Cumulative Incidence Of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Research Articles

Risk of Liver Cirrhosis and Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Fontan Operation: A Need for Surveillance.

Liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are serious late complications that can occur after the Fontan procedure. This study aimed to investigate the cumulative incidence of cirrhosis and HCC and to identify specific features distinguishing HCC from benign arterial-phase hyperenhancing (APHE) nodules that developed after the Fontan operation. We retrospectively enrolled 313 post-Fontan patients who had been followed for more than 5 years and had undergone ultrasound or computed tomography (CT) of the liver between January 2000 and August 2018. Cirrhosis was diagnosed radiologically. The estimated cumulative incidence rates of cirrhosis at 5, 10, 20, and 30 years after the Fontan operation were 1.3%, 9.2%, 56.6%, and 97.9%, respectively. Multiphasic CT revealed that 18 patients had APHE nodules that were ≥1 cm in size and showed washout in the portal venous phase (PVP)/delayed phase, which met current noninvasive HCC diagnosis criteria. Among them, only seven patients (38.9%, 7/18) were diagnosed with HCC. After cirrhosis developed, the annual incidence of HCC was 1.04%. The appearance of washout in the PVP (p = 0.006), long time elapsed since the initial Fontan operation (p = 0.04), large nodule size (p = 0.03), and elevated serum α-fetoprotein (AFP) level (p < 0.001) were significantly associated with HCC. In conclusion, cirrhosis is a frequent late complication after Fontan operation, especially after 10 years, and HCC is not a rare complication after cirrhosis development. Diagnosis of HCC should not be based solely on the current imaging criteria, and washout on PVP and clinical features might be helpful to differentiate HCC nodules from benign APHE nodules.

Favorable outcomes of surgical resection for extrahepatic recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma

Repeat resection for intrahepatic recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is effective for the long-term survival of patients; however, little is known about the surgical outcomes of extrahepatic nodules. The aim of this study is to investigate whether resection can contribute to the survival of patients with extrahepatic recurrent HCC. Under the conditions that intrahepatic recurrent HCC was absent or controlled by locoregional therapies, patients who had resectable extrahepatic recurrent HCC in the lymph nodes, adrenal gland, peritoneum, lung, or brain were included in this study. The survival of patients who did (Surgical group) and did not (Non-surgical group, underwent other therapies) undergo resection for extrahepatic recurrent HCC was compared. Thirty-eight and 26 patients were included in the Surgical and Non-surgical groups, respectively. No patient had severe postoperative complications. After a median follow-up of 1.2 (range, 0.2-8.8) years, the median cumulative incidence of extrahepatic recurrent HCC was 1.2years (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.4-3.5) in the Surgical group. The median overall survival was 5.3 (95% CI, 2.5-8.8) and 1.1 (0.8-2.3) years in the Surgical and Non-surgical groups, respectively (P< 0.001). The 5-year rates of survival were 60.5% and 9.1% in the Surgical and Non-surgical groups, respectively. Surgical resection, α-fetoprotein, disease-free interval, and metastasis at the adrenal gland were the independent factors for overall survival. Due to the favorable surgical outcomes, resection should be considered as one of the therapeutic choices for patients with extrahepatic recurrent HCC if intrahepatic recurrent HCC can be controlled by locoregional therapies.

Serum hepatitis B core-related antigen predicts hepatocellular carcinoma in hepatitis B e antigen-negative patients.

Hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) is a novel serum viral marker. Recent studies showed that its level correlates with the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We aimed to evaluate the accuracy of serum HBsAg and HBcrAg levels at baseline to predict HCC. 1400 CHB patients who received nucleos(t)ide analogues (NA) treatment since December 2005 were included. Their stored serum samples at baseline were retrieved to measure HBsAg and HBcrAg levels. The primary endpoint was the cumulative incidence of HCC. 85 (6.1%) patients developed HCC during a mean (± SD) follow-up duration of 45 ± 20months. Serum HBcrAg level above 2.9 log10 U/mL at baseline was an independent factor for HCC in hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative patients by multivariable analysis (adjusted hazard ratio 2.13, 95% CI 1.10-4.14, P = 0.025). HBcrAg above 2.9 log10 U/mL stratified the risk of HCC in HBeAg-negative patients with high PAGE-B score (P = 0.024 by Kaplan-Meier analysis), and possibly in cirrhotic patients (P = 0.08). Serum HBsAg level did not show any correlation with the risk of HCC in all patients or any subgroups. Serum HBcrAg level predicts the risk of HCC accurately in NA-treated HBeAg-negative CHB patients.

