Cumulative Assessment Research Articles

Cumulative effects of natural and anthropogenic disturbances on the forest carbon balance in the oil sands region of Alberta, Canada; a pilot study (1985\u20132012)

BackgroundAssessing cumulative effects of anthropogenic and natural disturbances on forest carbon (C) stocks and fluxes, because of their relevance to climate change, is a requirement of environmental impact assessments (EIAs) in Canada. However, tools have not been developed specifically for these purposes, and in particular for the boreal forest of Canada, so current forest C assessments in EIAs take relatively simple approaches. Here, we demonstrate how an existing tool, the Generic Carbon Budget Model (GCBM), developed for national and international forest C reporting, was used for an assessment of the cumulative effects of anthropogenic and natural disturbances to support EIA requirements. We applied the GCBM to approximately 1.3 million ha of upland forest in a pilot study area of the oil sands region of Alberta that has experienced a large number of anthropogenic (forestry, energy sector) and natural (wildfire, insect) disturbances.ResultsOver the 28 years, 25% of the pilot study area was disturbed. Increasing disturbance emissions, combined with declining net primary productivity and reductions in forest area, changed the study area from a net C sink to a net C source. Forest C stocks changed from 332.2 Mt to 327.5 Mt, declining by 4.7 Mt at an average rate of 0.128 tC ha−1 yr−1. The largest cumulative areas of disturbance were caused by wildfire (139,000 ha), followed by the energy sector (110,000 ha), insects (33,000 ha) and harvesting (31,000 ha) but the largest cumulative disturbance emissions were caused by the energy sector (9.5 Mt C), followed by wildfire (5.5 Mt C), and then harvesting (1.3 Mt C).ConclusionAn existing forest C model was used successfully to provide a rigorous regional cumulative assessment of anthropogenic and natural disturbances on forest C, which meets requirements of EIAs in Canada. The assessment showed the relative importance of disturbances on C emissions in the pilot study area, but their relative importance is expected to change in other parts of the oil sands region because of its diversity in disturbance types, patterns and intensity. Future assessments should include peatland C stocks and fluxes, which could be addressed by using the Canadian Model for Peatlands.

Hair endocannabinoid concentrations in individuals with acute and weight-recovered anorexia nervosa

BackgroundThe endocannabinoid system has been suggested to modulate energy metabolism and stress response and could be an important factor in the pathophysiology of anorexia nervosa (AN). In the context of AN, excessive physical activity may influence endocannabinoid concentrations. The objective of this study was to investigate hair endocannabinoid concentrations at different stages of the disorder. Measurement in hair allows for a cumulative assessment of endocannabinoid concentrations independent of circadian rhythms. MethodsIn a combined cross-sectional and longitudinal design, we measured hair concentrations of the endocannabinoids anandamide and 2-arachidonoylglycerol and the endocannabinoid-related compounds palmitoylethanolamide, oleoylethanolamide, and stearoylethanolamide in female underweight patients with acute AN (n = 67, reassessment of n = 47 after short-term weight restoration with a body mass index increase of at least 14%), individuals long-term recovered from AN (n = 27), and healthy control participants (n = 84). ResultsHair concentrations of anandamide and all endocannabinoid-related compounds were elevated in acute AN and decreased over the course of short-term weight restoration. Anandamide concentrations remained elevated in long-term recovered AN patients. In long-term recovered patients, physical activity correlated positively with the concentrations of all endocannabinoid-related compounds. ConclusionThe current study provides evidence for a significant alteration of the endocannabinoid system in acute AN, which may partly persist into long-term recovery. The endocannabinoid system may be a possible target for pharmaceutical interventions in AN, which should be explored in further preclinical and subsequently clinical randomized controlled trials.

Evaluating the Ecological Benefits of Management Actions to Complement Environmental Flows in River Systems.

