Cross-sectional Time-series Analysis Research Articles

Effects of corruption and income inequality on the reported number of COVID-19 cases and deaths: Evidence from a time series cross-sectional data analysis.

Corruption-income inequality nexus is likely to affect the healthcare services, which in turn affect a country's ability to suppress an epidemic. Widespread corruption in public sectors may influence the data inventory practices to control the recording and sharing of official statistics to avoid political disturbance or social problems caused by an epidemic. This empirical study examines the effects of income inequality, data inventory, and universal healthcare coverage on cross-country variation in reported numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the presence of corruption in public sectors. Daily numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths of selected 29 countries are integrated for the first 120 days of the epidemic in each country. COVID-19 dataset is then integrated with a dataset of different indices. Fixed effect panel model is applied to explore the effects of corruption perception, income inequality, open data inventory practice, and universal health coverage on the daily numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths per million. Income inequality, corruption perception and open data inventory are found to significantly affect the number of confirmed cases and deaths. Countries with alarming income inequality are found to report 39.89 more COVID-19 cases per million, on average. Under a lower level of corruption, countries with lower level of open data inventory are expected to report 74.31 more COVID-19 cases but 1.43 less deaths per million. Given a higher level of corruption, countries with lower level of open data inventory are expected to report lower number of COVID-19 cases and deaths. Corruption demonstrates a significant influence on the size of the epidemic in terms of the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths. A country with higher level of corruption in public sector along with lower levels of open data inventory is expected to report lower number of COVID-19 cases and deaths.

Impact of the COVID-19 Controlled Drugs and Substances Act exemption on pharmacist prescribing of opioids, benzodiazepines and stimulants in Ontario: A cross-sectional time-series analysis.

Due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, Health Canada issued an exemption to the Controlled Drugs and Substances Act (CDSA) on March 19, 2020, enabling pharmacists to act as prescribers of controlled substances to support continuity of care. Our study investigates utilization of the CDSA exemption by Ontario pharmacists with the intent to inform policy on pharmacist scope of practice and to improve future patient outcomes. We conducted a time-series analysis of pharmacist-prescribed opioid, benzodiazepine and stimulant claims data using Ontario Narcotics Monitoring System (NMS) data between January 2019 and December 2021. We used ARIMA modelling to measure the change to these classes of claims and to opioid claims containing quantities greater than a 30-day supply. Postexemption, the average weekly number of pharmacist-prescribed opioid, benzodiazepine and stimulant claims rose by 146% (160 to 393 claims/week), 960% (49 to 515 claims/week) and 2150% (8 to 177 claims/week), respectively. There was a 2-week lag period between the time of announcement and the statistically significant increase in claims on April 5, 2020(p < 0.0001). The total number of claims for opioid quantities exceeding a 30-day supply decreased by 60%. Cumulative pharmacist-prescribed claims accounted for under 2% of the total NMS claims. Ontario pharmacists used the CDSA exemption but were prescribing at low rates. These findings suggest an effective change to pharmacy practice as the low rates show pharmacists used the exemption as a last line of defense. This may lead to further studies exploring treatment breaks during the COVID-19 pandemic and future changes to pharmacist scope to benefit patients.

Change-Point Detection and Regularization in Time Series Cross-Sectional Data Analysis

AbstractResearchers of time series cross-sectional data regularly face the change-point problem, which requires them to discern between significant parametric shifts that can be deemed structural changes and minor parametric shifts that must be considered noise. In this paper, we develop a general Bayesian method for change-point detection in high-dimensional data and present its application in the context of the fixed-effect model. Our proposed method, hidden Markov Bayesian bridge model, jointly estimates high-dimensional regime-specific parameters and hidden regime transitions in a unified way. We apply our method to Alvarez, Garrett, and Lange’s (1991, American Political Science Review 85, 539–556) study of the relationship between government partisanship and economic growth and Allee and Scalera’s (2012, International Organization 66, 243–276) study of membership effects in international organizations. In both applications, we found that the proposed method successfully identify substantively meaningful temporal heterogeneity in parameters of regression models.

Welfare state decommodification and population health.