Similar risk of hepatocellular carcinoma during long-term entecavir or tenofovir therapy in Caucasian patients with chronic hepatitis B

A recent study in Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) reported that the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was lower in patients treated with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) than entecavir (ETV), but this finding remains controversial. We aimed to identify any differences in HCC incidence, or other patient outcomes, between patients receiving TDF or ETV in the well monitored, multicenter European PAGE-B cohort. We included 1,935 Caucasians with CHB, with or without compensated cirrhosis, treated with ETV (n= 772) or TDF (n= 1,163) monotherapy. Mean follow-up was 7.1 ± 3.0 years from ETV/TDF onset. The 5-year cumulative HCC incidence was 5.4% in ETV- and 6.0% in TDF-treated patients (log-rank, p= 0.321), with no significant difference in any patient subgroup (with or without cirrhosis, naïve or experienced to oral antiviral(s) [total, with or without cirrhosis]). In multivariable Cox regression analyses, the hazard of HCC was similar between ETV- and TDF-treated patients after adjustment for several HCC risk factors. ETV- and TDF-treated patients had similar rates of on-therapy biochemical and virological remission, HBsAg loss, liver transplantation and/or death. Elastographic reversion of cirrhosis at year 5 (liver stiffness <12 kPa) was observed in 245/347 (70.6%) patients with pretreatment cirrhosis, being more frequent in TDF- than ETV- treated patients (73.8% vs. 61.5%, p= 0.038). In Caucasian patients with CHB, with or without cirrhosis, long-term ETV or TDF monotherapy is associated with similar HCC risk, rates of biochemical/virological remission, HBsAg loss and liver transplantation or death, but elastographic reversion of cirrhosis at year 5 was more frequent with TDF. In a large cohort of Caucasians with chronic hepatitis B treated with entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) monotherapy, cumulative rates of hepatocellular carcinoma did not differ (up to 12 years). Nor did rates of biochemical/virological remission, HBsAg loss and liver transplantation or death. However, elastographic reversion of cirrhosis at year 5 was more frequent in TDF- than ETV-treated patients with pretreatment cirrhosis.

Elevated testosterone increases risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in men with chronic hepatitis B and diabetes mellitus.

Male sex is a risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Diabetes mellitus (DM) is associated with a doubled risk of HCC in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We examined the relationship between serum total testosterone and HCC risk in male CHB patients with DM. We performed a retrospective cohort study of male CHB patients with DM between 2000 and 2017 using a territory-wide electronic health-care database in Hong Kong. DM was defined by use of anti-diabetic medications, hemoglobin A1c ≥6.5%, and/or fasting glucose≥7mmol/L in two measurements or ≥11.1mmol/L in one measurement. Of 928 male CHB patients with DM, 83 (8.9%) developed HCC at a median (interquartile range) of 10.7 (6.1-14.6) years. Higher testosterone was associated with an elevated risk of HCC (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] per 1 SD increase 1.23, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.46, P=0.024). The upper tertile of testosterone (aHR 1.86, 95% CI 1.02-3.39, P=0.043), but not middle tertile (aHR 0.84, 95% CI 0.41-1.69 P=0.620), was associated with a higher risk of HCC than the lower tertile. The cumulative incidence (95% CI) of HCC at 5, 10, and 15years was 4.4% (2.5-7.2%), 12.4% (8.7-16.7%), and 19.1% (14.2-24.5%), respectively, in patients in the upper tertile of testosterone. By subgroup analysis, the association between testosterone and HCC was stronger in patients aged≥50years and those not receiving antiviral therapy. Higher serum testosterone is associated with a higher incidence of HCC in male CHB patients with DM.

Magnitude of and prediction for risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B taking entecavir or tenofovir therapy: A systematic review.