Globally, many river systems are under stress due to overconsumption of water. Governments have responded with programmes to deliver environmental water to improve environmental outcomes. Although such programmes are essential, they may not be sufficient to achieve all desired environmental outcomes. The benefits of environmental water allocation may be improved using 'complementary measures', which are non-flow-based actions, such as infrastructure works, vegetation management and pest control. The value of complementary measures is recognised globally, but their ecological benefits are rarely well understood, either because there is limited experience with their application, or the importance of context- and location-specific factors make it difficult to generalise benefits. In this study, we developed an approach to evaluate complementary measures at different levels of detail as a mechanism to aid decision-making. For systems that require a rapid, high-level evaluation, we propose a score-based multi-criteria benefit assessment module. If more ecological detail is necessary, we outline a method based on conceptual models, expert elicitation and probability assessment. These results are used to populate a cumulative benefit assessment tool. The tool evaluates the benefits of proposed measures in the wider context by including variables such as flow, dependence on ongoing maintenance and additional ecological values. We illustrate our approach through application to the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. As many water recovery programmes mature into their evaluation phases, there is an increasing need to evaluate the ecological benefits of including complementary measures in the toolkit available to policy makers.

Reliability Analysis and Cumulative Impact Assessment of Forest Ecosystem Services: A Case Study of Jilin Province, China

Forests are an important source of ecosystem services, and they are a common link between economic value and environmental protection. Thus, it is of great significance to study forest ecosystem services. In previous studies, scholars have focused on the evaluation results of a single service component, but they did not consider the credibility of the data, which consisted of the cumulative effects of multiple components on forest ecosystem services. The current study examined the forest management plan for Jilin Province and used forest resource inventory data from China. Reliability analysis and cumulative impact assessment were used to overcome the problem of cumulative changes and interactions between services in order to make the evaluation results more objective and reasonable. The results showed that the resulting two values from the evaluation of forest ecosystem services had no obvious cumulative effect, and the evaluation value for overall reliability was 0.774, which confirms that the results have a certain credibility. The results of this study considered the cumulative effect of forest ecosystem services on the value evaluation. The total value of the service was equal to the sum of each service value, which might be primarily related to the data format and sample size used in this study. The innovation of this research lies in the consideration of data reliability and the cumulative influence of the services on the value evaluation process, which makes up for the shortcomings of previous service value evaluation methods. However, the limitation of this study is that multiple reference groups and control groups were not set up to verify that the inconsistency in the evaluation results was indeed due to the data format and sample size. Future research will focus on comparative studies of data types and sample sizes. Furthermore, future research will identify important service mechanisms and discuss the establishment of a forest ecological benefit compensation system to fundamentally solve the problems of power and mechanism associated with forest management, especially with respect to public welfare forests, in order to achieve a positive impact on the development of sustainable forestry in China.

Assessment of cognitive and psychomotor domains regarding biomedical waste management and hand hygiene among various categories of health-care professionals at a tertiary care center in Northern India.

BACKGROUND:Health care-associated infections (HAIs) are associated with high morbidity, mortality, and costs in the health-care sector. Large proportions of HAIs are preventable by following infection prevention activities such as hand hygiene (HH) and biomedical waste management (BMWM).AIM:The aim was to evaluate the effectiveness of a structured teaching session on the cognitive and psychomotor domains of BMWM and HH practices in a tertiary health-care institute.MATERIALS AND METHODS:Every participant was evaluated for pretest knowledge assessment using a prestructured format along with skill demonstration. The training included interactive sessions, open discussion, and demonstration of various skills with the active participation of various participants by trained faculty and infection control nursing officers. On completion, every participant underwent posttest evaluation.RESULTS:During 11-month study period, 450 health-care professionals (HCPs) participated in the training program. Cognitive domain score increased from 16.3 ± 2.4 to 21.3 ± 2.0 from pre- to post-test, respectively. In psychomotor domain, pre- and post-test scores for HH were 8.3 ± 3.5 and 14.3 ± 1.4, for BMWM, the corresponding values were 8.6 ± 2.1 and 9.8 ± 0.7, respectively. Overall change in the mean (± standard deviation) score between pre- and post-test for various domains of assessment was 5.0 (±2.7), 6.0 (±3.5), 1.1 (±1.8), and 12.2 (±5.3) for knowledge, HH skill demonstration, BMW segregation skill, and cumulative assessment, respectively.CONCLUSION:The initiation of a structured training program can result in a significant increase in participants’ cognitive and psychomotor domains of learning, which may have an indirect impact on the prevention of HAIs.

