Cumulative Incidence Of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Research Articles

The occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma in different risk stratifications of clinically noncirrhotic nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) may be a cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but its high prevalence challenges current surveillance strategies. We aimed to evaluate HCC incidences in different risk stratifications for noncirrhotic NAFLD. Using Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database, we located 31,571 patients with NAFLD between the years 1998 and 2012. After excluding other causes of hepatitis, underlying cirrhosis or malignancy, 18,080 patients were recruited for final analysis. Cumulative incidences of HCC were analyzed after adjusting for competing mortality. With a median follow-up duration of 6.32 years in the study cohort, the 10-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 2.73% [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.69-3.76%]. Hepatoprotectant was used as a surrogate marker for elevated serum alanine transaminase (ALT). After adjusting for age, gender, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes mellitus, gout, statin use, metformin use and aspirin use, elevated ALT was independently associated with an increased HCC risk [hazard ratio (HR) 6.80, 95% CI: 3.00-15.42; p < 0.001]. Multivariate stratified analysis verified this association in all subgroups (HR> 1.0). Moreover, increased age (HR 1.08 per year, 95% CI: 1.05-1.11) and statin use (HR 0.29, 95% CI: 0.12-0.68) were also identified as independent risk factors. The 10-year cumulative HCC incidence was highest in older (age >55 years) patients with ALT elevation (12.41%, 95% CI: 5.99-18.83%), but lowest in younger patients without ALT elevation (0.36%, 95% CI: 0-1.08%). The incidence of HCC was relatively low in patients with clinically noncirrhotic NAFLD, however, HCC risk was significantly increased in older patients experiencing an elevated serum ALT.

Impact of age and gender on risk of hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatitis B surface antigen seroclearance

Previous studies suggested spontaneous seroclearance of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) was still associated with an increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), in patients ⩾50years of age. This study aimed to evaluate the risk of HCC after HBsAg seroclearance and the impact of gender on HCC. All chronic hepatitis B patients under medical care in Hospital Authority, Hong Kong who had cleared HBsAg between January 2000 and August 2016 were identified. The age of the patient at HBsAg seroclearance, gender, and subsequent development of HCC were analyzed. A total of 4,568 patients with HBsAg seroclearance were identified; 793 (17.4%) were treated by nucleos(t)ide analogues and 60 (1.3%) had received interferon treatment. At a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 3.4 (1.5-5.0)years, 54 patients developed HCC; cumulative incidences of HCC at 1, 3 and 5years were 0.9%, 1.3% and 1.5%, respectively. Age above 50years (adjusted hazard ratio 4.31, 95% confidence interval 1.72-10.84; p=0.002) and male gender (2.47, 1.24-4.91; p=0.01) were two independent risk factors of HCC. Female patients aged ⩽50years (n=545) had zero risk of HCC within 5years of follow-up. Male patients aged ⩽50years (n=769), female patients aged >50years (n=1,149) and male patients aged >50years (n=2,105) had a 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC 0.7%, 1.0% and 2.5%, respectively. Similar findings were observed in patients with spontaneous and antiviral treatment-induced HBsAg seroclearance. Female patients aged 50years or below have zero risk of HCC after HBsAg seroclearance, whereas female patients aged above 50years and all male patients are still at risk of HCC. Lay summary: We investigated 4,568 patients with hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance. Female patients aged 50years or below have zero risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after HBsAg seroclearance, whereas female patients aged above 50years and all male patients are still at risk of HCC.

Time-Degenerative Factors and the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Antiviral Therapy among Hepatitis C Virus Patients: A Model for Prioritization of Treatment.

