entecavir or tenofovir treatment and achieved a maintained virologic response during follow-up were analysed. During a median 4.4years of follow-up (range, 1.0-7.4years) after achieving virologic response, 99 patients developed HCC. The 5-year cumulative HCC incidence rate was 7.3% and 6.3% for the entecavir and tenofovir groups, respectively, with similar risk of HCC between the two groups (adjusted HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.52-1.29; p=0.3). The risk of HCC was similar in the propensity score-matched cohort (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.68-1.52; p=0.94) and inverse probability treatment weighting analysis (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.74-1.66; p=0.62). In the subgroup analysis, HCC risk was similar between the two drugs in both patients with and without cirrhosis. In patients showing maintained virologic response, no difference in the risk of HCC between entecavir and tenofovir was observed. This indicates entecavir might be as effective as tenofovir in the prevention of HCC among those patients and suggest that a change in therapy in anticipation of further reducing the risk of HCC might not be necessary for patients receiving entecavir and showing virologic response.

Controlled attenuation parameter value and the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients under antiviral therapy.

Controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) can evaluate hepatic steatosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). However, prognostic implications of CAP value remain unclear. We evaluated the association between CAP and the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with CHB under antiviral therapy and maintained virologic response. A total of 1823 CHB patients who were taking nucleos(t)ide analogue and showing suppressed hepatitis B virus replication were analyzed. The primary outcome was incident HCC during follow-up. Patients were grouped into those with and without advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) (liver stiffness measurement cutoff: 10kPa), and those with and without hepatic steatosis (CAP cutoff: 222dB/m). During 6.4years of follow-up, 127 patients (7.0%) newly developed HCC. Among patients with ACLD (n = 382), the cumulative HCC incidence rate was lower for those with CAP ≥ 222 (11.0% at 5years) than those with CAP < 222 (24.0% at 5years, p = 0.002), and was an independent factor associated with HCC. When CAP value was further stratified, the cumulative HCC incidence rate decreased in dose-dependent manner according to an increase in CAP value (24.0%, 13.9%, 12.8% and 6.0% at 5years for those with CAP < 222, 222-246, 247-273 and ≥ 274, respectively). Among patients without ACLD (n = 1441), there was no significance difference in HCC risk according to CAP value (HCC incidence rate: 3.3% and 4.0% at 5years for those with CAP < 222 and CAP ≥ 222, p = 0.20). Among CHB patients under antiviral therapy showing suppressed HBV replication, low CAP value predicted higher risk for HCC among ACLD patients, indicating that CAP value has a prognostic implication in this population.

Development of a simple dynamic algorithm for individualized hepatocellular carcinoma risk-based surveillance using pre- and post-treatment general evaluation score.

With the growing number of treated hepatitis C patients, the current 'one-size-fits-all' hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance strategies for patients with advanced fibrosis represents a great burden on healthcare systems. An individualized HCC risk strategy incorporates the dynamic changes of HCC risk are lacking. This single-centre observational study included 3075 patients, with advanced fibrosis (≥F3) who achieved SVR following DAAs at Egyptian Liver research institute and hospital (ELRIAH) with follow-up period (range 6-72months). The performance of a recently developed General Evaluation Score (GES) HCC risk stratification score was calculated pre- and post-treatment using Harrell's c statistic. Times to HCC and cumulative incidences were calculated with Kaplan-Meier method and compared using log-rank (Mantel-Cox) test. Pre-treatment GES score stratified patients into low (60.4%), intermediate (23.4%), and (16.2%) high-risk score where 5-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 1.66%, 4.45% and 7.64%, respectively. Harrell's c statistic was 0.801. Post-treatment GES score stratified patients into low (57.4%), intermediate (30.7%) and (11.9%) high-risk score where 5-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 1.35%, 3.49% and 11.09% respectively. The cumulative HCC incidence increased significantly with higher scores (P < .001). Harrell's c statistic was 0.818. Using pre- and post-treatment GES score, GES algorithm was developed with higher predictive value. The cumulative HCC incidence increased significantly with higher scores (P < .001). Harrell's c statistic was 0.832. A dynamic algorithm incorporating both pre- and post-GES scores have better performance and predictive value compared with only pre-treatment assessments. The proposed algorithm would help to stratify those who need intensive or being excluded from screening.