Entecavir (ETV) and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) have been shown to reduce incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This systematic review aims to evaluate the magnitude, change over time, and prediction of residual HCC risks in CHB patients treated with ETV/TDF therapy. Available literature was systematically reviewed through searches of PubMed and EMBASE databases from January 1, 2006 to September 1, 2019, to identify cohort studies that reported HCC incidence in CHB patients during ETV/TDF therapy. Studies were screened by title and abstract and then evaluated for eligibility in terms of full text. We identified 141 studies for full-text review, and 34 were eligible for analysis. From 19 studies with data separated by cirrhosis status, the 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 0.5-6.9% in patients without cirrhosis, 4.5-21.6% in compensated cirrhosis, and 36.3-46.5% in decompensated cirrhosis. All four studies that addressed temporal changes in HCC risks consistently found the incidence rate decreased over time in patients with cirrhosis, although the findings were inconsistent in patients without cirrhosis. Six predictive scores were developed and validated to predict incident HCC during ETV/TDF therapy in CHB patients. Common scoring variables included age, sex, cirrhosis (fibrosis grade), and hepatic function. Conflicting results were reported in seven individual studies and two meta-analyses that compared ETV versus TDF. The residual risk of HCC remains during ETV/TDF treatment in CHB patients with cirrhosis but declines over time. Risk stratification is attainable by validated predictive scores.

Sex difference in the development of hepatocellular carcinoma after direct-acting antiviral therapy in patients with HCV infection.

Sex differences in the predictors for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development after direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy was investigated. DAA therapy was given to 1438 (663 male, 775 female) patients. Sex differences in the HCC development rate and the factors contributing to HCC development after DAA therapy were investigated. Male patients had a significantly higher cumulative HCC incidence (log-rank test, P = .007). On multivariate analysis, the fibrosis-4 index (HR = 1.11; 95%CI, 1.042-1.202, P = .002) and posttreatment α-fetoprotein (AFP) (HR = 1.11; 95%CI, 1.046-1.197, P = .001) were found to be independent factors that contributed to HCC development following DAA therapy in female patients, whereas only posttreatment AFP (HR = 1.090; 95%CI, 1.024-1.160, P = .007) was an independent factor in male patients. The optimal posttreatment AFP cut-off values were set based on receiver operating characteristic curve analyses. The optimal posttreatment AFP cut-off value was much higher in females (6.0 ng/mL) than in male (3.5 ng/mL) patients. In conclusion both in male and female patients, posttreatment AFP was an independent predictor of HCC development after DAA therapy. However, the cut-off values differed between the sexes. In male patients, HCC could be seen in patients with relatively low posttreatment AFP levels; more careful observation might be needed in such patients.

Association of Daily Aspirin Therapy With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis C Virus Infection

Aspirin therapy has been associated with reduced risk of colon cancer, but there is only limited evidence for its effects on risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aimed to investigate the association of daily aspirin therapy with HCV-related HCC risk. In this cohort study, based on Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database, we screened 237,963 patients with chronic HCV infection for the period of 1997 through 2011. We excluded patients with confounding conditions and 2478 patients who continuously received daily aspirin therapy for 90 days or more (treated group) were randomly matched 1:2 with 4956 patients who had never received antiplatelet therapy (untreated group) by means of propensity scores. Cumulative incidence of, and hazard ratio (HR) for, HCC development were analyzed after we adjusted for patient mortality as a competing risk event. The cumulative incidence of HCC in the treated group was significantly lower than that in the untreated group over 5 years (4.67%; 95% CI, 3.74%-5.59% vs 7.32%; 95% CI, 6.33%-8.30%; P<.001). In the multivariable regression analysis, aspirin therapy was independently associated with a reduced HCC risk (HR, 0.78, 95% CI, 0.64-0.95; P = .011), after adjustment for age per year, male sex, cirrhosis, liver decompensation, hyperlipidemia, statin use, and interferon therapy. Sensitivity subgroup analyses also verified this association (all HRs<1.0). In addition, older age (HR, 1.03 per year; 95% CI, 1.02-1.04), male sex (HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.21-1.77), and cirrhosis (HR, 3.13; 95% CI, 2.55-3.84) were independently associated with an increased HCC risk. In a nationwide cohort study in Taiwan, we found aspirin therapy to be significantly associated with a reduced risk of HCV-related HCC.

Incidence and predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma beyond year 5 of entecavir therapy in chronic hepatitis B patients.