Purpose: Age and hepatic fibrosis are the factors that increase the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma over time. We aimed to explore their impact at the initiation of antiviral therapy on hepatocellular carcinoma among chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients.Experimental Design: A total of 1,281 biopsy-proven CHC patients receiving IFN-based therapy were followed for a mean period of 5.5 years.Results: The 5-year cumulative incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma did not differ between non-sustained virological response (SVR) and SVR patients who were <40 years old (7.7% vs. 0.5%, P = 0.1) but was significantly higher in non-SVR patients between 40 and 55 years old (18.0% vs. 1.3%, P < 0.001) and >55 years old (15.1% vs. 7.9%, P = 0.03). Compared with SVR, non-SVR was independently predictive of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients 40 to 55 years old [HR/95% confidence intervals (CI), 10.92/3.78-31.56; P < 0.001] and >55 years old (HR/CI, 1.96/1.06-3.63; P = 0.03) but not in patients <40 years old (HR/CI, 2.76/0.41-18.84; P = 0.3). The 5-year cumulative incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma did not differ between non-SVR and SVR patients whose fibrosis stage was F0-1 (4.6% vs. 1.9%, P = 0.25) but was higher in non-SVR patients with F2-3 (21.4% vs. 4.3%, P < 0.001) or F4 (33.5% vs. 8.4%, P = 0.002). Compared with SVR, non-SVR was independently predictive of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with F2-3 (HR/CI, 4.36/2.10-9.03; P < 0.001) and F4 (HR/CI, 3.84/1.59-9.30; P = 0.03) but not in those with F0-1 (HR/CI, 1.53/0.49-4.74; P = 0.47).Conclusions: Delayed hepatitis C virus clearance for patients with CHC >40 years old or with a fibrosis stage >2 increases the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma over time. Clin Cancer Res; 23(7); 1690-7. ©2016 AACR.

A Circulating MicroRNA Signature Capable of Assessing the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Cirrhotic Patients

With the availability of potent antiviral therapies, complete suppression of hepatitis B virus (HBV) replication and total eradication of hepatitis C virus (HCV) can now be achieved. Despite these advances, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) still develops in a substantial proportion of cirrhotic patients, suggesting that host factors remain critical. Dysregulation of miRNAs is noted in many cancers, and circulating miRNAs can be readily assayed. In this study, we aimed to develop a circulating miRNA signature to assess the risk of HCC in cirrhotic patients. We first discovered that HBV- and HCV-related cirrhotic patients had distinguishable circulating miRNA profiles. A cohort of 330 cirrhotic patients was then compared against a cohort of 42 early HCC patients with complete remission. A score comprising 5 miRNAs and a binary etiology variable was established that was capable of differentiating between these two groups (AUC = 72.5%, P < 0.001). The 330 cirrhotic patients were further stratified into high- and low-risk groups, and all patients were longitudinally followed for 752 (11–891) days. Of them, 19 patients developed HCC. The high-risk group had significantly higher cumulative HCC incidence (P = 0.038). In summary, a circulating miRNA-based score was developed that is capable of assessing HCC risks in cirrhotic patients.

Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma among individuals with different aetiologies of cirrhosis: a population-based cohort study.

Among patients with cirrhosis, only those determined to be at risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) should undergo surveillance. However, little is known about how different aetiologies of cirrhosis affect risk for HCC. To quantify the cumulative incidence of HCC among a representative population of people with cirrhosis of the liver of varying aetiology. We identified subjects with hepatic cirrhosis from the UK's General Practice Research Database (1987-2006). Diagnoses of HCC were obtained from linked national cancer registries (1971-2006). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios. The predicted 10-year cumulative incidence of HCC for each aetiology of cirrhosis was estimated while accounting for competing risks of death from any cause and liver transplant. Among 3107 people with cirrhosis, the adjusted relative risk of HCC was increased twofold to threefold among people with viral and autoimmune/metabolic aetiologies, compared to those with alcohol-associated cirrhosis. The 10-year predicted cumulative incidence estimates of HCC for each aetiology were alcohol, 1.2%; chronic viral hepatitis, 4.0%; autoimmune or metabolic disease, 3.2%; and cryptogenic, 1.1%. In a population-based study in the UK, people with cirrhosis have an estimated cumulative 10-year incidence of HCC of 4% or lower. Cumulative incidence varies with aetiology such that individuals with alcohol or cryptogenic cirrhosis have the lowest risk for HCC. These findings provide important information for cost-effectiveness analyses of HCC surveillance.