Association of Physical Activity with the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B.

Simple SummaryAlthough viral replication in patients with a chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection is effectively suppressed by potent antiviral therapy such as entecavir or tenofovir, the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in CHB patients cannot be totally eliminated. Thus, control of modifiable risk factors for HCC development such as lifestyle modification is important to minimize the HCC risk. In this study, we analyzed a nationwide population-based cohort to evaluate whether there is a significant association between physical activity and development of HCC in CHB patients treated with entecavir or tenofovir. Results in this study suggest that physical activity was significantly associated with a lower risk of HCC development in CHB patients treated with potent antiviral therapy. Increasing physical activity can have beneficial outcomes on HCC development in CHB patients treated with entecavir or tenofovir.Background and Aims: In the general population, previous studies reported that physical activity was associated with risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development. However, it is unclear whether physical activity is associated with risk of HCC development in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We aimed to elucidate the association between physical activity and risk of HCC development in CHB patients. Methods: This nationwide cohort study involved treatment-naive patients with CHB (n = 9727) who started treatment with entecavir or tenofovir and answered self-reported questionnaires between January 2012 and December 2017, using data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service database. The primary endpoint was development of HCC. Multivariable Cox regression and competing risk analyses were used. Results: During a median follow-up of 3.1 years, cumulative HCC incidence rates were 8.3%. There was an inverse association between physical activity and the risk of HCC (p < 0.001). Patients with 1000–1500 metabolic equivalent task (MET)-min/week, compared to those without physical activity, showed a significantly lower risk of HCC in both patients without cirrhosis (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.66, p = 0.02) and patients with cirrhosis (aHR 0.61, p = 0.02). In patients who were younger (<60), male, without diabetes, and with high BMI, amounts of physical activity of 1000–1500 MET-min/week showed an inverse association with the risk of HCC (aHR 0.65, 0.63, 0.65, and 0.64, respectively, all p < 0.05). Conclusion: Physical activity was significantly associated with a low risk of HCC in CHB patients treated with entecavir or tenofovir.

Nonselective beta‐blockers are associated with a lower risk of hepatocellular carcinoma among cirrhotic patients in the United States

Previous studies have demonstrated an association between nonselective beta-blockers (NSBBs) and lower risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in cirrhosis. However, there has been no population-based study investigating the risk of HCC among cirrhotic patients treated using carvedilol. To determine the risk of HCC among cirrhotic patients with NSBBs including carvedilol. This retrospective cohort study utilised the Cerner Health Facts database in the United States from 2000 to 2017. Kaplan-Meier estimate, Cox proportional hazards regression, and propensity score matching (PSM) were used to test the HCC risk among the carvedilol, nadolol, and propranolol groups compared with no beta-blocker group. The final cohort comprised 107428 eligible patients. The 100-month cumulative HCC incidence of NSBBs was significantly lower than the no beta-blocker group (carvedilol (11.24%) vs no beta-blocker (15.69%), nadolol (27.55%) vs no beta-blocker (32.11%), and propranolol (26.17%) vs no beta-blocker (28.84%) (P values<0.0001). NSBBs were associated with a significantly lower risk of HCC (Hazard ratio: carvedilol 0.61 (95% CI 0.51-0.73), nadolol 0.74 (95% CI 0.63-0.87), propranolol 0.75 (95% CI 0.66-0.84) after PSM in the multivariate cox analysis. In subgroup analysis, NSBBs reduced the risk of HCC in cirrhosis with complications and non-alcoholic cirrhosis. NSBBs, including carvedilol, were associated with a significantly decreased risk of HCC in patients with cirrhosis when compared with no beta-blocker regardless of complications status. Future randomised-controlled studies comparing the incidence of HCC among NSBBs should elucidate which NSBB would be the best option to prevent HCC in cirrhosis.