Australian advances in vegetation classification and the need for a national, science-based approach

This editorial introduces the Australian Journal of Botany special issue ‘Vegetation science for decision-making’. Vegetation science and classification are crucial to understanding Australian landscapes. From the mulga shrublands of the arid interior to the monsoon rain forests of northern Australia, we have culturally and scientifically built upon the delineation of vegetation into recognisable and repeatable patterns. As remote sensing and database capacities increase, this improved capability to measure vegetation and share data also prompts collaboration and synthesis of complex, specialised datasets. Although the task faces significant challenges, the growing body of literature demonstrates a strong discipline. In Australia, purpose-driven products describe vegetation at broad scales (e.g. the National Vegetation Information System, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network). At fine scales however (i.e. that of the vegetation community), no uniform framework or agreed protocols exist. Climate and landform dictate vegetation patterns at broad scales, but microtopography, microclimate and biotic processes act as filters at finer scales. This is the scale where climate-change impacts are most likely to be detected and effected; this is the scale at which a deeper understanding of evolutionary ecology will be achieved, and it is the scale at which species need to be protected. A common language and system for understanding Australian communities and impetus for collecting data at this scale is needed. In the face of ongoing climate and development pressures and an increasingly complex set of tools to manage these threats (e.g. offset policies, cumulative impact assessments), a nationally collaborative approach is needed. It is our hope that this special issue will help to achieve this.

Exposure to multiple mycotoxins in domestic and imported rice commercially traded in Tehran and possible risk to public health.

Mycotoxins are secondary fungi metabolites that induce acute and chronic toxic effects in humans and animals. In the present study, nine mycotoxins including aflatoxins (AFB1, AFB2, AFG1 and AFG2), fumonisins (FB1 and FB2), Ochratoxin A (OTA), deoxynivalenol (DON), and zearalenone (ZEN) were determined in one hundred rice samples collected from Tehran using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with fluorescence or photodiode array detector. In addition, possible risk to public health was investigated by assessing dietary exposure through rice consumption, the margin of exposure (MOE), respective risk of cancer and hazard index (HI) of the monitored mycotoxins in children and adults. The higher mean levels were determined for DON (102.22 μg.Kg-1), followed by FB1 (85.00 μg.Kg-1). For the rests of mycotoxins the levels did not exceed 20 μg.Kg-1. The estimated AFB1 intake for the adults and children through rice consumption exceeds the safe levels established for both carriers and non-carriers of hepatitis B virus. The mean and median determined exposure levels of OTA, DON ZEN and FB1, were found lower than the Provisional Maximum Tolerable Daily Intake (PMTDI) value for both adults and children of Tehran that consuming domestic and imported rice. The mean HI for adults and median HI for adults and children were below one, and mean HI for children was close to one. All the mean, median and maximum MoE values were <10,000 in adults and children, indicating a risk due to AFB1 exposure through rice consumption in Tehran. In addition, the calculated mean cancer risk in adult and child populations of Tehran were 0.27 and 0.64 cases per year per 105 individuals, respectively, that shows population in Tehran could be at risk of cancer due to AFB1 exposure through rice consumption as calculated. So further studies are necessary for the monitoring mycotoxins in rice and different food products as well as estimating average dietary exposure and cumulative exposure assessment of mycotoxins for main foods in IR Iran.

Improving Learning Outcome for GSL (German as a Second Language) Students in a Blended Learning Cumulative Assessment Material Science Course

First year students especially with migration background and language deficiencies rate material science in mechanical engineering as one of the fundamental courses with high work load and necessity of language skills due to the descriptive nature of the course. Therefore a blended learning course structure using based on inverted classroom teaching scenarios was established. Heart of the self-study period are visualizing peer-to-peer lecture films supported by micro-lectures along with various online teaching materials. Although students with migration background generally scored lower in tests due to the lack of language skills improved learning outcomes are demonstrated in high quality class discussions and in overall understanding. This paper introduces the learning structure and graded activities, evaluates the course and compares results of native German-speaking students to those of students with migration background.