Impact of direct-acting antiviral agents-induced SVR on the long-term burden of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis C cirrhosis.

230 Background: Sustained virological response (SVR) has been associated with decreased morbidity and mortality from hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Data are sparse, however, about the long-term benefits of direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) in terms of risk reduction for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We estimate the impact of SVR on the HCC incidence in the DAA era when SVR is achieved nearly universally even in patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis. Methods: We constructed a Markovian model of 50-year-old patients with compensated HCV cirrhosis (n=1,000) to model the incidence of HCC over 20-years of follow-up. We compared 2 cohorts: 1) SVR following DAA therapy and 2) no SVR (natural history). In the latter, HCC would develop at an annual rate of 4.2% and patients would die as a result of end stage liver disease (ESLD) according to their MELD (=6 at baseline). In the former, MELD score would not increase, the HCC risk would decrease and, in some patients, cirrhosis would regress. Results: The table summarizes the 20-year outcome in the two cohorts. In the cohort without SVR, HCC would occur in 33% and 63% would die of ESLD. In the SVR cohort, the proportion of HCC would increase to 37% as the number of subjects at HCC risk would increase, as a result of a dramatic reduction in deaths from ESLD. In the univariate sensitivity analyses, the cumulative HCC incidence was mainly influenced by the rate at which the risk of HCC is decreased after SVR, followed by the change in cirrhosis regression rate. Conclusions: Although HCC risk would decrease after SVR in a given individual patient with cirrhosis, on the population level, highly effective DAA therapy may lead to a paradoxical increase in the burden of HCC. These data underscore the important of (1) HCC surveillance in patients with cirrhosis even after SVR and (2) DAA intervention before cirrhosis develops. [Table: see text]

Involvement of Ornithine Carbamoyltransferase in the Progression of Chronic Hepatitis C and Liver Cirrhosis.

Background: The involvement of serum ornithine carbamoyltransferase (OCT) in the progression of chronic hepatitis and liver cirrhosis is unclear.Methods: A total 256 patients with chronic hepatitis C and 5 healthy controls were examined. Serum OCT concentrations were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Serum OCT concentrations were compared with serum cytokine and chemokine levels, and with disease severity and development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).Results: The median OCT concentrations were 21.8 ng/ml for healthy controls, 36.7 ng/ml for F0 stage disease, 48.7 ng/ml for F1 stage, 77.9 ng/ml for F2 stage, 104.8 ng/ml for F3 stage, and 121.4 ng/ml for F4 stage. OCT concentrations were correlated with aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, γ-glutamyl transpeptidase, platelet counts, indocyanine green retention rate at 15 min, prothrombin times, the molar ratio of branched chain amino acids to tyrosine, and tyrosine. Furthermore, there were significant correlations among OCT concentrations and IP10 and IL18 levels. There were weak correlations between serum OCT concentrations and liver histology. The cumulative incidence of HCC in the high-OCT concentration group (≥75.3 ng/ml) was higher than that in the low-OCT concentration group.Conclusion: The measurement of serum OCT concentration may provide a useful marker of disease severity, and thus could be a useful marker for a high risk of HCC occurrence.

Comparison of FIB-4 index and aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index on carcinogenesis in chronic hepatitis B treated with entecavir.

Aims: We sought to compare the effects of FIB-4 index and aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients undergoing entecavir (ETV) therapy.Patient and methods: A total of 338 nucleosides analogue therapy naïve CHB patients initially treated with ETV were analyzed. The optimal cutoff points in each continuous variable were determined by receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis. The effects of FIB-4 index and APRI on HCC incidence were compared using time-dependent ROC analysis and factors linked to HCC incidence were also examined using univariate and multivariate analyses.Results: There were 215 males and 123 females with the median age of 52 years and the median baseline HBV-DNA level of 6.6 log copies/ml. The median follow-up interval after the initiation of ETV therapy was 4.99 years. During the follow-up period, 33 patients (9.8%) developed HCC. The 3-, 5- 7-year cumulative HCC incidence rates in all cases were 4.4%, 9.2% and 13.5%, respectively. In the multivariate analysis, FIB-4 index revealed to be an independent predictor associated with HCC incidence, while APRI was not. In the time-dependent ROC analyses for all cases and for all subgroups analyses stratified by viral status or cirrhosis status, all area under the ROCs in each time point (2-, 3-, 4-, 5-, 6-, and 7-year) of FIB-4 index were higher than those of APRI.Conclusion: FIB-4 index rather than APRI can be a useful predictor associated with HCC development for CHB patients undergoing ETV therapy.