PURPOSE: The study compared the incidence and predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) within and beyond year 5 of entecavir (ETV) therapy. The study enrolled 1397 CHB patients who were naïve to nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) treatment and had received ETV monotherapy for more than 12months. The cumulative incidences of HCC at 3, 5, and 10years of ETV treatment were 4%, 9.1%, and 15.8%, respectively. In the entire cohort, the annual incidence rates of HCC were 2.28% within the first 5years and 1.34% within 5-10years of therapy. The incidences of HCC did not differ significantly within and beyond 5years of ETV therapy (p = 0.53), including patients with cirrhosis (p = 0.85) and without cirrhosis (p = 0.47). At year 5 of treatment, the multivariate analysis showed that the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels were independent risk factors for HCC development beyond year 5. The 10-year cumulative incidences of HCC beyond year 5 in the high-risk group (FIB-4 > 2.20 and AFP > 3.21ng/mL) and low-risk group (FIB-4 ≤ 2.20 and AFP ≤ 3.21ng/mL) were 48.7% and 0%, respectively. APA-B score at 12months and year 5 had a higher C-index for the prediction of HCC beyond year 5 than the PAGE-B at baseline and year 5 (p = 0.003 and p = 0.039, respectively) CONCLUSIONS: The HCC incidence tended to decrease but did not change significantly within and beyond 5years of ETV therapy. The FIB-4 index and AFP levels at year 5 were predictive of HCC development beyond year 5 of ETV therapy.

Improved detection of hepatocellular carcinoma by dynamic computed tomography in cirrhotic patients with chronic hepatitis B: A multicenter study.

Current guidelines for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients are to undergo surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with 6-monthly ultrasonography (US). However, sensitivities of US to detect early-stage HCC in cirrhotic patients are suboptimal. We aimed to compare overall survival and detection rates of very-early-stage HCC in two groups: group A, undergoing 6-monthly US versus group B, undergoing 6-monthly US alternating with dynamic computed tomography (CT). This retrospective multicenter study assessed 1235 cirrhotic patients with CHB under entecavir/tenofovir therapy from 2007 to 2016. The primary endpoint was overall survival rates between the two groups. The Cox proportional hazards model and propensity score matching analyses were used to assess the effect of surveillance modalities on overall survival and detection of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage 0 HCC after balancing. During a median follow-up of 4.5years, 10-year cumulative HCC incidence rates of 16.3% were significantly higher in group B (n=576) than 13.7% in group A (n=659; P<0.001). However, in patients with HCC, 10-year overall survival rates of 85.1% were significantly higher in group B than 65.6% in group A (P=0.001 by log-rank test). CT exam alternating with US was independently associated with reduced overall mortality (hazard ratio 0.47, P=0.02). Cumulative incidence of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage 0 HCC was significantly higher in group B than in group A (hazard ratio 2.82, P<0.001). In cirrhotic patients with CHB, dynamic CT exam alternating with US led to higher detection rates of very-early-stage HCC and benefit of overall survival than did US exams.

Cumulative incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma and hepatitis B surface antigen Seroclearance after Nucleos(t) ide analogue-induced hepatitis B e antigen Seroclearance

BackgroundHepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) seroclearance has been considered as the treatment endpoint in HBeAg-positive patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Although HBeAg seroclearance has been accomplished, some aspects are yet unclear. We investigated the cumulative incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and evaluated hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance in patients undergoing nucleos(t) ide analogue (NA)-induced HBeAg seroclearance.MethodsIn this retrospective cohort study, 203 patients with CHB were HBsAg and HBeAg seropositive before NA (entecavir or tenofovir) treatment. All patient who experienced NA -induced HBeAg seroclearance were recruited. Patients with documented HBeAg seroclearance were followed-up every 6 months. Baseline characteristics and laboratory results were recorded.ResultsThe mean age at HBeAg seroclearance was 40 years (range, 20–84), and the mean follow-up duration was 5 years (range, 2–11). The cumulative incidence of HCC was 1.5 to 11.5% at 1 to 8 years after HBeAg seroclearance. Cirrhosis was the only significant factor for HCC development (hazard ratio [HR], 24.651; confidence interval [CI], 3.018 to 201.365; P = 0.003). The cumulative incidence of HBsAg seroclearance was 3.5 to 18.7% after 1 to 8 years from HBeAg seroclearance.ConclusionsA significant proportion of patients developed HCC after NA-induced HBeAg seroclearance. The presence of liver cirrhosis at the time of HBeAg seroclearance serves as an independent factor for HCC development. Some patients with NA-induced HBeAg seroclearance achieved HBsAg seroclearance.