A generous welfare state decommodifies social relations and frees citizens from relying excessively on markets. We argue that decommodification is associated with population health in two ways: directly, as it provides better social protection to households and indirectly, as it mitigates health-damaging labour market polarization and reduces the incidence of labour market risks. Using time-series cross-sectional quantitative analysis for 21 OECD countries from 1971 to 2010, we observe a negative relationship between decommodification and the age-standardized death rate. We then analyze three correlates of decommodification—income redistribution, labour market polarization and the reduction of labour market risk incidence—and find that only the latter two are associated with population health. Higher labour market polarization, measured by the share of market income allocated to the richest decile relative to the share of the poorest decile, is associated with a higher death rate. A new measure of risk reduction, the degree to which the welfare state reduces the prevalence of large income losses, is also associated with lower death rates, especially for men. Welfare state decommodification thus contributes to population health directly, and indirectly, via the attenuation of labour market polarization and the mitigation of labour market risks.

Democracy, Labor’s Share of Income, and Labor Supply: A Time-Series Cross-Sectional Analysis

This paper examines democracy’s impact on the labor share of income: the share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) dedicated to wages, salaries, and benefits. I hypothesize democratic regimes afford labor the opportunity to increase its share of national income. While previous empirical work finds cross-sectional evidence for the hypothesis, this paper employs a time-series cross-sectional analysis using data for 119 countries between 1950 and 2017, indicating the labor share of income is higher in democratic countries. The estimates are robust to different specifications of the statistical model. This paper also examines a potential causal mechanism that links democracy to a higher labor share through the supply of labor (the average number of hours worked in the economy). The relationship between democracy and the supply of labor lends additional evidence to my hypothesis. In a world characterized by diverging democracy, the results imply the path countries choose between democracy and dictatorship matters.

The untold story of the modernization thesis: Urbanization and corruption in developing countries

How does urbanization affect corruption? Modernization theory suggests a negative relationship. Existing empirical studies tend to confirm this hypothesis, showing that urbanization is inversely associated with corruption. In this paper, I provide an alternative perspective on corruption, focusing especially on Sub-Saharan Africa. I argue that the modernization process, ironically, can exacerbate rather than ameliorate corruption. Urbanization is conducive to corruption in an African context because urbanization is characterized by a more individualistic lifestyle reducing thus the cost of being corrupt as there are fewer social sanctions and peer pressure compared to community-based traditional life. A time-series cross-sectional analysis (1972−2015) shows across several regression models and estimators that urbanization is directly associated with corruption in a sample of African countries, but it has mixed effects on a global sample. Re-conceptualizing how urbanization shapes political culture in Africa is important for a continent that is rapidly urbanizing, working to control corruption, and in need of further development.

Increasing implicit rationing of care in nursing homes: A time-series cross-sectional analysis

BackgroundImplicit rationing of nursing care is a socio-ecological problem where care workers, due to lack of resources, have to leave necessary nursing care activities undone. Cross-sectional studies on implicit rationing of nursing home care revealed associations with organizational and work environment characteristics. However, little is known on how implicit rationing of nursing care varies over time in nursing homes. ObjectiveThis study's purpose was to describe changes in levels and patterns of implicit rationing of nursing care in Swiss nursing homes over time, while accounting for key explanatory factors related to organizational, work environment, and individual characteristics. DesignTime-series cross-sectional analysis. SettingNursing homes in Switzerland. ParticipantsA convenience sample of 47 nursing homes and 3269 care workers from all educational levels participating in two multicenter cross-sectional studies (the Swiss Nursing Home Human Resources Project) conducted in 2013 and 2018. MethodsTo quantify implicit rationing of nursing care, care workers' data were collected via the nursing home version of the Basel Extent of Rationing of Nursing Care instrument. To control for leadership ability, staffing and resource adequacy, we used the Nursing Work Index–Practice Environment Scale. Objective measures including turnover, staffing and skill mix levels were aggregated at the nursing home level. Our analyses included multiple linear mixed models, using time as a fixed effect and nursing home as a random effect. ResultsWe found overall increases of rationing of care activities over the five-year period studied, with documentation and social activities most rationed at both measurement points (overall coefficients varied between 0.11 and 0.23, as well as the 95%-confidence intervals between 0.05 and 0.30). Moreover, a considerable increase in rationing of activities of daily living (coefficient of 0.47 in 2013 and 0.63 in 2018) was observed. ConclusionsAlongside long-term deterioration of staff resources, increases in rationing of nursing care are a worrying development, particularly given their potential negative impacts both on residents and on care workers. To assess nursing home care quality and to determine adequate staffing levels and skill mixes, policy makers and nursing home managers should consider regular monitoring of rationing of nursing care. Tweetable abstractTime-series cross-sectional analysis reveals increasing rationing of nursing care activities in Swiss nursing homes from 2013 to 2018.