Investigation of the Effect of KIR-HLA Pairs on Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Hepatitis C Virus Cirrhotic Patients.

Simple SummaryNatural killer (NK) cells normally respond to tumor cells and virally infected cells by killing them via the innate immune system. However, the functional impairment of NK cells has been observed in hepatocellular carcinoma. The NK-cell phenotype is partially mediated through the binding of killer cell immunoglobulin-like receptors (KIR) with human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I ligands. This study evaluated the involvement of KIR–HLA pairs in hepatocellular carcinoma development in 211 patients with hepatitis C virus-associated cirrhosis. HLA-Bw4 and the KIR3DL1+HLA-Bw4 pair were significantly associated with hepatocellular carcinoma onset during a median follow-up of 6.6 years, which suggested that functional interactions between KIR and HLA or HLA-Bw4 may influence the risk of cancer development.Natural killer cells are partially mediated through the binding of killer cell immunoglobulin-like receptors (KIR) with human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I ligands. This investigation examined the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in relation to KIR–HLA pairs in patients with compensated hepatitis C virus (HCV)-associated cirrhosis. A total of 211 Japanese compensated HCV cirrhotic cases were retrospectively enrolled. After KIR, HLA-A, HLA-Bw, and HLA-C typing, associations between HLA, KIR, and KIR–HLA combinations and HCC development were evaluated using the Cox proportional hazards model with the stepwise method. During a median follow-up period of 6.6 years, 69.7% of patients exhibited HCC. The proportions of HLA-Bw4 and the KIR3DL1 + HLA-Bw4 pair were significantly higher in patients with HCC than in those without (78.9% vs. 64.1%; odds ratio (OR)—2.10, 95% confidence interval (CI)—1.10–4.01; p = 0.023 and 76.2% vs. 60.9%, odds ratio—2.05, p = 0.024, respectively). Multivariate analysis revealed the factors of male gender (hazard ratio (HR)—1.56, 95% CI—1.12–2.17; p = 0.009), α-fetoprotein > 5.6 ng/mL (HR—1.56, 95% CI—1.10–2.10; p = 0.011), and KIR3DL1 + HLA-Bw4 (HR—1.69, 95% CI—1.15–2.48; p = 0.007) as independent risk factors for developing HCC. Furthermore, the cumulative incidence of HCC was significantly higher in patients with KIR3DL1 + HLA-Bw4 than in those without (log-rank test; p = 0.013). The above findings suggest KIR3DL1 + HLA-Bw4, in addition to HLA-Bw4, as a novel KIR–HLA pair possibly associated with HCC development in HCV cirrhosis. HCV-associated cirrhotic patients with the risk factors of male gender, α-fetoprotein > 5.6 ng/mL, and KIR3DL1 + HLA-Bw4 may require careful surveillance for HCC onset.

Highly sensitive Lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive fraction of α-fetoprotein is a predictive marker for hepatocarcinogenesis in long-term observation of patients with chronic liver disease.