From the Editor’s Desk…

From the Editor’s Desk…

Propranolol Is Associated with Lower Risk of Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Alcoholic Cirrhosis: A Tertiary-Center Study and Indirect Comparison with Meta-Analysis.

Alcoholic cirrhosis (AC) leads to enormous disease burden and occupies a substantial proportion in the etiology of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but scarce attention has been paid to this topic. Besides, propranolol has been reported to decrease the rate of HCC in viral hepatitis. We conducted a retrospective tertiary-center cohort study to identify the HCC incidence in AC patients with or without propranolol. A total of 1,046 AC patients with hospitalization had been screened, and those with regular follow-up for three years or otherwise until the date of malignancy diagnosis without meeting exclusion criteria were enrolled; finally, 23 AC patients with propranolol and 46 AC patients without propranolol were analyzed after twofold propensity-score matching. The cumulative incidence of HCC was lower in the propranolol group (log-rank test, P = 0.046). Furthermore, we undertook the meta-analysis of annual incidence of HCC in AC patients, and 1,949 publications were screened, within which eight studies were analyzed; the pooled annual incidence was 2.41%, which was higher than the calculated annual incidence of HCC in our AC cohort with propranolol (1.45%). In conclusion, propranolol is associated with decreased risk of HCC incidence in patients with AC.

On-treatment Serum Mac-2 Binding Protein Glycosylation Isomer (M2BPGi) Level and Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B during Nucleot(s)ide Analogue Therapy.

We aimed to analyze the serum level of a novel fibrosis marker, Mac-2-binding protein glycosylation isomer (M2BPGi), and its predictive value for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) under nucleot(s)ide analogue (NA) therapy. Serum M2BPGi levels were quantified in 147 CHB patients at baseline, 48 weeks after starting NA therapy, and at the patients’ last visit. The serum M2BPGi level serially decreased at each time point. During the median follow-up time of 6.6 years, 14 of 147 patients developed HCC. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis demonstrated that high serum M2BPGi at 48 weeks was an independent risk factor for HCC development. A cutoff value of M2BPGi at 48 weeks > 1.5 showed an adjusted hazard ratio = 34.9 (95% confidence interval, 4.3–284.9). The 3- and 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC in patients with low M2BPGi were 0.9% and 4.2%, respectively, whereas those in patients with high M2BPGi were 10.1% and 25.6%, respectively (p < 0.001). In conclusion, Serum M2BPGi level at 48 weeks is a useful predictor for HCC development in patients with CHB who receive NA therapy.

Association of Aspirin with Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Liver-Related Mortality

BackgroundMore information is needed about the long-term effects of low-dose aspirin (≤160 mg) on incident hepatocellular carcinoma, liver-related mortality, and gastrointestinal bleeding in persons with chronic hepatitis B or hepatitis C virus infection.MethodsUsing nationwide Swedish registries, we identified all adults who received a diagnosis of chronic hepatitis B or hepatitis C from 2005 through 2015 and who did not have a history of aspirin use (50,275 patients). Patients who were starting to take low-dose aspirin (14,205 patients) were identified by their first filled prescriptions for 90 or more consecutive doses of aspirin. We constructed a propensity score and applied inverse probability of treatment weighting to balance baseline characteristics between groups. Using Cox proportional-hazards regression modeling, we estimated the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and liver-related mortality, accounting for competing events.ResultsWith a median of 7.9 years of follow-up, the estimated cumulative incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma was 4.0% among aspirin users and 8.3% among nonusers of aspirin (difference, −4.3 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], −5.0 to −3.6; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.62 to 0.76). This inverse association appeared to be duration-dependent; as compared with short-term use (3 months to <1 year), the adjusted hazard ratios were 0.90 (95% CI, 0.76 to 1.06) for 1 to less than 3 years of use, 0.66 (95% CI, 0.56 to 0.78) for 3 to less than 5 years of use, and 0.57 (95% CI, 0.42 to 0.70) for 5 or more years of use. Ten-year liver-related mortality was 11.0% among aspirin users and 17.9% among nonusers (difference, −6.9 percentage points [95% CI, −8.1 to −5.7]; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.73 [95% CI, 0.67 to 0.81]). However, the 10-year risk of gastrointestinal bleeding did not differ significantly between users and nonusers of aspirin (7.8% and 6.9%, respectively; difference, 0.9 percentage points; 95% CI, −0.6 to 2.4).ConclusionsIn a nationwide study of patients with chronic viral hepatitis in Sweden, use of low-dose aspirin was associated with a significantly lower risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and lower liver-related mortality than no use of aspirin, without a significantly higher risk of gastrointestinal bleeding. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others.)