Rapid Alanine Aminotransferase Normalization with Entecavir and Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Hepatitis B Virus-Associated Cirrhosis.

Sustained abnormal serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels can increase the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B. This study is aimed to confirm the impact of rapid ALT normalization (≤30IU/L) on HCC risk in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-associated cirrhosis after entecavir (ETV) commencement. A total of 578 treatment-naïve patients with HBV-associated cirrhosis (mean age 51±9years, male sex 63.3%) were treated with ETV for more than 1year. Serum ALT and HBV DNA levels were measured at three time points (baseline, 6, and 12months after ETV commencement) and subjected to risk factor analysis. Median follow-up after ETV commencement was 43 (12-98) months. Cumulative incidences of HCC at 1, 3, 5, and 7years were 0.3, 8.5, 19.5, and 30.6%, respectively. Univariate Cox regression analysis showed that older age, abnormal ALT at 6months or 12months, and lower platelet count were significant risk factors for HCC. However, gender, HBeAg positivity, abnormal ALT levels or HBV DNA levels at baseline, and detectable HBV DNA at 6 or 12months were not risk factors. Multivariate analysis showed that older age (P<0.001), abnormal ALT at 12months (P=0.006), and lower platelet count (P=0.034) were the risk factors for HCC. Abnormal serum ALT levels after ETV commencement are significant risk factor for HCC. Therefore, ALT should be rapidly normalized to minimize the risk of HCC development in patients with HBV-associated cirrhosis.

Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development after Hepatitis C Virus Eradication Using Serum Wisteria floribunda Agglutinin-Positive Mac-2-Binding Protein

We aimed to clarify the association between a novel serum fibrosis marker, Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive Mac-2-binding protein (WFA+-M2BP), and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in 355 patients with chronic hepatitis C who achieved sustained virologic response (SVR) through interferon-based antiviral therapy. Pretreatment serum WFA+-M2BP levels were quantified and the hazard ratios (HRs) for HCC development were retrospectively analyzed by Cox proportional hazard analysis. During the median follow-up time of 2.9 years, 12 patients developed HCC. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that high serum WFA+-M2BP (≥2.80 cut off index (COI), HR = 15.20, p = 0.013) and high fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index (≥3.7, HR = 5.62, p = 0.034) were independent risk factors for HCC development. The three- and five-year cumulative incidence of HCC in patients with low WFA+-M2BP were 0.4% and 0.4%, respectively, whereas those of patients with high WFA+-M2BP were 7.7% and 17.6%, respectively (p < 0.001). In addition, combination of serum WFA+-M2BP and FIB-4 indices successfully stratified the risk of HCC: the five-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 26.9%, 6.8%, and 0.0% in patients with both, either, and none of these risk factors, respectively (p < 0.001). In conclusion, pretreatment serum WFA+-M2BP level is a useful predictor for HCC development after achieving SVR.

Risk of cirrhosis-related complications in patients with advanced fibrosis following hepatitis C virus eradication

The risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is reduced but not eradicated among patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-induced advanced hepatic fibrosis who attained sustained viral response (SVR). We aimed to assess the risk of cirrhosis-related complications in this specific group of patients. Data from previously reported Western cohort studies including patients with chronic HCV infection and bridging fibrosis or cirrhosis who attained SVR were pooled for survival analyses on the individual patient level. The primary endpoint was HCC and the secondary endpoint was clinical disease progression, defined as liver failure, HCC or death. Included were 1000 patients with SVR. Median age was 52.7 (IQR 45.1-59.7) years, 676 (68%) were male and 842 (85%) had cirrhosis. Median follow-up was 5.7 (IQR 2.9-8.0) years. Fifty-one patients developed HCC and 101 had clinical disease progression. The cumulative 8-year HCC incidence was 1.8 (95% CI 0.0-4.3) among patients with bridging fibrosis and 8.7% (95% CI 6.0-11.4) among those with cirrhosis (p=0.058). Within the cirrhosis group, the 8-year HCC incidence was 2.6% (95% CI 0.0-5.5) among patients <45years, 9.7% (95% CI 5.8-13.6) among patients from 45-60years, and 12.2% (95% CI 5.3-19.1) among patients >60years of age at start of therapy (p=0.006). Multivariable Cox analyses indicated that higher age, lower platelet count and diabetes mellitus were independently associated with development of HCC. After 8years 4.2% (95% CI 0.1-8.3) of patients with bridging fibrosis and 15.8% (95% CI 12.3-19.3) of patients with cirrhosis experienced clinical disease progression (p=0.007). Patients with HCV-induced cirrhosis and SVR showed an annual risk of approximately 1% for HCC and 2% for clinical disease progression. Therefore, to prevent HCC surveillance, chronic HCV infection should preferably be treated before cirrhosis has developed. Patients with cirrhosis who were able to eradicate their chronic HCV infection remain at substantial risk of primary liver cancer. The risk of liver cancer increases with higher age, laboratory makers suggesting more severe liver disease, and presence of diabetes mellitus. Also after successful antiviral therapy patients with HCV-induced cirrhosis should thus remain included in follow-up for early detection of liver cancer.

Subclinical Ascites Does Not Affect the Long-term Prognosis in Hepatitis B Virus-related Cirrhosis Patients Receiving Antivirals.

This study evaluated the clinical significance of subclinical ascites in patients with hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis treated with lamivudine (LMV) or entecavir (ETV). This multicenter retrospective study involved 8 hospitals. Patients were classified by degree of ascites: (1) no ascites (no ascites on imaging, no diuretics), (2) subclinical ascites (small amount of ascites on imaging, no diuretics), and (3) clinical ascites (moderate to severe ascites or diuretics). Out of 501 patients, 336 (68%), 51 (10%), and 114 (23%) patients were classified as no-ascites, subclinical ascites, and clinical ascites, respectively. In all, 100 (20%) and 401 (80%) were treated with LMV and ETV, respectively. Over 58±24 months of follow-up, 105 patients (21%) developed hepatocellular carcinoma. The cumulative incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma did not differ between LMV-treated and ETV-treated patients (P=0.61); it was higher in the clinical-ascites group than the no-ascites (P=0.054) and subclinical-ascites (P=0.03) groups, but it was comparable between the latter 2 (P=0.225). Forty-five patients (9%) died during follow-up. Survival was significantly shorter in the clinical-ascites group than the other 2 (both P<0.005), but it was comparable between no-ascites and subclinical-ascites groups (P=0.444). Multivariate analysis showed that mortality was significantly associated with prothrombin time [hazard ratio (HR)=2.42; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.59-3.70], serum albumin (HR=0.54; 95% CI, 0.29-0.99), and presence of clinical ascites (HR=3.58; 95% CI, 1.54-8.30). Subclinical ascites did not affect prognosis in patients with hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis receiving antiviral treatment.

A predictive model for carcinogenesis in patients with chronic hepatitis B undergoing entecavir therapy and its validation.