Life Expectancy for White, Black, and Hispanic Race/Ethnicity in U.S. States: Trends and Disparities, 1990 to 2019.

Life expectancy (LE) differences within and between states by race/ethnicity have not been examined. To estimate LE for selected race/ethnicity groups in states from 1990 to 2019. Cross-sectional time-series analysis. United States. Deidentified death records and Census data were used to construct regression models with smoothed time series of mortality from 1990 to 2019. LE at birth, by sex and year, for subgroups of people reporting Hispanic, non-Hispanic Black, or non-Hispanic White race/ethnicity. Disparities in LE across states were 8.0 years for females and 12.2 years for males in 1990 and 7.9 years for females and 7.8 years for males in 2019. When race/ethnicity groups were accounted for, disparities across states were 20.7 years for females and 24.5 years for males in 1990, decreasing to 18.5 years for females and 23.7 years for males in 2019. Disparities across states increased within each race/ethnicity group between 1990 and 2019, with the largest increase for non-Hispanic White males and the smallest for Hispanic females. The disparity between race/ethnicity groups within states decreased for most of the 23 states with estimates for all 3 groups but increased for females in 7 states and males in 5 states. Because of small sample size, LE was not estimated for 37 of 153 state-race/ethnicity groups. Disparity in LE across states was greater when race/ethnicity groups were considered. Disparities across all state-race/ethnicity groups in general have decreased over the past 3 decades. Within each race/ethnicity group, disparities across states have increased. Although racial/ethnic disparities decreased in most of the 23 states for which LE was estimated for all 3 groups, they increased for females in 7 states and males in 5 states. National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

The grey digital divide and welfare state regimes: a comparative study of European countries

PurposeTechnology access, digital skills, and digital services are increasingly prerequisites for public life and accessing public services. The digital divide in contemporary societies matters for efforts to digitalize the welfare state. Research has already mapped individual determinants of digital exclusion and the existence of an age-related digital divide. However, far less attention has been paid to variations in digital inclusion between countries and to their potential explanations related to political systems. This study explores the influence of variations in welfare regimes on the digital divide among seniors (aged 65+) in Europe.Design/methodology/approachThis article presents time-series cross-sectional analyses of the relationship between welfare state regimes and digital inclusion among seniors in European countries. The analyses are based on data from Eurostat, the World Bank, and the UN E-Government Survey.FindingsThe authors find extensive variation in the digital inclusion of citizens between welfare regimes and argue that considering regime differences improves the understanding of these variations. The findings indicate that the age-related digital divide seems to be least evident in countries with more universalistic welfare regimes and most evident in countries where seniors rely more on their families.Originality/valueThis is the first comparative study of the association between welfare state regimes and digital inclusion among seniors.

COVID-19 and the prevalence of drug shortages in Canada: a cross-sectional time-series analysis from April 2017 to April 2022.

Background:In March 2020, the Government of Canada introduced measures to reduce intensifying shortages of prescription drugs during the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. We sought to assess the extent to which a decline in drug shortages was observed in the months after this policy change.Methods:Our data source was the Drug Shortages Canada Database, which reports shortages by drug product, including shortage start and duration. Using a cross-sectional design, we tracked shortage rates of drug products using a 30-day moving average from Apr. 15, 2017, to Apr. 1, 2022. We used autoregressive integrated moving average modelling with a ramp function to determine the significance of trend changes after policy implementation.Results:We found that of the 13 329 drug products at risk for shortage, 44.7% (n = 5953) had at least 1 shortage event in the past 5 years. Average daily shortage prevalence rates rose from 901 in April 2017 to a peak of 2345 by April 2020. Significant declines (p = 0.02) ensued shortly thereafter, dropping to a rate of 1611 shortages by the end of the first year after policy implementation. However, we did not observe a significant reduction in shortage rates in the second year (p = 0.2), with rates plateauing below 1500 and then rising back above 1600 by the end of March 2022.Interpretation:Drug shortages are common in Canada, including during the initial months of the COVID-19 pandemic. We observed substantial improvements after the implementation of the new measures, but gains appear to have plateaued. Continued vigilance is needed to sustain improvements.