Highly sensitive Lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive fraction of α-fetoprotein (hs-AFP-L3) is a specific marker for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and has been reliable in cases with a low serum α-fetoprotein (AFP) level. However, the biomarkers that contribute to hepatocarcinogenesis during the long-term observation are not yet clear. The present study reported the clinical utility of hs-AFP-L3 in the long-term observation of patients with chronic liver disease. The subjects were 106 patients with chronic liver disease without HCC or a history of HCC treatment and who had been followed for >12 months. hs-AFP-L3 was measured using cryopreserved serum. The factors contributing to hepatocarcinogenesis were examined using univariate and multivariate analyses. The median observation period was 88 months (15-132 months). The cumulative incidence of HCC was 10.5% at 5 years and 19.6% at 10 years. The univariate analysis revealed that age ≥55 years old, platelet count ≤13.1x104/µl, hyaluronic acid ≥80.8 ng/ml, alanine transaminase ≥47 U/l, AFP ≥6.3 ng/ml, hs-AFP-L3 ≥3.5% and des-γ-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) ≥25 mAU/ml were significant factors. In the multivariate analysis, platelet count ≤13.1x104/µl [hazard ratio (HR), 4.966; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.597-15.437; P=0.006] and hs-AFP-L3 ≥3.5% (HR, 5.450; 95% CI, 1.522-19.512; P=0.009) were extracted as significant factors contributing to hepatocarcinogenesis. In addition, for cases with AFP <20 ng/ml, a multivariate analysis revealed that hs-AFP-L3 ≥4.9% (HR, 11.608; 95% CI, 2.422-55.629; P=0.002) and DCP ≥25 mAU/ml (HR, 3.936; 95% CI, 1.088-14.231; P=0.037) were significant factors contributing to hepatocarcinogenesis. hs-AFP-L3 is a useful marker for predicting hepatocarcinogenesis in the long-term observation of patients with chronic liver disease.

Association of central obesity with hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B receiving antiviral therapy.

Obesity is typically associated with metabolic dysfunction, but its impact on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains unclear in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). To study the effect of obesity on HCC development in patients with CHB receiving antiviral therapy. We included patients from a Chinese multicentre, prospective, observational, treated CHB cohort in this study. General obesity was evaluated by body-mass index (BMI). Central obesity was evaluated by waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio and waist-to-height ratio. A total of 5754 nucleos(t)ide analogue treated patients were enrolled in the analysis. The 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 2.9%. Waist-to-height ratio performed better in predicting HCC development than BMI, waist circumference or waist-to-hip ratio. Patients with central obesity (defined as waist-to-height ratio >0.5) had significantly higher 5-year incidence of HCC than those without central obesity in the overall population (3.9% vs 2.1%, hazard ratio [HR]: 2.06, P=0.0001) and 745 propensity score matched pairs (4.7% vs 2.3%, HR: 2.04, P=0.026), respectively. Besides cirrhosis status and aMAP HCC risk score, central obesity was also independently associated with HCC risk (HR: 1.63, P=0.013). Waist-to-height ratio gain within 1year was associated with a significantly higher HCC risk with an adjusted HR value of 1.88 (95% confidence interval: 1.12-3.13, P=0.017). Central obesity, evaluated by the waist-to-height ratio, was associated with a twofold increase in HCC risk among CHB patients receiving antiviral treatment, highlighting the important role of abnormal metabolic function in the progression of liver disease.

Hepatitis B core-related antigen predicts disease progression and hepatocellular carcinoma in hepatitis B e antigen-negative chronic hepatitis B patients.

The serum hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) is considered a surrogate marker of the amount and activity of intrahepatic covalently closed circular DNA. This study aims to investigate the virological characteristics of HBcrAg in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients and to reveal the hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk factors of hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative patients. Hepatitis B core-related antigen was measured in 245 naive CHB patients before receiving nucleoside/nucleotide analog (NA) therapy. All patients were receiving NA (entecavir, tenofovir disoproxil fumarate, and tenofovir alafenamide) continuously for more than 1year until the end of follow-up, and they did not have a history of HCC. Hepatitis B viral status was compared between 106 HBeAg-positive and 139 HBeAg-negative patients. Median HBcrAg levels were significantly higher in HBeAg-positive patients than in HBeAg-negative patients (>6.8 vs 3.7log U/mL, P<0.01). In HBeAg-negative patients, higher HBcrAg levels were associated with cirrhosis (119 chronic hepatitis/20 cirrhosis=3.5/4.7log U/mL, P=0.03) and higher serum hepatitis B virus DNA. During a median follow-up of 5.28 (1.03-12.0) years, the 5-year cumulative HCC incidence rate was 5.4% in the HBeAg-negative cohort. In the multivariate Cox regression analysis, higher HBcrAg levels at 1year were independent predictive factors for HCC development in HBeAg-negative patients who received NA therapy (cutoff value, 4.1log U/mL; hazard ratio, 6.749; 95% confidence interval, 1.334-34.15, P<0.01) and even in non-cirrhosis patients. Hepatitis B core-related antigen was useful for understanding disease progression in CHB patients and for stratifying the risk for carcinogenesis in HBeAg-negative patients receiving NA therapy.