We created a model to predict the development of liver carcinogenesis in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) undergoing entecavir (ETV) therapy and to validate the accuracy using an independent dataset.A total of 328 CHB subjects were analyzed. Subjects were randomly assigned into 2 groups: the training group (n = 164) and the validation group (n = 164). Using data from the training group, we built a predictive model for liver carcinogenesis by performing univariate and multivariate analyses using variables associated with liver carcinogenesis. We subsequently assessed the applicability of the constructed model in the validation group.The median (range) follow-up periods in the training and the validation groups were 5.03 years (1.03–9.98) and 4.84 years (1.10–9.97), respectively. The proportion of hepatitis B virus-DNA at 24 weeks <1.9 log IU/mL in the training group was 70.7% (116/164), while that in the validation group was 71.3% (117/164). For the entire cohort (n = 328), the median alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) value at 24 weeks (3.45 ng/mL; range, 0.9–102.7 ng/mL) significantly decreased compared to the baseline values (5.55 ng/mL; range, 0.9–1039.5 ng/mL), while the median alanine aminotransferase (ALT) value at 24 weeks (24 IU/mL; range, 6–251 IU/mL) also significantly decreased compared to baseline values (57 IU/mL; range, 7–1450 IU/mL). During the observation period, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) developed in 15 (9.1%) patients in the training group and in 17 (10.4%) patients in the validation group. The 3- and 5-year cumulative HCC incidence rates in the entire cohort were 4.48% and 9.52%, respectively. In the multivariate analysis of the training group, age ≥54 years (P = 0.0273), ALT level at 24 weeks (P = 0.0456), and AFP at 24 weeks (P = 0.0485) were found to be significant predictors linked to HCC. Using these independent predictors, the risk for HCC development was well stratified in the validation group (overall significance, P < 0.0001). Similar results were observed in subgroup analyses of patients with or without cirrhosis and HBe antigen positivity.In conclusion, our predictive model was well verified; hence, it may be a promising model for the prediction of the development of liver carcinogenesis in CHB patients undergoing ETV therapy.

Aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index and sustained virologic response are associated with progression from hepatitis C associated liver cirrhosis to hepatocellular carcinoma after treatment with pegylated interferon plus ribavirin.

BackgroundThe aim of this study was to evaluate the clinically significant predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development among hepatitis C virus (HCV) cirrhotic patients receiving combination therapy.Patients and methodsOne hundred and five compensated cirrhosis patients who received pegylated interferon plus ribavirin between January 2005 and December 2011 were enrolled. All the patients were examined with abdominal sonography and liver biochemistry at baseline, end of treatment, and every 3–6 months posttreatment. The occurrence of HCC was evaluated every 3–6 months posttreatment.ResultsA total of 105 patients were enrolled (mean age 58.3±10.4 years). The average follow-up time for each patient was 4.38 years (standard deviation 1.73 years; range 1.13–9.27 years). Fifteen (14.3%) patients developed HCC during follow-up period. Thirteen of them had high baseline aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) (ie, an APRI >2.0). Multivariate analysis showed that those without sustained virologic response (SVR) (hazard ratio [HR] 5.795; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.370–24.5; P=0.017) and high APRI (HR 5.548; 95% CI 1.191–25.86; P=0.029) had a significantly higher risk of HCC occurrence. The cumulative incidence of HCC was significantly higher (P=0.009) in patients without SVR (3-year cumulative incidence 21.4%; 95% CI 7.4%–35.5%; 5-year cumulative incidence 31.1%; 95% CI 11.2%–51.1%) compared to those with SVR (3- and 5-year cumulative incidence 6.2%; 95% CI 0%–1.3%). Further, the cumulative incidence of HCC was significantly higher (P=0.006) in patients with high APRI (3-year cumulative incidence 21.8%; 95% CI 8.2%–35.3%; 5-year cumulative incidence 30.5%, 95% CI 11.8%–49.3%) compared to those with low APRI (3- and 5-year cumulative incidence 4.2%, 95% CI 0%–1.0%).ConclusionIn HCV-infected cirrhotic patients who received combination therapy, APRI and SVR are the two major predictors of HCC development.

Impact of aldo-keto reductase family 1 member B10 on the risk of hepatitis C virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma.