Principles of Individual Quantitative Assessment of the Effect of Drugs in Diabetes According to the Akabane Test

Background: Evaluation of drug action is a complex, expensive procedure that usually takes several years and is performed on a large group of subjects. However, as a result, this does not exclude the possibility that at the individual level, the positive effect of the drug will be minimal, and the side effects will be very large. A study on the example of the action of insulin in diabetes is devoted to the creation of a system of metrological assessment of the action of a drug at an individual level, including an assessment of its effectiveness, risks, optimal dose and time of administration. Methods: In the clinic of endocrinology, Akabane tests were performed on 225 patients, including 120 women and 105 men with type 1 and type 2 diabetes (T1D and T2D) at different times after injecting various doses of insulin for short and longactions, including in the dynamics of observation. Results: During the monitoring of patients with diabetes, it was found that under the influence of diabetes and various other diseases, asymmetry occurs in the indicators of certain acupuncture channels, and the optimal individually effective drug leads to the restoration of their symmetry. Based on this principle, it is proposed to evaluate the effect of a drug at an individual level through the coefficients of asymmetry and adhesion, which makes it possible to evaluate the effectiveness of a drug on new physical principles. Conclusion: The use of the proposed system allows for a quantitative cumulative assessment of both positive and negative effects of a medicine on various organs and systems at an individual level. Such an assessment can be carried out after 2-3 doses, assess the overall effectiveness of the drug; select its optimal dose and time of administration. This principle also allows you to create a family of specialized miniature devices for these purposes.

Abundance and Trends of Indo-Pacific Finless Porpoises (Neophocaena phocaenoides) in Hong Kong Waters, 1996–2019

The Indo-Pacific finless porpoise (Neophocaena phocaenoides) occurs year-round in waters of southern and eastern Hong Kong. The population biology of the population was studied in the late 1990s and early 2000s, but has not been examined recently. There are several threats facing the animals, and there has been recent concern about this species’ status, due to an increase in the number of strandings in Hong Kong. Line-transect surveys using medium-size vessels have been conducted for small cetaceans in most of Hong Kong’s waters since 1996. We examined the density and abundance of finless porpoises in this area, using a Bayesian hierarchical framework, consisting of a Markov process model used to describe population dynamics and a distance-sampling observation model that links the line-transect data to the latent biological process. Time-series analyses for both dry- and wet-season data from 1996 to 2019 showed annual fluctuations in abundance indices, but no evidence of a significant long-term trend in finless porpoise abundance in Hong Kong. This indicates that the increase in strandings may be related to some factor other than changing population size of Hong Kong finless porpoises. In 2019, there were approximately 176 finless porpoises in Hong Kong’s waters in the dry season (winter/spring), the season of highest use. Highest densities (0.535 porpoises/km2) were recorded in South Lantau in the dry season. Based on the results of the current study, we recommend further survey work, improvements in data collection, possible tagging and molecular work to elucidate population structure, cumulative impact assessment, and the establishment of several marine parks for the conservation of finless porpoises in Hong Kong.

Combining seascape connectivity with cumulative impact assessment in support of ecosystem‐based marine spatial planning