Ownership Identity and Role of Nonprofit and For-Profit Hospitals

Purpose: This study examined whether nonprofit hospitals reflect social roles as well as values and satisfy their financial responsibilities compared with for-profit hospitals. Design/methodology/approach: Using panel data from the Hospital Financial and Utilization Information Data System in Florida from 2011 to 2017, this study employed a cross-sectional time-series analysis to examine the effect of hospital ownership on uncompensated care, charity care, technical efficiency, and profit margin. Findings: Compared to for-profit hospitals, nonprofit hospitals better fulfill a social role and provide more public value by providing more uncompensated care and charity care. For-profit hospitals, however, are financially more efficient than nonprofit hospitals in terms of maximizing profit margins. When comparing hospital technical efficiency, there is no statistically significant difference between nonprofit and for-profit hospitals. As expected, nonprofit hospitals better fulfill social roles but for-profit hospitals better perform financially. Research limitations/implications: This study revealed differences in fulfilling social roles and satisfying financial responsibilities between nonprofit and for-profit hospitals. To have a longer sustainability, as the provision of health care services includes both social and financial aspects, hospitals should emphasize not just either social or financial aspect only but both aspects at the same time. Future studies should extend this research to examine the conditions of normative-oriented commitments and motivations to see how they affect various hospital identity and role in different contexts. Also, as this study employed only one state in the U.S., it is important to carefully generalize findings in this study. Originality/value: This study proposes a theory surrounding the role and function of nonprofit organizations based on a dual bottom approach, reflecting the dimensions of nonprofits characteristics and identity.

STADL Up! The Spatiotemporal Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model for TSCS Data Analysis

Time-series cross-section (TSCS) data are prevalent in political science, yet many distinct challenges presented by TSCS data remain underaddressed. We focus on how dependence in both space and time complicates estimating either spatial or temporal dependence, dynamics, and effects. Little is known about how modeling one of temporal or cross-sectional dependence well while neglecting the other affects results in TSCS analysis. We demonstrate analytically and through simulations how misspecification of either temporal or spatial dependence inflates estimates of the other dimension’s dependence and thereby induces biased estimates and tests of other covariate effects. Therefore, we recommend the spatiotemporal autoregressive distributed lag (STADL) model with distributed lags in both space and time as an effective general starting point for TSCS model specification. We illustrate with two example reanalyses and provide R code to facilitate researchers’ implementation—from automation of common spatial-weights matrices (W) through estimated spatiotemporal effects/response calculations—for their own TSCS analyses.

Potential conservation gains from improved protected area management in the Brazilian Amazon

Protected areas (PAs) are important policy instruments for forest conservation, but it is unclear if improved management can increase PA effectiveness. In Brazil, formal management plans are required to be in place shortly after the creation of a PA. This requirement is rarely enforced and, as a result, several PAs undergo many years without approved plans. We take advantage of this variation among PAs to study the impact of management plans on deforestation. We provide estimates from two quasi-experimental evaluation approaches based on the generalization of the difference-in-differences estimator: (1) matching-based methods for time-series cross-sectional data analysis and (2) the generalized synthetic control (GSC) method. We find weak, yet generally consistent, evidence across these two methods suggesting that PAs with approved management plans protect forests more effectively over time. Significant impact estimates from the matching-based approach ranged more widely than the GSC method (0.01%–0.09% versus 0.04%–0.05% of avoided deforestation per year, respectively). The effect size of these impacts is relatively substantial given that the average annual forest loss from our PA sample was 0.07% (±0.40%). To the extent that PAs with approved management plans reflect actual differences in PA management quality, our findings suggest that investments in improving PA management could result in positive conservation gains over time.