Predictive Performance of CAGE-B and SAGE-B Models in Asian Treatment-Naive Patients Who Started Entecavir for Chronic Hepatitis B

Cirrhosis and age (CAGE-B) and stiffness and age (SAGE-B) models assess the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in white patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) undergoing sustained antiviral therapy (AVT). Herein, we checked the predictive performance of these models in Asian patients with CHB. We reviewed 734 treatment-naive patients with CHB who started entecavir between 2006 and 2011 and were followed up for more than 5 years without HCC development during AVT. The predictive performance of CAGE-B and SAGE-B models was calculated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs). Median liver stiffness assessed using transient elastography after 5 years of AVT was 6.8 kPa. Median CAGE-B and SAGE-B models after 5 years of AVT were 7.0 and 6.0, respectively. More than 5 years after AVT initiation, 66 patients (9.0%) developed HCC. The AUROCs of the CAGE-B and SAGE-B models were 0.764 and 0.785 after 7 years and 0.799 and 0.802 after 10 years of AVT, respectively. The cumulative incidence of HCC was significantly higher in the high-risk groups according to CAGE-B and SAGE-B risk stratification than in the medium- and low-risk groups (P < .05 in all cases). The SAGE-B model showed a higher likelihood ratio (χ2) (76.2 vs 71.4) and linear trend (χ2) (74.1 vs 58.6) than the CAGE-B model, whereas the CAGE-B model showed higher Akaike information criteria (64.3 vs 50.3). Both SAGE-B and CAGE-B showed acceptable performance in predicting HCC after 5 years of AVT in Asian patients with CHB.

Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio and the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with hepatitis B-caused cirrhosis.

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been reported as a prognostic marker of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC); however, the relationship between NLR and risk of HCC occurrence has yet to be systematically elucidated. We aimed to investigate the association between NLR and HCC risk in patients with hepatitis B-caused cirrhosis (HBC) undergoing antiviral therapy. A total of 1599 patients with HBC receiving entecavir or tenofovir at three tertiary hospitals between June 2014 and November 2017 were included. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify the association between NLR and risk of HCC occurrence by adjusting for potential risk factors. The cumulative incidence of HCC was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. At study enrollment, the median NLR was 2.0 (interquartile range, 1.4-3.0). The 3-year cumulative probabilities of HCC were 4.8, 8.4, 13.2, and 18.0% across the NLR quartiles, respectively (P < 0.001). Compared with the lowest quartile, higher NLR correlated with an increased HCC occurrence [NLR 1.4-2.0: adjusted hazard ratio (aHR), 1.18 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.11-1.25); NLR 2.0-3.0: aHR, 2.09 (95% CI, 1.19-3.66); NLR > 3.0: aHR, 2.80 (95% CI, 1.59-4.95); P for trend = 0.001] in the fully adjusted models. In the subgroup analysis, elevated NLR was associated with increased HCC risk, regardless of stratification criteria. Elevated NLR is an independent risk factor for HCC occurrence in patients with HBC undergoing antiviral therapy.

Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma after spontaneous and nucleos(t)ide analogue induced hepatitis B surface antigen seroclearance.

e16162 Background: Despite a favorable clinical course, the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) still exists in patients achieving HBsAg seroclearance. Therefore, we investigated the incidence of HCC after spontaneous and nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) induced HBsAg seroclearance in real-life clinical practice. Methods: A cohort study was conducted using data from Gangnam Severance Hospital. We identified all subjects with positive HBsAg between January 1, 2001 and March 21, 2018. NA use, liver biochemistries, serial HBsAg and anti-HBs results were retrieved. The primary endpoint was the incidence of HCC after naturally and NA induced HBsAg seroclearance. Results: Among the 5,609 HBsAg-positive patients, 83 chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients achieved HBsAg seroclearance during 19 years. The cumulative incidence of HBsAg seroclearance was 0.024% at 2 years to 32.4% at 19 years. Of the 83 patients with HBsAg seroclearance, 52 patients achieved spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance and 31 patients achieved NA-induced HBsAg seroclearance. Of 52 patients with spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance, only one patient (2%) developed HCC 6 months after HBsAg seroclearance. On the other hands, there was no development of HCC in patients with NA-induced HBsAg seroclearance. No significant difference was observed in the cumulative incidence of HCC between two groups ( P=0.443). All patients had sustained HBsAg seroclearance and there was no HBsAg seroreversion. Conclusions: The incidence of HCC was extremely rare after spontaneous and NA induced HBsAg seroclearance in real-life clinical practice. NA-induced HBsAg seroclearance is also as durable as spontaenous HBsAg seroclearance.

Early Normalization of Alanine Aminotransferase during Antiviral Therapy Reduces Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in HBV Patients.

Potent antiviral agents effectively reduce liver-related events in patients with chronic hepatitis B. This study aimed to determine whether alanine aminotransferase normalization using potent antiviral agents was related to hepatocellular carcinoma development. From 2007 to 2017, we included 610 patients with chronic hepatitis B who received entecavir or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate. The patients were divided into the alanine aminotransferase normalization group (Gr.1) and non-normalization group (Gr.2) within a year of potent antiviral treatment. Liver-related events included hepatic encephalopathy, variceal bleeding, and ascites. The mortality rate and hepatocellular carcinoma incidence were investigated for each group. The patients who showed ALT normalization at 1 year of treatment were 397 (65.1%) of 610. During a median follow-up period of 86 months, 65 (10.7%) patients developed hepatocellular carcinoma. The cumulative incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma was significantly lower in Gr.1 than in Gr.2 (p < 0.001). Risk factors for alanine aminotransferase non-normalization were body mass index, cholesterol, and liver cirrhosis at baseline. Male sex, age, platelet level, alcohol use, presence of cirrhosis at baseline, and non-normalization after 1 year of treatment were independent risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma. Alanine aminotransferase normalization within 1 year of initiating antiviral agents reduces the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma development.

Plasma interleukin-17 and alpha-fetoprotein combination effectively predicts imminent hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence in liver cirrhotic patients

BackgroundPredicting imminent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in liver cirrhotic patients is an unmet medical need. We aimed to investigate circulatory biomarkers and their optimum combinations in a prospective study.MethodsWe investigated plasma interleukin 17 (IL-17) concentrations, quantified using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), for the prediction of HCC in a large cohort of 404 HCC-naïve liver cirrhotic patients regularly followed after recruitment. Additionally, IL-17 in surgically resected tumor tissues were evaluated using immunohistochemistry staining.ResultsIL-17 was detected in HCC tissues. The IL-17 concentrations in the peripheral blood do not have correlation with an extensive list of 31 common demographic, metabolic and liver function variables in the cohort of liver cirrhotic patients. Furthermore, patients stratified by IL-17 and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) showed distinctive cumulative incidence of HCC. Imminent HCC, defined here as HCC occurrence within 1 year, can be predicted by IL-17 alone with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] of 0.762 (P = 0.002). An multivariate analysis showed that age, hepatitis C viral infection, AFP and IL-17 were four independent factors associated with imminent HCC (adjusted P = 0.03, 0.041, 0.024 and 0.008 respectively). An explicit risk score (R) combining the concentrations of two plasma biomarkers, AFP and IL-17, achieved a high AUC of 0.933 (95% confidence interval 0.893–0.972, P < 0.001) in predicting imminent HCC, with 100% sensitivity and 79.9% specificity at the optimum cutoff. The score is defined as: {text{R}} = (2.6914)*{text{IL-17}} + (0.3909)*{text{AFP}} - (0.80812875)*{text{IL-17}}^{2} + (0.10288876884)*{text{IL-17}}^{2} *{text{AFP}}.ConclusionsThe circulatory IL-17 concentration is a predictor of subsequent HCC occurrence in liver cirrhotic patients. The combination of AFP and IL-17 is highly effective in predicting imminent HCC within 1 year.