Abstract Cumulative impact assessment (CIA) is a promising approach to guide marine spatial planning (MSP) and management. One limitation of CIA is the neglect of seascape connectivity, which may spread the impact of localized pressures to ambient areas, e.g. through lost dispersal and recruitment of organisms. We here, for the first time, incorporate seascape connectivity into a traditional CIA model using a connectivity matrix, exemplified by dispersal of propagules estimated through biophysical modelling. Two connectivity impacts are identified: the source impact represents downstream areas losing recruits because of reduced larval dispersal from sites affected by the pressure, and the sink impact represents loss of recruits originating from upstream areas prevented from settlement in the site affected by the local pressure. By including seascape connectivity in the Swedish MSP‐guiding CIA tool Symphony we demonstrate how to practically account for remote effects of local environmental impact. Our example on blue mussel shows how reducing mussel fitness in a given area may have impacts on mussels far from the acting pressures. Overall, results indicate that connectivity impact for blue mussels plays a minor role in most areas, &lt;10% of the ordinary cumulative impact. However, in some smaller areas, e.g. on offshore banks and the Danish Straits, seascape connectivity may increase ordinary cumulative impact with 20%–30%. In an example of scenario‐based CIA analyses of MSP projections, we demonstrate how impacts of particular management actions, e.g. shipping rerouting and wind power developments, can be tracked far from the original area of influence. Depending on the dispersal ability of ecosystem components, a local pressure may impact a considerable area through seascape connectivity, transgressing management units and national borders. Although the mean connectivity impact may be modest for a single ecosystem component, the consideration of seascape connectivity across multiple ecosystem components may significantly alter the mapping of cumulative impact and the assessment of different MSP scenarios. Synthesis and applications. Our extension of Cumulative Impact Assessment offers a new method for mapping and practically integrating seascape connectivity with ecosystem‐based MSP and other spatial instruments for policy making, such as marine protected areas.

Specifics of perception of images of professions in advertising and public relations

The article сonsiders the peculiarities of perception of public relations and advertising specialists ‘ images by future representatives of these professions. The paper presents the results of a study to identify the Delta perception of images of specialties from students in the field of “Public Relations and Advertising”. For the cumulative assessment of image perception, the method of private semantic differential was applied, using the original scale of perception of the above-mentioned professions developed by the authors. As a result of the research, the distribution profiles of the average values of independent variables were analysed and the specifics of the perception of specialties was revealed. The obtained data can be used to correct these images, as well as formulate recommendations for their improvement.

Spatial distribution of cumulative impact on terrestrial ecosystem of the Fildes Peninsula, Antarctica

Antarctica, an area that is devoted to global peace and research, is being challenged by climate change, human activities, and pollution. There have been a number of studies concerning the state of the Antarctic ecological environment. However, a comprehensive and quantitative assessment of the impact of threats on the Antarctica ecological environment is still lacking. In this study, a cumulative impact assessment performed on the basis of expert judgement was used to estimate species-specific differences on the impact of seven threats: climate change, organic and nonorganic pollutants, station construction, power generation, oil spilling, and tourism. The terrestrial area of the Fildes Peninsula was divided into 103 cells using a raster grid of 0.25 km2, and cumulative impact assessment was applied to each cell. The analysis results indicated that cumulative impact scores (IC) ranged from 0 to 39.4, and the cumulative scores were divided into six categories ranging from very low impact (IC ≤ 7.08) to very high impact (IC > 20.54). More than half of the terrestrial area (57.3%) experienced “Very Low Impact” or “Low impact” scores. For single factors, climate change was identified as a rapidly growing and significant threat facing the terrestrial ecosystems of Antarctica. In addition, tourism had the greatest impact among all human activities. The analytical process and resulting map indicate that it is necessary to develop international policies on the restriction of tourist activity space and strength the organic pollutant controls for terrestrial ecosystem protection in the Fildes Peninsula, Antarctica.

Cumulative impact assessment in the brazilian pre-salt layer

Cumulative impact assessment in the brazilian pre-salt layer

Assessment of collective pressure in marine spatial planning: The current approach of EU Member States

We report on EU Member States' assessment of the collective pressure through cumulative impact assessments (CIA) in their implementation of the EU Maritime Spatial Planning Directive (MSPD). While the MSPD is ambiguous on how to approach the assessment of collective pressures, the present study is based on a preunderstanding that CIAs are required in marine spatial planning (MSP) for two reasons. Firstly, to address all relevant human activities and their pressures in order to comply with the concept of an ‘ecosystem-based approach’ and to ensure a good environmental status. Secondly, indirectly, to ensure that land-sea interactions are taken into account. Our results show few and inadequate examples of CIA in national MSP processes. Most MSP processes address collective pressure through CIA as part of a strategic environmental impact assessment. In conclusion, while the MSPD requires MSP to ensure collective pressure is kept below a level compatible with good environmental status, as part of an ecosystem-based approach, the study found few examples of ecosystem-based MSP.