Global consumption of antimicrobials: impact of the WHO Global Action Plan on Antimicrobial Resistance and 2019 coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19).

Little is known about the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on antimicrobial consumption worldwide. To describe the impact of the WHO Global Action Plan on Antimicrobial Resistance (GAP-AMR) on antimicrobial consumption pre-pandemic and to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on antimicrobial consumption worldwide. A cross-sectional time-series analysis using a dataset of monthly purchases of antimicrobials (antibiotics, antivirals and antifungals) from August 2014 to August 2020. Antimicrobial consumption per 1000 population was assessed pre-pandemic by economic development status using linear regression models. Interventional autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models tested for significant changes with pandemic declaration (March 2020) and during its first stage from April to August 2020, worldwide and by country development status. Prior to the pandemic, antimicrobial consumption decreased worldwide, with a greater apparent decrease in developed versus developing countries (-8.4%, P = 0.020 versus -1.2%, P = 0.660). Relative to 2019, antimicrobial consumption increased by 11.2%, P < 0.001 in March 2020. The greatest increase was for antivirals in both developed and developing countries (48.2%, P < 0.001; 110.0%, P < 0.001) followed by antibiotics (6.9%, P < 0.001; 5.9%, P = 0.003). From April to August 2020, antimicrobial consumption decreased worldwide by 18.7% (P < 0.001) compared with the previous year. Specifically, antibiotic consumption significantly decreased in both developed and developing countries (-28.0%, P < 0.001; -16.8%, P < 0.001). The global decrease in antimicrobial consumption pre-pandemic suggests a positive impact of the WHO GAP-AMR. During the pandemic, an initial increase in antimicrobial consumption was followed by a decrease worldwide. AMR plans should specify measures to ensure full implementation of AMR efforts during health crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

Comparisons of Insulin Spending and Price Between Canada and the United States

Insulin prices have been a hot topic in the United States, where there is a lack of price regulation on drugs, and there have been reports of Americans crossing the border to purchase insulin in Canada at much lower prices. We conducted a cross-sectional time-series analysis comparing insulin spending using IQVIA (Durham, North Carolina, USA) data on aggregate insulin prescription volumes dispensed in the United States and Canada from January 2016 to April 2019 to quantify insulin spending and pricing differences between the countries. We obtained data on diabetes rates from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Statistics Canada. The primary outcome of this study was the difference in total annual insulin spending and spending per insulin user between the United States and Canada. We also examined spending on the top 5 most used insulins per year in the United States and the percentage change of spending on insulin products from January 2016 to April 2019. In 2018, the US spent $28 billion (USD) on insulin compared with $484 million in Canada. The average American insulin user spent $3490 on insulin in 2018 compared with $725 among Canadians. Over the study period, the average cost per unit of insulin in the United States increased by 10.3% compared with only 0.01% in Canada. These findings demonstrate that the United States spent considerably more on insulin than Canada, and prices continue to increase. Implementing national legislation for drug pricing regulations using reference pricing could stabilize and potentially decrease insulin prices in the United States.

The global impact of COVID-19 on drug purchases: A cross-sectional time series analysis

BackgroundThe drug supply chain is global and at risk of disruption and subsequent drug shortages, especially during unanticipated events. ObjectiveOur objective was to determine the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on drug purchases overall, by class, and for specific countries. MethodsA cross-sectional time series analysis of country-level drug purchase data from August 2014 to August 2020 from IQVIA MIDAS was conducted. Standardized units per 100 population and percentage increase in units purchased were assessed from 68 countries and jurisdictions in March 2020 (when the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic). Analyses were compared by United Nations development status and drug class. Autoregressive integrated moving average models tested the significance of changes in purchasing trends. ResultsBefore COVID-19, standardized medication units per 100 population ranged from 3990 to 4760 monthly. In March 2020, there was a global 15% increase in units of drugs purchased to 5309.3 units per 100 population compared with the previous year; the increase was greater in developed countries (18.5%; P < 0.001) than in developing countries (12.8%; P < 0.0001). After the increase in March 2020, there was a correction in the global purchase rate decreasing by 4.7% (April to August 2020 rate, 21,334.6/100 population; P < 0.001). Globally, we observed high purchasing rates and large changes for respiratory medicines such as inhalers and systemic adrenergic drugs (March 2020 rate, 892.7/100 population; change from 2019, 28.5%; P < 0.001). Purchases for topical dermatologic products also increased substantially (42.2%), although at lower absolute rates (610.0/100 population in March 2020; P < 0.0001). Interestingly, purchases for systemic anti-infective agents (including antiviral drugs) increased in developing countries (11.3%; P < 0.001), but decreased in developed countries (1.0%; P = 0.06). ConclusionWe observed evidence of global drug stockpiling in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, especially among developed countries. Actions toward equitable distribution of medicines through a resilient drug supply chain should be taken to increase global response to future unanticipated events, such as pandemics.