Role of hepatitis D virus infection in development of hepatocellular carcinoma among chronic hepatitis B patients treated with nucleotide/nucleoside analogues

Hepatitis D virus (HDV) infection increases the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the natural course of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. Its role in patients treated with nucleotide/nucleoside analogues (NAs) is unclear. We aimed to study the role of hepatitis D in the development of HCC in CHB patients treated with NAs. Altogether, 1349 CHB patients treated with NAs were tested for anti-HDV antibody and RNA. The incidence and risk factors of HCC development were analyzed. Rates of anti-HDV and HDV RNA positivity were 2.3% and 1.0%, respectively. The annual incidence of HCC was 1.4 per 100 person-years after a follow-up period of over 5409.5 person-years. The strongest factor association with HCC development was liver cirrhosis (hazard ratio [HR]/95% confidence interval [CI] 9.98/5.11–19.46, P < 0.001), followed by HDV RNA positivity (HR/ CI 5.73/1.35–24.29, P = 0.02), age > 50 years old (HR/CI 3.64/2.03–6.54, P < 0.001), male gender (HR/CI 2.69/1.29–5.60, P: 0.01), and body mass index (BMI, HR/CI 1.11/1.03–1.18, P = 0.004). The 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 7.3% for patients with HDV RNA negativity compared to that of 22.2% for patients with HDV RNA positivity (P = 0.01). In the subgroup of cirrhotic patients, the factors associated with HCC development were HDV RNA positivity (HR/CI 4.45/1.04–19.09, P = 0.04) and BMI (HR/CI 1.11/1.03–1.19, P = 0.01). HDV viremia played a crucial role in HCC development in CHB patients who underwent NA therapy.

Risk analysis for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B-associated cirrhosis complicated by type 2 diabetes mellitus: a 5-year prospective cohort study

To elucidate the risk and synergistic factors of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B-associated cirrhosis (CHB-Cir) complicated by type 2 diabetes (T2DM). The patients with CHB-Cir who were followed up in Hepatology Center of Nanfang Hospital from June 2010 to June 2019 were divided based on their T2DM status into two cohorts matched for gender, age, HBeAg status and HBV DNA load: CHB-Cir with T2DM group (observation group) and CHB-Cir without T2DM group (control group). All the patients were followed up at a 6-month interval, and the cases with complete clinical data and follow-up data for more than 2 years were included in the analysis. Kaplan- Meier method was used to compare the cumulative incidence of HCC between the two groups. A Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to analyze the relationship between T2DM and the risk of HCC in these patients. A total of 467 patients with a mean follow-up time of 4.4±1.62 years were included in the analysis, including 203 in the observation group and 264 in the control group. Sixty-nine and forty-eight new HCC cases occurred in the observation group and control group, respectively, showing a significantly higher incidence rate of HCC in the observation group (P < 0.001). The cumulative incidence of HCC in the observation group was significantly higher than that in the control group (P < 0.001), with a relative risk of 2.096 (P < 0.01). After adjustment for age (≥40 years), family history of liver cancer, previous antiviral therapy, elevated cholesterol and elevated LDL cholesterol, T2DM remained an independent risk factor for HCC in CHB-Cir patients (P=0.000). T2DM is an independent risk factor for HCC, and the risk of HCC increases by more than two folds in CHB-Cir patients complicated by T2DM, suggesting the clinical significance of early interventions of diabetes to reduce the risk of HCC in CHB-Cir patients.