Comparing Formative and Summative Cumulative Assessment: Two Field Experiments in an Applied University Engineering Course

Cumulative assessment refers to interspersed testing in which each assessment covers all previous content and the mean assessments’ grade weighs in for the final exam grade. The effect of cumulative assessment on motivation and performance might differ between summative (i.e. assessment grades weigh in for the final exam grade) and formative (i.e. the assessments grades do not weigh in) variants. The present study explored this hypothesis in two field experiments in a higher education course (Exp 1: n = 102; Exp 2: n = 88). Each experiment used a single-factor, between-subjects design with type of cumulative assessment (i.e. summative vs formative) as independent variable and motivation (Exp 1: self-study time, topic interest, perceived competence; Exp 2: preparation time and self-efficacy) and performance (Exp 2: cumulative assessment performance; Exp1 and Exp2: final exam grade and delayed test performance) as dependent variables. The results of both experiments reinforced each other. In the summative condition, the final exam grade was higher than in the formative condition. However, when the summative assessments were discarded from the final grade, this difference disappeared. Also, in both experiments, the conditions did not differ on motivation measures. Theoretical and practical implications of our findings are discussed.

The results of environmental and climate management systems implementation in the Ural gold mining industry (by the example of Gold of Northern Urals CJSC)

Introduction. The article evaluates the results of modern implementation of environmental and climate management systems in a gold mining organization. A SWOT analysis was carried out and recommendations were developed for adjusting and clarifying the content of the main management areas. As an information base, only public information resources and information provided by the organization in the course of interaction during educational program implementation were used Research aim is to assess the implementation of environmental and climate management systems in the Ural gold mining industry Methodology. The paper analyzes and evaluates environmental and climate management systems based on the use of SWOT analysis tools and geographic assessment of spatial and temporal changes. The spatial risks of safe ecological development of the organization are systematized, taking into account the immediate geographical environment. Results. A set of measures has been developed to correct and change the main management decisions of the environmental and climate management systems of the Ural gold mining organization. Conclusions. A satisfactory cumulative assessment of the results of environmental and climate management systems implementation in the organization is given; a set of measures has been developed that, in general, can be used in the regional industry; critical conceptual comments were formulated on the content of the current management KPIs.

A blueprint for securing Brazil's marine biodiversity and supporting the achievement of global conservation goals

AbstractAimAs a step towards providing support for an ecological approach to strengthening marine protected areas (MPAs) and meeting international commitments, this study combines cumulative impact assessment and conservation planning approach to undertake a large‐scale spatial prioritization.LocationExclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of Brazil, Southwest Atlantic Ocean.MethodsWe developed a prioritization approach to protecting different habitat types, threatened species ranges and ecological connectivity, while also mitigating the impacts of multiple threats on biodiversity. When identifying priorities for conservation, we accounted for the co‐occurrence of 24 human threats and the distribution of 161 marine habitats and 143 threatened species, as well as their associated vulnerabilities. Additionally, we compared our conservation priorities with MPAs proposed by local stakeholders.ResultsWe show that impacts to habitats and species are widespread and identify hot spots of cumulative impacts on inshore and offshore areas. Industrial fisheries, climate change and land‐based activities were the most severe threats to biodiversity. The highest priorities were mostly found towards the coast due to the high cumulative impacts found in nearshore areas. As expected, our systematic approach showed a better performance on selecting priority sites when compared to the MPAs proposed by local stakeholders without a typical conservation planning exercise, increasing the existing coverage of MPAs by only 7.9%. However, we found that proposed MPAs still provide some opportunities to protect areas facing high levels of threats.Main conclusionsThe study presents a blueprint of how to embrace a comprehensive ecological approach when identifying strategic priorities for conservation. We advocate protecting these crucial areas from degradation in emerging conservation efforts is key to maintain their biodiversity value.