Aldo-keto reductase family 1 member B10 (AKR1B10), a cancer-related oxidoreductase, was recently reported to be upregulated in some chronic liver diseases. However, its relevance in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development is not fully assessed, especially in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Aldo-keto reductase family 1 member B10 expression in the liver of 550 patients with chronic HCV infection was immunohistochemically assessed and quantified. A multivariate Cox model was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) of AKR1B10 expression for HCC development, and the cumulative incidence of HCC was evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Aldo-keto reductase family 1 member B10 expression in the patients ranged from 0% to 80%. During the median follow-up of 3.2 years, 43 of 550 patients developed HCC. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that high AKR1B10 expression (≥6%) was an independent risk factor for HCC (HR, 6.43; 95% confidence interval, 2.90-14.25; P < 0.001). The 5-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 22.8% and 2.2% in patients with high and low AKR1B10 expression, respectively (P < 0.001). In subgroup analyses, the effects of high AKR1B10 expression on HCC development risk were significant over strata. In particular, HRs attributed to high AKR1B10 expression were significant in the subgroups that had been considered at a lower risk of HCC, such as in patients with younger age and mild hepatic fibrosis or those who achieved sustained virological response after interferon therapy. Various degrees of AKR1B10 upregulation in the liver were observed in patients with chronic HCV infection, and high AKR1B10 expression could be a novel predictor of HCC.

Predictors of Increased Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes.

Epidemiological data indicate that type 2 diabetes is associated with increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, risk stratification for HCC has not been fully elucidated in diabetic population. The aim of this study was to identify potential predictors of HCC in diabetic patients without chronic viral hepatitis. A cohort of 3,544 diabetic patients without chronic viral hepatitis or alcoholic cirrhosis was established and subjects were randomly allocated into a derivation and a validation set. A scoring system was developed by using potential predictors of increased risk of HCC from the Cox proportional hazards model. The performance of the scoring system was tested for validation by using receiver operating characteristics analysis. During median follow-up of 55 months, 36 cases of HCC developed (190 per 100,000 person-years). The 5- and 10-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 1.0%, and 2.2%, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that age > 65 years, low triglyceride levels and high gamma-glutamyl transferase levels were independently associated with an increased risk of HCC. DM-HCC risk score, a weighted sum of scores from these 3 parameters, predicted 10-year development of HCC with area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.86, and discriminated different risk categories for HCC in the derivation and validation cohort. In conclusion, old age, low triglyceride level and high gamma-glutamyl transferase level may help to identify individuals at high risk of developing HCC in diabetic patients without chronic viral hepatitis or alcoholic cirrhosis.

Liver stiffness-based score in hepatoma risk assessment for chronic hepatitis C patients after successful antiviral therapy.

Patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) after successful antiviral therapy remain at risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study was to determine whether liver stiffness measurement (LSM) was useful in HCC risk assessment and to develop a risk-score system for clinical use. This retrospective study enrolled patients with CHC achieving sustained virological response (SVR) after interferon-based therapy with LSM at/after SVR determination. The demographics, clinical characteristics and HCC development were obtained from medical chart reviews. The diagnosis of HCC was based on recommended criteria. A total of 376 (M/F: 185/191, mean age: 54.1 years) patients, including 278 with pretreatment liver biopsy specimens, with a median follow-up period of 7.6 years were enrolled. Twenty-one patients developed HCC. The 5- and 10-year cumulative HCC incidences were 1.4% and 7.8%, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis, diabetes and LSM were associated with HCC developments with odds ratio (OR) of 12.38, 2.80 and 1.01, respectively. For LSM in HCC prediction, the performance and cut-off were 0.783 and 12 kilopascal (kPa), respectively. For 278 patients with pretreatment biopsy, a risk-score system (score 0-4) combining advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis, diabetes and LSM >12 kPa was developed. With the low-risk group as a reference, patients in intermediate- (OR: 12.57) and high-risk (OR: 197.33) groups carried higher risk of HCC development. For patients with CHC achieving SVR, liver stiffness value at/after SVR determination was associated with HCC development independently. Patients with pretreatment advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis, diabetes and LSM >12 kPa after SVR were at high risk of HCC development.