Predictors for the progression of hepatic cirrhosis to hepatocellular carcinoma under long-term antiviral therapy.

Patients diagnosed with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatic cirrhosis have the potential for progression to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) even while undergoing long-term nucleos(t)ide analog (NA) therapy. This study investigated the predictors for the progression of hepatic cirrhosis to HCC under long-term NA therapy. This retrospective study enrolled 898 patients diagnosed with HBV-related hepatic cirrhosis. They received NA therapy between January 2012 and January 2015. The values for the liver stiffness measurement (LSM), laboratory tests, and disease history were collected. The diagnostic specificity of the serum, was assessed with a receiver operating characteristic curve. The overall 2- and 3-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 6.8% and 15.15%, respectively. The LSM values were higher in the patients who had progressed to HCC. The serum PIVKA-II levels were more efficient than the serum AFP levels for the diagnosis of early HCC as the larger area under curve (0.866 vs. 0.687). The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that HCC occurrence was significantly associated with the baseline LSM value (odds ratio = 1.035). At the end of the study, the death rate for the patients with larger LSM values was higher than that for those with lower LSM values (67.88% vs. 39.90%). Patients with HBV-related cirrhosis have the potential for progression to HCC even under long-term NA therapy. The LSM value and the serum PIVKA-II level are significant predictors of HCC occurrence.

External validation of the Toronto hepatocellular carcinoma risk index in Turkish cirrhotic patients.

Toronto hepatocellular carcinoma risk index is developed to stratify cirrhotic patients according to 10-year hepatocellular carcinoma risk. We aimed to validate the performance of Toronto hepatocellular carcinoma risk index in a large Turkish cohort. We retrospectively reviewed the database of 1287 cirrhotic patients followed-up in a 10-year period (February 2008 to January 2018). All patients were stratified into three groups based on the Toronto hepatocellular carcinoma risk index score as follows: low-risk, < 120; intermediate risk, 120 to 240; and high risk, > 240. Area under the curve and optimal cutoff value of Toronto hepatocellular carcinoma risk index were obtained from receiver operator curve. To reveal the parameters related with hepatocellular carcinoma development, logistic regression analysis was conducted. The cumulative incidences of hepatocellular carcinoma were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and the curves were compared using the log-rank test. Out of 403 enrolled patients, 57 developed hepatocellular carcinoma. The median Toronto hepatocellular carcinoma risk index value was higher in hepatocellular carcinoma (+) group comparing to hepatocellular carcinoma (-) group [267 (70-366) vs. 224 (36-366), P < 0.001]. Out of 57 detected hepatocellular carcinomas, 45 (78.9%) were high risk, 11 (19.3%) were intermediate risk, and only one (1.8%) was low risk at the entry. The area under the curve of the Toronto hepatocellular carcinoma risk index to predict hepatocellular carcinoma was 0.750 (95% confidence interval, 0.683-0.817, P < 0.001). The optimal cutoff value of Toronto hepatocellular carcinoma risk index was 239.5, giving a sensitivity of 78.9% and specificity of 62.7%. As a result, Toronto hepatocellular carcinoma risk index remained to be the only significant parameter that has an affect on hepatocellular carcinoma development [adjusted-odds ratio: 1.016 (95% confidence interval, 1.007-1.024), P<0.001]. The present study validated the performance of Toronto hepatocellular carcinoma risk index in Turkish cirrhotic patients to predict hepatocellular carcinoma risk, which can be considered as a tool for personalized surveillance.