Winner effects and switching assessment strategies facilitate fast and frugal decisions in territorial contests

Animals compete in contests over limited resources, and contestants with greater fighting ability, or resource-holding potential (RHP), typically win contests. Contest strategies have evolved to balance contest costs with the benefit of winning resources. Sometimes, contestants decide to leave by estimating their opponent's relative RHP. This strategy (mutual assessment) is cost-effective because it allows weaker opponents to leave contests against formidable opponents before accruing higher costs. However, acquiring reliable information can be costly. Here, we showed that in snapping shrimp ( Alpheus angulosus ) contests, contestants assessed relative RHP quickly and cost-effectively by assessing their opponent's recent contest success. By staging 26 contests between randomly matched individuals and 24 contests between RHP-matched individuals, we determined that snapping shrimp assessed their opponent's RHP during initial contest phases but no longer assessed relative RHP during escalated phases. Then, after staging 24 contests between individuals with contest experience the day prior, we found that snapping shrimp integrated RHP and recent contest success to make contest decisions. This strategy facilitated fast and accurate judgments when the recent winner was also larger but often resulted in the larger individual retreating when facing a small recent winner. Notably, these systematic biases were corrected when RHP differences were stark. Taken together, our findings demonstrate that by assessing recent contest success early in a contest, snapping shrimp can avoid risky contests. Furthermore, by integrating recent contest success with direct observations of RHP, contestants avoid losing contests prematurely. Similar assessment strategies may be widespread, because they circumvent risky contests while minimizing premature defeats from weaker recent winners. • Snapping shrimp switched from mutual assessment to cumulative assessment. • Snapping shrimp assessed their opponent's recent contest success. • Winner effects facilitated early and accurate contest decisions.

Advancing Global Ecological Modeling Capabilities to Simulate Future Trajectories of Change in Marine Ecosystems

Considerable effort is being deployed to predict the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the ocean's biophysical environment, biodiversity, and natural resources to better understand how marine ecosystems and provided services to humans are likely to change and explore alternative pathways and options. We present an updated version of EcoOcean (v2), a spatial-temporal ecosystem modeling complex of the global ocean that spans food-web dynamics from primary producers to top predators. Advancements include an enhanced ability to reproduce spatial-temporal ecosystem dynamics by linking species productivity, distributions, and trophic interactions to the impacts of climate change and worldwide fisheries. The updated modeling platform is used to simulate past and future scenarios of change, where we quantify the impacts of alternative configurations of the ecological model, responses to climate-change scenarios, and the additional impacts of fishing. Climate-change scenarios are obtained from two Earth-System Models (ESMs, GFDL-ESM2M, and IPSL-CMA5-LR) and two contrasting emission pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5) for historical (1950–2005) and future (2006–2100) periods. Standardized ecological indicators and biomasses of selected species groups are used to compare simulations. Results show how future ecological trajectories are sensitive to alternative configurations of EcoOcean, and yield moderate differences when looking at ecological indicators and larger differences for biomasses of species groups. Ecological trajectories are also sensitive to environmental drivers from alternative ESM outputs and RCPs, and show spatial variability and more severe changes when IPSL and RCP 8.5 are used. Under a non-fishing configuration, larger organisms show decreasing trends, while smaller organisms show mixed or increasing results. Fishing intensifies the negative effects predicted by climate change, again stronger under IPSL and RCP 8.5, which results in stronger biomass declines for species already losing under climate change, or dampened positive impacts for those increasing. Several species groups that win under climate change become losers under combined impacts, while only a few (small benthopelagic fish and cephalopods) species are projected to show positive biomass changes under cumulative impacts. EcoOcean v2 can contribute to the quantification of cumulative impact assessments of multiple stressors and of plausible ocean-based solutions to prevent, mitigate and adapt to global change.