Evaluating the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with prominently elevated liver stiffness measurements by FibroScan: a multicentre study

Background and aimsThere are limited data on the significance of liver stiffness measurements (LSM) by transient elastography in the upper extreme end of the measurable spectrum. This multicentre retrospective observational study evaluated the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with LSM ≥20 kPa. Methods432 cirrhosis patients with LSM ≥20 kPa between June 2007 and October 2015 were retrospectively followed-up through electronic records. ResultsA minimum 1-year follow-up was available for 278 patients (177 men; average age 57, range 18–84). LSM ranged from 20.0 to 75.0 kPa (mean 34.6 kPa). Cumulative incidences of HCC were 19 (6.8%), 30 (10.8%) and 41 (14.7%) at 1, 2 and 3 years, respectively. HCC was associated with age (p = 0.003), higher LSM (p = 0.005) and viral aetiology (p = 0.007). Patients were divided into 4 groups based on LSM at entry: 20–25 kPa (n = 74); 25–30 kPa (n = 62); 30–40 kPa (n = 75); >40 kPa (n = 67). Compared to the 20–25 kPa group, the 30–40 kPa group had a hazard ratio (HR) of 3.0 (95% CI, 1.1–8.3; p = 0.037), and the >40 kPa group had a HR of 4.8 (95% CI, 1.7–13.4; p = 0.003). ConclusionsThis study shows an association between LSM at the upper extreme and HCC risk. Physicians may find this beneficial as a non-invasive dynamic approach to assessing HCC risk in cirrhosis patients.

Aldo-keto reductase family 1 member B10 is associated with hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma risk.

Recent reports have indicated that aldo-keto reductase family 1 member B10 (AKR1B10), a cancer-related oxidoreductase, was upregulated in some chronic liver diseases. However, few studies have reported AKR1B10 expression in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV)-infected patients. The aim of the present study was to analyze AKR1B10 expression and its relevance on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with chronic HBV infection. Expression of AKR1B10 in the liver of 119 chronic HBV-infected patients was assessed and quantified immunohistochemically. A multivariate Cox model was used to estimate the hazard ratios of AKR1B10 expression for HCC development. The cumulative incidences of HCC were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Expression of AKR1B10 in the study cohort ranged from 0% to 84%. During the median follow-up time (6.2years), 13 patients developed HCC. Multivariate analysis revealed that high AKR1B10 expression (≥15%) was an independent risk factor for HCC (hazard ratio, 10.8; 95% confidence interval, 3.0-38.6; P <0.001). The 5-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 20.6% and 2.6% in patients with high and low AKR1B10 expression, respectively (P <0.001). Patients with high AKR1B10 expression had significantly higher alanine aminotransferase levels during follow-up than those with low expression, even though antiviral treatment decreased HBV-DNA levels in both groups. Chronic HBV-infected patients with high hepatic AKR1B10 expression had an increased risk of HCC development. This suggests that AKR1B10 upregulation might play a role in the early stages of HBV-related hepatocarcinogenesis.

Elastin Fiber Accumulation in Liver Correlates with the Development of Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Background & AimsThe fibrosis stage, which is evaluated by the distribution pattern of collagen fibers, is a major predictor for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) for patients with hepatitis C. Meanwhile, the role of elastin fibers has not yet been elucidated. The present study was conducted to determine the significance of quantifying both collagen and elastin fibers.MethodsWe enrolled 189 consecutive patients with hepatitis C and advanced fibrosis. Using Elastica van Gieson-stained whole-slide images of pretreatment liver biopsies, collagen and elastin fibers were evaluated pixel by pixel (0.46 μm/pixel) using an automated computational method. Consequently, fiber amount and cumulative incidences of HCC within 3 years were analyzed.ResultsThere was a significant correlation between collagen and elastin fibers, whereas variation in elastin fiber was greater than in collagen fiber. Both collagen fiber (p = 0.008) and elastin fiber (p < 0.001) were significantly correlated with F stage. In total, 30 patients developed HCC during follow-up. Patients who have higher elastin fiber (p = 0.002) in addition to higher collagen fiber (p = 0.05) showed significantly higher incidences of HCC. With regard to elastin fiber, this difference remained significant in F3 patients. Furthermore, for patients with a higher collagen fiber amount, higher elastin was a significant predictor for HCC development (p = 0.02).ConclusionsComputational analysis is a novel technique for quantification of fibers with the added value of conventional staging. Elastin fiber is a predictor for the development of HCC independently of collagen fiber and F stage.