Predictive factors for risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in immune inactive chronic hepatitis B

The risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in immune inactive chronic hepatitis B (CHB) have not been clarified. The aim of this study was to investigate the predictive factors for HCC inimmune inactive CHB. A total of 337 patients in immune inactive CHB were consecutively enrolled in Kangdong Sacred Heart Hospital from 1995 to 2017. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the independent risk factors for HCC development. During the mean 63 months of follow-up, the incidence of HCC of study population was 4.5% (15/337). Patients who developed HCC were older, had more cirrhosis at baseline, and were more likely to experience ALT elevation>2 X upper limit of normal (ULN) during follow-up than those without HCC. In Cox regression analysis, increased ALT levels>2 X ULN during follow-up (hazard ratio [HR], 3.774; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.145-12.443; P=0.029] and presence of cirrhosis (HR, 11.768; 95% CI, 3.350-41.336; P<0.001) were identified as the independent factors for HCC in immune inactive CHB. With increasing number of risk factors, the respective cumulative incidence of HCC at 10 years was 6.3%, 8.8%, and 63.5%. Underlying cirrhosis and hepatic inflammation reflected by increased ALT levels>2 X ULN were significant predictors for HCC in immune inactive CHB. ALT elevation showed a synergistic effect in HCC development combined with cirrhosis. It suggests that patients with high serum ALT levels, especially those with cirrhosis, are required closer surveillance for HCC even in immune inactive CHB.

Diabetes is not associated with an increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with alcoholic or hepatitis C virus cirrhosis.

diabetes has been reported as a risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in population-based studies but there are controversial data in patients with cirrhosis. Metformin could have a protective role in HCC development. The aim of this study was to determine the influence of diabetes on the risk of developing HCC in patients with alcohol- and hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis. a cohort of 982 Caucasian patients were analyzed with alcoholic or HCV cirrhosis, included from 1992 to 2014 in a HCC surveillance program and prospectively followed. The influence of diabetes on the development of HCC was analyzed by Kaplan Meier analysis and adjusted with a Cox regression for relevant co-factors. after a median follow-up of 49.5 (24.0-96.0) months, 156 patients (15.8 %) developed HCC. There were no differences in the cumulative incidences of HCC after 20 years between diabetic and non-diabetic patients in the global (53.5 % vs 45.4 %; p = 0.26), alcoholic (50.4 % vs 45.4 %; p = 0.21) or HCV (60 % vs 43.1 %; p = 0.57) cirrhosis series. Diabetes did not constitute a risk factor after adjusting for other potential co-factors, neither in the whole series (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.12, 95 % CI: 0.78-1.51; p = 0.26), alcoholic (HR: 1.160, 95 % CI: 0.74-1.82; p = 0.50) or HCV cirrhosis cohort (HR: 1.17, 95 % CI: 0.63-2.19; p = 0.60). These figures did not change after excluding patients treated with metformin. in Caucasian patients with alcoholic or HCV cirrhosis, diabetes is not a risk factor for developing HCC. This lack of an association does not seem to be a consequence of the protective effect of metformin.

Adjuvant Fuzheng Huayu Capsule Reduces the Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Hepatitis B‐Caused Cirrhosis

Aim Fuzhenghuayu (FZHY) capsule can inhibit the progression of cirrhosis. This study explored whether FZHY can reduce the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with hepatitis B-caused cirrhosis (HBC) undergoing antiviral therapy. Methods A retrospective review of 842 patients with HBC between 2011 and 2015 was performed, including 270 treated with FZHY combined with nucleos (t) ide analogues (NAs) and 572 with NAs alone. The incidence of HCC was compared between the FZHY (n = 259) and control (n = 259) groups using 1 : 1 propensity score (PS) matching. The incidence of HCC in patients with HBC with different Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) classifications and Toronto HCC risk index (THRI) scores was analyzed using Kaplan–Meier curves. Results The 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC before and after PS matching was 151 (17.9%) and 86 (16.6%), respectively. In PS-matched samples, the multivariate Cox proportional-hazards model indicated that the FZHY group demonstrated a significantly lower risk for HCC than the control group (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 0.32, 95% CI 0.19–0.53 P < 0.001). The risk of HCC diminished with increased duration of FZHY use. The stratified analysis revealed that the FZHY group, regardless of CTP classification, benefited significantly from FZHY therapy. Patients in the medium- and high-THRI risk groups were the dominant population for FZHY. Conclusions FZHY combined with NAs was associated with a significantly lower risk of HCC than NAs alone in patients with HBC, which supports the integration of FZHY with antiviral treatment into clinical practice.