Determinants of health and education equality: evidence from post-Soviet states

PurposeThis article examines the determinants of social equality in the education and healthcare sectors in the 15 post-Soviet states. Focussing on regime type and civil society organisations (CSOs), it argues that countries where liberal principles of democracy are achieved or have a stronger civil society deliver a more equitable social policy.Design/methodology/approachThe empirical analysis rests upon a time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) analysis from 1992 to 2019. Data are collected from the Quality of Government (QoG) Dataset 2020 and the Variates of Democracy (V-DEM) Dataset 2020.FindingsThe findings demonstrate that while regime type only partially accounts for social equality, as electoral autocracies do not have more equitable social policy than close regime types and democracy weakly explains equality levels, the strength of CSOs is associated with more equality.Originality/valueThe article challenges dominant approaches that consider electoral democracy to be related to more equal social policy and demonstrates that de-facto free and fair elections do not impinge on social equality, while the strength of liberal and civil liberties and CSOs correlate with more equitable social policy.

Mapping global trends in vaccine sales before and during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: a cross-sectional time-series analysis

BackgroundWhile the COVID-19 pandemic may have substantially hindered the provision of routine immunisation services worldwide, we have little data on the impact of the pandemic on vaccine supply chains.MethodsWe used...

On the Roles of Complexity and Symmetry in Cued Tapping of Well-formed Complex Rhythms

Production of relatively few rhythms with non-isochronous beats has been studied. So we assess reproduction of most well-formed looped rhythms comprising K=2-11 cues (a uniform piano tone, indicating where participants should tap) and N=3-13 isochronous pulses (a uniform cymbal). Each rhythm had two different cue interonset intervals. We expected that many of the rhythms would be difficult to tap, because of ambiguous non-isochronous beats and syncopations, and that complexity and asymmetry would predict performance. 111 participants tapped 91 rhythms each heard over 129 pulses, starting as soon as they could. Whereas tap-cue concordance in prior studies was generally &amp;gt;&amp;gt; 90%, here only 52.2% of cues received a temporally congruent tap, and only 63% of taps coincided with a cue. Only −2 ms mean tap asynchrony was observed (whereas for non-musicians this value is usually c. −50 ms). Performances improved as rhythms progressed and were repeated, but precision varied substantially between participants and rhythms. Performances were autoregressive and mixed effects cross-sectional time series analyses retaining the integrity of all the individual time series revealed that performance worsened as complexity features K, N, and cue inter-onset interval entropy increased. Performance worsened with increasing R, the Long: short (L: s) cue interval ratio of each rhythm (indexing both complexity and asymmetry). Rhythm evenness and balance, and whether N was divisible by 2 or 3, were not useful predictors. Tap velocities positively predicted cue fulfilment. Our data indicate that study of a greater diversity of rhythms can broaden our impression of rhythm cognition.

Revisiting the nexus of Internet and political participation: a longitudinal study of environmental petition in China

ABSTRACT The political implications of the Internet remain as a long-debated question. To clarify this puzzle, this study draws on insights from political opportunity structure theory and three prompts for political action in the digital media environment to examine how the development of the Internet is related to environmental petition, a type of citizen-initiated political activity in the state realm in China. Using government statistics from multiple sources, we conducted time-series cross-sectional analyses to estimate the impacts of Internet penetration on environmental petition in China’s 31 provinces over a 13-year period (2003–2015). The findings show that Internet penetration had a long-term negative effect on visit petition but a positive one on letter petition. Implications of the findings and future research directions are discussed.